Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

 
  -oOAH! it's been a long time since I've seen news like this...

 In the podcast, Chamath Palihapitiya is convinced that a future AI hack could eventually infiltrate Bitcoin and send its value to zero. In the interview, the CEO identified privacy exposure and AI-enabled hacking as risks facing traditional cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin.

Technology as magic thinking.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Hey I still like BTC and most of my investments are BTC at the moment
but  I am hedged and not 90% BTC anymore.

As for how to hedge it depends.
Gold silver platinum
cash

tech stocks
btc
and maybe the new mixed fund FIBT it opens on the 27th

Sure.  It might make sense for mature investors, especially guys getting into their late 60s, early 70s and beyond to maintain a variety of assets, and even with a presumption that they might have been keeping and building up those assets over the years.

I have frequently suggested that guys who are newer to investing and even newer to bitcoin to let their bitcoin ride, so it may well take 4-10 years or longer for a relatively new guy to build up their bitcoin investment and/or other assets in their investment portfolio in such ways that it starts to make sense to diversify into other assets.

So for example a guy might earn $30k per year and invest around $100 per week into bitcoin (which happens to be 17.33% of his income), so by the time he invests 6 years into bitcoin, he would have had invested 1 year of his income into bitcoin, and at the same time, he may well be building up back up funds too.  I would think that his decision to diversify would be based on both the size of his bitcoin investment and how big his back up funds are getting, and surely the bigger the bitcoin holdings, the more justification to hold more back up funds, and the more back up funds, the more the guy may well want the back up funds to be working for him rather than being in cash.  So maybe somewhere in the ballpark of greater than 4 months of back up funds in cash, the guy might end up diversifying in other assets.

So you may well see that my above perspective description remains bitcoin-oriented rather than being distracted in likely inferior asset classes.  Another aspect of bitcoin is it's appreciation, so surely the longer that a guy is building his bitcoin and presumptively holding it rather than fucking around moving it around and reallocating into crap, then the more likely the bitcoin would have had appreciated in value and even perhaps had done some stair-stepping up in its value, so it seems to me that guys here who have had been holding onto bitcoin for decently long times, they have considerations of both the value that they put into it and the amount that it had appreciated, maybe if we might consider 6-ish years as a good amount of time to build the bitcoin holdings, we might still consider that longer term guys here may well still be erroring on the side of holding, even if they might have had already done most of their bitcoin building in around their first 6 years of investing into bitcoin.

We might need a new descriptor for UpTober.

Choptober would be a good descriptor
October highest compared to the very beginning price for October (October 1st) was 4.8 percent higher, guess where the price is now as October rounds up,,,
4.8 percent lower from the very beginning price of this month
Such a choppy month

79,500 k at the moment

In this thread, "chopter" has some UPpity sentiment, so there may be tension with using that, even though choptober is not really bad in terms of describing the uncertainty and sideways.. and maybe chop has a bit of a violent sentiment too.. like it could do anything, even though guys like to proclaim that october has upwards historical inclinations.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Calm before the storm…

Y'all thought I was kidding?

The 30 day chart shows a monthly low on a huge volume spike (at least huge on the 30 day chart) which is a good sign that we hit bottom in the near term.  It could get much worse very quickly, so I've battened down the hatches in preparation for the worst while hoping for the best.  The old timer in me says the lows must be retested before the highs, but I know that is an unpopular opinion.  Still, long term holders would probably be wise to accumulate through any dips at this point.  We are rapidly approaching up only season.

[El duderino_]

Unpopular opinion still is an opinion to respect

[Danish Ali]

Unpopular opinion still is an opinion to respect

Agreed. Respect goes both ways.

And I'll respect it, as long as the retest doesnt go to 50k. 

[OutOfMemory]

OT:

This raised my concern: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1Gn3WChZjI
Its about how big tech industry is advancing from moving computing power from private to corporate possession.
If you have the hour of time to watch it, or listen to it in the background, you should do it, imo. There is much repetition, though.

Seems it's the time to finally switch to Linux on my desktop(s). The dealbreaker is, however, audio software that doesn't run natively on Linux.
However, as this is offline stuff, i can run old trusty windows 10 using a local account to circumvent those limitations.
I think i'll scrub another laptop i kept after upgrading my hardware and install a Linux testing system. If it satisfies me, i'll migrate.

I'm also concerned about AI users, which may be unable to run LMM's on their own hardware at some point, but inside a rented VM on a cloud service, where you can't count on privacy.

---------------

Continuing to buy BTC via lump sum investing. Some wait for another drop, but if it really happens in the near future, i'd doubt that it will be going very low, considering the current market dynamics. Seems i'm sharing parts of Og's view on this.

[Hueristic]

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.

[Biodom]

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.

..provided that you sold at the top.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Had someone who for years has been telling me they don't buy bitcoin  because they are happy with their 4-8% yearly guaranteed returns tell me they are pissed they are down 20% this year, lol, I didn't say I told you so.

[Hueristic]

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.

..provided that you sold at the top.

Or got greedy and sold expecting a drop.

It's infinitely worse if you sell at 80k expecting 60k thinking your smart and then watch a spike to 120k and have it flip to support.

I'd rather hold and know I'm insulated from the fuckery.

[OutOfMemory]

Had someone who for years has been telling me they don't buy bitcoin  because they are happy with their 4-8% yearly guaranteed returns tell me they are pissed they are down 20% this year, lol, I didn't say I told you so.

Real men don't embarrass losers  
I'd even advise to buy some BTC for self custody and provide some tips for secure storage.

That said, my question from a couple of weeks ago is answered, the search ended.
Outcome: The race between Trezor Safe 5 and Jade Core had a surprise finish:

Trezor Safe 3  

Thanks for your input, you guys know who you are  

(edited for better wording)

[OgNasty]

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.

Buying the dips is a bad thing now?  This thread needs to be studied for cope.  The levels are consistently off the chart.

Edit: One thing I will add… My recent studying of trading algorithms and Warren Buffett quotes led me to the reality that the best trading rules are the ones that keep you from making trades. So people are right to discourage trading. However, that doesn’t mean all trading rules are bad. Some outperform. In Bitcoin’s case, that outperformance comes from selling once every 4 years and stacking the rest of the time. We are in a stacking year, so the best trading rule one could have currently is to not sell. I should also mention I have not sold any BTC this year nor do I have plans to. I simply chose not to buy at inflated prices, which falls into the best rule category of not making a trade if the conditions aren’t right. See you next time. The more you know. 

[Danish Ali]

Had someone who for years has been telling me they don't buy bitcoin  because they are happy with their 4-8% yearly guaranteed returns tell me they are pissed they are down 20% this year, lol, I didn't say I told you so.

I have many examples like this in my circle too.

Resisting the 'I told you so' is the real HODL strength.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.

Buying the dips is a bad thing now?  This thread needs to be studied for cope.  The levels are consistently off the chart.

Edit: One thing I will add… My recent studying of trading algorithms and Warren Buffett quotes led me to the reality that the best trading rules are the ones that keep you from making trades. So people are right to discourage trading. However, that doesn’t mean all trading rules are bad. Some outperform. In Bitcoin’s case, that outperformance comes from selling once every 4 years and stacking the rest of the time. We are in a stacking year, so the best trading rule one could have currently is to not sell. I should also mention I have not sold any BTC this year nor do I have plans to. I simply chose not to buy at inflated prices, which falls into the best rule category of not making a trade if the conditions aren’t right. See you next time. The more you know. 

The fact you need this explained to you explains why you still need to work.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com