Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

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[xhomerx10]

No one anywhere has ever known pure freedom.  I believe that is death - the infinitesimal period of time when you become free from the constraints of your physical surroundings and of your own biology.  I do not recommend pure freedom.

And yet dying is so popular. Everyone does it.

 lol
I guess I should have specified "prematurely"

[xhomerx10]

Are there any other "implementations" of the general's dilemma resolution in the room with us^** right now?

If you understand the game theory, and the implications of removing a trusted central authority.
I think thats some thing we call freedom.

Is that something people should think is important?  

Many of us recognize/appreciate (I am not talking about royal, here) that there are people who seem to have questionable values, and/or they might not always recognize what their values are and/or how those values might line up with their actions.

There are many folks who actually would prefer not to be told what to do or to be limited in their options, so sometimes they might not realize when and/or how their freedoms are being limited... and personally, I am not always clear about how my own freedoms are being limited through my actions.. and yeah, it can be difficult to choose more inconvenient paths, such as restricting our cell phone usage or choosing to buy and drive a pre-2000 car that is limited in its tracking capabilities.

By the way, you did not really answer the question.  
Did anyone else want to give it a shot?

Anyone?
Anyone?

If you live in the USA and want pure freedom it is long gone.

That is not even close (not even in the same ballpark) in attempting to answer my question.  

Saylor talking about the four year cycle… Funny how he said it was dead when he was buying the top, it was dead when he was selling the bottom. Now the market catches a whiff of a rally around the four year cycle bottom and the four year cycle is why they designed their business the way they did. It really is a shame people think this guy is a Bitcoiner.
https://x.com/timel9379/status/2111830622784405912?s=46&t=bWFpJfwmRUMUsiGQTzTLyQ

If it were possible, I would just wuv to see uie-pooie and Saylor have a debate about bitcoin.. to see who knows more about bitcoin.. yes, restricting the topic to bitcoin may well help to show who the "true bitcoiner" happens to be, if there is such a thing?

An hour?  Would that be enough?  Of course, you @OgNasty might bring some bitcoin talking points (you might have to do some studying) and then try to elaborate on your talking points, and yeah, you might be saved by Saylor's inability to shut the fuck up, yet if some debate rules committee were to be able to limit responses to 3-8-ish minutes each, depending on the kind of question/topic, then yeah, I would imagine your smartie-assedness to be thoroughly kicked, but yeah, maybe you think that there is a chance that your (presumed smarter than everyone else) ass would not be thoroughly kicked.  hahahahaha..



It would be wuvveley to witness.

[edited out]

If you live in the USA and want pure freedom it is long gone.

No one anywhere has ever known pure freedom.  I believe that is death - the infinitesimal period of time when you become free from the constraints of your physical surroundings and of your own biology.  I do not recommend pure freedom.

You too?

 

death only offers freedom for your body not yourself.  Although some people believe that's is the ultimate freedom.

Frankly trying to answer JJG is not what I wanted to do at all. To me being free is not really a big goal. My friend 30 years or so is worth well over 20 million but he has zero freedom with that money. He also is 79 and will be 80 in a month. He just did a second hip surgery so health issue suck for him. When he was 70 and healthy or more healthy he was deathly by most standards and still created chains for himself via beliefs and behaviors.

I realize being human and alive will always mean we are all a bit caged in by our beliefs and our physicalities.

This was my point of answering the question the first time. So I was wrong by saying you are not free in America because I made it sound like you could be free elsewhere and the truth is not yet on this planet.

 Well said, Mr. philipma1957.  Regardless of our wealth or country of residence we can make ourselves more or less free simply though our thoughts and actions.  It's kind of depressing when you think about it, so I choose not to - time for a coffee!

[ChartBuddy]

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[Danish Ali]

death only offers freedom for your body not yourself.  Although some people believe that's is the ultimate freedom.

Frankly trying to answer JJG is not what I wanted to do at all. To me being free is not really a big goal. My friend 30 years or so is worth well over 20 million but he has zero freedom with that money. He also is 79 and will be 80 in a month. He just did a second hip surgery so health issue suck for him. When he was 70 and healthy or more healthy he was deathly by most standards and still created chains for himself via beliefs and behaviors.

I realize being human and alive will always mean we are all a bit caged in by our beliefs and our physicalities.

