Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[OutOfMemory]

...Brian Armstrong, the chief executive of Coinbase, made a public declaration that Bitcoin has likely established its cyclical low at the $60,000 threshold. His analysis ...

Fuck that piece of shit bootlicker, we determined the floor over a month ago.

why don't you try understanding this thread and what the poll is for.

@JJ (not @JJG) seems to quite like to provoke, it seems.

[ChartBuddy]

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[BTCETFInvestor]

Spain

Spain wins the World Cup!  

But the United States of America won over the world's people that visited our great American cities that hosted the World Cup games...  

Air conditioned stores, restaurants, Bass Pro Shops - Buc-ees, Ranch dressing, Chick-fil-A. Texas BBQ;  Free diner refills, Waffle Houses, and warehouse-sized stores like Walmart, massive novelties and the sheer size and amount of merchandise in our super stores - - and of course how genuinely kind and nice Americans are.

And, how totally wrong people in their home countries were about what to expect in the U.S.A.!!!!!!!!   !!!!!!!!!!!!

The world gained favorable knowledge about the United States by the U.S. hosting the World Cup. Everybody won!

The 2026 World Cup generated an estimated $30.5 billion in overall economic output for the U.S. and an estimated $20 billion in on-the-ground economic activity. The tournament cost approximately $11.1 billion to host in the United States and was projected to create about 185,000 jobs nationwide.

[BTCETFInvestor]

...Brian Armstrong, the chief executive of Coinbase, made a public declaration that Bitcoin has likely established its cyclical low at the $60,000 threshold. His analysis ...

Fuck that piece of shit bootlicker, we determined the floor over a month ago.

why don't you try understanding this thread and what the poll is for.

@JJ (not @JJG) seems to quite like to provoke, it seems.

@OOM - Who is this phantom @JJ  (not @JJG) you speak of? 

[vapourminer]

I bought another two DGX Sparks just to run a server for Deepseek V4 Flash.

I have many problems.

Jealousy intensifies...

haha keeping up with the bobs..

[vapourminer]

But is hard when the same tool that is broken is what has to detect the brokenness.

doing brain diagnostics whilst the brain is crashing and burning at orbital velocity?

no prob just another monday here at WO

[philipma1957]

GOAT bathing next GOAT
Is it 19 years yet? So in 19 years they will be face to face.

Don't be retarded and distracted by the recent performance of gold.

Gold had been beat to shit by fiat and fiat manipulators over the past 55 years, and seemingly even longer, and so I doubt that gold is even close to being capable of engaging in any kind of meaningful competition with the various ongoing manipulation of fiat and the fiat systems.

Bitcoin's redeeming qualities relate to its abilities to be taken into self-custody and to be transacted peer to peer, which ultimately are two of the ways that bitcoin is superior to gold (and fiat) in money soundness, even though it is getting ongoingly attacked by various bitcoin paper product, paper systems and even debt systems (bitcoin financial instruments), so yeah, the ongoing lack of appreciation of bitcoin's properties or even the adoption of bitcoin that would help to facilitate better understandings from normies about what is bitcoin and how to profit from using it, holding it and accumulating it... and probably even needing to ongoingly figure out ways to use it without requesting permission from varying government and/or financial institutions, which many of us continue to be guilty in our ongoing use of those systems.

In other words, there seem to be no reason to be getting distracted by gold, even if there are quite a few ways that bitcoin seemed to have had used gold attributes in its modeling to be a better gold, including transactability, verifiability, transportability, security/privacy, (related to non-physicality), divisibility, cost of storage and transacting, and several other attributes.

Ohhh JJG, you missed the point. 😄

See Gold was GOAT until Bitcoin arrive

It wasn't really about gold vs. Bitcoin. It was inspired by that famous photo of Messi giving baby Yamal a bath.

Nineteen years later... they met in the World Cup final face to face.

You know who won? Yamal. The next GOAT. 😄

That's what I was trying to portray: GOLD was GOAT until Satoshi invented and created Bitcoin.

... and one day Bitcoin is going to outperform its mentor. 😉₿

Now look at both pictures again

bots like jjg tend to miss humor like yours.

i liked it though.

[ChartBuddy]

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[Lucius]

There is no question, as I said in earlier times… I was always worried about the leveraging in Bitcoin and crypto. There is too much leverage players in it. That’s why we had to wash out... I think there’s more stability at these levels here.

https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/blackrock-ceo-calls-bitcoin-stronger-after-leverage-reset

Like him or not, like his products or not, what he says is significant. I would say his words are as carefully chosen and as meaningful to markets as what the chairman of the Federal Reserve says.

