Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

My personal predictions are...  price to take out liquidity which is at that 75k and after liquidity has been taken out I expect higher prices and a break of that 86-90k resistance.
But for now price is still at 81k, and is moving on a down trend

Oh?  Personal prediction. 
Down before up, you say?

Anything between about $70k-ish and $92k-ish seems like noise, even though surely getting down to $70k would likely be quite depressing for a lot of the longer term bitcoin holders who seem to be ready for up and not very interested in down (present company - royal - included).

Oh well, I do get your point, but it's these little movements that creates the bigger ones,

To the extent that I might have had a personal passing point, I am not sure if you got it, even though you did respond to what you considered to be responsive..or elaboration on your earlier point.

Probably market might be so Intrested in that 74k liquidity before it makes a very significant bull movement that will be very noticeable,

Market interested.

WO members interested.

Yours truly interested.

Uie-pooie interested.


These might be different points of interest, no?

and also to those folks that might be stressed about the consolidation,

Haha..

Persons who might be stressed about our supposed consolidation interested.

I will point out that it seems to me that some persons are stressed when a consolidation might take one or two weeks, and others might be stressed when a consolidation takes 4-6 months and others might not agree about what might happen to be a reasonable definition of consolidation.

deley And dropping price can see it as probably a reason price acts this way, you know knowing price needs to get something lower before normal trend continues will wipe out stress or disappointments conserening dropping price,

It seems that I might have mentioned your own timeline earlier, too... which happens to be being registered on this forum for less than a year.. let's call it a little more than 11 months.

I have a difficult time appreciating how very many guys with that kind of a bitcoin timeline from very many situations would be trying to figure out whether there might be a dip or not rather than ongoingly buying bitcoin as the money comes in..

Yeah, I understand, from time to time, there might be guys who might have other investments and/or ways to reallocate into bitcoin from other assets /currencies that they might have.. so then perhaps in those circumstances, there might end up being more sensitivities to BTC price movements.

sometimes these are the reasons I analyse and it calms me down, and the market has also proven me right as well sometimes

Are you acting upon it?

which perhaps provides a couple of other potential categories of interest?

Traders/gamblers interested.

Couch surfers interested.

Cars fly and Satoshi's alive, people who once thought something is impossible is happening already.
About the roadster, I thought it's just another AI video that is created to confuse us but not it is happening for real and I am eagerly waiting to see them hitting the roads. Interesting part is Elon mentioned about using rocket engines on his Tesla cars in the year 2018 itself.

You could get a rocket kit for a volkswagen in the 60's, its nothing new.

Strapping a rocket engine and integrating 8 rockets inside the car isn't the same, but it remind me something, just like blockchain existed long before Bitcoin while Satoshi was the one who successfully implemented it into something useful amd gave us a usable product. I am not saying Elon is Satoshi just creating one more conspiracy theory for the internet.

I am not sure how to take what you might be saying @Findingnemo.

Sure, you seem to not be saying that Elon is Satoshi,

yet


you do seem to be suggesting that Elon is doing something very similar to what Satoshi had done - so in that regard, you seem to be suggesting that "they are both great men of our times."

Am I reading something wrongedly?


Any other great men (or women for that matter, why leave out the women in this?) that you would like to compare?  Or maybe a ranking?  A living legend versus a dead one?  Satoshi is dead, right?  Or?  We are trying to measure the outputs of these great men, and not the men themselves, right?

[edited out]

That is not Satoshi's claim to fame, solving the Generals dilemma is.

Bitcoin is just the first implementation.

This "first implementation" characterization could have some "interesting" ramifications down the road, if we are considering that the first implementation is still in the process of "playing itself out."

Maybe I should ask this provocative (perhaps a wee bit poking or trolling?) question? 

Are there any other "implementations" of the general's dilemma resolution in the room with us^** right now?

**I presume you know what I mean by "in the room" with us, but I could elaborate upon request.. but I hate to be so trite.

[Hueristic]

Are there any other "implementations" of the general's dilemma resolution in the room with us^** right now?

If you understand the game theory, and the implications of removing a trusted central authority.

I think thats some thing we call freedom.

Is that something people should think is important?  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Findingnemo]

~
Strapping a rocket engine and integrating 8 rockets inside the car isn't the same, but it remind me something, just like blockchain existed long before Bitcoin while Satoshi was the one who successfully implemented it into something useful amd gave us a usable product. I am not saying Elon is Satoshi just creating one more conspiracy theory for the internet.

