Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

People without a mind are still asking if it is the right time to buy Bitcoin.

....
Don't put it in your pocket, sir!
....

That lil story had a nice twist in the end.

meanwhile back to BTC 62k looks much better than 59k

Will it hold, though? 

We had a recovery to nearly $83k in early May, and we have been trickling down and stagnant ever since.. so there can be questions regarding the extent to which some cushion can be put between the current price and the so far local low that was $57,735 from just 4-ish days ago.

Frequently, less liquidity during holidays.. but that still does not necessarily tell us price direction, if any kind of movement or even breaking out might end up occurring in one direction or another.

Probably many of us have had enough of the dancing below the 200-WMA... even though many times the process has to work itself out.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

[edited out]

Dude. Calm down. I don't have the price always on my smartwatch's screen. I have to select it in the menu. Time, date, heart rate and battery charge are displayed, if i tap the display or turn my wrist. I don't want to expose my love for BTC to the public because of reasons.
But it's way more comfortable this way, compared to wrestling out my smartphone of my trousers pocket, unlocking it, opening the chart view app (and so on, i suppose you are familiar with that kind of process).

I have not considered viewing the price of bitcoin on my arm to have had been any major problem or even threat to my privacy in recent times.
Perhaps I am not paranoid enough?

Nonono, dude was thinking that my watch is constantly displaying (like) realtime BTC price in always-on-mode, so everybody could see it on my wrist, always. But it's not the case here.
Well, the app can only update the price if the watch is connected to my smartphone. No biggie.

I have not been using the "always on" feature, and it seems that my watch only shows what is on its face when I turn my wrist inward.

Of course, I have around 8 different things on my watch, including the bitcoin price and also the time, but also it does not always update right away, so sometimes, I have to manually click on the bitcoin display to cause it to update, so then that would be more privacy revealing, to the extent that anyone might be viewing my watch while I am viewing it., but they would have to be relatively close to me and kind of at a similar angle to me, to the extent that anyone cares or that they know the difference between bitcoin and some other market that I could be looking at.

Another thing might be who is your potential threat, and so if I might be around people who I might not want to know what I am looking at, then I might be more guarded, but even if I am out and about for many hours, I might want to get a quickie glance at the BTC price, especially if it might be in some kind of an active status.  I recall sometimes being in a car, and then if I am in the front seat and I have my phone in some kind of a heads-up display, then anyone in the back could be looking at whatever screens I am looking at, yet maybe the passenger-side person in the front would not be able to see, unless they would be purposefully leaning over to the driver's side to be able to see.  

Some people are more snoopy than others too.  I have had some people around me who are not very respectful to privacy, so that can be more annoying and incentivize more guarded ways of looking at data, whether on the phone or on the watch.  The phone tends to be a more detailed interface, and the watch tends to be easier to keep private if the "always on" display is not on.

Sometimes your "enemies" are closer than you think...
I usually mount my smartphone at convenient height besides the steering wheel in my car, and i always have to take care that i do not enter the unlock pin code but use the fingerprint reader, because kids are watching from the back seats, and they try to outsmart me all the time, to be able to unlock parental control features on their smartphones, which are managed on mine. Once, one of them was successful with face recognition unlock while i took a little nap on the couch.  
Well, they don't know how deep i was in computer security when i was younger (i'm sure i told some of the stories here in the past), so they have a hard time hacking my electronic devices, for sure, but occasionally they are trying hard. If i'm lucky, they even tell me how their schoolmates hacked their parents' phones, so i can take precautions against those "hacks".  My level of caution is about one step back from paranoia mode, with that autistic flavor. Hard to beat. I got used to wipe my phone screen regularly, not to leave traces from repeatedly typing in the unlock pin code. It became a habit from the time when unlock gestures were a thing. When i have to enter passwords or codes in public places, i always take a look behind me, check for cameras (and eyes) that could spy on me.
Not quite paranoid, but close, i guess.

Recently got another chunk before the latest spike. It's all limit buys so I don't get either swayed by feeling or screwed by bad guys on exchanges. I've got more buy orders waiting if she goes down. If she doesn't, I'm good as it is.

