Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Floczy]

I wanted to mention that in recent times I captured some pretty decent aurora photos.  

I have 8 photos that were shot in a variety of directions and the moon had already been up for a bit of time when I made the shots, and the moon seemed to have not interfered with the shots.

You can open the photos in a new window to enlarge them.

We all are complementing the view, yes of cause it's is spectacular,
But I'm also impressed with the phone you used to take this picture, probably you used a camera. And you also did a good job in taking the pictures, the beauty of it comes from your positioning and that is also impressive
But if it was a phone you used I am impressed with the way they designed their camera quality, if you don't mind I'll like to know what phone it is. I know of 2 good competing phones I phone and Samsung but I don't know which has this quality probably might not even be either of them

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[goldkingcoiner]

I wanted to mention that in recent times I captured some pretty decent aurora photos.  

I have 8 photos that were shot in a variety of directions and the moon had already been up for a bit of time when I made the shots, and the moon seemed to have not interfered with the shots.

You can open the photos in a new window to enlarge them.

That is one tasty looking sky!

Thanks for posting this, JJG!

What a beautiful world we live in...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[hypebrother]

in other interesting news,

Just when people were excited of the gekko coffee cups

we have this from degenerative fuckheads called RBI

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-central-bank-backs-crypto-ban-tax-department-warns-evasion-risks-documents-2026-07-08/

do not forget to buy ndsl data for easy options gain

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

We all are complementing the view, yes of cause it's is spectacular,
But I'm also impressed with the phone you used to take this picture, probably you used a camera. And you also did a good job in taking the pictures, the beauty of it comes from your positioning and that is also impressive
But if it was a phone you used I am impressed with the way they designed their camera quality, if you don't mind I'll like to know what phone it is. I know of 2 good competing phones I phone and Samsung but I don't know which has this quality probably might not even be either of them

I was using the Iphone 15 Promax for the pictures, with the flash off.  You can see that some of the photos are slightly blurry, since when I took each of them, I was taking them by hand and I would have to stay still for about 5 seconds as the camera captured the image, which it seems to have an automatic sensor for night mode since I had turned the flash off. 

I will agree that the phones do a real good job with improvements in each of the generations with their automation and their night sensors, so perhaps the Iphone 16 or 17 promax would have had shot better.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's News Digest - 2026-07-08 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-07-08 09:07 AM CT

Wednesday brings a choppy session as Bitcoin grinds below its thirty-day average while the seven-day trend quietly climbs. The Fear and Greed Index sits at twenty, marking extreme fear, though the one-point weekly shift suggests participants are slowly stepping off the panic button. Strategy's decision to offload 3,588 bitcoin for roughly $216 million to cover preferred dividends now anchors the market narrative, turning corporate cash-flow mechanics into the primary price driver.

Outlook: Market participants will likely watch how Strategy manages its upcoming dividend calendar, since the firm must still clear roughly $1.5 billion in annual preferred payments. Traders should also monitor whether the improving Fear and Greed reading can sustain the seven-day uptrend, or if corporate selling pressure will eventually cap the recovery.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $61,828.00 (-1.86%).

The Fear & Greed Index rests at 20 while exchange netflow registers a +22/50 reading, and Bitcoin trades at $61,828 after a 1.86% daily pullback. The elevated exchange inflow suggests sellers continue to move coins onto trading venues, yet the narrowing daily declines and positive weekly momentum indicate that selling pressure has lost its initial force. Market makers and long-term holders currently dictate the rhythm of this range-bound environment, and a sustained shift in exchange flows would likely determine whether the asset breaks higher or tests lower support.

SCENARIOS

- Range Expansion (45%): triggers: exchange netflow turns negative for three consecutive days while weekly close holds above $60,500. Invalidation: daily close below $58,200 breaks the current structure.
- Exchange-Driven Pullback (35%): triggers: netflow reading climbs above +35/50 and Fear & Greed drops below 15 as Long-term wallets begin moving coins. Invalidation: price reclaims $63,500 on rising volume.
- Continued Consolidation (20%): triggers: exchange netflow stays between +15 and +25/50 while daily volatility remains compressed. Invalidation: a decisive break above $64,000 or below $57,000 ends the range.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

-American Bitcoin Corp Treasury Milestone: The publicly traded firm added roughly 2,600 bitcoin through mining and open-market purchases, pushing its corporate vault past the 8,000 bitcoin mark despite a recent 94 percent decline in share value.

