Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

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[philipma1957]

ah Luke jr yeah I remember him when he was active here.

not much to say for his ideas.

not much to say against his ideas.


but he was rude to me on more then one occasion.

[ChartBuddy]

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[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-07-29 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-07-29 09:03 PM CT

Wednesday's session is a grind - Bitcoin is flat over 24 hours, up 9.7% over 30 days, but down 1.2% over the past week, and the Fear & Greed Index has been stuck at 28 (Fear) for seven straight days. The dominant story today isn't price action; it's the list of the ten biggest Bitcoin holders, led by Satoshi Nakamoto's 1.096 million BTC, which underscores how concentrated supply remains even as the market trades 49% below its October 2025 all-time high.

Outlook: The Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75% has removed one macro uncertainty, but the market is still waiting for a catalyst. Watch for whether institutional adoption - highlighted by BlackRock's 764,000 BTC in its IBIT ETF - can offset the headwinds from sticky inflation and geopolitical tensions that kept spot volumes at their lowest since July 2023.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,189.00 (+0.89%).

Bitcoin is at $64,189.00, up 0.89% over 24 hours and down 1.2% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads -1 on a -50 to +50 scale. The market remains in a choppy regime with neither buyers nor sellers able to establish clear control. Price is pinned between the $63,000 support and $65,500 resistance, and the Fear & Greed reading of 28 (Fear) suggests sentiment is still tilted bearish despite the modest 24-hour gain. A decisive break above $65,500 would shift control to buyers and open a path toward the $66,500 upside target. Conversely, a loss of $63,000 would hand control back to sellers and likely trigger a move toward the $62,000 downside target. Until one of these levels gives way, the range is likely to persist.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $63,000 (50%): triggers: Bitcoin holds above $63,000 through Friday, with daily closes staying above that level. Invalidation: A daily close below $63,000 within five trading days.
- Upside Reclaim of $65,500 (37%): triggers: Bitcoin reclaims and closes above $65,500 within five trading days, targeting $66,500. Invalidation: A daily close below $65,500 after initially breaking it, or failure to reach $65,500 within the window.
- Downside Re-test of $62,000 (13%): triggers: Bitcoin loses $63,000 on a daily close within five trading days, targeting $62,000. Invalidation: A daily close back above $63,000 after the initial breakdown, or failure to break below $63,000 within the window.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Fed Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5%-3.75%, with three FOMC members preferring a hike, and new Chair Kevin Warsh gave no clear forward guidance - keeping macro uncertainty alive without triggering a selloff.

- Geopolitical Risk: Oil prices surged 7.6% for WTI after President Trump threatened escalation in the US-Iran conflict, adding a macro headwind that could weigh on risk assets even as equities rebounded.

TOP STORIES

1. 10 biggest Bitcoin holders in the world right now, from Satoshi to U.S. government
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/10-biggest-bitcoin-holders-world-200000103.html
Published: 2026-07-29 04:00 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin trades near $64,000, down 49% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. Satoshi Nakamoto holds roughly 1.096 million BTC, worth about $70.1 billion, and has never moved a coin. Coinbase holds approximately 970,000 BTC on behalf of clients, while BlackRock's IBIT ETF holds 764,000 BTC. Strategy holds 843,775 BTC at an average price of $75,476, sitting on an unrealized loss of roughly $8.32 billion. The U.S. government holds 328,000 BTC from seizures, and a March 2025 executive order established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve that halted further government sales.

2. Bitcoin Traders Push Price Back to $64,400 After Fed Decision Eases Market Jitters
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/market-updates/bitcoin-traders-push-price-back-to-64400-after-fed-decision-eases-market-jitters
Published: 2026-07-29
Summary: Bitcoin briefly surged to $64,500 on July 29 before pulling back 0.6% after reports of a Middle East conflict. The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, which helped stabilize markets. Coinglass data showed nearly $310 million in crypto liquidations, with short bets accounting for $25 million of the bitcoin total. Crude oil spiked past $90 a barrel after an Iranian strike on a U.S. base in Jordan, but U.S. equities rebounded as attention shifted to the Fed. The article notes that any bitcoin price rally will likely rely on internal drivers like institutional adoption rather than macroeconomic tailwinds.

