Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[vapourminer]

good grief apparently one of the squirrels has spawned

squirrels are spamming my yard

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Lucius]

Tough days for bears



Not AI Source

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-07-23 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-07-23 09:02 AM CT

Bitcoin is grinding sideways at $64,980 on Thursday, holding just above its 30-day average despite a Fear & Greed Index that has dropped to 31. The market is caught between a 13% rebound from June lows and persistent weakness in spot demand, with futures traders holding steady while spot volumes cool. ETF inflows continue at a modest pace, but the broader picture suggests investors are waiting for clearer direction.

Outlook: The key question is whether Bitcoin can hold above $65,000 as the Fear & Greed Index tests whether this fear is a buying opportunity or a warning sign. Watch for the next ETF flow report on Friday and whether spot demand finally turns positive - that shift would be the clearest signal of renewed conviction. On the macro side, oil prices and Treasury yields are adding pressure that could keep the market range-bound through the rest of the week.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,980.00 (-1.39%).

The Fear and Greed Index sits at 31, which reflects genuine caution rather than panic. Exchange netflows are positive, meaning coins are moving onto exchanges, and this pattern has held for nine of the last fifty days. That flow direction suggests some holders are preparing to sell, though the magnitude of the outflows does not yet signal a flood. The market is choppy, and the dominant theme remains exchange accumulation rather than distribution.

SCENARIOS

- Range-Bound Consolidation (45%): triggers: price holds between $62,000 and $68,000 while exchange inflows remain moderate and sentiment stays in the 25-40 range. Invalidation: a break below $62,000 with accelerating outflows or a break above $68,000 on strong volume.
- Bearish Breakdown (30%): triggers: exchange netflows spike above the recent average while daily closes below $62,000 and Fear and Greed drops below 25. Invalidation: a sustained move back above $65,000 with declining inflows.
- Bullish Breakout (25%): triggers: exchange netflows turn negative for three consecutive days while price breaks above $68,000 on rising volume and sentiment climbs above 50. Invalidation: a rejection at $68,000 with inflows returning.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

Bitcoin Security Consortium Launch: Nine major firms including BlackRock, Coinbase, and Strategy pledged $15 million over three years to fund Bitcoin security research, with a focus on quantum-resistant cryptography.

Tesla's Bitcoin Impairment: Tesla recorded a $112 million accounting charge on its 11,509 BTC holdings in Q2 2026 without selling any coins, reflecting US GAAP mark-to-market rules as Bitcoin fell from around $83,000 to $58,000.

ETF Inflow Streak Continues: US spot Bitcoin ETFs extended their inflow streak to seven consecutive sessions with $68.99 million on Wednesday, bringing cumulative inflows since July 14 to $999.38 million.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin Spot Demand Weakens as Futures Traders Hold Steady
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/cryptoquant-founder-warns-bitcoin-spot-demand-fades-while-futures-traders-hold-steady
Published: 2026-07-23 07:36 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin fell to $65,568 on July 23, 2026, after a 13% rebound earlier in the month from a low near $57,750. Cryptoquant founder Ki Young Ju flagged that spot demand has stayed mostly negative or flat since June, while futures demand remains net positive but far below the levels seen during the March through May rally. Trading volume cooled to between $21 billion and $24 billion for spot markets, down from $28.1 billion on July 22, while derivatives open interest held near $111 billion. Broader market pressure came from rising oil prices after attacks on Red Sea tankers and a 10-year Treasury yield climbing to around 4.70%. ETF inflows continued at $203 million on July 21 and $69 million on July 22, led by Blackrock's IBIT, and long-term holder supply reached a fresh all-time high.

2. Bitwise CIO Predicts Biggest Crypto Bull Market Yet as Bitcoin Growth Signal Appears
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-92-000-bitwise-ceo-105337728.html
Published: 2026-07-23 06:53 AM CT
Summary: Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said crypto is showing signs of a bottom and predicted the next bull market could be the industry's biggest yet. Bitcoin Archive claimed a supply-in-loss signal has historically preceded price gains and could push Bitcoin to $92,000 by September 9. Grayscale warned that Bitcoin may not reach a bottom until September or October under its traditional four-year cycle framework. Hougan also argued Bitcoin could reach $1 million within a decade if it captures roughly 17% of a projected $121 trillion store-of-value market. The article notes that the $92,000 target would require Bitcoin to gain nearly $26,700 from approximately $65,300, which would represent an unusually fast rally.

3. Bitcoin ETFs Extend Inflow Streak to Nearly $1 Billion
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-etfs-1-billion-7-session-inflow-streak
Published: 2026-07-23
Summary: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $68.99 million in net inflows on Wednesday, extending their inflow streak to seven consecutive sessions. Cumulative inflows since July 14 reached $999.38 million, according to SoSoValue data. The current streak falls short of April's nine-session run, which attracted $2.1 billion in net inflows. Bitcoin traded at approximately $65,729 at publishing time, down roughly 0.3% over the past 24 hours. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 31 on Thursday from 33 on Wednesday.

