Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

A gust of volatility. If it's stop hunters, they are looking both down and up.

I'm not taking a side about bitcoin halving cycles, but 12-month seasonality could still be a thing. I think it will remain valid as long as tax deadlines, summer and season holidays, etc., stay where they are.

[AlcoHoDL]

A gust of volatility. If it's stop hunters, they are looking both down and up.

I'm not taking a side about bitcoin halving cycles, but 12-month seasonality could still be a thing. I think it will remain valid as long as tax deadlines, summer and season holidays, etc., stay where they are.

Wow, that's something new.
Concentric cycle theory.
Bitcoin Hypno-Disc!

#replyku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

the girl may be young but she is very wise.

Just sent my tax return in today.

Due a big refund I will be investing it.

Spacx no
Nvidia no
Silver coins no
Gold coins no
Platinum coins no
Doge no
LTC   no
Solana no
Eth fuck Mr V send me back my missing Eth you prick

BTC    yep I will Show the purchase when the check comes.

[xzy887]

We're slipping despite the "good" weekly close - actually, right after it. This says a lot about the accuracy of crypto twatters. Or maybe it's just a quick stop hunt? As usual, she does what she does. We're kept watching and guessing.

It seems as though Bitcoin is looking for a rocket to blast off to the 'moon.'
And that goal is drawing ever closer,
it will take flight very soon.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

We're slipping despite the "good" weekly close - actually, right after it. This says a lot about the accuracy of crypto twatters. Or maybe it's just a quick stop hunt? As usual, she does what she does. We're kept watching and guessing.

I believe this could signal a major shift in the market. It often seems as though the market is poised specifically to trigger the ‘stop-loss’ orders of small investors; the underlying reason is that large investors are constantly trying to force small investors out of the market.

But why do the small investors place longs and shorts instead of buying and hodling?

Degenerates is my best guess.

 Yep.  They can't afford to buy a whole bitcoin but leveraging a whole coin seems like a no-brainer until you actually think about it, mindrust or get rekt - whichever comes first.

[xhomerx10]

 AWww!  You should have used the fairy!

[JayJuanGee]

We're slipping despite the "good" weekly close - actually, right after it. This says a lot about the accuracy of crypto twatters. Or maybe it's just a quick stop hunt? As usual, she does what she does. We're kept watching and guessing.

I believe this could signal a major shift in the market. It often seems as though the market is poised specifically to trigger the ‘stop-loss’ orders of small investors; the underlying reason is that large investors are constantly trying to force small investors out of the market.

But why do the small investors place longs and shorts instead of buying and hodling?

They stay for more profit And big investors exploit their greed. Therefore, I believe it is better for small investors to avoid holding long and short positions.

You seem to be speaking theoretical @CryptoVertex7, since there seem to be a pretty decent number of guys participating in this here thread who play long only.. so yeah, sometimes in the short term, or even a few years into HODLing and accumulating bitcoin, the long positions might seem like they are not doing so great, yet at the same time, historically, the ongoing holding of long positions in bitcoin has been a quite profitable play..

Accordingly, guys who are ongoingly buying bitcoin and not selling any they are long bitcoin and holding their long position and they are not doing shorts.  They may well be erroring on the side of HODLing through the ups and downs of the market when they run out of money and they might not have (or feel that they have) additional money to buy more bitcoin, yet it seems to me that ongoing buying has been even better than HODLing through the bad times.. yet ongoing buying would likely ONLY be motivated for guys who believe that they don't have enough bitcoin.   Guys sometimes will error into thinking that they have enough, so they will purely HODL rather than continuing to buy more bitcoin.

Even though HODLing and believing that we had enough ended up working out for a good number of us, there are likely also a good number of us who have passing thoughts that they might have had stopped accumulating bitcoin too soon.. even though their assessment of having enough bitcoin and/or more than enough bitcoin was largely correct.

