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Question: Is the "bear market" over?
Yes - 46 (41.1%)
No - we need to sweep the low again - 24 (21.4%)
No - we need to set a new low first - 26 (23.2%)
No - other (explain below) - 16 (14.3%)
Total Voters: 112

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 27072143 times)
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ChartBuddy
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October 24, 2026, 06:24:59 PM
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)

Calm before the storm…

Y'all thought I was kidding?

The 30 day chart shows a monthly low on a huge volume spike (at least huge on the 30 day chart) which is a good sign that we hit bottom in the near term.  It could get much worse very quickly, so I've battened down the hatches in preparation for the worst while hoping for the best.  The old timer in me says the lows must be retested before the highs, but I know that is an unpopular opinion.  Still, long term holders would probably be wise to accumulate through any dips at this point.  We are rapidly approaching up only season.
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October 24, 2026, 06:36:15 PM
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)

Unpopular opinion still is an opinion to respect
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October 24, 2026, 06:45:54 PM

Unpopular opinion still is an opinion to respect

Agreed. Respect goes both ways.

And I'll respect it, as long as the retest doesnt go to 50k.  Grin
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October 24, 2026, 06:46:45 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

OT:

This raised my concern: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1Gn3WChZjI
Its about how big tech industry is advancing from moving computing power from private to corporate possession.
If you have the hour of time to watch it, or listen to it in the background, you should do it, imo. There is much repetition, though.

Seems it's the time to finally switch to Linux on my desktop(s). The dealbreaker is, however, audio software that doesn't run natively on Linux.
However, as this is offline stuff, i can run old trusty windows 10 using a local account to circumvent those limitations.
I think i'll scrub another laptop i kept after upgrading my hardware and install a Linux testing system. If it satisfies me, i'll migrate.

I'm also concerned about AI users, which may be unable to run LMM's on their own hardware at some point, but inside a rented VM on a cloud service, where you can't count on privacy.

---------------

Continuing to buy BTC via lump sum investing. Some wait for another drop, but if it really happens in the near future, i'd doubt that it will be going very low, considering the current market dynamics. Seems i'm sharing parts of Og's view on this.
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October 24, 2026, 06:57:19 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (14), vapourminer (1), Biodom (1), JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1), OutOfMemory (1)

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.
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October 24, 2026, 06:59:59 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), OutOfMemory (1)

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.

..provided that you sold at the top.
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October 24, 2026, 07:03:04 PM

Had someone who for years has been telling me they don't buy bitcoin  because they are happy with their 4-8% yearly guaranteed returns tell me they are pissed they are down 20% this year, lol, I didn't say I told you so.
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October 24, 2026, 07:06:40 PM

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.

..provided that you sold at the top.

Or got greedy and sold expecting a drop.

It's infinitely worse if you sell at 80k expecting 60k thinking your smart and then watch a spike to 120k and have it flip to support.

I'd rather hold and know I'm insulated from the fuckery.
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October 24, 2026, 07:21:09 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Had someone who for years has been telling me they don't buy bitcoin  because they are happy with their 4-8% yearly guaranteed returns tell me they are pissed they are down 20% this year, lol, I didn't say I told you so.

Real men don't embarrass losers  Grin
I'd even advise to buy some BTC for self custody and provide some tips for secure storage.

That said, my question from a couple of weeks ago is answered, the search ended.
Outcome: The race between Trezor Safe 5 and Jade Core had a surprise finish:

Trezor Safe 3  Cheesy

Thanks for your input, you guys know who you are  Wink

(edited for better wording)
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October 24, 2026, 07:28:38 PM
Last edit: October 24, 2026, 08:00:21 PM by OgNasty

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.

Buying the dips is a bad thing now?  This thread needs to be studied for cope.  The levels are consistently off the chart.

Edit: One thing I will add… My recent studying of trading algorithms and Warren Buffett quotes led me to the reality that the best trading rules are the ones that keep you from making trades. So people are right to discourage trading. However, that doesn’t mean all trading rules are bad. Some outperform. In Bitcoin’s case, that outperformance comes from selling once every 4 years and stacking the rest of the time. We are in a stacking year, so the best trading rule one could have currently is to not sell. I should also mention I have not sold any BTC this year nor do I have plans to. I simply chose not to buy at inflated prices, which falls into the best rule category of not making a trade if the conditions aren’t right. See you next time. The more you know. 
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October 24, 2026, 07:52:46 PM

Had someone who for years has been telling me they don't buy bitcoin  because they are happy with their 4-8% yearly guaranteed returns tell me they are pissed they are down 20% this year, lol, I didn't say I told you so.

