Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

.....if anyone blame that I use AI so every time I reject it because I dont use it [in bed].

That's what she said.

LOL
Did i already say that i'm mostly hanging around here because of the high entertainment factor?  

EDIT: My replacement CK12 has arrived. Gonna fix a broken condenser microphone and test it.
I inherited from an old friend ...totally by surprise. ...or better: by accident.
He borrowed it to me, telling me that it "should work", when he came for a surprise visit (i fucking hate those, btw) in the middle of one of his manic episodes.
He didn't manage to pick it up again, until the day he chose to finally take an exit from his bipolar life.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Danish Ali]

.....if anyone blame that I use AI so every time I reject it because I dont use it [in bed].

That's what she said.

LOL
Did i already say that i'm mostly hanging around here because of the high entertainment factor? 

Grab some popcorn too but I am way ahead of you. The front row seat is already booked.

[xhomerx10]

I believe this is about diplomacy rather than political theater.  You don't wish Putin a "Happy Birthday" and expect to gain popularity for the upcoming US elections.  Trump has already forcefully asked Zelensky to stop destroying oil refining capacity in Russia because it has seriously affected the price of diesel world-wide.  Zelensky and the media can easily point and say, "Look it's the Iran conflict!" which purposely ignores a couple of realities; the Nord Stream disaster which has caused untold financial damage to Ukraine's European allies, the very countries Ukraine relies on for financial and military assistance, and forced them to seek other, more expensive supplies of energy.  Secondly,  the destruction of Russian refineries is responsible for a diesel prices increased of 60-65% - because Russia was supplying Turkey, Brazil and North Africa with refined diesel and now those countries are forced to find alternative sources.  The loss of ~50% of Russian refining capacity has had a greater effect on diesel prices than a lack of crude oil shipments through Hormuz.  Crude oil is easy, refined product is difficult.  So, while it may seem like a drop in the bucket in absolute math, it is a bargaining tool that shows someone in a position of immense power is willing to trade some sanctions relief for a much-needed ceasefire... and a little bit of leverage can get you the rest of the bucket.  The USA doesn't even need to import diesel as they refine more than enough at home but since its price is driven by a global market, domestic producers can demand global prices at home.  If you also consider that 15-20% of the current diesel price is speculative, this gesture might be enough to give some needed relief to Americans.

Sorry, this doesn't stand against some fact checking.
The most recent significant Diesel price surge happend within two weeks after the start of the Iran war, which was on the 28th of Feb, while Ukraine significantly intensified their attacks against refineries around the mid of June. Mid July the Houthis chimed in to attack Saudi tankers. This is the timeframe when Diesel price was on the rise again, after decreasing slowly in May, while Ukraine broadly intensified their attacks against refineries in June, with the most devastating hits in August and September.
The price was rising around 2x-3x more at times of Iran-related war events compared to Russia war events in the "refinery department".

How do you explain that?
I see much stronger correlations regarding events of the useless war against Iran, while Trump promised to not get into another useless war.
The US needs some more torches and pitchforks, and the Ukraine needs more support!

OT:
After UAF took out major datacenters in Russia, on many forums and social media platforms the posting of content against UA, or supporting AfD, FPOE and other european right-wing parties effectively vanished (or suddenly started to post texts in russian letters). Better statistics need more time and data, but it seems the global russian troll army wasn't a myth at all. They effectively also helped with the win of Trump in the elections, despite this has already been highlighted in various studies.
The american voter became a sock puppet of Putin, and he is starting to grasp this. Note that i didn't accuse Trump of corruption and lying to the people. Because i don't need to. People are not as dumb as Donald ans his frens believe.

 Well, I believe you're tracking short-term timeline spikes from crude oil panic, but like I said before: crude oil is easy, refined product is difficult.  My point was entirely about the permanent, structural deficit in global refined diesel capacity after the Russian refinery destruction and the countries who now have to chase after new sources for diesel.  While related in theory, they are two completely different economic mechanisms.  You can pump and ship all the crude oil you want but if you can't refine it, you haven't imcreased the supply of the required products.