I find these particular words at this moment to be very interesting.  It seems to me the meaning he's trying to get across is 126 back to 60 was primarily(?) a lot of leverage traders being washed out. But where we are now is solid ground and he expects "crypto markets" go up from here.

But he's also making these statements on the eve of whatever happens next with the clarity act.  I think this is a big unknown and will probably have impact on the markets once we have more clarity (ha-ha) as to where we may be headed.

I think there's probably not a lot of confidence about the direction we may be going there. I think there's significant risk that it will not pass.  It is a politically contentious subject, championed by a very politically contentious president and administration. And there's a lot of grumpiness about it for many reasons.

And please don't read the things I'm saying as a black and white declaration on whether the Clarity Act is good, bad, or indifferent for us. I think it's all of those things.  And ultimately, whether it passes or not will be noise. It may have an influence, directionally, for a period of time, but it's not going to be forever.

However, we also get a new version of the bill showing up sometime this week, I think.

So, which way, western bitcoinner? Have we formed a solid base of diamond hands here in this range, and we're going to see a bull kick off earlier than we are "supposed to", or will we see the legs kicked out from under us, at least one more really good time.

Fink seems to be signaling the former.  Who knows what that means?

I think that those "diamond hands" are something that is reserved only for a few and that most of those who invest in Bitcoin should still be classified as "weak hands". Larry is saying what the market may want to hear, but it is unlikely that the bulls will return at a time when the world is still facing the consequences of the conflict in Iran, which continues to bring an energy crisis everywhere in the world, especially in Asia.

On the other hand, the war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending, and Ukraine is becoming more and more dangerous for Russia, considering that it is very systematically destroying oil refineries and factories that produce key military systems. The Russians are so desperate that they even introduced the assembly and control of drones into mandatory elementary school education, which means that they are preparing for a long-term war.

In addition, Trumpy and his gods of profits prefer the market of chaos, so somehow it seems to me that we will have various surprises on the market for at least another two years.

[BTCETFInvestor]

bots like jjg tend to miss humor like yours.

i liked it though.

Phil - So, you're calling JJG out as a bot, huh?  

[philipma1957]

There is no question, as I said in earlier times… I was always worried about the leveraging in Bitcoin and crypto. There is too much leverage players in it. That’s why we had to wash out... I think there’s more stability at these levels here.

https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/blackrock-ceo-calls-bitcoin-stronger-after-leverage-reset

Like him or not, like his products or not, what he says is significant. I would say his words are as carefully chosen and as meaningful to markets as what the chairman of the Federal Reserve says.

I find these particular words at this moment to be very interesting.  It seems to me the meaning he's trying to get across is 126 back to 60 was primarily(?) a lot of leverage traders being washed out. But where we are now is solid ground and he expects "crypto markets" go up from here.

But he's also making these statements on the eve of whatever happens next with the clarity act.  I think this is a big unknown and will probably have impact on the markets once we have more clarity (ha-ha) as to where we may be headed.

I think there's probably not a lot of confidence about the direction we may be going there. I think there's significant risk that it will not pass.  It is a politically contentious subject, championed by a very politically contentious president and administration. And there's a lot of grumpiness about it for many reasons.

And please don't read the things I'm saying as a black and white declaration on whether the Clarity Act is good, bad, or indifferent for us. I think it's all of those things.  And ultimately, whether it passes or not will be noise. It may have an influence, directionally, for a period of time, but it's not going to be forever.

However, we also get a new version of the bill showing up sometime this week, I think.

So, which way, western bitcoinner? Have we formed a solid base of diamond hands here in this range, and we're going to see a bull kick off earlier than we are "supposed to", or will we see the legs kicked out from under us, at least one more really good time.

Fink seems to be signaling the former.  Who knows what that means?

I think that those "diamond hands" are something that is reserved only for a few and that most of those who invest in Bitcoin should still be classified as "weak hands". Larry is saying what the market may want to hear, but it is unlikely that the bulls will return at a time when the world is still facing the consequences of the conflict in Iran, which continues to bring an energy crisis everywhere in the world, especially in Asia.

On the other hand, the war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending, and Ukraine is becoming more and more dangerous for Russia, considering that it is very systematically destroying oil refineries and factories that produce key military systems. The Russians are so desperate that they even introduced the assembly and control of drones into mandatory elementary school education, which means that they are preparing for a long-term war.