I am not sure how to take what you might be saying @Findingnemo.

Sure, you seem to not be saying that Elon is Satoshi,

yet


you do seem to be suggesting that Elon is doing something very similar to what Satoshi had done - so in that regard, you seem to be suggesting that "they are both great men of our times."

Am I reading something wrongedly?

Any other great men (or women for that matter, why leave out the women in this?) that you would like to compare?  Or maybe a ranking?  A living legend versus a dead one?  Satoshi is dead, right?  Or?  We are trying to measure the outputs of these great men, and not the men themselves, right?

I am not saying they are the same person, maybe I wasn't very clear I just merged two bits from the previous haiku that caused the confusion or an interesting theory.

Elon has intentions and most of them lead towards making more money or having influence over something but Satoshi gave us something that no one expected and he vanished completely and probably that is one of the reason why people started to believe that there is no other agenda behind the creation of Bitcoin.

There are many living legends and I am just thrilled to be living in this period.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Are there any other "implementations" of the general's dilemma resolution in the room with us^** right now?

If you understand the game theory, and the implications of removing a trusted central authority.
I think thats some thing we call freedom.

Is that something people should think is important?  

Many of us recognize/appreciate (I am not talking about royal, here) that there are people who seem to have questionable values, and/or they might not always recognize what their values are and/or how those values might line up with their actions.

There are many folks who actually would prefer not to be told what to do or to be limited in their options, so sometimes they might not realize when and/or how their freedoms are being limited... and personally, I am not always clear about how my own freedoms are being limited through my actions.. and yeah, it can be difficult to choose more inconvenient paths, such as restricting our cell phone usage or choosing to buy and drive a pre-2000 car that is limited in its tracking capabilities.

By the way, you did not really answer the question. 

Did anyone else want to give it a shot?




Anyone?




Anyone?

[philipma1957]

Are there any other "implementations" of the general's dilemma resolution in the room with us^** right now?

If you understand the game theory, and the implications of removing a trusted central authority.
I think thats some thing we call freedom.

Is that something people should think is important?  

Many of us recognize/appreciate (I am not talking about royal, here) that there are people who seem to have questionable values, and/or they might not always recognize what their values are and/or how those values might line up with their actions.

There are many folks who actually would prefer not to be told what to do or to be limited in their options, so sometimes they might not realize when and/or how their freedoms are being limited... and personally, I am not always clear about how my own freedoms are being limited through my actions.. and yeah, it can be difficult to choose more inconvenient paths, such as restricting our cell phone usage or choosing to buy and drive a pre-2000 car that is limited in its tracking capabilities.

By the way, you did not really answer the question. 

Did anyone else want to give it a shot?




Anyone?




Anyone?

If you live in the USA and want pure freedom it is long gone.

[OgNasty]

Saylor talking about the four year cycle… Funny how he said it was dead when he was buying the top, it was dead when he was selling the bottom. Now the market catches a whiff of a rally around the four year cycle bottom and the four year cycle is why they designed their business the way they did. It really is a shame people think this guy is a Bitcoiner.

https://x.com/timel9379/status/2111830622784405912?s=46&t=bWFpJfwmRUMUsiGQTzTLyQ

[xhomerx10]

Are there any other "implementations" of the general's dilemma resolution in the room with us^** right now?

If you understand the game theory, and the implications of removing a trusted central authority.
I think thats some thing we call freedom.

Is that something people should think is important?  

Many of us recognize/appreciate (I am not talking about royal, here) that there are people who seem to have questionable values, and/or they might not always recognize what their values are and/or how those values might line up with their actions.

There are many folks who actually would prefer not to be told what to do or to be limited in their options, so sometimes they might not realize when and/or how their freedoms are being limited... and personally, I am not always clear about how my own freedoms are being limited through my actions.. and yeah, it can be difficult to choose more inconvenient paths, such as restricting our cell phone usage or choosing to buy and drive a pre-2000 car that is limited in its tracking capabilities.

By the way, you did not really answer the question. 

Did anyone else want to give it a shot?




Anyone?




Anyone?

If you live in the USA and want pure freedom it is long gone.

