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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 27071810 times)
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Grease5000
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October 24, 2026, 10:26:48 PM



Buying the dips is a bad thing now?  This thread needs to be studied for cope.  The levels are consistently off the chart.

Edit: One thing I will add… My recent studying of trading algorithms and Warren Buffett quotes led me to the reality that the best trading rules are the ones that keep you from making trades. So people are right to discourage trading. However, that doesn’t mean all trading rules are bad. Some outperform. In Bitcoin’s case, that outperformance comes from selling once every 4 years and stacking the rest of the time. We are in a stacking year, so the best trading rule one could have currently is to not sell. I should also mention I have not sold any BTC this year nor do I have plans to. I simply chose not to buy at inflated prices, which falls into the best rule category of not making a trade if the conditions aren’t right. See you next time. The more you know. 

The best trading rules are those that gives you enough reason to enter a trade, because a rule is considered as best it must have met all the requirements that is need for one to trade. And secondly it all depends on your strategy and approach.

And due to the fact that different people have different goals and start accumulating bitcoin at different time I wouldn't assume that everyone is still in their Accumulation period, some may have reach their target, though there's still for one to keep accumulating bitcoin regardless of the Accumulation phase he is, as long as an investor is still able to figure out his discretionary income it is important to keep accumulating bitcoin and hold for the long term growth.
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October 24, 2026, 11:02:10 PM
Last edit: October 24, 2026, 11:14:27 PM by JayJuanGee
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Unpopular opinion still is an opinion to respect
Agreed. Respect goes both ways.

And I'll respect it, as long as the retest doesnt go to 50k.  Grin

I'll respect such retarded unpopular opinion as long as we don't go below $79k.

Continuing to buy BTC via lump sum investing. Some wait for another drop, but if it really happens in the near future, i'd doubt that it will be going very low, considering the current market dynamics. Seems i'm sharing parts of Og's view on this.

Technically, you are not lump sum investing.  You are trying to buy the dip... whatever dip there might be.

Lump sum investing tends to be a kind of investing that involves either money coming available or your making the money available, so then once the lump sum is available then you have the choice to 1) buy right away (lump sum), 2) defer based on time (DCA) and/or 3) defer based on price (buy dips that may or may not end up happening).

In your case, you likely sold bitcoin earlier or you were just saving up money to build up a lump sum so that you can try to buy on dips, which is really (technically) more about the category of buying the dip rather than lump sum.

In udder wurds, dip buying and lump sum buying are two different things, and the mere fact that you are calling your practice lump sum does not cause it to be lump sum because you are likely both using dip buying money and/or you are trying to buy dips with the money that you had not sufficiently/adequately already gotten on the bitcoin rocket.  

Yes. I understand that we have traders in these here parts trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller.  How has that been going for you guys?  Of course, some guys (ie traders) only bang 10s, so for sure they will be telling us how successful their trades had been going in the past 8-12-ish months, no?

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.
..provided that you sold at the top.

Traders figure out all kinds of creative ways to either lower the quantity of coins that they had and/or fail/refuse to ongoingly buy bitcoin, which also ends up reducing the quantity of coins that they could have had if they had continued to buy and had not been fucking around trying to gamble with whatever stash that they had.

Sure, there are going to be some guys proclaiming to have had sold at the top (which we have to take with a grain of salt), but yeah, there is surely also a trick in buying back.. which could potentially offset all of the coins that they had not been buying in the past 2-ish years.

Waiting for a dump at or near the bottom is how you become a no-coiner.
Buying the dips is a bad thing now?  This thread needs to be studied for cope.  The levels are consistently off the chart.

Edit: One thing I will add… My recent studying of trading algorithms and Warren Buffett quotes led me to the reality that the best trading rules are the ones that keep you from making trades. So people are right to discourage trading. However, that doesn’t mean all trading rules are bad. Some outperform. In Bitcoin’s case, that outperformance comes from selling once every 4 years and stacking the rest of the time. We are in a stacking year, so the best trading rule one could have currently is to not sell. I should also mention I have not sold any BTC this year nor do I have plans to. I simply chose not to buy at inflated prices, which falls into the best rule category of not making a trade if the conditions aren’t right. See you next time. The more you know.  