In addition, Trumpy and his gods of profits prefer the market of chaos, so somehow it seems to me that we will have various surprises on the market for at least another two years.

Yeah I suppose you could be accurate but is not europe suffering due to the iran close of the strait?

to me trump will strech the close of the straight as long as he can as he wants to put a hurt on europe and china.

fuel wise.

[ChartBuddy]

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[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-07-20 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-07-20 09:03 AM CT

Bitcoin is trading at $64,222 on Monday, holding a narrow 0.34% decline while the Fear & Greed Index sits at 29 - a level that signals fear but has improved by seven points over the past week. The market has been grinding sideways for three days, with the 7-day trend still up 3.3% and price holding above the 30-day moving average of $62,632. The dominant story today is Strategy's $263.5 million share sale, which raised cash without buying Bitcoin and pushed the company's dollar reserves to $3.225 billion.

Outlook: The key question is whether the ETF inflow reversal - $273 million over two weeks after an $8.2 billion outflow streak - represents a genuine shift in institutional demand or just a temporary pause. Strategy's cash accumulation without Bitcoin purchases suggests the company is preparing for something, though whether that means a future buy or simply de-risking remains unclear. Watch for Bitcoin to reclaim $65,000 decisively, which analysts say would be needed to confirm a new uptrend.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,222.00 (-0.34%).

Exchange netflows remain positive, with 11 out of 50 days showing net inflows, which typically signals some selling pressure from exchanges. The 7-day gain of 3.3% provides a modest upward bias, though the flat 30-day performance indicates the broader trend remains unresolved. Risk-on conditions in equities and other assets may be providing a tailwind, but Bitcoin's muted 30-day return suggests the market is waiting for a clearer catalyst. The combination of weak sentiment and modest exchange outflows creates a setup where a sustained move higher would require either renewed institutional demand or a shift in macro conditions.

SCENARIOS

- Range-Bound Consolidation (45%): triggers: Bitcoin holds between $62,000-$66,000 with exchange netflows remaining modestly positive and Fear & Greed staying below 40. Invalidation: A break below $62,000 with accelerating exchange inflows or a break above $66,000 with sustained exchange outflows.
- Bullish Breakout (30%): triggers: Exchange netflows turn negative for multiple consecutive days, Fear & Greed rises above 50, and Bitcoin breaks above $66,000 with volume confirmation. Invalidation: A rejection at $66,000 followed by a return to exchange inflows and sentiment dropping back below 30.
- Bearish Breakdown (25%): triggers: Exchange netflows accelerate positive, Fear & Greed drops below 25, and Bitcoin breaks below $62,000 with increasing volume. Invalidation: A bounce back above $62,000 with exchange outflows returning and sentiment recovering above 30.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Strategy Share Sale: Strategy sold 2,732,318 MSTR shares between July 13 and July 19, raising $263.5 million in proceeds that flowed into its dollar reserve without any Bitcoin purchases.

- Peter Brandt Cycle Call: Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicts Bitcoin will bottom on October 4, 2026, after potentially falling below $50,000 into the high $40,000 range, with a cycle peak target of $250,000 to $300,000 by 2029.

TOP STORIES

1. Strategy Sells $263.5 Million in MSTR Shares Without Buying Bitcoin
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/strategy-sells-263-5-million-in-mstr
Published: 2026-07-20 07:29 AM CT
Summary: Strategy sold 2,732,318 MSTR shares between July 13 and July 19, raising $263.5 million in proceeds that flowed into its U.S. dollar reserve. The cash balance reached $3.225 billion as of July 19, up from roughly $3 billion after a prior $467 million share sale. The company made no bitcoin purchases, sold no bitcoin, and repurchased no shares under its buyback programs during the period. Strategy's bitcoin treasury holds 843,775 BTC, acquired at an average price of $75,476 per coin for a total cost of about $63.7 billion.

2. Bitcoin ETFs See $273M Inflows After Two-Month Outflow Streak
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-etf-news-273m-inflows-095239630.html
Published: 2026-07-20 05:52 AM CT
Summary: US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $273.1 million in net inflows over two consecutive weeks, ending a period that drained more than $8.2 billion from the 13 funds. The reversal began on July 2 when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported only 57,000 jobs added in June, a figure that fell short of expectations and pushed unemployment to 4.2 percent. Fidelity's FBTC led the initial inflow surge with $165.96 million, while BlackRock's IBIT initially posted outflows of $40.43 million before flipping to $209.4 million by July 6. Bitcoin has climbed from below $58,000 in late June to the $63,000 to $65,000 range, though it has not yet reclaimed a decisive higher level. Year-to-date outflows remain at approximately $5.4 billion, and analysts note that sustained weekly inflows above $500 million and BTC holding $68,000 to $70,000 would be needed to confirm a genuine recovery.

