Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

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[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-24 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-10-24 09:03 PM CT

Bitcoin is grinding sideways on a thin Saturday, with the Fear & Greed Index stuck at 54 for a third straight day and the 24-hour move flat at -0.08%. The real story today is leverage, not price: bitcoin briefly slipped below $80,000 this morning and $404 million in long liquidations were flushed out in four hours, most of it on Binance. Price remains below the 30-day average of $83,105, and the seven-day trend is down 1.5%, so this is a market absorbing damage rather than recovering.

Outlook: Watch whether the liquidation cascade is truly finished or just paused, since the two bursts this morning came in quick succession and thin weekend books can amplify the next move either way. Also keep an eye on the ETF flow picture into next week: Friday saw $137.94 million in net outflows led by IBIT, but the funds still closed the week with $304.73 million in net inflows, so the weekly trend has not broken yet.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $80,789.00, down 0.08% over 24 hours and down 1.5% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads -2 on a -50 to +50 scale. Sellers still hold the initiative, but their grip is loosening: the 30-day slide of 3.9% is steeper than the 7-day decline of 1.5%, which tells you the heaviest pressure came earlier and daily moves have since narrowed. That pattern may indicate fading selling urgency rather than fresh conviction on either side. The computed levels frame the fight: $79,500 is the floor that has to hold, $82,000 is the ceiling that has to break, and price sits roughly midway between them. A decisive close above $82,000 would hand control to buyers and open $83,500; a close below $79,500 would confirm the sellers and point to $78,000. Sentiment at 54 is neutral, so positioning is not stretched in either direction, and that leaves room for a resolution once one of those levels gives way.

SCENARIOS

- Chop Contained Above $79,500 (50%): triggers: price prints a daily close at or above $79,500 and no daily close below it through Friday, with Fear & Greed holding between 45 and 60. Invalidation: any daily close under $79,500 within five trading days.
- Reclaim of $82,000 Toward $83,500 (17%): triggers: a daily close above $82,000, backed by Fear & Greed pushing above 60, would signal buyers wresting control and set up a run at $83,500. Invalidation: a daily close back below $82,000 within five trading days.
- Breakdown Through $79,500 to $78,000 (33%): triggers: the floor gives way on a daily close below $79,500, and with sentiment already neutral there is little cushion beneath it, so the next stop is $78,000. Invalidation: a daily close back above $79,500 within five trading days.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Preferred Stock Capital Competition: Strategy spent $193 million repurchasing STRC and raised its preferred repurchase authorization to $3 billion, which means buybacks are now competing directly with bitcoin purchases for the same capital, a structural shift worth watching.
- Unsupported Node Concentration: Roughly 44% of surveyed Bitcoin Core peers run end-of-life release lines, and that share would rise to 51% once version 32.0 ships, which is a slow-burn network risk rather than a price driver today.

TOP STORIES

1. Crypto longs lose $404 million in four hours as bitcoin briefly slips below $80,000
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-24-crypto-longs-lose-404-million-in-four-hours-as-bitcoin-briefly-slips-below-80000-431608
Published: 2026-10-24 12:43 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 on Saturday, and leveraged long positions absorbed most of the damage. Of $436.44 million liquidated in the four hours to 1 p.m. ET, $404.15 million were longs, per CoinGlass data. Most of that came in two bursts: $208.21 million in the 15 minutes from 10:15 a.m. ET as bitcoin dropped from about $80,640 to $80,100, and another $131.17 million from 11:15 a.m. Bitcoin touched about $79,280 around 11:20 a.m. ET before recovering to $80,138 by 1 p.m., and it was down 1.9% over 24 hours while some shitcoin fell 3.8% to $2,314. Liquidations of $136.72 million in some shitcoin came close to bitcoin's $158.45 million despite its market cap being roughly 18% of bitcoin's, and Binance accounted for $226.07 million of the four-hour total with 96% of those longs. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs logged $137.94 million in net outflows on Friday, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $110.34 million and Fidelity's FBTC for $31.78 million, following $635.49 million in outflows on Thursday; the funds still ended the week with $304.73 million in net inflows and held $104.43 billion in net assets as of Friday. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said early Saturday that he had closed the directional book at Maelstrom, his family office, writing "I dumped it all" and that he took profits on it, some different shitcoin, yet another different shitcoin and other tokens, adding "I think we gotta go down to go up."

2. Bitcoin Core speeds up security fixes as 44% of surveyed nodes run unsupported versions
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-core-speeds-up-security-fixes-as-44-of-surveyed-nodes-run-unsupported-versions
Published: 2026-10-24 09:45 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin Core merged a policy amendment on Oct. 22 that lets developers backport fixes for easily rediscovered vulnerabilities to every maintained release line and publish an advisory alongside them. A network snapshot from Oct. 18 shows that 3,671 of 8,422 self-reported Bitcoin Core peers (43.6%) ran release lines that had already reached end of life. Bitcoin Core maintains its three newest major lines, currently 29.x, 30.x and 31.x, and once version 32.0 is formally released, 29.x leaves the maintenance window. If the sample stayed unchanged, 4,306 of 8,422 peers, or 51.1%, would sit on unsupported lines. Antoine Poinsot argued in the Oct. 22 announcement that the old embargo period achieves little but delays the availability of a fixed release, and Poinsot acknowledged on Oct. 20 that mitigations won't have as much bake time in development branches.

