Aw JJG. They're all away at school, too busy studying (or what have you) and have no time for me - not even for free ice cream. You're making me cry.
I thought about renting a soft-serve truck and driving around the neighborhood offering free ice cream but no doubt many would take it the wrong way. We'll all be together next weekend for thanksgiving so the turkey's on me. (not literally because again...)
If there is no free icecream, then I will cancel my planned trip, and yeah, freebies to others would not be the only way to convert your hard asset (namely bitcoin) into either depreciating assets and/or consumption goods, and I won't even judge you regarding the HLB angle - since there could be some guys who actually literally go down the HLB route, and other guys who might just have their own "private" HLB variation.
I had imagined some implied agreements anyhow in terms of the extent to which any of us might be consuming with our coins, and surely down the road, there could be some guys who regret selling too many coins too soon ..and we been there done that, right?
I remember guys getting overly excited spending coins, and surely some of them don't seem to have regrets, and some of them are just private about their regrets... maybe spending at $700 in late 2016? maybe spending at $15k in late 2020? maybe spending at $50k in late 2024? .. and it can take a while before the regret starts to sink in.. since we don't seem to be getting as many doublings and quadruplings in recent times, event though maybe the route from $15.5k to $126k might qualify for three doublings, which is really a doubling, then a quadrupling then an 8x.. .. but then it is hard to get too preoccupied in considering if our current place is still within the correction zone.
So yeah, like what Lucius mentioned, it may not really matter so much if you are spending 65x, 75x, 85x or 95x in profits, even though maybe tangentially, when we (meaning you) are in 500x profits and above, then maybe you will end up second-guessing your earlier selling impulsivities.
Meanwhile, we're back over 86k. Is she waking up?
I can't look now or the magic wears off. Let me know when you're all twice as wealthy in your local fiat currency equivalents.
Twice as wealthy. Let us pray...
and yeah, let's go with $85k as the base.. that would be $170k.
I am not sure about that Homer. It might take a wee bit of time to reach something like that...
meaning..
I might end up shocked if such BTC prices of $170k-ish were to happen prior to the end of the 1st quarter 2027
(or maybe just pleasantly shocked?) since I don't really have any major changes in any of my bitcoin management plans based on such an occurrence, if it were to take place
(but maybe I should?), even though my current price-based bitcoin sale increments have about $3k separation between them, so then those increments would progress up to $5k and then up to $7.5k by the time we are in the mid $100ks (if we were to get there).. and yeah, maybe I would be getting bored with whatever action is already in the cards, then perhaps it could be that I would have to throw in a few extra sales of dee cornz for shits and giggles.. .
Based on context and also cAPSLOCK's earlier "holding the ball under water" characterization of the situation, I would suggest that cAPSLOCK was considering our current price dynamics poster from early 2017 rather than from after the top already being reached (as you are thinking about the top being October 2025), yet of course, after reading cAPSLOCK's most recent post, I am not going to proclaim that for sure he had been referring to us being in an early 2017 kind of a situation rather than in a post-2017 situation.. even though we never really had any great UPpity explosions after 2017.. so the most logical reference seems to be that cAPSLOCK has been suggesting that we may well be in early 2017 rather than after 2017.
Yes, my reference was to consider the bull run of 2017. Not the bubble pop, which if I remember correctly happened around Christmas.
Let me just take a really big hit off of my Hopium pipe real quick and then I'll finish this post.
Ok.
I think there's a decent chance that if things line up the right way, we might get to see something that feels more like the 2017 bull run than anything that we've experienced since. Perhaps even more.
I hate to get all mathy on you, but I cannot help my lil selfie.
If we think about 2017 from its 2015 base of $250, which was the approximate price for a large portion of 2015 (it might have even been the yearly average if we were to measure it? Edit: I just found a way to measure the 2015 average and it was $264 - hahahahaha)), then we have a 78x price appreciation, which is also quite a bit smaller than the 2013 run up, which was nearly 100x for the year of 2013 if we start it from its $13 base on January 1, 2013, yet supra 200x if we start it from a January 1, 2012 base of $5.
Now going back to 2017, what might we use as the base? Maybe $1k is fair, since it is easy to calculate and it was the approximate BTC price at the beginning of the year. If we established the 2017 base as $1k and we have $19,666 for the high, then we have about a 19.67x price appreciation.
Fair enough, so far?
The question then becomes what we use as our current base? The current average for the past year is nearly $77k per coin and the current average if we go from the beginning of the year is $72k.. How about we use $75k as our base? 19.67x would be $1.475 million... so that seems a bit much, but it does not seem impossible to reach whether within a year or within the next couple of years. We might sound a bit looney in regular circles to be talking about those kinds of numbers for our current price run, even though I had those kinds of numbers as something like 0.5% to 1% odds in my 2021 seemingly bad predictions.
Meanwhile, we're back over 86k. Is she waking up?
We may see price at $90k by weekend! Perhaps price is teaching us how to be patient while holding without counting the eggs in the basket.
I feel good seeing a positive market on the first day of the week! Boommmmm!
Seems reasonable.
Even seems reasonable sleepwalking....
up before down?
down before up?
up before further up?
up before sideways?
[edited out]
Very well..not disagreeing at all, but then what?
Will I sell at, say, 400-500K, which is "just" 5X when in 2017 we had about 10X from somewhere in the summer to the peak?
If it happens in 2-3 mo, lol, i might sell something like 1-2%, but if it happens in 2-3 years, probably not even that much.
On the other hand, if Dems would resoundingly win in November, we would probably drop 20-30% (based on their opposition to Clarity, etc and nothing else, really), IF we would be at a highly elevated level (>150K) by then.
Imho, not much would happen if we are still at the mid-80ies.
Perhaps, the scenario above would be a "natural" break until after the halving in mid April 2028.
EDIT: it is possible that WS is "running" bitcoin until early Nov/elections and then they would sell btc to invest in AI (sorry, SI) IPOs.
Your edit is a bit much.
You really think that WS can control bitcoin as much as you are making it out to be?
And, yeah, you are disagreeing with cAPSLOCK's ball being held under water theory.
Poll