 No one anywhere has ever known pure freedom.  I believe that is death - the infinitesimal period of time when you become free from the constraints of your physical surroundings and of your own biology.  I do not recommend pure freedom.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Are there any other "implementations" of the general's dilemma resolution in the room with us^** right now?

If you understand the game theory, and the implications of removing a trusted central authority.
I think thats some thing we call freedom.

Is that something people should think is important?  

Many of us recognize/appreciate (I am not talking about royal, here) that there are people who seem to have questionable values, and/or they might not always recognize what their values are and/or how those values might line up with their actions.

There are many folks who actually would prefer not to be told what to do or to be limited in their options, so sometimes they might not realize when and/or how their freedoms are being limited... and personally, I am not always clear about how my own freedoms are being limited through my actions.. and yeah, it can be difficult to choose more inconvenient paths, such as restricting our cell phone usage or choosing to buy and drive a pre-2000 car that is limited in its tracking capabilities.

By the way, you did not really answer the question.  
Did anyone else want to give it a shot?

Anyone?
Anyone?

If you live in the USA and want pure freedom it is long gone.

That is not even close (not even in the same ballpark) in attempting to answer my question.  

Saylor talking about the four year cycle… Funny how he said it was dead when he was buying the top, it was dead when he was selling the bottom. Now the market catches a whiff of a rally around the four year cycle bottom and the four year cycle is why they designed their business the way they did. It really is a shame people think this guy is a Bitcoiner.
https://x.com/timel9379/status/2111830622784405912?s=46&t=bWFpJfwmRUMUsiGQTzTLyQ

If it were possible, I would just wuv to see uie-pooie and Saylor have a debate about bitcoin.. to see who knows more about bitcoin.. yes, restricting the topic to bitcoin may well help to show who the "true bitcoiner" happens to be, if there is such a thing?

An hour?  Would that be enough?  Of course, you @OgNasty might bring some bitcoin talking points (you might have to do some studying) and then try to elaborate on your talking points, and yeah, you might be saved by Saylor's inability to shut the fuck up, yet if some debate rules committee were to be able to limit responses to 3-8-ish minutes each, depending on the kind of question/topic, then yeah, I would imagine your smartie-assedness to be thoroughly kicked, but yeah, maybe you think that there is a chance that your (presumed smarter than everyone else) ass would not be thoroughly kicked.  hahahahaha..



It would be wuvveley to witness.

[edited out]

If you live in the USA and want pure freedom it is long gone.

No one anywhere has ever known pure freedom.  I believe that is death - the infinitesimal period of time when you become free from the constraints of your physical surroundings and of your own biology.  I do not recommend pure freedom.

You too?

 

[xhomerx10]

Are there any other "implementations" of the general's dilemma resolution in the room with us^** right now?

If you understand the game theory, and the implications of removing a trusted central authority.
I think thats some thing we call freedom.

Is that something people should think is important?  

Many of us recognize/appreciate (I am not talking about royal, here) that there are people who seem to have questionable values, and/or they might not always recognize what their values are and/or how those values might line up with their actions.

There are many folks who actually would prefer not to be told what to do or to be limited in their options, so sometimes they might not realize when and/or how their freedoms are being limited... and personally, I am not always clear about how my own freedoms are being limited through my actions.. and yeah, it can be difficult to choose more inconvenient paths, such as restricting our cell phone usage or choosing to buy and drive a pre-2000 car that is limited in its tracking capabilities.

By the way, you did not really answer the question.  
Did anyone else want to give it a shot?

Anyone?
Anyone?

If you live in the USA and want pure freedom it is long gone.

That is not even close (not even in the same ballpark) in attempting to answer my question.  

Saylor talking about the four year cycle… Funny how he said it was dead when he was buying the top, it was dead when he was selling the bottom. Now the market catches a whiff of a rally around the four year cycle bottom and the four year cycle is why they designed their business the way they did. It really is a shame people think this guy is a Bitcoiner.
https://x.com/timel9379/status/2111830622784405912?s=46&t=bWFpJfwmRUMUsiGQTzTLyQ

If it were possible, I would just wuv to see uie-pooie and Saylor have a debate about bitcoin.. to see who knows more about bitcoin.. yes, restricting the topic to bitcoin may well help to show who the "true bitcoiner" happens to be, if there is such a thing?