[philipma1957]

I believe this is about diplomacy rather than political theater.  You don't wish Putin a "Happy Birthday" and expect to gain popularity for the upcoming US elections.  Trump has already forcefully asked Zelensky to stop destroying oil refining capacity in Russia because it has seriously affected the price of diesel world-wide.  Zelensky and the media can easily point and say, "Look it's the Iran conflict!" which purposely ignores a couple of realities; the Nord Stream disaster which has caused untold financial damage to Ukraine's European allies, the very countries Ukraine relies on for financial and military assistance, and forced them to seek other, more expensive supplies of energy.  Secondly,  the destruction of Russian refineries is responsible for a diesel prices increased of 60-65% - because Russia was supplying Turkey, Brazil and North Africa with refined diesel and now those countries are forced to find alternative sources.  The loss of ~50% of Russian refining capacity has had a greater effect on diesel prices than a lack of crude oil shipments through Hormuz.  Crude oil is easy, refined product is difficult.  So, while it may seem like a drop in the bucket in absolute math, it is a bargaining tool that shows someone in a position of immense power is willing to trade some sanctions relief for a much-needed ceasefire... and a little bit of leverage can get you the rest of the bucket.  The USA doesn't even need to import diesel as they refine more than enough at home but since its price is driven by a global market, domestic producers can demand global prices at home.  If you also consider that 15-20% of the current diesel price is speculative, this gesture might be enough to give some needed relief to Americans.

Sorry, this doesn't stand against some fact checking.
The most recent significant Diesel price surge happend within two weeks after the start of the Iran war, which was on the 28th of Feb, while Ukraine significantly intensified their attacks against refineries around the mid of June. Mid July the Houthis chimed in to attack Saudi tankers. This is the timeframe when Diesel price was on the rise again, after decreasing slowly in May, while Ukraine broadly intensified their attacks against refineries in June, with the most devastating hits in August and September.
The price was rising around 2x-3x more at times of Iran-related war events compared to Russia war events in the "refinery department".

How do you explain that?
I see much stronger correlations regarding events of the useless war against Iran, while Trump promised to not get into another useless war.
The US needs some more torches and pitchforks, and the Ukraine needs more support!

OT:
After UAF took out major datacenters in Russia, on many forums and social media platforms the posting of content against UA, or supporting AfD, FPOE and other european right-wing parties effectively vanished (or suddenly started to post texts in russian letters). Better statistics need more time and data, but it seems the global russian troll army wasn't a myth at all. They effectively also helped with the win of Trump in the elections, despite this has already been highlighted in various studies.
The american voter became a sock puppet of Putin, and he is starting to grasp this. Note that i didn't accuse Trump of corruption and lying to the people. Because i don't need to. People are not as dumb as Donald ans his frens believe.

 Well, I believe you're tracking short-term timeline spikes from crude oil panic, but like I said before: crude oil is easy, refined product is difficult.  My point was entirely about the permanent, structural deficit in global refined diesel capacity after the Russian refinery destruction and the countries who now have to chase after new sources for diesel.  While related in theory, they are two completely different economic mechanisms.  You can pump and ship all the crude oil you want but if you can't refine it, you haven't imcreased the supply of the required products.

lets face it the 30’s will be far worse than any decade most of the world has lived in.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

lets face it the 30’s will be far worse than any decade most of the world has lived in.

Maybe for some. I also think it will be an extremely easy time to get rich if you put in the effort. All the opportunities are there, but robotics will also enable people to be very lazy. You can either sit around doing nothing but collecting a check and getting fat, or you can invest, budget, not get caught up in the next shiny thing while getting extremely wealthy.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

lets face it the 30’s will be far worse than any decade most of the world has lived in.

i can see youre the life of the party

[vapourminer]

lets face it the 30’s will be far worse than any decade most of the world has lived in.

[...]  but robotics will also enable people to be very lazy. You can either sit around doing nothing [...]

ok taken a bit out of context but you make lazy sound like a bad thing...

sounds like HODL to me

[OgNasty]

Man… The son from Breaking Bad committed suicide… RIP. Hard to believe someone with an iconic role and money from royalties pouring in would choose to just end it, but it goes to show that money is nice, but it isn’t everything. Sad story that is still developing. Stacking Bitcoin is awesome, but don’t forget to have some fun in your life too!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

Ouch.

