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I'd like to see a retest of the lows before marching above $100K to feel good about the market, but with each passing day that becomes less likely and more dependent upon a black swan event.
What you would like and what ends up happening are likely to be two separate things, and that is part of the rationale that many of us, including yours truly, do not tend to structure our bitcoin in accordance with "what we would like."
At least, for the moment, you seem to acknowledge that you seem to be structuring your bitcoin hopes around a black swan event, which seems another problematic way to structure our bitcoin management, which for many of us has been building and holding a stack, and once we get to a decently large stash, then we become free to either price base sell some of it or time-base sell some of it (or some people seem to just sell some of it whenever they want since they have enough or more than enough).
For sure, one of the problems of employing selling techniques for guys who still consider themselves to be in the process of accumulating bitcoin remains that selling during that part of the process causes the accumulation process to be a gamble rather than a suredly ongoing building situation.
But hey.. you do you, and hope that you don't get too recked in the process of your doing ur lil selfie, since part any process of selling and trying to act smart would be to buy back in and hopefully not put yourself in a worse situation based on both how many coins you were able to get back but also how many coins you got back in light of the risk you took and also how many coins you would have had if you had not fucked around with selling in the first place.
Jesus so torn.
Og or jjg?
I am trying to straddle the two positions.
How is that going?
Remember from my perspective, it is better to accumulate BTC by buying only and then get to a point that you have enough or more than enough bitcoin, and then at that point, you have more flexibility in terms of how to incorporate selling into either bitcoin portfolio management or liquidation (or sustainable withdrawal) if you so choose.
I cannot see how selling during the accumulation process would help to achieve the goal of accumulating more bitcoin since it incorporates uncertainty in regards to both whether your BTC stash is still growing and even the extent of the ongoing growth of your stash.
I cannot see a way to do both unless maybe you divide up your cashflow and portfolio management, so that you would have some percentage allocated to each of the strategies, and then keeping them separate.. but that does not really fit my own interpretation of the meaning of "straddle" if that is what you would be really doing?
The 4 years cycle is just a model and not a law, anything can happen in the market and the upper walk on price of Bitcoin maybe a smoky ascending order before a clear signal.
I think that there are quite a few of us who have bought into the idea of cycles ever since we have been in bitcoin (including but not limited to yours truly), yet at the same time, some of the ideas of cycles have evolved over the years too.
The 4 cycles may be seen as a model that illustrate how the price of Bitcoin moves from year to year which I think it's cool but I will not conclude that the price of Bitcoin will consistently follow the same model forever.
Things can change based on societal input and government regulations on crypto. This is not to conclude that the government has full control over crypto but with the laws that are being set aside, it can influence the mindset of some investors to buy or wait for big news that will trigger the price of Bitcoin. I still have the dogma that change is constant and investors need to be ready to embrace it at anytime.
You don't really seem to be saying much of anything, even though perhaps from your last line I might be able to charitably interpret that you might consider persistency in ongoingly accumulating bitcoin may well be a good approach to bitcoin, including someone who, like you, seems to still be pretty fucking new to bitcoin, which going by your forum registration is barely around 15 months.
Perhaps a tension that might exist relates to how we treat our bitcoin investment in light of whether cycles exist or not, and even if we might recognize the existence of bitcoin cycles it has been quite difficult to try to trade on them, and many times an overwhelming majority of bitcoiners have tended to be way better off if they had errored on the side of ongoing accumulation and HODL, at least until they get to a point of having had accumulating enough or more than enough bitcoin, and so it seems problematic to try to trade the cycle, especially for guys who are trying to trade the cycle in order to accumulate more bitcoin, when they have not yet gotten to a point of having enough or more than enough bitcoin.
Trying to invest based on the 4 years cycle can be confusing or misleading when price choose to go the other way round. The price of Bitcoin has gone up while the 4 years cycle investors can likewise think that it's not yet to invest since they believe that this is a bear season.
I am not sure if you are referring to actual investing or something else, like trading or waiting to enter, which is also problematic for anyone who might be a low coiner or a no coiner.
How are you going to get exposure to the possibility of the BTC price going up if you have absolutely no fucking bitcoin (because you are waiting for a dip that might not happen) or you are whimpy in your buying of bitcoin because you are contemplating dips that might not happen? Your framing hardly makes any sense to me.
Personally, I consider investing into bitcoin to be a 4-10 year or longer time horizon, so if you are fucking around thinking about less than 4 year timelines, you are likely trading or gambling or you have a trading/gambling rather than an investor mindset. So from my perspective you may well be a bit incoherent if you are considering trading to be anything less than 4 years, and even most normies more likely need to have a 10 year or longer timeline for bitcoin unless they have age/health reasons why they are not able to commit to 10 years or more.
On the other hands, there are some folks who are able to front load their investment in such ways that they are not as much dependent on a minimum of a 10 year timeline, and surely also some of the older bitcoiners may also had gotten advantages from largely establishing their bitcoin positions prior to 2017 or prior to 2021, and sure of course, in bitcoin, the earlier the better, even though some early guys still ended up fucking up an otherwise good thing.
I am open to learning if I am wrong because I know that people like you have been into Bitcoin for years before me and you have couples of experience on different cycles and must have accumulate enough Bitcoin through all these years.
It seems problematic to presume the quantity of the bitcoin holdings of other members, even based on the timeline that they seemed to have had gotten into bitcoin.
Another thing is that we cannot turn back the clock, so each person, whether newbie or otherwise has to consider his own
individual particulars, and sure the longer a guy had been accumulating bitcoin, then the amount of bitcoin that he had been able to accumulate would (or at least should) end up affecting his options and how he thinks about his options.
Sure, you can learn about bitcoin accumulation and cashflow management by participating in this forum, yet you likely also need to figure out ways to put ideas into practice in terms of your own bitcoin accumulation and your own cashflow management strengthening, to the extent that your cashflow management needs strengthening.
Even in your case @Mummy OS, you have ONLY been registered here for less than 1.5 years, so I have a hard time imagining any ability to really meaningfully stack bitcoin during that time, and for sure, as I already suggested, I continue to not be a fan of trying to trade bitcoin in order to attempt to expedite the accumulation of bitcoin.
So, hopefully for your own good, you are not going to get sucked into the lure of the 4 year cycle in terms of trying to trade upon it rather than ongoingly, persistently, consistently, regularly and perhaps even aggressively accumulating bitcoin through buying (or earning) only methods.
I have seen people trade Bitcoin but they often have this problem of giving back their profits to the market.
Someone can make a thousand dollar today and lose the entire money by next weekend. Trading is not often rosy like what we are seeing on social media and what individual traders are posing so to attract newbies they are going to fine to buy their signals or their courses.
Personally, I believe that it is not a good idea to try to trade bitcoin or even to get involved in shitcoins for the purpose of trying to get more bitcoin.
It tends to take a long time to build wealth, and it likely is going to take even longer if guys are fucking around trying to trade bitcoin rather than ongoingly buying bitcoin in persistent, regular, continuous and perhaps even aggressive ways.
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