Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

Gentlemen, it's been a minute.

Today marks a historical day for my LN node -- it just routed its 1000th btc.

The node has been online for nearly 4 years.

nice work .  I have to do one but just never got to it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

This is a graph of the yield on the 10-year U.S. bond.

This graph can also be seen as what the government will be forced to pay for just interest on its debt.

I wonder if Lyn Alden knew about this thread when she coined the phrase, "nothing stops this train".

I am pretty sure that she referenced the "Breaking Bad', but, perhaps, she might have glanced here a couple of times .

[vapourminer]

wen golden age sirs?

[Biodom]

wen golden age sirs?

It would be visible only afterwards.

EDIT:
From late 1998 to early 2000, I thought that we are at the golden age or it's beginning.
Then, a tumultuous decade followed.

[d_eddie]

wen golden age sirs?

It would be visible only afterwards.

Which means it could be in the past already?

[xhomerx10]

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ocean, the ECB raised rates again. It is said that gas and oil storage levels are low this year, so Europeans can only hope there won't be a harsh winter.

The European Central Bank's governing council lifted the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.5% on Thursday. It is the second hike since 11 June, when the ECB moved for the first time in three years.

 Who would have thought a shortage of the very thing that purportedly causes global warming would leave Europeans hoping for a warmer planet just to survive the winter?  Short on fuel but high on irony.  Maybe it would be Europeans' collective best interest for The Netherlands to stop pumping liquid CO2 underneath Norway and get Germany to fire up one or two of those shuttered nukes.  Well, I guess those infrastructure tax dollars have already been spent on that 50 year old oil recovery technology but they could save some of the energy required to purify, liquify, transport and pump the CO2 and use it for heating fuel.  I believe it requires 100kWh of electricity per tonne.  Ah!  Ursula will keep you all warm with her smile.

[Biodom]

wen golden age sirs?

It would be visible only afterwards.

Which means it could be in the past already?

"The Matrix" marked 1999 as the humanity "peak", remember.

[xhomerx10]

wen golden age sirs?

It would be visible only afterwards.

Which means it could be in the past already?

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-09-11 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-09-11 09:05 PM CT

Bitcoin is grinding sideways with a flat 24-hour move of +0.43%, despite a 30-day gain of +21.85% that keeps price well above the $75,116 moving average. The market is digesting the Liquid Network exploit, where SideSwap reopened L-BTC trading even though the federation reserve covers only 85% of supply, creating a confidence gap rather than a liquidity crisis. Fear & Greed sits at 63 (Greed), but the index has deteriorated by 10 points over the past week, signaling that the initial euphoria from August's rally is fading into cautious consolidation.

Outlook: Traders should monitor whether the Liquid Network's inability to redeem L-BTC for Bitcoin at par creates broader contagion or remains an isolated infrastructure failure. Additionally, keep an eye on Federal Reserve policy expectations, as firmer core inflation data has raised the probability of tighter monetary policy, which could cap upside momentum in the near term.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $77,273.00, up 0.43% over 24 hours and down 3.2% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads -6 on a -50 to +50 scale. Buyers currently hold the floor, but the Fear & Greed index at 63 suggests a disconnect between sentiment and the recent seven-day price erosion. The market is consolidating within a tight band, with the $79,500 resistance acting as a ceiling that has repelled recent attempts at expansion. A decisive break above this level would signal renewed momentum, while a failure to hold $75,000 would likely trigger a deeper correction. The current structure implies that sellers are not yet exhausted, but they lack the volume to push price significantly lower without a broader risk-off catalyst.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $75,000 (41%): triggers: Price remains above $75,000 and fails to close above $79,500 within five trading days. Invalidation: A daily close below $75,000 or above $79,500 within five trading days.
- Breakout Toward $81,500 (26%): triggers: Bitcoin closes above $79,500 with sustained volume within five trading days. Invalidation: Price fails to sustain levels above $79,500 or drops below $75,000 within five trading days.
- Downside Re-test of $73,000 (33%): triggers: Bitcoin closes below $75,000 within five trading days. Invalidation: Price recovers and closes above $75,000 within five trading days.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Infrastructure Trust Deficit: The Liquid Network's reserve shortfall and suspended peg-outs have introduced a structural risk premium to Bitcoin-adjacent assets, forcing traders to price in counterparty risk for wrapped or sidechain derivatives.