[vapourminer]

Ouch.

are we going into sucks territory again?

[Biodom]

lets face it the 30’s will be far worse than any decade most of the world has lived in.

Maybe for some. I also think it will be an extremely easy time to get rich if you put in the effort. All the opportunities are there, but robotics will also enable people to be very lazy. You can either sit around doing nothing but collecting a check and getting fat, or you can invest, budget, not get caught up in the next shiny thing while getting extremely wealthy.

I have something re both the point and the counterpoint.

Point: I was promised mass starvation by the early 21st century in a 1978 lecture with a suggestion to grow and eat worms as a solution (Club of Rome and "Limits to Growth", etc, etc).
So far-it just didn't happen, no promise for the future.

Counterpoint: why do you think that individual's meager agents would be effective against mega-agents deployed by some corps?
What do you think would be easier: for a poor slob to learn all of the upcoming tech OR for an already rich just to pay up for a couple of thou "superior agents" from Anthropic or OpenAI.
I don't think that doing nothing and collecting a check is a realistic scenario, all claims from Elon notwithstanding.

[d_eddie]

Ouch.

are we going into sucks territory again?

It sucks, but we are.

I will spare you two more lines, so there's no #haiku.

[Danish Ali]

lets face it the 30’s will be far worse than any decade most of the world has lived in.

Maybe for some. I also think it will be an extremely easy time to get rich if you put in the effort. All the opportunities are there, but robotics will also enable people to be very lazy. You can either sit around doing nothing but collecting a check and getting fat, or you can invest, budget, not get caught up in the next shiny thing while getting extremely wealthy.

IMO whole robotics and automation wave is going to divide people into two camps. Those who actually leverage the tech to scale up, and those who spend all their time in that debate whether it will even work while world moves on without them.

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-12 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-10-12 09:04 PM CT

Bitcoin is grinding through a quiet Monday as traders brace for Friday's $1.29 billion options expiry, with 9,128 BTC in puts clustering at $76,000 to $80,000. The 24-hour move is a modest -1.43%, but the 7-day trend sits at -3.7% while price holds below the 30-day average of $82,638. Fear & Greed slipped 14 points over the past week to 57, still in Greed but losing its footing as the market waits for CPI.

Outlook: Wednesday's CPI report arrives at 8:30 a.m. Eastern with September inflation expected to accelerate to 3.7%, though seven-day implied volatility fell to 32.01% from 34.5% as traders price it as a non-event. Watch whether the put wall at $76,000 to $80,000 holds through Friday's expiry, or if max pain near $83,000 pulls price higher into the print.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $82,365.00, down 1.43% over 24 hours and down 3.7% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads -8 on a -50 to +50 scale. Sellers still hold the tape, but their grip loosens below $82,000. Price sits between support $80,000 and resistance $84,500, and the Fear & Greed reading at 57 keeps greed alive while buyers fail to press. A close above $84,500 would hand control to bulls, while losing $80,000 would open the door to $78,500. The 30-day gain of 7.3% suggests the larger uptrend absorbs this pullback for now. Watch whether daily closes hold above $80,000 through the week.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $80,000 (43%): If daily closes keep holding above $80,000 through Friday while the Fear & Greed index stays near 57, price chops between $80,000 and $84,500. Invalidation: a daily close below $80,000 within five trading days.
- Reclaim of $84,500 Toward $86,500 (20%): Bulls need a daily close above $84,500 within five trading days, then buyers can target $86,500. Greed at 57 supports this push only if spot buyers defend dips. Invalidation: failure to close above $84,500 within five trading days.
- Downside Break of $80,000 Toward $78,500 (37%): Sellers force a daily close below $80,000 within five trading days, and the 7-day slide of 3.7% extends toward $78,500. Invalidation: bulls reclaim $80,000 with a daily close above it within five trading days.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- CPI catalyst: Wednesday's inflation print, expected to accelerate to 3.7%, looms over a market where traders have cut odds of a Fed hike to 19.4% from 42.5% a month ago.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin options price a quiet CPI week while shorts cluster at $76,000-$80,000
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-traders-brace-for-cpi-shock-with-451-million-in-downside-options-bets
Published: 2026-10-12 01:20 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin options expiring Friday carry 15,502 BTC in outstanding contracts, with 9,128 BTC in puts against 6,373 BTC in calls, according to an Oct. 12 Deribit snapshot. Puts cluster at the $76,000, $78,000 and $80,000 strikes, holding about $451 million in notional exposure, while the largest call position sits at $90,000 with $94 million. Bitcoin traded near $83,450 after last week's selloff, and the $1.29 billion expiry has a maximum pain level of $83,000. Seven-day implied volatility fell to 32.01% from 34.5%, pricing Wednesday's CPI report as a non-event, per Laevitas. The CPI report arrives Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, with September headline inflation expected to accelerate to 3.7% from 3.4% in August.