#metoo

4. Ireland's CAB Recovers Third Bitcoin Wallet from Cannabis Dealer
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/irelands-cab-cracks-third-bitcoin-wallet-recovers-31-million-from-cannabis-grower
Published: 2026-07-03
Summary: Ireland's Criminal Assets Bureau accessed a third dormant Bitcoin wallet tied to convicted cannabis grower Clifton Collins, adding 500 BTC to its 2026 recovery total. The bureau now holds 1,500 BTC from the case, with the latest tranche valued at approximately $30.9 million at current prices near $61,749. Europol provided the technical support and decryption resources that enabled the breach of the decade-dormant wallet. About 4,500 BTC, worth roughly $275 million, remains locked in nine unaccessed wallets that authorities continue to pursue. The recovered coins have moved to institutional custody ahead of liquidation, dwarfing the bureau's previous decade of cryptocurrency sales.

1,500 coins,3 wallets cracked 4,500 Bitcoin Remain Locked

For traders watching from the sidelines, the case is a reminder that coins written off as permanently lost can still surface years later, particularly when a government agency has the wallet under legal control and the resources to keep trying.

quote from the linked article:

CAB has not disclosed the technical method behind the wallet access, standard practice during an active case. Officials credit Europol with hosting meetings in The Hague and supplying the decryption resources that made the breach possible.

Made me wonder which those resources might be???

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

OT: Neil the seal...lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNPRDQZCDj0

...is he having fun or what?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

quote from the linked article:

CAB has not disclosed the technical method behind the wallet access, standard practice during an active case. Officials credit Europol with hosting meetings in The Hague and supplying the decryption resources that made the breach possible.

Made me wonder which those resources might be???

Computing power or funds for the computing power and technical expertise, it depends on how the keys were stored. If they are stored correctly, no decryption efforts can unlock them in this lifetime not even if you throw at it all the computing power of the planet.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

quote from the linked article:

CAB has not disclosed the technical method behind the wallet access, standard practice during an active case. Officials credit Europol with hosting meetings in The Hague and supplying the decryption resources that made the breach possible.

Made me wonder which those resources might be???

Computing power or funds for the computing power and technical expertise, it depends on how the keys were stored. If they are stored correctly, no decryption efforts can unlock them in this lifetime not even if you throw at it all the computing power of the planet.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

quote from the linked article:

CAB has not disclosed the technical method behind the wallet access, standard practice during an active case. Officials credit Europol with hosting meetings in The Hague and supplying the decryption resources that made the breach possible.

Made me wonder which those resources might be???

Computing power or funds for the computing power and technical expertise, it depends on how the keys were stored. If they are stored correctly, no decryption efforts can unlock them in this lifetime not even if you throw at it all the computing power of the planet.

Does not apply in a real democracy and legally sound country though, this is a legal process not criminals beating up other criminals.  Impossible with real encryption.

Anyway you can set it up in a way that you can't unlock it either under these conditions, so they may beat you to death but they will not be able to access it. Have you heard of something called multi signature or shamir's sharding? 

[nutildah]

It is now a $10 Dollar Wrench Attack to account for inflation.

Today's $5 wrench is too small. You could only annoy somebody to death with it.

[Hueristic]

^-- LOL rite!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's News Digest - 2026-07-03 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-07-03 09:02 PM CT

Bitcoin reclaimed $62,400 on Friday after a single day of ETF inflows reversed a 10-day outflow streak, though the market remains trapped in Extreme Fear. The $221 million net gain on July 3 signals a potential inflection point, but year-to-date outflows of $5.4 billion suggest institutional conviction has not fully returned. The short-term trend is upward, yet the prevailing sentiment of 22 on the Fear & Greed index confirms participants are still bracing for further downside.

Outlook: The market will likely test whether this ETF inflow is a structural shift or merely a liquidity bounce. Investors should watch for a follow-through in daily ETF flows and monitor MicroStrategy's upcoming SEC filings to clarify if recent on-chain movements represent tactical sales or custody adjustments.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $62,429.00 (+1.45%).