So yeah claims that longs and shorts get reckt by the BIG guys seem to not be correct, since if guys had been largely buying, holding and even suffering through the downward manipulation times (in other words they did not get shaken into selling), then how were the ongoing and persistent longs damaged by the manipulators, except merely having to wait longer before it might have had started to begin to make sense to start to sell some of their coins. .under the presumption, again, that they have enough or more than enough bitcoin.

After two months I am back from where I started, but it's amazing because now I am in big profit due to a good increase in the price of Bitcoin.

Lets wait few more weeks because now I am expecting its going to be have six figures if happen its going to be big achievement for my journey into Bitcoin community.

You come off as bound to reck ur lil selfie - especially if you believe that 2 months is any kind of a meaningful timeline to be buying and/or holding bitcoin.

A gust of volatility. If it's stop hunters, they are looking both down and up.

I'm not taking a side about bitcoin halving cycles, but 12-month seasonality could still be a thing. I think it will remain valid as long as tax deadlines, summer and season holidays, etc., stay where they are.

ProTip:

When in doubt,^** play up.   

**Even when not in doubt, too.

We're slipping despite the "good" weekly close - actually, right after it. This says a lot about the accuracy of crypto twatters. Or maybe it's just a quick stop hunt? As usual, she does what she does. We're kept watching and guessing.

It seems as though Bitcoin is looking for a rocket to blast off to the 'moon.'
And that goal is drawing ever closer,
it will take flight very soon.

Bitcoin seeks rocket
Moon blasting goal draws closer
takes flight vvvvvvvveeeeeeeerrrrrrrrryyyyyyyy soon

FTFY

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

ProTip:

When in doubt,^** play up.    

**Even when not in doubt, too.

We're slipping despite the "good" weekly close - actually, right after it. This says a lot about the accuracy of crypto twatters. Or maybe it's just a quick stop hunt? As usual, she does what she does. We're kept watching and guessing.

It seems as though Bitcoin is looking for a rocket to blast off to the 'moon.'
And that goal is drawing ever closer,
it will take flight very soon.

Bitcoin seeks rocket
Moon blasting goal draws closer
takes flight vvvvvvvveeeeeeeerrrrrrrrryyyyyyyy soon

FTFY

I'm not quite sure about the syllable count of vvvvvvvveeeeeeeerrrrrrrrryyyyyyyy. Sounds like 7-8, but for this time only, we'll make do.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Just sent my tax return in today.

Due a big refund I will be investing it.

Spacx no
Nvidia no
Silver coins no
Gold coins no
Platinum coins no
Doge no
LTC   no
Solana no
Eth fuck Mr V send me back my missing Eth you prick

BTC    yep I will Show the purchase when the check comes.

That has to be the craziest timing for sending in a tax return I've ever heard of.  I probably should've looked into delaying mine last year...

I'm still buying as much SpaceX (& Tesla) as I can get my hands on.  Scooping up Bitcoin and Solana as well.  Still selling silver.

Been tweaking my AI trading bot.  That's getting fun.  It amplifies the realization of something I said a long time ago.  I said that altcoins were acting like a hidden inflation on Bitcoin even though Bitcoin had the 21M cap.  Knowing that trading bots are constantly linking trades with Bitcoin to Solana, Ethereum, USD, etc., really does highlight just how interconnected "crypto" is even if we don't want it to be.  Then you look at STRC sucking funds out of Bitcoin for investors and it displays a clear picture of how Bitcoin is the meal and everyone else is looking for lunch.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-09-28 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-09-28 09:04 PM CT

Bitcoin is consolidating near $83,000 on Monday, down 0.83% over the last 24 hours, as the market digests a massive $2.4 billion weekly ETF inflow that flipped year-to-date flows positive. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 73, indicating Greed, which suggests the current dip is viewed as healthy consolidation rather than a trend reversal. Despite the short-term pullback, the asset remains above its 30-day moving average, supported by strong institutional demand.

