Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[[btc]]

Counting to 10 with your hands out loud before making a significant purchase/trade is a great strategy, as it gives you time to think on it once more before executing. The exercise, however, is much harder to do if you're missing a finger or two.

Happy 4th and stay safe!

[Hueristic]

Just spent half an hour and i can't find sparkler guy image anywhere, all the search engines suck now.

you are not kidding

im tempted to us my local ai to do its own web searches on demand so then i can assign weights to the results based on my interests and, more importantly, ignore the known garbage.

basically what bob has done with bobc

HAHA, I did that! I tried gemma4 and it couldn't find it either.

I keep trying to find something gemma4 is good at and failing, have no clue what the hype was about.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's News Digest - 2026-07-04 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-07-04 09:02 AM CT

Bitcoin is grinding back toward $63,000 after breaking a ten-day ETF outflow streak with $221.7 million in net inflows on July 2. The market is recovering from a 21-month low, though the Fear & Greed Index remains stuck in Extreme Fear at 22 for a seventh consecutive day. Weekend liquidity is thin, and analysts warn that rising leverage without price progress could stall this rally.

Outlook: Traders should watch whether the $60,000 support holds as a definitive floor or if the recent ETF inflows can sustain momentum into next week. The upcoming Federal Reserve decision under new chair Kevin Warsh may introduce rate hike headwinds, while historical data suggests July typically offers positive returns for Bitcoin despite potential August and September declines.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $62,532.00 (+0.78%).

The Fear & Greed Index sits at 22, signaling extreme fear that contradicts the recent price stability. Exchange outflows remain elevated while daily price movement has narrowed, suggesting reduced selling urgency despite weak sentiment. This combination may indicate that holders are not capitulating, even as macro headwinds persist. If this disconnection between sentiment and price action continues, it could support continued range-bound trading rather than a decisive breakout.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Continues (50%): triggers: price holds above $60,000 support while Fear & Greed remains below 30. Invalidation: a daily close below $58,500 breaks the current structure.
- Sentiment-Driven Reversal (30%): triggers: Fear & Greed rises above 40 on rising volume, pushing price toward $65,000 resistance. Invalidation: price fails to break $63,500 despite improving sentiment.
- Macro-Led Breakdown (20%): triggers: external risk-off events drive price below $55,000, invalidating the current accumulation thesis. Invalidation: price recovers above $60,000 within three days.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Strategy Monetization Program: Strategy authorized a $1.2 billion Bitcoin monetization program on June 29 to fund dividends and buybacks, marking a shift from its previous hold-only stance.

- Federal Reserve Policy: The new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, left rates unchanged but signaled potential hikes before year-end, creating headwinds for risk assets.

- U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: The asset has fallen 50% below its all-time high despite the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement in March 2025.

- John Bollinger W-Reversal: John Bollinger identified a W-shaped double bottom on Bitcoin's daily chart, noting the pattern aligns with the lower Bollinger Band and could break the downtrend since October 2025.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin and Ether Rally as ETF Inflows Break Ten-Day Outflow Streak
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-ether-extend-relief-rallies-as-extreme-fear-meets-renewed-etf-buying
Published: 2026-07-04
Summary: Bitcoin rallied to within $50 of $63,000 on July 3 after falling to a 21-month low earlier in the week. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $221.7 million net inflow on July 2, marking the largest single-day gain since early May and breaking a streak of ten consecutive outflows. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered extreme fear at 11 (Reported FNG value appears outdated; current reading is 22) out of 100, highlighting a sharp disconnect between market sentiment and actual buying activity. Funding rates have remained positive for eight consecutive days, and open interest in leveraged Bitcoin positions sits near recent highs despite sideways price action. Analysts warn that this buildup of leverage without significant price progress serves as a caution signal rather than confirmation of a sustained rally.

2. John Bollinger Eyes Bitcoin W-Reversal as ETF Inflows Resume
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bollinger-bands-creator-eyes-bitcoin-bear-market-end-w-shaped-reversal
Published: 2026-07-04
Summary: John Bollinger identified a W-shaped double bottom on Bitcoin's daily chart, noting the pattern aligns with the lower Bollinger Band and could break the downtrend since October 2025. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first net inflows in ten days, with $220 million entering the market. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated the ETF segment signals easing pressure in the late stage of the bear cycle. Trader Daan Crypto Trades observed that price held the $60,000 region despite outflows, indicating significant absorption at that level.

3. Bitcoin's 50% Drawdown and the Case for Dollar-Cost Averaging
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-buy-recent-selloff-090100829.html
Published: 2026-07-04 05:01 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin has fallen 50% below its all-time high, marking its largest drawdown in several years despite the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement in March 2025. The asset has still returned over 8,800% in the past decade, though that performance came with significant volatility and periodic massive sell-offs. Investors view Bitcoin primarily as digital gold and an anti-inflationary hedge against a weakening U.S. dollar driven by federal budget deficits.