This was my point of answering the question the first time. So I was wrong by saying you are not free in America because I made it sound like you could be free elsewhere and the truth is not yet on this planet.

20 million and still no freedom? Makes me feel better about my three bags of random groceries.

[ChartBuddy]

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[JayJuanGee]

Saylor talking about the four year cycle… Funny how he said it was dead when he was buying the top, it was dead when he was selling the bottom. Now the market catches a whiff of a rally around the four year cycle bottom and the four year cycle is why they designed their business the way they did. It really is a shame people think this guy is a Bitcoiner.
https://x.com/timel9379/status/2111830622784405912?s=46&t=bWFpJfwmRUMUsiGQTzTLyQ

The man who deserves the fact that his company bought over 800 000 BTC in the eyes of many is a bitcoiner just because of the fact that he has so many coins that makes him special. To me, he is just a business man who at some point realized that he could make a lot of money if he invests in Bitcoin and if history repeats itself.

If by any chance he had the same opinion in 2013, today he might be one of the richest people in the world.

Bitcoin would have likely become a different beast if Saylor became "enlightened" about bitcoin in 2013 rather than 2020, and yeah of course, history cannot be turned back in that regard, and history ended up coming out with Saylor warming up to bitcoin in mid 2020, buying himself an initial stash (of 10k bitcoin), and then getting his company on board .. with the many evolutions of his increasing the bitcoin-related financial instruments (or increasing attempts at financial and perhaps propaganda manipulation, perhaps?) 

Some may well reasonably argue that he is not a true bitcoiner - and he had turned into a shitcoiner or sympathetic to shitcoins or attempting to bring bitcoin down to shitcoin levels.  Whether a net positive or a net negative for bitcoin, normies cannot really do too much about the bitcoin treasuries matters, and sure I suppose some participate in Saylor/MSTR products, other bitcoin treasury matters and even other bitcoin derivative products (we talking bitcoin ETFs?) and others do not participate (and it isn't even all or nothing - why not both?), so there can be complaints about the amount of mind-space Saylor, his company and the various bitcoin treasury companies take up.  Adoption of bitcoin was never likely to be a straight-forward path, and there likely have been some more "pure" bitcoiner guys who had gotten out of bitcoin based on some of the recent complications and confusing dynamics around bitcoin derivative products.

I went to the market with her to buy one item and came back with three bags of random groceries.

If you know, you know.

If I had big money bags with me to pay for my stuff, I would do the same thing.

[edited out]

Are there any other "implementations" of the general's dilemma resolution in the room with us^** right now?

death only offers freedom for your body not yourself.  Although some people believe that's is the ultimate freedom.

Frankly trying to answer JJG is not what I wanted to do at all.

Of course, you didn't.   

Anyone?


Anyone?

[edited out]

I guess I should have specified "prematurely"

Don't do it, homer!!!

 

[xhomerx10]

Saylor talking about the four year cycle… Funny how he said it was dead when he was buying the top, it was dead when he was selling the bottom. Now the market catches a whiff of a rally around the four year cycle bottom and the four year cycle is why they designed their business the way they did. It really is a shame people think this guy is a Bitcoiner.
https://x.com/timel9379/status/2111830622784405912?s=46&t=bWFpJfwmRUMUsiGQTzTLyQ

The man who deserves the fact that his company bought over 800 000 BTC in the eyes of many is a bitcoiner just because of the fact that he has so many coins that makes him special. To me, he is just a business man who at some point realized that he could make a lot of money if he invests in Bitcoin and if history repeats itself.

If by any chance he had the same opinion in 2013, today he might be one of the richest people in the world.

Bitcoin would have likely become a different beast if Saylor became "enlightened" about bitcoin in 2013 rather than 2020, and yeah of course, history cannot be turned back in that regard, and history ended up coming out with Saylor warming up to bitcoin in mid 2020, buying himself an initial stash (of 10k bitcoin), and then getting his company on board .. with the many evolutions of his increasing the bitcoin-related financial instruments (or increasing attempts at financial and perhaps propaganda manipulation, perhaps?) 