Outlook: Traders are watching Wednesday's PCE inflation report and Friday's jobs data, which could influence Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and impact risk assets. The market will also monitor whether the recent surge in ETF inflows sustains momentum or if profit-taking from short-term holders accelerates as unrealized gains remain elevated.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $82,997.00, down 0.83% over 24 hours and down 3.7% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads -7 on a -50 to +50 scale. Sellers currently hold the upper hand, as the price struggles to reclaim the $86,000 resistance while drifting toward the $80,000 support. The Fear & Greed index sits at 73, indicating that retail sentiment remains greedy despite the recent seven-day decline. This divergence suggests that market participants are not yet capitulating, but the lack of upward momentum implies a potential pause in buying pressure. A decisive break below $80,000 would likely trigger a retest of the $77,500 downside target, whereas a sustained close above $86,000 could open the path to $88,500.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $80,000 (38%): triggers: The price maintains a daily close above $80,000 through Friday, with the Fear & Greed index remaining above 50. Invalidation: A daily close below $80,000 occurs through Friday.
- Breakout to $88,500 (11%): triggers: Bitcoin reclaims and holds above $86,000 through Friday, accompanied by a Fear & Greed reading that stays above 70. Invalidation: The price fails to close above $86,000 through Friday.
- Downside Re-test of $77,500 (51%): triggers: The price loses the $80,000 support level through Friday, with the Fear & Greed index dropping below 50. Invalidation: The price recovers and closes above $80,000 through Friday.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Macro Policy Risk: The CME FedWatch tool prices a 64% chance of another Fed rate hike in late October, creating a headwind for risk assets that could cap upside momentum.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin ETFs See $2.4 Billion Weekly Inflow, Flipping 2026 Net Flows Positive
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-09-26-bitcoin-etfs-turn-positive-for-2026-with-2-4-billion-weekly-inflow-their-largest-since-october-416944
Published: 2026-09-28
Summary: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.4 billion in net inflows for the week ending September 25, marking their largest weekly gain since October 2025. This surge pushed the funds' year-to-date net flows back into positive territory, reversing a deficit of approximately $5.8 billion that existed in mid-July. BlackRock's IBIT led the sector with $1.2 billion in inflows, while Fidelity's FBTC added $701.7 million. Spot ether ETFs also rebounded, attracting $689.9 million in net inflows after experiencing outflows the previous week. some shitcoin ETFs set a new daily record with $86.7 million in inflows on Friday, contributing to a weekly total of $188.2 million.

2. BTC Market Pulse: Week 40
URL: https://research.glassnode.com/btc-market-pulse-week-40-2026
Published: 2026-09-28
Summary: Bitcoin trades near $84,000, closing the week about 4% higher after a jump from the previous Monday. US Spot ETF netflows surged to $2.7 billion, marking the largest weekly inflow in nearly a year and driving the price gain. Perpetual futures traders sold aggressively, with taker flow swinging to heavy net selling and long-side funding payments dropping by 53.2% to $1.2 million. On-chain data shows new capital entering the market, as the monthly change in realized cap and hot capital share both sit above their high bands. Profitability remains stretched, with 74% of the supply in profit and short-term holder unrealized gains well above historical norms.

3. Bitcoin dips to $83,000 amid geopolitical tensions and Fed rate hike fears
URL: https://decrypt.co/379438/bitcoin-price-falls-trump-iran-oil-yields
Published: 2026-09-28 10:26 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin trades near $83,000, down 1.8% over 24 hours, as geopolitical tensions and inflation data weigh on risk assets. President Trump's rejection of Iran's peace plan pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel, strengthening the dollar and Treasury yields. Technical indicators remain bullish, with a golden cross intact and RSI at 58.7, suggesting the current dip is consolidation rather than reversal. Derivatives markets show heavy long liquidations totaling $386.5 million, while spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net positive inflows. Traders anticipate Wednesday's PCE inflation report and Friday's jobs data, with CME FedWatch pricing a 64% chance of another Fed rate hike in late October.

