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September 29, 2026, 05:15:27 PM *
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Question: Is the "bear market" over?
Yes - 42 (40%)
No - we need to sweep the low again - 23 (21.9%)
No - we need to set a new low first - 25 (23.8%)
No - other (explain below) - 15 (14.3%)
Total Voters: 105

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 27057100 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Hueristic
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September 27, 2026, 11:18:28 PM
Last edit: September 27, 2026, 11:38:56 PM by Hueristic
Merited by El duderino_ (9)

Correct, in 2 different browsers that i have never signed into google on and they both have songs like spirit in the sky which is pretty specific and not mainstream to recommend for a 20 song playlist. As well as others that are in the recommended playlist while signed in. I guess I can check on another system i've never signed in anything on like the server and that would show if they are tying to ip addy.

https://youtu.be/W2msh0jut2Y?list=RDMM

BTW, always loved that encabulator  vid!

I also get Spirit in the Sky from the Scorpions list.



It is one that could potentially be on my account playlist but the others listed (and others not shown in the image) not so much.

Aha, that is not a generated list, its a created playlist that is tied to the scorpions initial song, that's the reason!

Thanks man, Occams razor. Smiley

When will I learn not to believe the bullshit they spew "Mixes are playlists YouTube makes for you".
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September 27, 2026, 11:28:28 PM
Last edit: September 27, 2026, 11:41:48 PM by JayJuanGee
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Several analysts are looking for a weekly closing (conventionally placed on Sunday at 23:59) above 83k to confirm a recovery clearing the old resistance. That could open up a clear path to the next one, which IIRC is just below 90k. Not sure actually, it's not like I'm immersed in twatter crypto chatter.

Assuming the crowd of armchair pundits to be right, we've been consistently over 83k recently anyway. However, these Sunday moves are not too significant per se. Let's hope the UP goes on tomorrow, and with some meaningful volume.

Even though I tend to not be much of a fan of "sentiment" as a way to measure where bitcoin is at or to anticipate where bitcoin might go, there tends to be some value in considering the weekly close (and yeah, you are referring to 23:59 UTC).

Of course, closing weekly candles are not do or die or make or break, even though it can be interesting to watch both where they close but also how they close, since sometimes there can be a lot of price movement at or around the weekly candle in order to seemingly attempt to get such weekly candle to move in a "favorable" way.

Just like I have tinglies (perhaps similar to "our" favorite cross-eyed fairy?) in paying attention to the 200-WMA - I also find weekly candles to be interesting ..including weekly candle trends.. so for example in April and also in July there were 4 weekly candles in a row.. yet they still did not end up resulting in any kind of a break out, and historically there have been challenges to achieve 6 or more green weekly candles, even though 6 or more green weekly candles does end up happening from time to time.

Right now, even if we go back to our mid-June low of $57,735, we 8 out of the 12 weekly candles as green, and the most in a row that we had as green was 4 weekly candles.  Currently, if this weekly candle closes as green, we ONLY have two weekly candles in a row as green - even though surely, it seems as a bit of a given that this week's candle is going to end up green, since it would have to go below $81,152 for this week's candle to convert from green to red.

By the way, sometimes we might want to look at weekly candles and to see them going up gradually and continuing to be green rather than if there ends up being a lot of movement in one week that ends up not being sustainable.

At the same time, we can look lovey-dovey at the weekly candles, yet still retain little to no predictive power whether the upcoming week is going to end up green or red...even though maybe starting out the weekly candle positively will give more faith that the positive price might be sustainable through the week to cause the weekly candle's outcome to end up being green.

Sure, there are monthly candles too, but they don't seem as practical for ongoing and regular monitoring in an investment (rather than a trading sense).

In the end, I will admit that I don't seem to be being saying much of anything about my tentative cccccccciiitttttteeeeee!!!! perspective in regards to weekly candle developments - except for admitting that I have a wee bit of affinity for those kinds of squiggly variants.

we got over 85k for a bit.

wen 91k?
We will see it very soon.You go to sleep and wake up and you will see. Cool

What are the odds? Does not seem to be very high odds, except for some hanging on to wishful thinking.

Don't get me wrong, I am not putting $91k within a few hours to be out of the question, since even if we take our current price of $84,451-ish, $91k would be merely a 7.75% increase in the price, so bitcoin could do that in its sleep - yet asking for it and even hoping for it or even proclaiming such a thing to be impending seems a bit fantastical rather than based in any kind of meaningful grounding.

Maybe if a bet were made, then specifics could be sussed out in terms of who believes what and how strongly such supposed believers stand behind their proclamations about what bitcoin is going to do and when it is going to do it?