4. Bitcoin's 20% Drop and What History Says Next
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-crashed-20-over-last-122400994.html
Published: 2026-07-04 08:24 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin has fallen 20% from its late May peak and is testing the $60,000 support level. Strategy authorized a $1.2 billion Bitcoin monetization program on June 29 to fund dividends and buybacks, marking a shift from its previous hold-only stance. The new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, left rates unchanged but signaled potential hikes before year-end, creating headwinds for risk assets. Historical data shows July tends to be positive for Bitcoin, with a median gain of 8.2% since 2013, though past rebounds rarely fully erase prior losses. August and September historically show consistent declines, suggesting any July recovery may only provide temporary relief.

5. Bitcoin Realized P&L Hits 43-Month Low as Analysts Spot Potential Bottom
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-realized-profit-loss-ratio-falls-to-lowest-level-since-2022-cryptoquant
Published: 2026-07-04
Summary: The Bitcoin realized profit and loss ratio has dropped to -0.35, marking a 43-month low that historically coincides with market bottoms. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan stated the bottom is closer than ever and predicted a new bull market will begin this fall. Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston argued that Bitcoin trades only 16% above its realized price, a level that has historically preceded strong forward returns. Livingston acknowledged that buying now feels uncomfortable but warned investors against waiting for a bottom that never announces itself. The recent market drop followed fears that Strategy's Stretch preferred stock offering signaled an unsustainable dividend model.

newspost.py Version: v1.3.2 | Model: Ornith-1.0-35B-heretic-Q4_K_M.gguf (26727MiB)

[xhomerx10]

quote from the linked article:

CAB has not disclosed the technical method behind the wallet access, standard practice during an active case. Officials credit Europol with hosting meetings in The Hague and supplying the decryption resources that made the breach possible.

Made me wonder which those resources might be???

Computing power or funds for the computing power and technical expertise, it depends on how the keys were stored. If they are stored correctly, no decryption efforts can unlock them in this lifetime not even if you throw at it all the computing power of the planet.

Does not apply in a real democracy and legally sound country though, this is a legal process not criminals beating up other criminals.  Impossible with real encryption.

Anyway you can set it up in a way that you can't unlock it either under these conditions, so they may beat you to death but they will not be able to access it. Have you heard of something called multi signature or shamir's sharding? 

 We can debate the term 'real' democracy and 'legally sound' but I know for a fact that there was a torture house run in downtown Bucharest for at least 3 years in collusion with the USA (and the CIA).  The reason for this was the torture house in Poland was closed in 2003 after only about 9 months of operation.  It all came to light after the fact but these are just three 'real'  Western democracies.  Lithuania was also involved in this providing "overflow" space for prisoners (who were also tortured).  Great Britain was a little smarter about it but MI5 and MI6 provided interrogation intelligence and targeting data for the CIA and farmed out their torture houses to foreign dictators... yeah those 'real' Western democracies used Ghaddafi for years before royally fucking him over.  What are we at 5 now?

 That being said, I doubt any government could procure a wrench for $5 so I'm sure it cost them millions but I'm equally sure it could easily have been a wrench - at least symbolically.  FFS we're talking about Ireland here and they aren't exactly saints... aside from Patrick and I'm not 100% certain about him.  Maybe they're going all stabby on some of his relatives until he "remembers" what was on those "paper wallets" he printed out and stored in a "fishing-rod case".  Why would anyone assume a criminal wouldn't make up such a story?  He wouldn't have trusted anyone with information about the fishing-rod case, so how could it have been corroborated?  Cracking 500 coins every 50 or so days 5 years after his release seems a little "fishy" to me... this isn't bitcoin mining.  I think the story was concocted between Collins and the state and made part of the public record so that once he was released, he wouldn't be hunted down by non-state bad guys with $5 wrenches or worse and as part of his plea-deal (for which he had a lot of leverage) they allowed him to release the wallets to the state 500 coins at a time once his time was served after a certain period of time elapsed.  Maybe he obtained protection and immunity from future "unexplained", "fishy" wealth... who knows? Only he and a select few wards of 'real' democracy I suspect.

 I'm still butt-hurt over the 'death' of Gerald Cottan Cotten though so my thoughts may be biased.  I just have a hard time believing that someone who spent years creating fake accounts, lying to users and shifting stolen funds into private accounts dies of complications of Chron's disease 48 hours after arriving in India and less than 2 weeks after signing a new will giving everything to his girlfriend and his dogs, comes back to Canada as ashes in an urn with his last name misspelled on the death certificate.  One would have to completely shut off their brain to accept this story and I feel similarly about the "fishing-rod case".

In Legal Democracy, you are decryption resource!