TOP STORIES

1. Liquid Bitcoin resumes trading with reserves covering 85% of supply
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/l-btc-resumes-trading-with-reserves-covering-just-85-of-supply
Published: 2026-09-11 07:30 PM CT
Summary: SideSwap reopened trading markets for Liquid Bitcoin (L-BTC) on September 10, even though the Liquid Federation has not yet resumed the process to redeem L-BTC for Bitcoin. On-chain data from that day showed 4,229 L-BTC in circulation against a federation reserve of 3,601 BTC, leaving a coverage gap of approximately 627 BTC. The suspension of peg-outs means holders cannot currently convert their L-BTC back into Bitcoin at par, making the market price a measure of confidence rather than proof of backing. Blockstream CEO Adam Back stated that the peg would receive one-for-one coverage, but the company has not disclosed the method or timeline for restoring the full reserve. Until the federation reopens redemption routes, L-BTC trades as a claim on Bitcoin without a guaranteed exit mechanism.

2. Solo Bitcoin Miner Wins $244K Block Reward After 40-Day Drought
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/mining/solo-bitcoin-miner-hits-244k-jackpot-after-nearly-40-day-drought
Published: 2026-09-11
Summary: A solo miner using the Braiins Solo service discovered block 966351, earning 3.147 BTC worth approximately $244,920. This victory ended a nearly 40-day period without any solo block discoveries on the Bitcoin network. The previous solo block was found on August 2 via Solo CKPool, marking a significant gap in individual miner successes. Large mining pools currently control 78.31% of the network's hashrate, making solo mining statistically difficult for individual participants. Braiins CEO Eli Nagar confirmed the win, highlighting the rarity of such an event in the current industrial mining landscape.

3. Blockstream refuses ransom for remaining 600 BTC from Liquid exploit
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/ecosystems/2026-09-11-return-the-bitcoin-blockstream-refuses-ransom-demand-for-remaining-600-btc-from-liquid-exploit-414247
Published: 2026-09-11
Summary: Blockstream stated it will not pay a ransom to recover the remaining 598.5 BTC stolen during the recent Liquid Network exploit. The attacker previously returned approximately 3,400 BTC after Blockstream patched the vulnerability in the Elements software, but retained the final tranche of funds. The exploit involved the creation of unbacked LBTC, which was converted to BTC through a standard peg-out process using a compromised authorization key. Blockstream characterized the withholding of assets as theft rather than responsible disclosure and warned that it would work with law enforcement to trace the stolen bitcoin. Liquid Network transactions have resumed, but peg-outs remain disabled while the company works to restore the BTC/LBTC reserve.

4. CoinShares: Hot Inflation Caps Bitcoin Short-Term, Buyback Failure Boosts Long-Term Case
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/bitcoin-has-unusual-mix-says-coinshares
Published: 2026-09-11 04:22 PM CT
Summary: CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill stated that firmer-than-expected core inflation raises the odds of tighter Federal Reserve policy, potentially capping bitcoin below $80,000 in the short term. August core CPI data rose 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding forecasts and leading traders to assign an 85% probability of higher interest rates following the next Fed meeting. However, the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buyback programme has failed to materially suppress long-term yields, creating pressure for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to escalate to a larger intervention. Butterfill argued that this potential escalation could serve as a powerful medium-term catalyst for bitcoin by reinforcing the debasement trade narrative. Bitcoin and gold have recently benefited from this trade as investors hedge against currency devaluation, with bitcoin posting one of its best runs in years in August.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.5.9 | qwen3.8-flash-next

[Hueristic]

3. Blockstream refuses ransom for remaining 600 BTC from Liquid exploit
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/ecosystems/2026-09-11-return-the-bitcoin-blockstream-refuses-ransom-demand-for-remaining-600-btc-from-liquid-exploit-414247
Published: 2026-09-11
Summary: Blockstream stated it will not pay a ransom to recover the remaining 598.5 BTC stolen during the recent Liquid Network exploit. The attacker previously returned approximately 3,400 BTC after Blockstream patched the vulnerability in the Elements software, but retained the final tranche of funds. The exploit involved the creation of unbacked LBTC, which was converted to BTC through a standard peg-out process using a compromised authorization key. Blockstream characterized the withholding of assets as theft rather than responsible disclosure and warned that it would work with law enforcement to trace the stolen bitcoin. Liquid Network transactions have resumed, but peg-outs remain disabled while the company works to restore the BTC/LBTC reserve.

I'm stunned, wonder whats going to happen the next time they fuck up again.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[OgNasty]

Gentlemen, it's been a minute.

Today marks a historical day for my LN node -- it just routed its 1000th btc.

The node has been online for nearly 4 years.

I’m not a fan of the lightning network but this quite an accomplishment. Any idea how much in fees your node has netted during that time period?

I do think people should consider the current Liquid Network issues as a warning of what will happen to the Lightning Network someday. LBTC is not BTC.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com