4. Brazil mandates $10,000 self-custody crypto reporting
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/brazils-252-billion-crypto-market-gets-10000-self-custody-reporting-rule
Published: 2026-09-28 01:30 PM CT
Summary: Brazil will require regulated financial institutions to report crypto transfers of $10,000 or more involving self-custody wallets starting October 1. Under Resolution BCB 588, institutions must notify the Financial Activities Control Council (Coaf) whenever they send or receive virtual assets worth at least $10,000 to or from user-controlled wallets. The rule applies automatically to qualifying transactions, meaning legitimate transfers between exchanges and personal wallets enter the reporting system without requiring suspicion of illicit activity. This measure expands anti-money-laundering visibility across Brazil's $252.5 billion crypto market, which ranks first in Latin America and first globally in adoption according to Chainalysis. A separate regulation, Resolution BCB 584, will introduce precautionary holding procedures for certain outbound transfers beginning January 1, 2027.

5. Trezor Safe 7 Review: FOSS Self-Custody Hardware Wallet
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/trezor-safe-7-review-the-foss-self-custody-hardware-wallet
Published: 2026-09-28 09:32 AM CT
Summary: Trezor released the Safe 7, a hardware wallet featuring a metal exterior, wide touchscreen, and tactile feedback designed to mimic premium consumer electronics. The device supports both multi-coin and Bitcoin-only firmware stacks, with the latter offering reduced update frequency and lower bug risk. Trezor utilizes a 20-word SLIP-39 backup standard instead of the common 12 or 24-word BIP-39 seeds, enabling Shamir Secret Sharing for redundant, shard-based recovery without on-chain transactions. The Safe 7 introduces Bluetooth connectivity and a Qi2 wireless charging battery, marking a departure from previous air-gapped Trezor models. Security features include a 'Wipe PIN' for duress scenarios, though the implementation lacks the decoy wallet functionality found in some competitors.

6. UK Chancellor Healey Criticizes Farage's Bitcoin Stance
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/uk-finance-ministe-nigel-farage-bitcoin
Published: 2026-09-28 03:43 PM CT
Summary: UK Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey criticized Reform Party leader Nigel Farage, calling him "Liz Truss with a Bitcoin account" during a Monday speech. Healey argued that Farage's economic policies resemble the debt-fueled mini budget of former Prime Minister Liz Truss, despite Farage's pro-crypto stance. The Bitcoin community on X mocked the phrase, questioning the definition of a "Bitcoin account" and criticizing the finance minister's understanding of the asset. Farage has long advocated for Bitcoin as a tool for personal freedom and has proposed slashing crypto capital gains taxes and establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. Reform UK is currently under police investigation regarding millions of dollars in crypto donations from entrepreneurs Christopher Harborne and Ben Delo, which the party denies breaking rules.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | qwen3.8-flash-next

[philipma1957]

Just sent my tax return in today.

Due a big refund I will be investing it.

Spacx no
Nvidia no
Silver coins no
Gold coins no
Platinum coins no
Doge no
LTC   no
Solana no
Eth fuck Mr V send me back my missing Eth you prick

BTC    yep I will Show the purchase when the check comes.

That has to be the craziest timing for sending in a tax return I've ever heard of.  I probably should've looked into delaying mine last year...

I'm still buying as much SpaceX (& Tesla) as I can get my hands on.  Scooping up Bitcoin and Solana as well.  Still selling silver.

Been tweaking my AI trading bot.  That's getting fun.  It amplifies the realization of something I said a long time ago.  I said that altcoins were acting like a hidden inflation on Bitcoin even though Bitcoin had the 21M cap.  Knowing that trading bots are constantly linking trades with Bitcoin to Solana, Ethereum, USD, etc., really does highlight just how interconnected "crypto" is even if we don't want it to be.  Then you look at STRC sucking funds out of Bitcoin for investors and it displays a clear picture of how Bitcoin is the meal and everyone else is looking for lunch.

. they pay interest on the refund higher than 4 percent.

i had a lot of involvement with others due to my LLC partnership. but it is ended and my return will be easier next year.

I have been buying spacex 98 shares I will get 2 more soon

giives me

100 spacex
 50 solana staked
 20 Ltc
22,000 doge

 some nvidia
 some gold
some platinum
some silver

some cash

and mostly btc