 Interesting that you brought this meme up today of all days.  Was that on purpose?

"You can go to Italy, but you can’t become Italian. You can go to Germany, but you can’t become German. You can go to France, but you can’t become French. But you can come to America, and you can become an American."¹

  Wishing all you American hodlers celebrating 250 years of that very idea today a fantastic semiquincentennial!  Enjoy the backyard BBQs and fireworks with family and friends! (or one of the inevitable protests if that's what you feel is most fitting - that's the beauty of America)
Personally I can't wait to see the national fireworks show - I hear it's a 40 minute show with 850,000 shells across 10 different sites in D.C., and it was purposely designed with that many shells in an attempt to break world records.  America!  Fuck Yeah!

¹ Yakov Smirnoff, America: What a Country!

[Bitcoin-Forever]

Wall Street Analysis by me, try to study the candle for this week and the month of July.

The current market price is showing indications to pump rather than to dump.
If we eventually have support at $62,000 this new week, there is a possibility of seeing the market rise to $65,000 or even $66,000.

We are not going to have resistance at $60,000 this time around for July, no don't expect anything below $60,000 anytime soon because we are moving bullish with massive support.

DYOR

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

good morning w.o.

went to bed late woke up late.

I got not 1 not 2 or 3 but 4 samples of hammerminers to review.

was playing with them last night.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5585928.0

the Dc08 is impressive.

[BTCETFInvestor]

Need another $1k and closing above $63,800 for a sizeable short squeeze and to springboard to the next level.     

[cAPSLOCK]

Does not apply in a real democracy and legally sound country though, this is a legal process not criminals beating up other criminals.  Impossible with real encryption.

Anyway you can set it up in a way that you can't unlock it either under these conditions, so they may beat you to death but they will not be able to access it. Have you heard of something called multi signature or shamir's sharding?  

Years ago me and JJg had a discussion about shamir's and this search on the board is such shit i can't find it.

I can't find half the crap I know I've posted over the years lately.

Thats literally one of the reasons I don't even bother doing anything but shit post here now.

I have similar complaints, although with the right AI setup you can do some fairly sophisticated searches on this thread. (unfortunately.)

I posted a long while back that I was sure that the government would realize at some point what they would be able to do with something like Ethereum when it came to resurrecting the US dollar or recreating the same crappy system but just on digital steroids.

And I can't make myself feel smart and annoy everybody else here by quoting myself over and over again and fanning my balls.

[BobLawblaw]

"new years computer guy meme"

Happy 4th, fellow humans.

Just spent half an hour and i can't find sparkler guy image anywhere, all the search engines suck now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Happy 250 America!



Proud American!  

[cAPSLOCK]

Just spent half an hour and i can't find sparkler guy image anywhere, all the search engines suck now.

I give up, this one will have to do.



Happy 4th people.

It's this guy but with a sparkler, right?




Wait, I found the template for that one. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

congrats to Joey Chestnut once again a winner 67 dogs this time a bit short of his all-time record of 76


https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2026/07/04/nathans-hot-dog-eating-contest-2026-results/90786486007/


"Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest results: Joey Chestnut survives heat, wins"

[Hueristic]

"new years computer guy meme"

Happy 4th, fellow humans.

Just spent half an hour and i can't find sparkler guy image anywhere, all the search engines suck now.

Just spent half an hour and i can't find sparkler guy image anywhere, all the search engines suck now.

I give up, this one will have to do.



Happy 4th people.

It's this guy but with a sparkler, right?




Wait, I found the template for that one.  

No he's kind of gay looking, its pretty funny, totally disinterested in celebrating, but that one is a classic and the same vibe!

And I can't make myself feel smart and annoy everybody else here by quoting myself over and over again and fanning my balls.

Pointing out to someone that accuses you of being ignorant is a use case for search.

In the past I spent inordinate amounts of time researching and fact checking posts and repeating that time sink over and over is just foolish.

*but I do know who your talking about, LOL
And the fact he's not around on holidays speaks volumes.

[Biodom]

Bitcoin is showing some life.
The big question-if it goes up 20% to about 70K, would it be a local top or just a first step?
We might have some resistance in that area.

OT: Elon is promising 6% on cash balances on his new toy-X money.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/currencies/articles/elon-musks-x-money-promises-180000390.html

It is hilarious how banks were fighting stables for a 'passive' yield and here we go-6%, which is much higher than 3.5-3.75% that you can get in a money market fund.
Is it worth a $400/year Premium+ subscription?
It depends on how much cash you can deposit.
Breakeven is just $6.7K with up to $10mil in swipe coverage ($250K per bank).
This would not protect you if X money itself fails somehow.

I might finally get an X account.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

OT
Sorry, can't help myself:

Here is my cheer for the Cabo Verde team (if you know, you know).
What an entertainment...cut short...oh, well.