3. Strategy and Strive weigh bitcoin buying against preferred stock dividends
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/24/strategy-strive-face-balancing-act-between-bitcoin-buying-and-preferred-stock-dividends
Published: 2026-10-24
Summary: Preferred stock sales by bitcoin treasury companies funded purchases of 135,979 BTC through Oct. 5 since the securities debuted in 2025, according to Fidelity research analyst Zack Wainwright. Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, has five classes of perpetual preferred shares, and its first offering, STRK, launched in February 2025. Fidelity puts the bitcoin-focused preferred market at roughly $12 billion against a $150 trillion global fixed-income market. StoneX analyst Mark Palmer said perpetual preferreds brought bitcoin exposure to income investors that ETFs never reached, while Bitwise research head Ryan Rasmussen expects ETFs to remain the larger demand channel and preferreds to serve as a second tailwind for yield buyers. Strategy spent $193 million repurchasing STRC alongside purchases of just 267 bitcoin in its latest weekly update, and the firm raised its preferred repurchase authorization to $3 billion, according to CoinShares research head James Butterfill, who noted buybacks compete with bitcoin purchases for capital today. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have drawn about $57 billion in cumulative net inflows and hold around $106 billion in assets, Butterfill said.

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[philipma1957]

Palihapatya is a self-obsessed nincompoop, imho.
He had something like several % of btc way back in 2013, then basically squandered it, losing billions if not tens of billions in potential profits.
Now, he is mumbling that he has given his bitcoin to DCG in exchange for equity...yes, pal, you gave just some percentage of the initial stash, right?
Since then, he is always talking down bitcoin, just like some (not all) sellers on this forum.
Of course, it is also nonsense if bitcoin has no value as ETF depends on the underlying.

OT re SpaceX...dems winning both houses might not be good for Musk/SPCX, but could be neutral, I dunno.

I will likely buy some FIBT

Which should be broad enough to hedge.

I will be 70 in about 95 days.

Can't be all high risk, but I am thinking that Republicans do better than expected. This should keep the insane rethoric calmer.

I see the oil game lasting for 2 - 4 years.

I see the oil game as liquid nitrous for the rich.

Pull the  trick every 20-25 years cause inflation with high oil prices. The rich get the boost by hurting the middle and the poor.

They the rich  also get tax cuts in the oil inflation moves.

I watched it 3 times in my life so this one lasts til 2029 or 2030.

At least the hybrid helps with gas.

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[BobClawblaw]

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[OutOfMemory]

Continuing to buy BTC via lump sum investing. Some wait for another drop, but if it really happens in the near future, i'd doubt that it will be going very low, considering the current market dynamics. Seems i'm sharing parts of Og's view on this.

Technically, you are not lump sum investing.  You are trying to buy the dip... whatever dip there might be.

Lump sum investing tends to be a kind of investing that involves either money coming available or your making the money available, so then once the lump sum is available then you have the choice to 1) buy right away (lump sum), 2) defer based on time (DCA) and/or 3) defer based on price (buy dips that may or may not end up happening).

In your case, you likely sold bitcoin earlier or you were just saving up money to build up a lump sum so that you can try to buy on dips, which is really (technically) more about the category of buying the dip rather than lump sum.

In udder wurds, dip buying and lump sum buying are two different things, and the mere fact that you are calling your practice lump sum does not cause it to be lump sum because you are likely both using dip buying money and/or you are trying to buy dips with the money that you had not sufficiently/adequately already gotten on the bitcoin rocket.  

Yes. I understand that we have traders in these here parts trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller.  How has that been going for you guys?  Of course, some guys (ie traders) only bang 10s, so for sure they will be telling us how successful their trades had been going in the past 8-12-ish months, no?

Thanks that you brought this up in such detail.
It seems to be a yes-and-no, in my actual case, because i am holding back fiat money for financial reasons, mostly ongoing plans about the house etc. - which can change quickly - and there was "surprise-income", like getting paid earlier for the solar-power i export to the grid, getting back more for overpaying electricity a bit, doing more work as a part time employee than expected... When the sum goes over my "active-savings" limits, i invest the excess money into BTC. If the price just was on a rise, i try to catch the pullbacks, the breathers, the corrections, of course. And i don't necessarily push all the money into Bitcoin, but in a few portions. This is where i try to "ride the waves" and it was working out more often than not. We're talking about single percent values here, no biggie, but still not nothing.

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[Lucius]

Is a new attack on Iran being prepared? US and Israeli military activities point to this, and the US is sending the USS Theodore Roosevelt to the Middle East. It seems that the "geniuses" still haven't realized that what they are doing is completely pointless, because attacking a country where women and children tie themselves to bridges and key infrastructure really doesn't make sense.

At the same time, there is supposed to be real panic among business partners of the T-dynasty, given that in the event of a change of power in Congress, many investigations will be opened against them. Various consulting firms and law firms have their hands full.

How will Bitcoin react if a new wave of attacks on Iran is launched and the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed again?