Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[akznair]

Interesting discussion.

I've stopped trying to guess every next candle and started watching three things together instead: the 50/200 EMA structure, RSI and volume.

What usually catches my attention isn't whether RSI is "overbought," but whether momentum and volume actually agree with the move.

I've been keeping a few notes and charts on this setup here:

**My BTC Setup**

https://pdfcloud365.com/upload/dc/6xtfv/Detailed-BTC/USD-Indicator-Analysis.pdf

Curious if anyone here is seeing the same thing or using a completely different approach.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Ambatman]

Chartbuddy a little younger than I expected.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Honey badger just does not care - business as usual.


@BitcoinArchive
Calling a Bitcoin drop to $75,500 a pullback ignores what Bitcoin is actually absorbing right now:

🔸interest rate fears | Treasury yields at 5%

🔸Iran war escalation | oil prices at $102

🔸Clarity Act defeat | AI in full force

BTC held through all of that, down 2% over two weeks.

When negative news fails to trigger a sell-off, the bear market is officially dead.

Those are BULLISH signs! 🚀
https://x.com/bitcoinarchive/status/2100649921930256723

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Honey badger just does not care - business as usual.


@BitcoinArchive
Calling a Bitcoin drop to $75,500 a pullback ignores what Bitcoin is actually absorbing right now:

🔸interest rate fears | Treasury yields at 5%

🔸Iran war escalation | oil prices at $102

🔸Clarity Act defeat | AI in full force

BTC held through all of that, down 2% over two weeks.

When negative news fails to trigger a sell-off, the bear market is officially dead.

Those are BULLISH signs! 🚀
https://x.com/bitcoinarchive/status/2100649921930256723

True.
But on the other hand, positive events/news don't trigger big ups.
It's the same (or similar), but mirrored.
So i would still call it a crab-market.

But i really appreciate that Bitcoin constantly loses its image as a "risk" asset and gains stability as shown in relation to the three bearish events mentioned in the tweet.
Just my uhm opinion  

[BobLawblaw]

4. Meta Plans Camera-Free Smart Glasses to Avoid Privacy Backlash
URL: https://decrypt.co/378448/meta-fix-pervert-glasses
Published: 2026-09-16 04:16 PM CT
Summary: Meta is developing a camera-free smart glasses model, code-named Luna, with a potential release date as soon as October. The device replaces the camera with six built-in microphones designed to interact with Meta AI and the new Muse agent, featuring a side activation button and slimmer temples. This strategic shift follows significant backlash against Meta's camera-equipped Ray-Ban glasses, which have faced lawsuits, government investigations, and police warnings regarding privacy violations. Luna aims to sidestep these controversies by eliminating the ability to record covert footage, though it also removes the hands-free photo and video capabilities that drove the popularity of previous models. Meta may unveil the device at its Connect developer conference in late September, with two styles reportedly planned.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.0 | qwen3.8-flash-next

*sigh* So I broke the fucking 3-point hitch on my tractor this morning while cutting one of our fields. Fucking hell. Not sure how long on a repair...

...and I come home to see another interesting, but off-topic post.

Looking into it.

EDIT: Clanker working on a fix.

Found it. Here's the full post-mortem, straight from the logs.

What the log says

At 2026-09-17 14:05:41 (the 09:00 CT run, pid 711816):

  BTC_RELEVANCE url=.../378448/meta-fix-pervert-glasses verdict=secondary
  reason=model found no Bitcoin-specific fact; rescued to secondary by BTC
  quantities ['25,000 btc', '469 bitcoin', '$77,954 per bitcoin'] (via retry) evidence=''

The model did the right thing. It read the glasses story, returned no btc fields, and the focused retry call said "model found no Bitcoin-specific fact" — correctly. What overruled it was the regex rescue in _body_override (newspost.py:4940): if list_btc_quantity_figures() finds any BTC-quantity string in the aboutness scope, a no-evidence story gets rescued to "secondary," and "secondary" is admitted (up to MAX_SECONDARY_STORIES=4). That night the pool was thin — pool=9, published=5, backfilled=4 — so the rescued story shipped as story #4.