2. Bitcoin ends week 3% lower as perpetual traders and ETF holders lead selling
URL: https://research.glassnode.com/btc-market-pulse-week-42-2026
Published: 2026-10-12 11:26 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin trades just below $83k after a week that briefly undid the breakout from three weeks ago. Price slid below $81k on Thursday before a weekend rebound, closing about 3% lower. Perpetual takers turned heavy net sellers with funding paid by longs falling below its low band, while futures open interest held near the top of its range at $36.7B. Weekly ETF netflow swung from inflows to outflows of about $700M, below its low band. New capital kept arriving on-chain as realized cap change and hot capital share stayed above their high bands, with just over 70% of supply in profit.

3. Moscow Exchange to Launch Bitcoin Trading, Testing Underway
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/moscow-exchange-to-debut-bitcoin-trading
Published: 2026-10-12 05:10 PM CT
Summary: Moscow Exchange plans to let clients trade cryptocurrencies starting in December and has begun testing operations with professional market participants. Boris Blokhin, the exchange's senior managing director for sales and business development, said testing started a week ago. Russia's biggest exchange will work with a partner settlement digital depository, where market participants will open accounts, and it won't need additional permits or licenses to launch trading. The plan follows Russia's law on digital currencies and digital rights, which took effect in September and sets comprehensive rules for crypto in the country. Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, last month became the first in the country approved to custody bitcoin, with qualified investors able to buy any cryptocurrency traded on exchange and over-the-counter markets, while unqualified investors are capped at 300,000 rubles ($3,556) a year.

4. Bitcoin inches higher as rising Treasury yields and stronger dollar weigh
URL: https://decrypt.co/380669/bitcoin-ranges-near-83k-as-traders-look-to-us-inflation-data
Published: 2026-10-12 06:41 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin traded at $83,327, up 0.6% over the past 24 hours but down 2.9% on the week. Rising energy prices pushed US Treasury yields higher and strengthened the dollar, leading investors to reassess the Fed's rate path, according to Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn. Traders now see a 19.4% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed's October 28 meeting, down from 42.5% a month ago. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $21.13 million on Friday after outflows of $487.07 million on Wednesday and $244.13 million on Thursday. Bitfire said a break above $85,600 could open the way toward $87,395, while a drop below $82,000 would raise the risk of a move toward $79,000.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | GLM-5.3-Flash-EXL3

[philipma1957]

Man… The son from Breaking Bad committed suicide… RIP. Hard to believe someone with an iconic role and money from royalties pouring in would choose to just end it, but it goes to show that money is nice, but it isn’t everything. Sad story that is still developing. Stacking Bitcoin is awesome, but don’t forget to have some fun in your life too!

He had cp and cp can get worse as you age.

Maybe he got tired of suffering.

Cp is cerebral palsy.

My wife has a friend  with it. Since 1978.

Cane in his 20s
crutchs in his 30s
 walker in his 40s
scooter and an aid in his 50s
 he is 72 and mostly bed ridden now.

So at 34 maybe suicide seemed good vs the above.