An hour?  Would that be enough?  Of course, you @OgNasty might bring some bitcoin talking points (you might have to do some studying) and then try to elaborate on your talking points, and yeah, you might be saved by Saylor's inability to shut the fuck up, yet if some debate rules committee were to be able to limit responses to 3-8-ish minutes each, depending on the kind of question/topic, then yeah, I would imagine your smartie-assedness to be thoroughly kicked, but yeah, maybe you think that there is a chance that your (presumed smarter than everyone else) ass would not be thoroughly kicked.  hahahahaha..



It would be wuvveley to witness.

[edited out]

If you live in the USA and want pure freedom it is long gone.

No one anywhere has ever known pure freedom.  I believe that is death - the infinitesimal period of time when you become free from the constraints of your physical surroundings and of your own biology.  I do not recommend pure freedom.

You too?

 

 Okay I had some Stellar but that was quite by accident.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

Saylor talking about the four year cycle… Funny how he said it was dead when he was buying the top, it was dead when he was selling the bottom. Now the market catches a whiff of a rally around the four year cycle bottom and the four year cycle is why they designed their business the way they did. It really is a shame people think this guy is a Bitcoiner.

https://x.com/timel9379/status/2111830622784405912?s=46&t=bWFpJfwmRUMUsiGQTzTLyQ

Too much vocal fry for me. After a few seconds, my eardrums were as crispy as well done potato chips. Pretty hot though. I'm sure she was chosen for her financial expertise and all.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobLawblaw]

What an absolutely insane week crunching on TensorFold.

I'm gunna sleep in so fuggin' hard tomorrow...

[d_eddie]

Attagirl!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-18 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-10-18 09:04 PM CT

Bitcoin is grinding higher into a quiet Sunday, up 0.94% over the past 24 hours while the Fear & Greed Index climbed to 59, firmly in Greed territory. The dominant story is structural: the SEC has approved Cboe binary options tied to Coinbase metrics and MARA's Bitcoin production, a small but telling sign of Wall Street building more ways to trade crypto exposure. Price remains below its 30-day average of $83,537, so this reads as a calm drift, not a recovery.

Outlook: Watch whether the Cboe binary options actually reach retail screens, since Robinhood eligibility and specific series availability were still unconfirmed as of Oct. 17. ETF flows are the other lane to monitor, because two straight weeks of outflows totaling roughly $910 million followed a hot CPI print, and any reversal would signal the rate-hike narrative has cooled.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $82,385.00, up 0.94% over 24 hours and up 0.8% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads +2 on a -50 to +50 scale. Buyers hold a narrow edge, but the tape lacks conviction in either direction. Price sits between support at $81,000 and resistance at $84,000, and the Fear & Greed reading of 59 (Greed) suggests participants lean comfortable rather than committed. A close below $81,000 would hand sellers control and open the path toward $79,500. Reclaiming $84,000 on sustained strength would put the upside target at $85,000 in play. The derived composite's mild positive tilt is consistent with a market drifting, not one positioned for a decisive move.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $81,000 (50%): Bitcoin holds the $81,000 support level through Friday, with daily closes staying above it while the Fear & Greed reading remains in Greed territory. The range between $81,000 and $84,000 persists, and neither boundary breaks on a closing basis. Invalidation: a daily close below $81,000 within five trading days, or a close above $84,000 that confirms a breakout instead of consolidation.
- Upside Break Toward $85,000 (28%): Buyers push through resistance at $84,000 on a closing basis within five trading days, converting the range ceiling into support. Greed sentiment at 59 would need to deepen into sustained risk appetite, and the move would carry price toward the $85,000 target. Invalidation: failure to close above $84,000 by Friday, or a rejection at that level that sends price back toward $81,000.
- Downside Re-test of $79,500 (22%): Sellers take out $81,000 support on a daily close within five trading days, breaking the floor that has held the recent range. The Fear & Greed reading would need to cool from Greed toward neutral as the level gives way, and the decline extends toward $79,500. Invalidation: buyers defend $81,000 and price closes back above it before Friday, restoring the range.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Fed rate path: The hotter-than-expected September CPI print has revived bets on another Federal Reserve hike, the macro thread connecting the ETF outflows and Thursday's leverage flush.
- Monday VIX seasonality: Historical data shows Friday VIX spikes of 20% or more faded the next Monday in 25 of 32 cases since 1990, a pattern that could calm cross-asset risk appetite this week.