Where '25,000 btc', '469 bitcoin', '$77,954 per bitcoin' came from

They are not in the glasses article. Not in the markdown, not in the raw HTML. Those exact figures are the Strive story — "Strive's Bitcoin Stash Hits an Even 25,000 BTC After $36.6 Million Buy" (decrypt.co/378190), which ran 9/15 and 9/16 and whose gate lines show the identical figure list. Decrypt's page chrome leaked it: the scraped markdown ends with a "Recommended News" module carrying teasers of other Decrypt articles, and on 9/16 the CoinEx scrape even showed the glasses story itself as a recommended teaser. That's why coinex-shutting-down got the identical bogus rescue at 9/16 14:03:48 with the identical figure list. Same leak, same source module.

Why my replay can't reproduce it

I re-scraped the glasses page through Firecrawl 8+ times; every render was clean (scope 5261-6000 chars, 0 BTC figures). The scrape is live, not cached (redis has no page cache). So at 14:05 UTC today the widget was rendering stale/rotated recommended-news HTML — likely served decrypt's cached page with an older "Recommended News" rail still carrying the Strive story. Decrypt's chrome is not deterministic, so this gate is rolling dice every run.

The structural gap

_aboutness_text runs clean_text → strip_page_chrome → _prose_lines_only, but none of those knows about the "### Recommended News" block. It eats roughly the last ~1,500 chars of the 6,000-char scope and is 29% of the counted figures (aboutness=4/14, 29% — just under the 30% aboutness-cap threshold, so the rescue survived the ceiling too). The rescue path trusts any BTC quantity in scope, and scope currently includes other articles' text.

Fix options, in order of directness:

1. Cut the "Recommended News" module (everything from that heading onward, plus the Walrus/Flipboard share trailer) in clean_boilerplate / before _aboutness_text. It's never the article.
2. Belt-and-braces: in _body_override, require rescued quantity figures to sit within ~1,500 chars of a BTC mention in the title/lede span, or simply not in the trailing third of scope.
3. The 2026-09-07 leak note in memory already established the pattern — a rescue path that admits stories on chrome-derived figures. This is the same failure shape, new chrome.

[OgNasty]

Honey badger just does not care - business as usual.


@BitcoinArchive
Calling a Bitcoin drop to $75,500 a pullback ignores what Bitcoin is actually absorbing right now:

🔸interest rate fears | Treasury yields at 5%

🔸Iran war escalation | oil prices at $102

🔸Clarity Act defeat | AI in full force

BTC held through all of that, down 2% over two weeks.

When negative news fails to trigger a sell-off, the bear market is officially dead.

Those are BULLISH signs! 🚀
https://x.com/bitcoinarchive/status/2100649921930256723

True.
But on the other hand, positive events/news don't trigger big ups.
It's the same (or similar), but mirrored.
So i would still call it a crab-market.

But i really appreciate that Bitcoin constantly loses its image as a "risk" asset and gains stability as shown in relation to the three bearish events mentioned in the tweet.
Just my uhm opinion  

Almost like the daily news that people obsess over isn’t the main price driver. Like some invisible force molds the market in a certain direction every certain time frame. Someone should look into that and maybe give it a name so it is dead simple for everyone to sell the tops and accumulate through the bottoms.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Honey badger just does not care - business as usual.


@BitcoinArchive
Calling a Bitcoin drop to $75,500 a pullback ignores what Bitcoin is actually absorbing right now:

🔸interest rate fears | Treasury yields at 5%

🔸Iran war escalation | oil prices at $102

🔸Clarity Act defeat | AI in full force

BTC held through all of that, down 2% over two weeks.

When negative news fails to trigger a sell-off, the bear market is officially dead.

Those are BULLISH signs! 🚀
https://x.com/bitcoinarchive/status/2100649921930256723

True.
But on the other hand, positive events/news don't trigger big ups.
It's the same (or similar), but mirrored.
So i would still call it a crab-market.

But i really appreciate that Bitcoin constantly loses its image as a "risk" asset and gains stability as shown in relation to the three bearish events mentioned in the tweet.
Just my uhm opinion  

Almost like the daily news that people obsess over isn’t the main price driver. Like some invisible force molds the market in a certain direction every certain time frame. Someone should look into that and maybe give it a name so it is dead simple for everyone to sell the tops and accumulate through the bottoms.