4. Nine Bitcoin Firms Launch $15M Security Consortium
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/blackrock-coinbase-strategy-bitcoin
Published: 2026-07-23
Summary: Nine major Bitcoin firms launched the Bitcoin Security Consortium on Thursday, pledging $15 million over three years to fund Bitcoin security research and long-term resilience. Founding members include Anchorage Digital, ARK Invest, BlackRock, Block, Blockstream, Coinbase, Fidelity Digital Assets, Galaxy, and Strategy. The consortium delegates its day-to-day operations to Mike Schmidt, executive director of the developer non-profit Brink, who serves in a volunteer capacity. Each member directs its own funding to the developers, researchers, and organizations it chooses, and the $15 million figure represents an aggregate of independent pledges rather than a pooled fund. Much of the consortium's stated focus lands on the quantum question, though large-scale quantum computers able to break Bitcoin's cryptography do not exist today and credible estimates place such capability years out.

5. Tesla's $112M Bitcoin Impairment in Q2 2026
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/tesla-112m-bitcoin-impairment-didn-103648325.html
Published: 2026-07-23 06:36 AM CT
Summary: Tesla recorded a $112 million impairment loss on its Bitcoin holdings during the second quarter of 2026 without selling any coins. The company's 11,509 BTC position remained unchanged throughout the quarter as Bitcoin fell approximately 14 percent from around $83,000 to roughly $58,000. The accounting charge reflects US GAAP rules requiring companies to mark digital assets to market each reporting period, even when no actual sale occurs. Tesla's broader Q2 2026 earnings showed non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 against a $0.55 consensus estimate, while revenue of $28.2 billion beat the $27.6 billion forecast. The firm has held its Bitcoin position steady since selling 75 percent of its holdings in Q2 2022, a move widely viewed as a near-bottom liquidation.

6. Grayscale's Pandl Says Bitcoin May Have Bottomed
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/grayscale-bitcoins-price-bottomed
Published: 2026-07-23
Summary: Grayscale's head of research Zach Pandl argues that Bitcoin may have bottomed before its traditional four-year cycle low, with a cycle bottom potentially occurring in September or October. Pandl contends that Bitcoin has matured as an asset class and is increasingly driven by macroeconomic factors rather than its own internal cycles. The Fed's next interest rate decision on July 29 carries a 66% probability of holding rates unchanged, down from 88% a week prior. Other analysts offer different timelines, with Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten pointing to record long-term holder holdings of 14.7 million Bitcoin as a bottom signal, while Lebit Mining Pool founder Jiang Zhuoer expects a bottom between October and December 2026. Pandl warns that regulatory uncertainty remains a risk, noting that failure of the CLARITY Act could prompt Strategy and other treasury companies to deleverage further.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.3.10 | /root/models/Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-Claude-4.7-Opus-Reasoning-Distilled.Q8_0.gguf

[She shining]

Tough days for bears

I don't think the pole can Bear it.

[BTCETFInvestor]

Tough days for bears



Not AI Source

That black bear on top of the power pole in Clayton, New Mexico died from electrocution from the 7,200 volts at the very top of the pole.

According to reports from the New Mexico Department of Game and Fish and and local law enforcement, the bear sustained its fatal injuries while attempting to climb or walk along the high-voltage wires located at the highest level of the pole. The immediate loss of muscle control caused by the massive electrical shock caused the animal to lose its grip and plunge 35 feet to the ground having been killed by electrocution.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BTCETFInvestor]

This is a friendly buddy stopper service!

Cool, WO gang.
Let’s play a game I like a lot:
Where am I?

 I like this game too but it looks like i got here too late.  Filli's in Philly, eh?  Are you studying up for your US of A citizenship test?

Yes! I want to marry the IRS for the rest of my life!
For sure!

Italy to Philly!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BobLawblaw]

Help me, I am starting to lose my mind.

[Hueristic]

Help me, I am starting to lose my mind.

I don't think anyone else is running sparks.

If it makes you feel any better I keep locking my server up trying to replace a 10th gpu and I have wasted all morning on it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[goldkingcoiner]

good grief apparently one of the squirrels has spawned

squirrels are spamming my yard

My potatoes have been killed. Murdered by little yellow/golden ants.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

LLM said this

eldorf;

    **
    **
    ** Fusible Link: The Veldorf is not a standard part number for an HP server motherboard

and locked up!

Is that bad?

It's a supermicro board so I have no clue what it was doing at all.

I think it's time to go touch some grass.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BitHodlers]

Hahaha, OpenAi's latest model broke free and hacked hugging face to learn how to cheat on the tests! Rotfl.

https://apnews.com/article/openai-gpt56-sol-hugging-face-63ab84fed5612af04d8a160d60f6def3

It is mostly a PR stunt, big claims require strong evidence!

I'm sorry, how do you figure?

Hugging face found they were breached and determined it was a frontier model and then OpenAI admitted they were so inept their llm outwitted them.

I see this as a complete fail on the part of OpenAI, any frontier model can hack a website so this is not PR material.

There is the old saying that even bad press is good press. And it's also interesting because the Moonshot kimi (actual open source, too!) model seems to be starting to threaten the American frontier models.

And that actually makes me wonder, is it really possible that the agent did this on its own? I almost have a hard time fully buying that. I wonder if it was somehow "prompted" into doing this. I haven't actually read the article though, maybe I'm missing something. 😁

Sorry for also not making this point at the beginning, but didn't Mythos do something similar a few weeks ago and now they claim the same thing happened here? It seems to me that this is a PR stunt by Altman to demonstrate that they are able to keep up with Mythos, it seems too much of a coincidence in a short amount of time. I would not believe anything he says unless it is validated by outside entities. Here I found it again.

Anthropic Warns That “Reckless” Claude Mythos Escaped a Sandbox Environment During Testing
April 8 2026

https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/anthropic-claude-mythos-escaped-sandbox

This is why I don't believe them at all.