I have many examples like this in my circle too.

Resisting the 'I told you so' is the real HODL strength. Wink
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October 24, 2026, 08:29:34 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.

Buying the dips is a bad thing now?  This thread needs to be studied for cope.  The levels are consistently off the chart.

Edit: One thing I will add… My recent studying of trading algorithms and Warren Buffett quotes led me to the reality that the best trading rules are the ones that keep you from making trades. So people are right to discourage trading. However, that doesn’t mean all trading rules are bad. Some outperform. In Bitcoin’s case, that outperformance comes from selling once every 4 years and stacking the rest of the time. We are in a stacking year, so the best trading rule one could have currently is to not sell. I should also mention I have not sold any BTC this year nor do I have plans to. I simply chose not to buy at inflated prices, which falls into the best rule category of not making a trade if the conditions aren’t right. See you next time. The more you know. 

The fact you need this explained to you explains why you still need to work.
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October 24, 2026, 10:26:48 PM



Buying the dips is a bad thing now?  This thread needs to be studied for cope.  The levels are consistently off the chart.

Edit: One thing I will add… My recent studying of trading algorithms and Warren Buffett quotes led me to the reality that the best trading rules are the ones that keep you from making trades. So people are right to discourage trading. However, that doesn’t mean all trading rules are bad. Some outperform. In Bitcoin’s case, that outperformance comes from selling once every 4 years and stacking the rest of the time. We are in a stacking year, so the best trading rule one could have currently is to not sell. I should also mention I have not sold any BTC this year nor do I have plans to. I simply chose not to buy at inflated prices, which falls into the best rule category of not making a trade if the conditions aren’t right. See you next time. The more you know. 

The best trading rules are those that gives you enough reason to enter a trade, because a rule is considered as best it must have met all the requirements that is need for one to trade. And secondly it all depends on your strategy and approach.

And due to the fact that different people have different goals and start accumulating bitcoin at different time I wouldn't assume that everyone is still in their Accumulation period, some may have reach their target, though there's still for one to keep accumulating bitcoin regardless of the Accumulation phase he is, as long as an investor is still able to figure out his discretionary income it is important to keep accumulating bitcoin and hold for the long term growth.
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October 24, 2026, 11:02:10 PM
Last edit: October 24, 2026, 11:14:27 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by Hueristic (1)

Unpopular opinion still is an opinion to respect
Agreed. Respect goes both ways.

And I'll respect it, as long as the retest doesnt go to 50k.  Grin

I'll respect such retarded unpopular opinion as long as we don't go below $79k.

Continuing to buy BTC via lump sum investing. Some wait for another drop, but if it really happens in the near future, i'd doubt that it will be going very low, considering the current market dynamics. Seems i'm sharing parts of Og's view on this.

Technically, you are not lump sum investing.  You are trying to buy the dip... whatever dip there might be.

Lump sum investing tends to be a kind of investing that involves either money coming available or your making the money available, so then once the lump sum is available then you have the choice to 1) buy right away (lump sum), 2) defer based on time (DCA) and/or 3) defer based on price (buy dips that may or may not end up happening).

In your case, you likely sold bitcoin earlier or you were just saving up money to build up a lump sum so that you can try to buy on dips, which is really (technically) more about the category of buying the dip rather than lump sum.

In udder wurds, dip buying and lump sum buying are two different things, and the mere fact that you are calling your practice lump sum does not cause it to be lump sum because you are likely both using dip buying money and/or you are trying to buy dips with the money that you had not sufficiently/adequately already gotten on the bitcoin rocket.  

Yes. I understand that we have traders in these here parts trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller.  How has that been going for you guys?  Of course, some guys (ie traders) only bang 10s, so for sure they will be telling us how successful their trades had been going in the past 8-12-ish months, no?

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.
..provided that you sold at the top.

Traders figure out all kinds of creative ways to either lower the quantity of coins that they had and/or fail/refuse to ongoingly buy bitcoin, which also ends up reducing the quantity of coins that they could have had if they had continued to buy and had not been fucking around trying to gamble with whatever stash that they had.