The Fear & Greed Index sits at 22, reflecting extreme fear that contradicts the recent price stability. Exchange outflows remain elevated, which suggests that holders are moving coins to cold storage rather than preparing to sell. This combination of weak sentiment and reduced selling urgency may indicate that the market is consolidating rather than capitulating. If the current price action holds above $60,000, the asset could continue to trade in a range-bound pattern while institutions evaluate their next moves.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Continues (55%): triggers: price stays between $60,000 and $65,000; Fear & Greed remains below 30; exchange outflows persist. Invalidation: a daily close below $58,500 or a spike in exchange inflows.
- Institutional Accumulation (30%): triggers: spot ETF inflows exceed $100M daily for three consecutive days; price breaks above $65,000 with volume. Invalidation: inflows drop to net outflows or price rejects $65,000 repeatedly.
- Sentiment-Driven Sell-off (15%): triggers: macro data weakens; Fear & Greed drops below 15; price breaks below $58,000. Invalidation: price recovers above $60,000 within 48 hours.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- ETF Flow Reversal: US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF products pulled in $221 million on July 3, ending a 10-day outflow streak that had drained $2.73 billion from the funds.

- MicroStrategy Monetization: Strategy adopted a framework authorizing up to $1.25 billion in tactical sales, though unconfirmed on-chain transfers of 491 BTC have yet to trigger a definitive market response.

- Capital Structure Pressure: The company faces $6.7 billion in outstanding convertible obligations due in 2027 and 2028, prompting a five-part Digital Credit Capital Framework to manage liquidity.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin ETF Inflows Reverse 10-Day Outflow Streak with $221M Gain
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-etf-news-inflows-hit-105959495.html
Published: 2026-07-03 06:59 AM CT
Summary: US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF products pulled in $221 million on July 3, 2026, ending a 10-day outflow streak that had drained $2.73 billion from the funds. Fidelity's FBTC dominated the session with $165.96 million in inflows, while BlackRock's IBIT recorded a $40.43 million outflow, signaling rotation between issuers rather than uniform institutional re-entry. Bitcoin rebounded to approximately $61,700 after touching 21-month lows under $58,000 earlier in the week. Year-to-date net outflows across all US spot Bitcoin ETF products still sit at $5.4 billion, meaning the single day of inflows represents a meaningful signal but not a solved problem. Analysts estimate that ETF flows now explain approximately 45% of weekly Bitcoin price moves, making sustained inflows a structural input into where Bitcoin trades next.

2. MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Rumors Fail to Move Market
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/microstrategy-reportedly-sold-more-bitcoin-223000105.html
Published: 2026-07-03 06:30 PM CT
Summary: An unconfirmed on-chain transfer of 491 BTC from a MicroStrategy-linked wallet sparked sale speculation on July 1. The amount represents just 0.058% of the firm's reported 847,363 BTC holdings. Strategy adopted a monetization framework on June 29 authorizing up to $1.25 billion in tactical sales to fund dividends and buybacks. Bitcoin opened Friday at $61,492 and traded near $62,016, absorbing the alleged transaction without stress. The firm typically confirms sales within days, so an upcoming SEC filing should clarify whether the transfer was a sale or a custody move.

3. Strategy's Capital Overhaul and the Bitcoin Monetization Question
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/strategys-bitcoin-stack-raises-the-key-question-what-can-it-do-instead-of-selling-btc
Published: 2026-07-03
Summary: Strategy raised cash coverage to approximately 17 months after its preferred stock STRC dropped to $71.25 amid declining cash reserves. The company implemented a five-part Digital Credit Capital Framework that includes a $1 billion preferred-stock repurchase authorization and a controversial BTC monetization program. Galaxy Digital analyst Alex Thorn called the move useful but incomplete, noting it kicks the can down the road rather than resolving structural issues forever. Thorn suggested Strategy should generate income through conservative lending or options strategies instead of selling spot bitcoin. The company still faces $6.7 billion in outstanding convertible obligations due in 2027 and 2028.

newspost.py Version: v1.3.2 | Model: Ornith-1.0-35B-heretic-Q4_K_M.gguf (26727MiB)

[Hueristic]

Does not apply in a real democracy and legally sound country though, this is a legal process not criminals beating up other criminals.  Impossible with real encryption.

Anyway you can set it up in a way that you can't unlock it either under these conditions, so they may beat you to death but they will not be able to access it. Have you heard of something called multi signature or shamir's sharding?  

Years ago me and JJg had a discussion about shamir's and this search on the board is such shit i can't find it.

I can't find half the crap I know I've posted over the years lately.

Thats literally one of the reasons I don't even bother doing anything but shit post here now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com