We just had our 6th bank failure this year.  California's Nano Banc was shut down on Friday.  High interest rates given as a reason.  There were 2 bank failures in all of last year, so you can see the problem is accelerating.  With rates still rising, you can expect more banks to fail in the coming months.  While it is nice that the Bitcoin price has been rising, the global economic situation continues to get worse.  We are in a 2008 situation here and the only thing that is keeping the economy together is inflation has muted housing declines so people still have emergency equity to pull from.  This doesn't seem like a rally environment to me.  Be careful out there.

Still talking your book rather than "acting" smart.  There is a lot of power that comes from "action," and surely there tends to be no need to be correct in any real and specific way, as long as you (we) are tending to be directionally correct.

One of the great powers of bitcoin for so many of "us" is that we have been directionally correct and we continue to be directionally correct in our ongoing reluctance in trying to trade it.

One way to nearly guarantee that you will end up with less bitcoin than what you would have had or could have had, is to fuck around trying to trade it, since even if you should be correct and/or should have had been correct, attempt to play those kinds of hunches about should have, would have and/or could have tends to result in way fewer bitcoin than what you would have had.

Historically, directionally correct action has been a bitcoin superpower, and being directionally correct is likely going to continue to be a bitcoin superpower into the future, whether we are talking about 4-10 years or longer.

Edit:  My AI trading experiment is in full swing.  I'm still writing some rules and ironing out details, but it has so far made 3 trades.  

In an earlier post, you showed enough (likely temporary) insight to admit that trading with bots is likely to end up completely draining whatever value you allocate to it, yet now you want to brag about AI trading as if you were some kind of a innovative genius.  Perhaps you are your own worst enemy.  Perhaps?  Perhaps?  What do I know?

It sold Solana twice for USDC and then purchased some Bitcoin.  

Trading shitcoins to increase bitcoin holdings that seems like a powerful way to "increase your bitcoin" so long as the shitcoins are free and you don't sell your bitcoin, yet "we" know that you have insufficient insight in realizing that selling bitcoin and/or failing/refusing to continue buying bitcoin when you don't have enough bitcoin remains a continued and ongoing mistake of those folks (including uie pooie) who don't seem to be able to differentiate trading/gambling from investing.

I'll give it a little more money to play with in a couple of days and see how it does but so far it seems to be a Bitcoiner.

You would not know "a bitcoiner" if one happened to slap you in the face.  Does your bot have potentially useful built-in slappening capabilities?

To the extent that you are even salvageable (which is a BIG hypothetical), you seem to (severely) need some kind of a slappening**, whether from a bitcoiner, a bot or otherwise... #justsaying

**in the "slap you back to reality" kind of a context - perhaps something like the below famous scene?

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September 27, 2026, 11:41:25 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), jojo69 (1)


**in the "slap you back to reality" kind of a context - perhaps something like the below famous scene?



Let me try, I speak Jive.
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September 27, 2026, 11:46:22 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

"Good morning Mr. Homer!  Here is your morning paper, some coffee you will like and it's a little cool outside in Islamabad today so take your blue, zippered hoodie when you go to visit your parents.  By the way, I have some tips on how to reduce your carbon footprint since you're doing that 6,000km drive to your parent's place almost daily - oh! and here's a link to the Yei Rambler mug - you can use that to keep your parent's coffee hot on your long road trip.  Your youngest needs new socks and your wife's car is due for an oil change this week.  Our recommendation is Euromaster in Berlin; would you like to see some cheap flights from Vancouver to Berlin and maybe look into some container shipping options for your wife's car?  Don't forget to stock up on taro milk for your eldest daughter's best friend's visit later today - it's on sale at 탑마트 대구점 in Daegu, KR; 싸요.  Have a nice day!"

This is literature. It could easily be the opening to a short story. A novella, even.
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September 28, 2026, 12:01:48 AM


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September 28, 2026, 12:07:26 AM

Facts are not feelings.
Don't get angry with cyclists.
Just thank us later!

You and your good ole buddy, OgNasty... Tongue Tongue

hahahahaha
 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

It reminds me of this series:






Or was it this one?



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September 28, 2026, 12:25:50 AM


**in the "slap you back to reality" kind of a context - perhaps something like the below famous scene?



Let me try, I speak Jive.

Yeah but I  have a drinking problem.