Sure, there are going to be some guys proclaiming to have had sold at the top (which we have to take with a grain of salt), but yeah, there is surely also a trick in buying back.. which could potentially offset all of the coins that they had not been buying in the past 2-ish years.

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.
Buying the dips is a bad thing now?  This thread needs to be studied for cope.  The levels are consistently off the chart.

Edit: One thing I will add… My recent studying of trading algorithms and Warren Buffett quotes led me to the reality that the best trading rules are the ones that keep you from making trades. So people are right to discourage trading. However, that doesn’t mean all trading rules are bad. Some outperform. In Bitcoin’s case, that outperformance comes from selling once every 4 years and stacking the rest of the time. We are in a stacking year, so the best trading rule one could have currently is to not sell. I should also mention I have not sold any BTC this year nor do I have plans to. I simply chose not to buy at inflated prices, which falls into the best rule category of not making a trade if the conditions aren’t right. See you next time. The more you know.  

Just imagine if you had actually followed "the best rule category" and you had bought $100 worth of bitcoin per month for two years between June 2011 and June 2013, you would have had accumulated 315.5 BTC, and surely I doubt that it would matter right now if you sold any or not in 2026.

With 315.5 BTC, you could have had started withdrawing somewhere in the ballpark of $18k per month in October 2020, which would be $216k per year, and you would still have 230.5 bitcoin right now.

Are you going to say $216k per year would have had not been enough for uie-pooie?  Of course, you could have had done more than that, but having around 230.5 BTC right now, would also not be a bad thing for most guys.  230.5 BTC should be "enough" or more than enough bitcoin for most guys, no?

By the way, I believe that right now with 230.5 bitcoin, you could easily have a sustainable income of about $115k per month, which would be close to $1.5 million per year, which it seems that bitcoin would allow you to increase your yearly income every year by right around 7% and still be sustainable... So the amount of 230.5 BTC seems to be enough and/or more than enough bitcoin for most normie guys.

Buying the dips is a bad thing now?  This thread needs to be studied for cope.  The levels are consistently off the chart.

Edit: One thing I will add… My recent studying of trading algorithms and Warren Buffett quotes led me to the reality that the best trading rules are the ones that keep you from making trades. So people are right to discourage trading. However, that doesn’t mean all trading rules are bad. Some outperform. In Bitcoin’s case, that outperformance comes from selling once every 4 years and stacking the rest of the time. We are in a stacking year, so the best trading rule one could have currently is to not sell. I should also mention I have not sold any BTC this year nor do I have plans to. I simply chose not to buy at inflated prices, which falls into the best rule category of not making a trade if the conditions aren’t right. See you next time. The more you know.  
The best trading rules are those that gives you enough reason to enter a trade, because a rule is considered as best it must have met all the requirements that is need for one to trade. And secondly it all depends on your strategy and approach.

And due to the fact that different people have different goals and start accumulating bitcoin at different time I wouldn't assume that everyone is still in their Accumulation period, some may have reach their target, though there's still for one to keep accumulating bitcoin regardless of the Accumulation phase he is, as long as an investor is still able to figure out his discretionary income it is important to keep accumulating bitcoin and hold for the long term growth.

Most likely OgNasty is still in his bitcoin accumulation phase because he has been trading bitcoin and shitcoin and other scammy stuff since mid-2011 (when he joined the forum)... So yeah, of course, anywhere between Mid-2011 and late 2016, it would have had been good to be focusing on bitcoin accumulation, instead of fucking around trying to trade and/or trying to be smarter than everyone else.

OgNasty said that he ONLY first learned about bitcoin cycles in 2018 (which seems that he is a bit of "slow" learner), so even if he stopped fucking around with his trying to trade and be involved in scams, and started to seriously accumulate bitcoin, he could have had gotten a decent amount of coins from 2018 to now, and perhaps wouldn't even have to be continuing to be trying to trade whatever little bitcoin he might happen to have relative to what he could have had if he had actually focused on accumulating bitcoin through buying only rather than trying to trade and trying to "get lucky" with bitcoin, which many of us recognize that bitcoin is better as an investment that you build up rather than a toy to try to gamble with.
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