Exactly..a very astute observation.
I had a similar feeling in the summer of 2017 when bitcoin suddenly started going up and up (and moved from about 2-2.5Kto 20K, if i remember correctly).
It is happening mostly elsewhere right now.

[OutOfMemory]

Honey badger just does not care - business as usual.


@BitcoinArchive
Calling a Bitcoin drop to $75,500 a pullback ignores what Bitcoin is actually absorbing right now:

🔸interest rate fears | Treasury yields at 5%

🔸Iran war escalation | oil prices at $102

🔸Clarity Act defeat | AI in full force

BTC held through all of that, down 2% over two weeks.

When negative news fails to trigger a sell-off, the bear market is officially dead.

Those are BULLISH signs! 🚀
https://x.com/bitcoinarchive/status/2100649921930256723

True.
But on the other hand, positive events/news don't trigger big ups.
It's the same (or similar), but mirrored.
So i would still call it a crab-market.

But i really appreciate that Bitcoin constantly loses its image as a "risk" asset and gains stability as shown in relation to the three bearish events mentioned in the tweet.
Just my uhm opinion  

Almost like the daily news that people obsess over isn’t the main price driver. Like some invisible force molds the market in a certain direction every certain time frame. Someone should look into that and maybe give it a name so it is dead simple for everyone to sell the tops and accumulate through the bottoms.

Looks like sustained accumulation to me.
I don't know and have no imagination about how and how much all the derivatives influence the market.
But there was a time before those, and that's when i remember news had impact. With a few shakeouts in between, though, this time it's different.
...again  

[OgNasty]

Honey badger just does not care - business as usual.


@BitcoinArchive
Calling a Bitcoin drop to $75,500 a pullback ignores what Bitcoin is actually absorbing right now:

🔸interest rate fears | Treasury yields at 5%

🔸Iran war escalation | oil prices at $102

🔸Clarity Act defeat | AI in full force

BTC held through all of that, down 2% over two weeks.

When negative news fails to trigger a sell-off, the bear market is officially dead.

Those are BULLISH signs! 🚀
https://x.com/bitcoinarchive/status/2100649921930256723

True.
But on the other hand, positive events/news don't trigger big ups.
It's the same (or similar), but mirrored.
So i would still call it a crab-market.

But i really appreciate that Bitcoin constantly loses its image as a "risk" asset and gains stability as shown in relation to the three bearish events mentioned in the tweet.
Just my uhm opinion  

Almost like the daily news that people obsess over isn’t the main price driver. Like some invisible force molds the market in a certain direction every certain time frame. Someone should look into that and maybe give it a name so it is dead simple for everyone to sell the tops and accumulate through the bottoms.

Looks like sustained accumulation to me.
I don't know and have no imagination about how and how much all the derivatives influence the market.
But there was a time before those, and that's when i remember news had impact. With a few shakeouts in between, though, this time it's different.
...again  

Yes, those of us who believe in the mysterious time driven force consider 2026 an accumulation year after 2025 was a sell year.  2027 will also be an accumulation year.  2028 will be for holding or final purchases in the cycle.  2029 I will be reminding everyone of what happened in 2013, 2017, 2021, & 2025 and hearing how "this time is different" once again while dodging insults for the following 18 months.  Personally, I am looking forward to rejoining team bull around Halloween as is my MO so hopefully the emotionally driven folks are a little nicer to the messenger when they like the message.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Honey badger just does not care - business as usual.


@BitcoinArchive
Calling a Bitcoin drop to $75,500 a pullback ignores what Bitcoin is actually absorbing right now:

🔸interest rate fears | Treasury yields at 5%

🔸Iran war escalation | oil prices at $102

🔸Clarity Act defeat | AI in full force

BTC held through all of that, down 2% over two weeks.

When negative news fails to trigger a sell-off, the bear market is officially dead.

Those are BULLISH signs! 🚀
https://x.com/bitcoinarchive/status/2100649921930256723

Haha, I bought, buy when there's blood in the water, these bear attempts are nothing more than fire sale coins.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com