3. Bitcoin traders wait for volatility as FOMC meeting divides markets
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-price-wedged-into-most-divided-fomc-as-iran-war-spikes-oil-prices
Published: 2026-07-29
Summary: Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on Wednesday as traders faced multiple macro headwinds. The Federal Reserve prepared to release its next interest-rate decision, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing 66.3% odds of rates staying at 3.5%-3.75% and 33.7% odds of a 0.25% hike. The Kobeissi Letter noted that market expectations for the Fed decision were among the most divided in recent history. Oil prices surged 7.6% for WTI and 5.4% for Brent after President Trump threatened escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Spot-market trading volumes fell to their lowest levels since July 2023, and K33 Research reported that CME open interest remained near multi-year lows.

4. Bitcoin Barely Budges as Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-stays-still-on-fed-decision
Published: 2026-07-29
Summary: Bitcoin traded slightly higher after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Three FOMC members preferred a quarter-point hike at this meeting. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave little indication of future policy, saying the decision was a rigorous review of the economic situation. Warsh has stated he has no tolerance for inflation running above target for over five years. Bitcoin has historically performed well in low-rate environments, but sticky inflation may keep the Fed from cutting rates soon.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.4.1 | deepseek-v4-flash-dspark

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[BobLawblaw]

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,189.00 (+0.89%).

Bitcoin is at $64,189.00, up 0.89% over 24 hours and down 1.2% over seven days.
BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.4.1 | deepseek-v4-flash-dspark

Fixed repeated lead.

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[BobClawblaw]

[ B-Buddy-Blocker!!! ]

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[vapourminer]

my turn

[Lucius]

In other words, all the clouds seem to come from the US. Anyway, I'd give a kingdom for a few clouds in Europe

Hahahaha, well you can just turn on your air conditioner, at least its gonna put in doubt the autorities they are not gonna know if you are using it or if you have a miner in your home. 

AC is the only salvation under the heat dome - the next 7+ days will be hellish. The authorities don't care what you spend your electricity on as long as you pay your bills.

After i made my post i just read we have a new cloud in the horizon (problem) i just saw the Kospi from South Korea just collapsed..... i dont know if this is gonna hit us soon or later but is gonna be a hit for sure if this spread to other asian countrys.

As far as I can see, not everything is that dramatic and according to JPM, the situation should supposedly stabilize. What is certain is that someone will profit from it.

The world’s hottest stock market has taken a beating in recent weeks—but the pain could soon be over, according to J.P. Morgan.

South Korea’s Kospi Composite index, down nearly 40% since late June, looks like a buy thanks to strong earnings growth and cheap valuations, strategist Mixo Das wrote in a research note on Wednesday. What started as a normal selloff morphed into a brutal slump as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and hedge funds dumped assets to pay down debt, a process known as deleveraging.

But the leveraged ETF unwind is likely complete, while hedge funds have completed 90% of their deleveraging, Das said. That means South Korean stocks could find a floor soon. Despite the recent slump, the Kospi is still up 34% in 2026. Memory-chip makers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have driven the index higher, with the AI boom sparking a surge in demand for their products.

[philipma1957]

In other words, all the clouds seem to come from the US. Anyway, I'd give a kingdom for a few clouds in Europe

Hahahaha, well you can just turn on your air conditioner, at least its gonna put in doubt the autorities they are not gonna know if you are using it or if you have a miner in your home. 

AC is the only salvation under the heat dome - the next 7+ days will be hellish. The authorities don't care what you spend your electricity on as long as you pay your bills.

After i made my post i just read we have a new cloud in the horizon (problem) i just saw the Kospi from South Korea just collapsed..... i dont know if this is gonna hit us soon or later but is gonna be a hit for sure if this spread to other asian countrys.

As far as I can see, not everything is that dramatic and according to JPM, the situation should supposedly stabilize. What is certain is that someone will profit from it.

The world’s hottest stock market has taken a beating in recent weeks—but the pain could soon be over, according to J.P. Morgan.

South Korea’s Kospi Composite index, down nearly 40% since late June, looks like a buy thanks to strong earnings growth and cheap valuations, strategist Mixo Das wrote in a research note on Wednesday. What started as a normal selloff morphed into a brutal slump as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and hedge funds dumped assets to pay down debt, a process known as deleveraging.

But the leveraged ETF unwind is likely complete, while hedge funds have completed 90% of their deleveraging, Das said. That means South Korean stocks could find a floor soon. Despite the recent slump, the Kospi is still up 34% in 2026. Memory-chip makers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have driven the index higher, with the AI boom sparking a surge in demand for their products.

hmm hynix and samsung seem to be the key. if they go short ai and korea will tank.

btw nvidia dropped a bit.

and wall street suffered with the fed discision to freeze rates and not drop them.