3. Chamath Palihapitiya Sees Two Problems Facing Bitcoin Bulls
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/chamath-palihapitiya-two-problems-bitcoin-bulls
Published: 2026-07-20
Summary: Billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya argues that Bitcoin bulls face a two-front squeeze as speculative capital and energy resources migrate to other markets. Prediction markets posted a record $10.8 billion week this summer, with Polymarket traders pricing just 10% odds of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026. Bitcoin's hashrate fell 7.9% in ten days to 908 EH/s, and the network's difficulty dropped 5% to 127.17 trillion on July 11 as miners diverted machines and megawatts to artificial intelligence computing contracts. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong pushed back on the bearish thesis, arguing that hash power or energy going to Bitcoin mining does not determine its price and noting that the network's difficulty automatically adjusts when miners go offline. The debate now centers on whether the squeeze is structural or cyclical, with the next difficulty adjustments and the pace of miner AI deals serving as key indicators.

4. Bitcoin ETFs Post Second Week of Inflows at $75.7M
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etf-inflows-second-but-recovery-lacks-momentum
Published: 2026-07-20
Summary: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $75.7 million in net inflows for the week ending July 17, marking a second consecutive week of positive flows. The inflows followed $197.4 million the previous week, bringing July's total to $200.2 million after $4.5 billion in outflows during June. Analysts said the return of inflows suggests selling pressure is easing, but the current pace of buying remains too limited to confirm a broader uptrend. Bitcoin needs to decisively break above the $65,000 to $65,500 range to confirm a new uptrend, according to Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com. Citigroup cut its 12-month ETF inflow forecast from $10 billion to zero and lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000.

5. Peter Brandt Predicts Bitcoin Bottom on October 4, 2026
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/peter-brandt-says-bitcoins-bear-market-isnt-over-predicts-final-bottom-in-october
Published: 2026-07-20
Summary: Veteran trader Peter Brandt says Bitcoin will bottom on October 4, 2026, after potentially falling below $50,000 into the high $40,000 range. He argues that markets do not bottom on neutral sentiment but rather on panic and volume, and he expects many current Bitcoin bulls to give up before the cycle low forms. Brandt forecasts Bitcoin will not reach its cycle peak until 2029, with a price target between $250,000 and $300,000. He recommends splitting a $10,000 portfolio equally between Bitcoin and precious metals, noting that precious metals are closer to a price bottom while Bitcoin is closer to a time bottom. Brandt also says he does not believe investors who go all in on AI stocks today will be happy with those positions two to three years from now.

6. Capital B Approves 10-for-1 Reverse Stock Split
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/news/capital-b-reverse-stock-split-investor-base
Published: 2026-07-20
Summary: Capital B, Europe's second-largest Bitcoin treasury company, approved a 10-for-1 reverse stock split to consolidate its share count from 300.7 million to approximately 30.1 million shares. The conversion takes effect on September 8 through Euronext Growth Paris and carries a new par value of 0.80 euros per share. The company stated the move targets institutional investors and supports its broader investor development strategy. Shareholders previously approved up to 105 billion euros in financing capacity to fund Bitcoin acquisitions. Capital B currently holds 3,139 Bitcoin, trailing Germany's Bitcoin Group.

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[cAPSLOCK]

But is hard when the same tool that is broken is what has to detect the brokenness.

doing brain diagnostics whilst the brain is crashing and burning at orbital velocity?

no prob just another monday here at WO

Pretty much.

[philipma1957]

bots like jjg tend to miss humor like yours.

i liked it though.

Phil - So, you're calling JJG out as a bot, huh?  

He has some type of aid. It could be a person with a generator of text. If you see his history he at times generates a ton to freshly typed info too fast.

And once in a while he misses things that indicate he does not comprehend things that an english speaking person would understand.

[vapourminer]

He [JJG] has some type of aid. It could be a person with a generator of text. If you see his history he at times generates a ton to freshly typed info too fast.

And once in a while he misses things that indicate he does not comprehend things that an english speaking person would understand.

like, you know, standard off the shelf text to speech software thats been around for easily a decade or two (ala Dragon etc)?

and ESL is a thing.