TOP STORIES

1. SEC approves Cboe binary options on Coinbase metrics and MARA Bitcoin production
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/sec-approves-coinbase-earnings-bets-that-stay-settled-when-the-numbers-change
Published: 2026-10-18 10:00 AM CT
Summary: The SEC approved rules letting Cboe list binary options tied to Coinbase trading volume and MARA's Bitcoin production, with the order dated Oct. 13, 2026 and published in the Federal Register on Oct. 16. Eligible Coinbase metrics include transaction revenue, subscription and services revenue, and total trading volume, while MARA's permitted metrics cover Bitcoin produced and total Bitcoin holdings. A call pays $1 when the reported figure meets or exceeds the contract threshold, a put pays when it falls below, and a later restatement after settlement leaves the payout unchanged. Missing figures can delay settlement processing or trigger alternative clearing procedures that may use the option's last closing price, and the option can expire worthless if that price is unavailable or deemed unreliable. Trading availability for the specific series and Robinhood customer eligibility remained unconfirmed as of Oct. 17, though Cboe's Sept. 30 announcement had planned an October rollout across 23 companies with Robinhood as the first retail broker.

2. US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $228.6 million in second straight week of outflows
URL: https://decrypt.co/381246/bitcoin-etfs-shed-nearly-1-billion-two-weeks-UpTober-red
Published: 2026-10-18 10:01 AM CT
Summary: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows of $228.6 million this week, following a $681.1 million drain the week before, for roughly $910 million in combined outflows over two weeks. Outflows topped inflows on three of five trading days, with Wednesday's $261.4 million in redemptions the worst session after a $175.7 million inflow on Tuesday. The selling coincided with a hot inflation print, as September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year versus a 3.6% forecast, reviving bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike. Bitcoin briefly slipped below $80,000 on Thursday, and nearly $950 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, about 90% of them longs, according to CoinGlass. The back-to-back red weeks left the funds down about $615 million for October, though cumulative net inflows since the January 2024 launch still stand at $57.3 billion.

3. Nine crypto firms form Quantum Alliance to set quantum-resistance standards
URL: https://decrypt.co/381236/crypto-firms-launch-quantum-alliance-as-6-million-bitcoin-sit-exposed
Published: 2026-10-17 11:01 AM CT
Summary: Nine blockchain organizations launched the Quantum Alliance, an open standards body modeled on the Internet Engineering Task Force, to define what quantum-ready means and create a common way to verify quantum-resistance claims. The group warns that elliptic-curve signatures leave roughly 6.04 million BTC, about 30% of supply, quantum-exposed at rest, since a sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor's algorithm could reverse-engineer private keys once public keys are exposed on-chain. The same cryptography guards some shitcoin minting keys, bridges, oracles and governance contracts, so one cracked privileged key could cascade across platforms. The Alliance cites forecasts pointing toward the late 2020s, including a model co-built by two contributors flagging March 2028 as an early window and a Google Quantum AI study cutting the estimated qubits needed below 500,000. Work will run in four groups covering blockchain migration, post-quantum zero-knowledge systems, wallet security and cross-chain compatibility, joining a wider scramble that includes Coinbase urging early migration and a BlackRock, Strategy and Coinbase-backed consortium committing $15 million.

4. Friday VIX spike may fade Monday as history and bitcoin calm suggest
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/18/wall-street-freaked-out-friday-vix-and-bitcoin-say-it-may-not-last
Published: 2026-10-18
Summary: The VIX jumped 21.5% to 19.99 on Friday as the S&P 500 fell 1.09%, marking the fear gauge's biggest one-day rise since June 5. Traders bought 9,200 November 20-strike calls and 12,500 November 23-strike calls, betting the VIX closes above 23 by the third week of November. Historical data shows the VIX has jumped 20% or more on a Friday 32 times since January 1990, and it fell the following Monday in 25 of those cases, with a typical Monday decline of 4.5%. Seasonality also favors calmer markets, since the VIX has declined in November in 25 of the last 36 years with a median drop of 7.2%. Bitcoin held above $80,000 over the weekend, and Volmex's BVIV, the bitcoin volatility index, slipped 1% to just under 40% and barely moved after, suggesting no stress is carrying into Monday.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | GLM-5.3-Flash-EXL3