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They might be able to control it during a small time stretch, not over the the longer time duration...and by control I simply meant that it might take a few dozen hedge funds each selling 10% of the position to reverse the flows for a month or two and, yes, cause a significant dip. No biggie.
re 'ball under water'..if anything, it was our 58-64K situation and not the current state of affairs.
To conclude:
My prediction is that
if we double (or more) in the next mo or so, and then dems win the election, btc would correct 20-30%, imho.
If we would be much "flatter", then maybe just 10% drop.I am not sure why they put themselves as an opposition to basically all tech progress, but here we are.
We have had those kinds of situations previously. Bitcoin prices go shooting up, and then HODLers are whining about the severity of the correction, and of course the BTC price rise that followed the March 2020 price correction was quite stupendous, and yeah in recent times (kinda looking at you cAPSLOCK). Think about the correction down to $4k-ish, and then by March 2021, we were at $64k-ish, which is 16x.
Yeah of course, we had quite a bit of correction after that including the summer 2021 that took us down to about $28k before we went to $69k in late 2021 - and then of course, the BIGGER 2022 crash down to $15,479, yet still did not bring us back to pre-2021 prices, even though there was some frustration in 2022 since we spent quite a bit of time below our 2017 high prices (of $19,666)... but yeah, in the end, longer term HODLers have done quite well through all of these periods if they had been ONLY holding, and even if they had been HOLDing and accumulating more (so long as they weren't selling and/or trying to trade).
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Yes, what I have written is like much of what I write, think, and say, very feel-based and not particularly math-y.
I have thought a little bit about if we could see a run-up that would resemble the 20x of 2017. If we're talking multiples or percentages, then indeed that would be a dramatic move. On the other hand, if we're just talking about amounts, then Bitcoin just needs to go up $20,000.
I can accept some modified price rise that would be lower than 78x, in the ballpark of 20x or maybe even 8x to 19x and then claiming that the price rise was like 2017; however, I consider that claiming that going up $20k to be equivalent (or like the 2017 price run) would be nearly retarded. Even claiming anything less than 16x to be like 2017, might not be a very fair comparison since our most recent rise from $15.5k to $126k could arguably be characterized as an 8x, and our March 2020 rise from $4k to $64k in March 2021 could be characterized as a 16x price rise.
I hate to be nit-picky, even though I do sometimes feel like nit-picking might help iron to sharpen iron, and for sure, when we are batting around some of these numbers, we might come to realize that there are better ways to frame matters or that our own framing is less than accurate.
So, I am inclined (by feel again) to assume that the number would be somewhere in the middle. Instead of matching the 20x of the 2017 bull run, (just rounding up what you had already mathed up.). I am thinking more of the surprise that was felt by many when Bitcoin actually crested $20,000. It had, during those days, exceeded everyone's immediate expectations, and it did it very quickly. Just over a few months.
Whoaza. I understand that going up $20k from our $126k (such as up to $146k), that could be all that ends up happening in the next year or so, yet at the same time, I doubt that we get anything that could be characterized as a 2017 style run without at least an 8x from the $57,735 bottom (which would be $462k).
I might have to rethink my numbers, yet tentatively speaking, I am not going to accept anyone proclaiming a 2017 style run up with anything less than an 8x from the $57,735 bottom. From my point of view (tentatively speaking) anything less than that does not qualify as a "2017-like" price run.
Sure, call it whatever you like and even you end up having your face melted off, but if we don't get at least $462k in the next 1-2 years, from my perspective, the price run up would not count as a "2017-like" price run. I could give less than 2 shits about the substantive numbers and guys making exaggerated BIG deals because the price is up $300k blah blah blah. Who cares? That is not a "2017-like" run up if it does not otherwise meet the at least 8x minimum requirements.
Even though the substantive number give each of us long term HODLers compounding effects that blow the socks off of the beginners, historically, bitcoin has reset itself several times (perhaps every 4 years), and we measure our percentages from the various jumping off points, and the substantive numbers hardly matter any more. Yeah, sure, of course, the level of the returns have tended to be diminishing, so yeah, we can look at each 4 year cycle and measure that the price rises have not gone up as much whether we are measuring from bottom to top, top to top, bottom to bottom, or using various averages - even though if we look at the 200 WMA, it has ongoingly been plodding upwardly, yet
we can even look at the rises in the 200-WMA, every 6 months and see periods in which the 200WMA had only gone up 18.3% annualized, yet those were the lowest rates for any year or 6 month period that we had come accross in bitcoin's history.
That is another point that I should also cause to be more fuzzy. 🤪. I'm not saying that between now and December 23rd, we're going to see a single fast-paced move. It may take a little longer. It may happen a little later.
And unfortunately, there are multiple buckets full of ice water that could get poured on the coin in the same time frame. Biodom brought up one in the potential changing of the political guard.
We are also coming overdue for some sort of dramatic October surprise type event, something big happens. Suddenly, everybody's using the same language to describe what we should do next. I'm afraid that too is coming, and that could have a negative impact on Bitcoin.
I feel like the amount of Bitcoin that can be readily sold to all of the hands that are interested in holding it currently is shrinking at a clip faster than most of us are in tune with.
Anyway, all of my blathering is probably nonsense. But I will point out one thing. I have certainly been wrong in short frames of time. But on the longer frame, my thesis holds. We're going up.
I will not say the one word.
I will say that you are more bearish in this description than you were previously, and sure it does not really matter very much, since of course, whenever we are trying to predict the future with specifics, then the outcome can be quite wrong with our particulars, even though directionally, many of us may well end up being correct.. even though sometimes it may well take several years for the noisy periods to work themselves out and for UPpity to be clearly seen, and yeah these days, guys who are calling for sub $40k are seeming to be nutjobs, even though some of them have conceded, and yeah, not all of the bears have conceded that the bottom is likely already in...so there are some bear hold outs, and yeah, they can have fun with their wishes of more downity that may or may not end up happening.
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