Some may well reasonably argue that he is not a true bitcoiner - and he had turned into a shitcoiner or sympathetic to shitcoins or attempting to bring bitcoin down to shitcoin levels.  Whether a net positive or a net negative for bitcoin, normies cannot really do too much about the bitcoin treasuries matters, and sure I suppose some participate in Saylor/MSTR products, other bitcoin treasury matters and even other bitcoin derivative products (we talking bitcoin ETFs?) and others do not participate (and it isn't even all or nothing - why not both?), so there can be complaints about the amount of mind-space Saylor, his company and the various bitcoin treasury companies take up.  Adoption of bitcoin was never likely to be a straight-forward path, and there likely have been some more "pure" bitcoiner guys who had gotten out of bitcoin based on some of the recent complications and confusing dynamics around bitcoin derivative products.

I went to the market with her to buy one item and came back with three bags of random groceries.

If you know, you know.

If I had big money bags with me to pay for my stuff, I would do the same thing.

[edited out]

Are there any other "implementations" of the general's dilemma resolution in the room with us^** right now?

death only offers freedom for your body not yourself.  Although some people believe that's is the ultimate freedom.

Frankly trying to answer JJG is not what I wanted to do at all.

Of course, you didn't.   

Anyone?


Anyone?

[edited out]

I guess I should have specified "prematurely"

Don't do it, homer!!!

 

 And there it is - yet more evidence that you secretly care.  Thank you Mr. JJG. ❤️

[ChartBuddy]

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[xhomerx10]

Five in a row is too many ChartBuddy

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[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-19 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-10-19 09:04 PM CT

Monday opens with Strategy's buy in the headlines: the company added 267 BTC for $22.1 million last week, a modest accumulation that lands alongside a Fear and Greed reading of 55, still in Greed territory but down 7 points over the past week. The market itself is doing very little, slipping 0.81% over 24 hours and trading below its 30-day average of $83,532, which reads as a grind rather than a recovery or a capitulation. The dominant story is accumulation at these levels, not distribution, and that tension between a buyer of last resort and a cooling sentiment trend is the thing to watch.

Outlook: Watch the MSCI index decision due November 11, since a finalized rule treating non-operating companies as ineligible could affect Strategy's index membership and any forced rebalancing flows around it. The CFTC's court fight with CME over perpetual futures is the other structural thread, because a ruling either way shapes how domestic perps markets unwind or grow. Both are Bitcoin-adjacent structural catalysts rather than price signals, so treat them as context for positioning, not direction.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $81,702.00, down 0.81% over 24 hours and down 1.8% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads -3 on a -50 to +50 scale. Sellers and buyers are both showing restraint, with the daily range compressing near the middle of the $80,000 to $83,000 band. The Fear and Greed reading of 55 sits in neutral-to-greed territory, which suggests retail sentiment has not deteriorated despite the week of drift lower. The derived Institutional Lag Composite at -3, a momentum and sentiment composite, hints that larger participants are neither pressing nor retreating in size. Control currently sits with neither side in a decisive way, and the $80,000 support level is the line that would hand the tape to sellers if it breaks on a daily close. A reclaim of $83,000 would instead signal that buyers have absorbed the recent supply and could open the path toward $84,500.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $80,000 (51%): A daily close above $81,500 without losing $80,000, alongside the Fear and Greed reading holding in the 45 to 60 band, would confirm range-bound churn through Friday. Invalidation: a daily close below $80,000 within five trading days.
- Reclaim of $83,000 Toward $84,500 (21%): Buyers would need to push a daily close above $83,000 while the Fear and Greed reading rises above 60, signaling conviction returning to the bid. Invalidation: failure to hold above $82,000 on any close within five trading days after the breakout.
- Downside Re-test of $79,000 (28%): A daily close below $80,000, confirmed by the Fear and Greed reading dropping below 45, would put $79,000 in play as the next reference level. Invalidation: a recovery close back above $81,500 within five trading days of the break.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- MSCI index rule deadline: The finalized eligibility rule excluding non-operating companies puts Strategy's index inclusion in question, with the affected list due November 11 and potential passive fund rebalancing to follow.
- Rate-hike repricing: Markets now assign roughly a 15% chance of a quarter-point hike next week on hot CPI and PPI prints, a macro backdrop that sits underneath the risk-asset weakness both Bitcoin and the Nasdaq shared last week.