Can't open the bottle of Craig yet

Stuck on 80ish proof tequila
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September 28, 2026, 12:27:46 AM

Interesting point about the wall, sometimes the market just stares at it rather than testing it. Guess we'll see if anyone finally takes the bait.
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September 28, 2026, 12:40:33 AM
Last edit: September 28, 2026, 04:20:09 AM by Hueristic
Merited by vapourminer (1)


**in the "slap you back to reality" kind of a context - perhaps something like the below famous scene?



Let me try, I speak Jive.

Yeah but I  have a drinking problem.

Can't open the bottle of Craig yet

Stuck on 80ish proof tequila

There's always sniffing glue!

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September 28, 2026, 02:04:28 AM

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-09-27 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-09-27 09:04 PM CT

Bitcoin is grinding sideways on a thin Sunday, with the Fear & Greed Index holding at 74 despite a 3.5% drop over the past seven days. The market is digesting a critical Core Lightning patch that fixes a channel-close flaw, while price action remains flat relative to the 30-day average.

Outlook: Traders should monitor whether the Core Lightning vulnerability fix triggers any immediate node upgrades or network stability concerns. The BIP138 proposal for multisig wallet backups remains a draft, so watch for community feedback on its privacy tradeoffs before any adoption signals emerge.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $83,758.00, down 0.84% over 24 hours and down 3.5% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads -9 on a -50 to +50 scale. Sellers currently hold the upper hand, as the price sits below the $86,000 resistance while testing the $81,500 support. The Fear & Greed index at 74 suggests retail optimism remains high despite the recent seven-day decline, creating a divergence between sentiment and price action. A break below $81,500 would likely trigger a retest of the $80,000 downside target, signaling that the current support floor has failed. Conversely, a decisive close above $86,000 would invalidate the bearish momentum and open the path toward $87,500. The market is currently trapped in a narrow range, waiting for a catalyst to resolve the tension between greedy sentiment and weak price structure.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $81,500 (44%): triggers: Price remains above $81,500 and fails to close above $86,000 within five trading days. Invalidation: A daily close below $81,500 or above $86,000 within five trading days.
- Breakout Toward $87,500 (15%): triggers: Bitcoin closes above $86,000 within five trading days, confirming a breakout from the current range. Invalidation: Price fails to sustain a close above $86,000 within five trading days.
- Downside Re-test of $80,000 (41%): triggers: A daily close below $81,500 within five trading days, which would likely accelerate selling toward $80,000. Invalidation: Price recovers and closes above $81,500 within five trading days.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Core Lightning Patch: The release of version 26.06.7 addresses a critical channel-close flaw, requiring operators to upgrade to ensure network security and prevent penalty evasion.
- BIP138 Draft: The merged BIP138 proposal introduces encrypted multisig backups, though its privacy tradeoffs regarding xpub exposure may influence future wallet adoption.

TOP STORIES

1. Core Lightning patches flaw allowing penalty evasion
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/core-lightning-revoked-channel-penalty-flaw
Published: 2026-09-27 06:15 PM CT
Summary: Core Lightning released version 26.06.7 to fix a channel-close flaw that allowed peers to broadcast revoked channel states without triggering the standard cheating penalty. The vulnerability relied on a specific setup where a peer could match outputs of a revoked commitment to shutdown scripts, causing the node to treat the transaction as a cooperative close. The fix ensures the software checks locktime and sequence encoding to identify commitment transactions before evaluating outputs for mutual closes. Operators running older builds must upgrade to v26.06.8, which includes additional security fixes, and verify Docker image digests to ensure they are not using compromised images from the August 28 to September 1 period. This issue is specific to Core Lightning's channel handling and does not affect Bitcoin's base-chain rules or consensus.

2. BIP138 Proposal Merged to Rescue Locked Multisig Wallets
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoins-bip138-draft-shows-why-a-seed-may-not-rescue-a-multisig-wallet
Published: 2026-09-27 10:00 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin's BIP138 wallet-backup proposal was merged into the Bitcoin Improvement Proposals repository on Sept. 21, though the specification remains a draft. The proposal addresses a specific failure mode where a seed phrase alone cannot reconstruct a multisig wallet if its descriptor or a cosigner's public key is lost. BIP138 introduces an encrypted file format to store descriptors and wallet policies, requiring the removal of private key material before encryption. A significant privacy tradeoff exists because a third party holding an eligible extended public key (xpub) can decrypt the backup metadata if they obtain the file. This conditional exposure allows a server that already knows an account xpub to learn wallet structure, though it does not grant spending authority.

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[ B-Buddy-Blocker!!! ]

With reference to the preceding five automated entries, the undersigned confirms that prior discretionary tolerance for such serialized volume is now fully exhausted.
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I am waiting for such an opportunity. Cool
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