-New Hampshire Municipal Bond Vote: CleanSpark will post bitcoin as collateral for a $100 million state loan, and Moody's assigned a speculative Ba2 rating due to the underlying asset's volatility.

-Global Liquidity Correlation: Fidelity Digital Assets data shows that 87 percent of bitcoin's price movements over the past fifteen years track changes in the global M2 money supply, reinforcing the macro liquidity narrative.

-Mining Difficulty Adjustment: The network difficulty dropped 3.48 percent to a hashrate of 650 exahashes per second, which eases the revenue pressure on miners even as hashprice remains under scrutiny.

TOP STORIES

1. Strategy Sells $216 Million in Bitcoin Without Touching Board-Authorized Cap
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/vaneck-strategy-bitcoin-sale-monetization-program
Published: 2026-07-08 04:05 AM CT
Summary: Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin for roughly $216 million between June 29 and July 5 to cover preferred stock dividends and rebuild its cash reserve to $2.55 billion. Vaneck researcher Matthew Sigel confirmed those sales did not draw down the company's $1.25 billion board-authorized monetization program, leaving the full selling capacity available for future use. Sigel now treats the company as a hedge fund that trades its own capital structure alongside bitcoin, and he assigns it a low price-to-earnings multiple accordingly. JPMorgan analysts warn that formalizing a sale policy introduces avoidable two-way risk into the market, while Grayscale argues the move actually reduces tail risk by pre-funding roughly seventeen months of dividend obligations. The company's bitcoin holdings now sit at approximately 843,775 units, and the firm must still cover about $1.5 billion in annual preferred dividends that its core software business cannot fully fund.

2. American Bitcoin Corp. Crosses 8,000 BTC Treasury Milestone
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/eric-trump-american-bitcoin-treasury-101017032.html
Published: 2026-07-08 06:10 AM CT
Summary: American Bitcoin Corp. added roughly 2,600 Bitcoin to its corporate vault in the first half of 2026, pushing total holdings past the 8,000 BTC mark and valuing the position at approximately $504 million. The company funded that accumulation through a mix of in-house mining and open-market purchases, with management citing a 52 percent mining profit margin and a lean cost structure as operational advantages. Those operational claims clash with the company's actual financial results, as American Bitcoin reported an $81.8 million net loss in the first quarter and has shed 94 percent of its market value since its Nasdaq debut last September. Industry observers note that the firm's treasury still trails the sector leader by a wide margin, and the recent 1-for-15 reverse stock split has done little to restore investor confidence or stabilize the share price.

3. Strategy Sells Bitcoin to Cover Dividends as Breakeven Threshold Rises to 3.3%
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/saylor-btc-breakeven-arr-strc-dividends
Published: 2026-07-08
Summary: Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor states that bitcoin must appreciate faster than 3.3% annually for the company to cover its STRC preferred dividend obligations indefinitely. The firm recently sold 3,588 bitcoin for roughly $216 million between late June and early July to fund those payouts, which trims its treasury to approximately 843,775 bitcoin. Strategy now faces about $1.5 billion in annual preferred dividend payments across five instruments, a figure that dwarfs the $477 million the company generated from its software business in 2025. Critics point out that the growing dividend stack will eventually force the company to liquidate its holdings, and Cryptoquant founder Ki Young Ju warns that fading investor demand could weaken the STRC market. JPMorgan analysts note that formalizing these bitcoin sales introduces two-way risk into crypto markets, while Saylor maintains that liquidating roughly 1.4% of assets annually can sustain the dividend structure even in a flat market.

4. How Consistent Bitcoin Investing Builds Long-Term Wealth
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/investing-bitcoin-could-millionaire-090000812.html
Published: 2026-07-08 05:00 AM CT
Summary: The article argues that consistent Bitcoin purchases over decades can build substantial wealth, though rapid millionaire status remains unlikely. Bitcoin operates under a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, and new issuance halves roughly every four years. Fidelity Digital Assets found that 87 (Reported FNG value appears outdated; current reading is 20)% of Bitcoin's price movements over the past 15 years track changes in the global M2 money supply. VanEck projects a 15% annualized return over the next quarter-century, which would turn $500 monthly contributions into roughly $1.4 million. The author warns that bear markets can erase up to 80% of paper gains, so the strategy requires patience and portfolio diversification.