TOP STORIES

1. Strategy buys 267 BTC for $22.1 million, expands STRC buyback program to $3 billion
URL: https://decrypt.co/381302/strategy-buys-22m-in-bitcoin-buys-back-193m-of-strc
Published: 2026-10-19 08:04 AM CT
Summary: Strategy bought 267 BTC for $22.1 million between October 12 and 18, paying an average of $82,900 per coin including fees, according to an SEC filing. The company now holds 848,517 BTC acquired for a total of $64.02 billion at an average of $75,446 per coin. It funded the purchase with $22 million raised by selling 140,872 MSTR common shares through its at-the-market program plus $0.1 million of cash, and repurchased $193.1 million of its STRC preferred stock from cash reserves. The board raised the cap on its digital credit securities repurchase program to $3 billion from $2 billion, leaving $1.16 billion available as of October 18, while a separate common stock buyback program has $1 billion remaining. The company also faces possible removal from MSCI's equity indexes under a finalized rule treating non-operating companies as ineligible, with the affected list due November 11.

2. Bitcoin hovers near $82,000 as inflation and yields weigh on risk assets
URL: https://decrypt.co/381319/bitcoin-price-key-support-oil-ai-fears-squeeze-markets
Published: 2026-10-19 11:05 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin trades near $82,164, up about 1% on the day, after touching $83,040 and giving back part of the gain. Brent crude near $108 a barrel, CPI at 3.7%, and PPI at 6.3% have pushed rate-hike expectations higher, with markets pricing roughly a 15% chance of a quarter-point hike next week. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.08%, and the Nasdaq fell more than 2% on Friday in its worst week since June, with CoreWeave down about 24% for the week on debt-funded AI spending. On the daily chart, Bitcoin sits on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $81,603 inside the $81,847 to $82,305 golden zone, with the 50-day EMA at about $80,548 above the 200-day EMA at about $75,932 in a golden cross. The ADX reads 21.6 and RSI 49.3, signaling no firm trend, while a close below $81,603 opens $81,196 and bulls need closes above $83,330 and $84,246.

3. Dormant Bitcoin wallet moves 411 BTC after 13 years, named in New York abandonment lawsuit
URL: https://decrypt.co/381337/abandoned-bitcoin-wallet-noah-doe-lawsuit-moves-33-million
Published: 2026-10-19 11:46 AM CT
Summary: A Bitcoin address first funded on September 11, 2013 moved 411.45 BTC, worth about $33.4 million, in its first outgoing transfer ever, according to Galaxy Research. The coins cost roughly $54,000 when Bitcoin traded near $130, and Galaxy put the holder's average cost basis near $127, a paper gain of more than 64,000%. The transfer went to a single unlabeled address rather than an exchange, so the owner's intent remains unclear. Galaxy tagged the sender as one of 39,069 dormant addresses named in a New York lawsuit by a pseudonymous plaintiff called Noah Doe, who argues the wallets holding about 3.8 million BTC qualify as abandoned property under state law despite the plaintiffs holding no private keys. Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn has said the pace of dormant Noah Doe coins moving onchain is accelerating month over month, and each transfer requiring private keys undercuts the abandonment claim.

4. CFTC rebuffs CME legal stance in fight over perpetual futures
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/10/19/u-s-cftc-rebuffs-cme-legal-stance-in-consequential-fight-over-perpetual-futures
Published: 2026-10-19
Summary: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission argues in a court brief that CME Group lacks legal standing to challenge the agency's new perpetual futures policy, because the exchange has not shown imminent financial injury from increased competition. The CFTC approved the first bitcoin perp from Kalshi in May and said it would regulate such products on a case-by-case basis as futures, a move that opened the door for domestic perps trading. CME contends the contracts are swaps rather than futures, since they carry no expiration date, which would trigger a different regulatory approach. The agency noted that CME's own crypto futures volume has risen since the policy shift, and accused the exchange of telling investors on earnings calls that it sees no demand for perps. TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg said CME may still have the edge on standing and the swaps argument, but warned that continued growth in perps during litigation could complicate unwinding the market if CME prevails.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | GLM-5.3-Flash-EXL3

[xhomerx10]

Richard Riehle, Smykowski from 'Office Space,' dies at 78

 

I might have to watch that movie tonight.

RIP Mr. Riehle

[ChartBuddy]

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