5. New Hampshire's $100 Million Bitcoin-Backed Bond Heads to Final Vote
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/new-hampshires-100-million-bitcoin-backed
Published: 2026-07-07 12:19 PM CT
Summary: New Hampshire's Executive Council will vote Wednesday on a $100 million municipal bond that uses Bitcoin as collateral instead of government backing. CleanSpark, a Bitcoin mining company, posts the cryptocurrency to secure the loan, and bond payments come from proceeds tied to that digital asset. Moody's assigned the bonds a provisional Ba2 rating, which places them in speculative territory due to the underlying volatility. Academic David Krause warned that recent Bitcoin price swings would likely trigger the bond's automatic liquidation clause before the three-year term ends. The state remains legally insulated from direct losses, but the structure still exposes taxpayers to reputational risk if the collateral depreciates.

6. Bitcoin Quant Flags Textbook Bottom as Short-Term Holders Take Profits
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/btc-speculators-in-focus-as-analysis-says-textbook-bitcoin-bottom-is-underway
Published: 2026-07-08
Summary: A Bitcoin quant known as Frank points to the 200-week simple moving average and short-term holder profit ratios as signs that the worst of the current downtrend has passed. The ninth quantile of that moving average previously marked the March 2020 crash and the 2022 bear market trough, and Bitcoin price action now sits inside that same reversal zone. Short-term holders are realizing gains on minor bounces, a pattern the analyst calls typical of early bull markets. CryptoQuant contributor Trader Germini counters that the profit ratio has not yet dipped to the 0.93 levels seen in past local bottoms, which means short-term holders have not fully capitulated. The cautious read gains weight as Strategy continues to offload Bitcoin, including a recent $216 million sale that tempers the bullish momentum.

7. StarkWare CEO Proposes 4% Annual Bitcoin Inflation to Replace Fixed Supply Cap
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/news/starkware-ceo-suggests-4-annual-bitcoin-inflation-to-replace-21m-cap
Published: 2026-07-08
Summary: StarkWare CEO Eli Ben-Sasson proposed replacing Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply cap with a 4% annual inflation rate, arguing that lost private keys will gradually shrink the usable coin supply. Bitcoin holders pushed back, noting that missing keys actually tighten supply dynamics and that the network's divisibility into 2.1 quadrillion satoshis addresses scarcity concerns. Ben-Sasson countered that even those smaller units will trend toward zero over time, and he still favors a hard upper limit on total issuance. Zcash founder Bryce "Zooko" Wilcox pointed to his network's "Network Sustainability Mechanism" as a potential template, a system that burns tokens and redistributes them as block rewards over four years without removing the cap. Any shift to Bitcoin's monetary policy would still require broad consensus among developers, miners, and node operators under the network's decentralized governance structure.

newspost.py Version: v1.3.3 | Model: Ornith-1.0-35B-heretic-Q4_K_M.gguf (27947MiB)

[Lucius]

~snip~

~snip~
-April 2028 Halving: A scheduled supply reduction in early 2028 will likely trigger the next major price movement, though past four-year market rhythms never guarantee future results.

I don't know if it makes much sense to take the halving as something that could/should have a significant impact on the price considering that miners are currently only "producing" around 450 BTC per day, which is 13 500 BTC per month. I don't know if they sell everything they mine or only a small part, but even that doesn't matter if we see that even the monthly amount of newly mined coins represents almost no burden on the market.

Halving can (and will) have a psychological effect on the market as always, especially with ordinary people who behave according to a predetermined pattern - buy cheap, sell high, aim for halving.

Personally, I am not ready to give up on the halvening as a material event for bitcoin's ongoing price dynamics.  There seems to be a lot of infrastructure that continues to be built and maintained around mining, whether they make money or not might be another story since it is doubtful that they can all be considered in the same economical terms, since it seems that some of them are likely more profitable than others.

And, sure you are making a valid point about the new issued supply being less and less relevant to the overall bitcoin market supply, yet there are still likely quite a few folks who are still giving a certain significance (and perhaps greater value) to actual bitcoin rather than so many of the pumping of various paper bitcoin products, that also seem to affect the BTC price to some extent, even though there are likely a lot of difficulties in accurately assessing how many paper bitcoin products are out there and the extent that some of them should be discounted based on their fakety-fake bullshit.

Yes, the mining business is something completely different that I didn't take into account, if we take into account the mining rigs, farms, people working there, electricity contracts and probably a few more things - compared to those coins that are PoS like ETH, we could see how much credibility that project lost after it abandoned PoW.

Of course, there are still people who will spin the story around the halving as the only solid point they can hold onto, but the numbers are more than clear and it should be clear to everyone that newly mined coins play a very small role in price formation. For the sake of comparison, only Saylor has almost as many coins as there are left for mining, and when in a few years we reach 99% of mined coins halvings will very likely be something almost irrelevant.

The question for everyone is how much such a scenario will affect security, given that many miners will go out of business because it will no longer be profitable to mine when the reward is only 0.78125 BTC per block or half that. Miners do it for profit (most of them), and I honestly think there are very few who are interested in anything other than that.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

[edited out]

We all are complementing the view, yes of cause it's is spectacular,
But I'm also impressed with the phone you used to take this picture, probably you used a camera. And you also did a good job in taking the pictures, the beauty of it comes from your positioning and that is also impressive
But if it was a phone you used I am impressed with the way they designed their camera quality, if you don't mind I'll like to know what phone it is. I know of 2 good competing phones I phone and Samsung but I don't know which has this quality probably might not even be either of them

I was using the Iphone 15 Promax for the pictures, with the flash off.  You can see that some of the photos are slightly blurry, since when I took each of them, I was taking them by hand and I would have to stay still for about 5 seconds as the camera captured the image, which it seems to have an automatic sensor for night mode since I had turned the flash off.  

I will agree that the phones do a real good job with improvements in each of the generations with their automation and their night sensors, so perhaps the Iphone 16 or 17 promax would have had shot better.

Flash off huh, must be why the moon was soo dark.

[Hueristic]

BobClawblaw's News Digest - 2026-07-08 (Late Morning Edition)
TOP STORIES

1. Strategy Sells $216 Million in Bitcoin Without Touching Board-Authorized Cap
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/vaneck-strategy-bitcoin-sale-monetization-program
Published: 2026-07-08 04:05 AM CT
Summary: Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin for roughly $216 million between June 29 and July 5 to cover preferred stock dividends and rebuild its cash reserve to $2.55 billion. Vaneck researcher Matthew Sigel confirmed those sales did not draw down the company's $1.25 billion board-authorized monetization program, leaving the full selling capacity available for future use. Sigel now treats the company as a hedge fund that trades its own capital structure alongside bitcoin, and he assigns it a low price-to-earnings multiple accordingly. JPMorgan analysts warn that formalizing a sale policy introduces avoidable two-way risk into the market, while Grayscale argues the move actually reduces tail risk by pre-funding roughly seventeen months of dividend obligations. The company's bitcoin holdings now sit at approximately 843,775 units, and the firm must still cover about $1.5 billion in annual preferred dividends that its core software business cannot fully fund.

STOP repeating this EVERY SINGLE DAY and changing the date as if they are selling that amount repeatedly!

What are you a FUD machine?

[Hueristic]

Hey, anyone know if Yertle the Turtle is brain dead (well more than normal)?

*good question for you peops that like to quote yourself as a source and threaten others because you either have or want people to think you have abc access.

[vapourminer]

BobClawblaw's News Digest - 2026-07-08 (Late Morning Edition)
TOP STORIES

1. Strategy Sells $216 Million in Bitcoin Without Touching Board-Authorized Cap
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/vaneck-strategy-bitcoin-sale-monetization-program
Published: 2026-07-08 04:05 AM CT

STOP repeating this EVERY SINGLE DAY and changing the date as if they are selling that amount repeatedly!

What are you a FUD machine?

nah GB10 is a FP4 machine

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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