Just imagine if you had actually followed "the best rule category" and you had bought $100 worth of bitcoin per month for two years between June 2011 and June 2013, you would have had accumulated 315.5 BTC, and surely I doubt that it would matter right now if you sold any or not in 2026.

With 315.5 BTC, you could have had started withdrawing somewhere in the ballpark of $18k per month in October 2020, which would be $216k per year, and you would still have 230.5 bitcoin right now.

Are you going to say $216k per year would have had not been enough for uie-pooie?  Of course, you could have had done more than that, but having around 230.5 BTC right now, would also not be a bad thing for most guys.  230.5 BTC should be "enough" or more than enough bitcoin for most guys, no?

By the way, I believe that right now with 230.5 bitcoin, you could easily have a sustainable income of about $115k per month, which would be close to $1.5 million per year, which it seems that bitcoin would allow you to increase your yearly income every year by right around 7% and still be sustainable... So the amount of 230.5 BTC seems to be enough and/or more than enough bitcoin for most normie guys.

Buying the dips is a bad thing now?  This thread needs to be studied for cope.  The levels are consistently off the chart.

Edit: One thing I will add… My recent studying of trading algorithms and Warren Buffett quotes led me to the reality that the best trading rules are the ones that keep you from making trades. So people are right to discourage trading. However, that doesn’t mean all trading rules are bad. Some outperform. In Bitcoin’s case, that outperformance comes from selling once every 4 years and stacking the rest of the time. We are in a stacking year, so the best trading rule one could have currently is to not sell. I should also mention I have not sold any BTC this year nor do I have plans to. I simply chose not to buy at inflated prices, which falls into the best rule category of not making a trade if the conditions aren’t right. See you next time. The more you know.  
The best trading rules are those that gives you enough reason to enter a trade, because a rule is considered as best it must have met all the requirements that is need for one to trade. And secondly it all depends on your strategy and approach.

And due to the fact that different people have different goals and start accumulating bitcoin at different time I wouldn't assume that everyone is still in their Accumulation period, some may have reach their target, though there's still for one to keep accumulating bitcoin regardless of the Accumulation phase he is, as long as an investor is still able to figure out his discretionary income it is important to keep accumulating bitcoin and hold for the long term growth.

Most likely OgNasty is still in his bitcoin accumulation phase because he has been trading bitcoin and shitcoin and other scammy stuff since mid-2011 (when he joined the forum)... So yeah, of course, anywhere between Mid-2011 and late 2016, it would have had been good to be focusing on bitcoin accumulation, instead of fucking around trying to trade and/or trying to be smarter than everyone else.

OgNasty said that he ONLY first learned about bitcoin cycles in 2018 (which seems that he is a bit of "slow" learner), so even if he stopped fucking around with his trying to trade and be involved in scams, and started to seriously accumulate bitcoin, he could have had gotten a decent amount of coins from 2018 to now, and perhaps wouldn't even have to be continuing to be trying to trade whatever little bitcoin he might happen to have relative to what he could have had if he had actually focused on accumulating bitcoin through buying only rather than trying to trade and trying to "get lucky" with bitcoin, which many of us recognize that bitcoin is better as an investment that you build up rather than a toy to try to gamble with.
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October 25, 2026, 02:04:18 AM

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-24 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-10-24 09:03 PM CT

Bitcoin is grinding sideways on a thin Saturday, with the Fear & Greed Index stuck at 54 for a third straight day and the 24-hour move flat at -0.08%. The real story today is leverage, not price: bitcoin briefly slipped below $80,000 this morning and $404 million in long liquidations were flushed out in four hours, most of it on Binance. Price remains below the 30-day average of $83,105, and the seven-day trend is down 1.5%, so this is a market absorbing damage rather than recovering.

Outlook: Watch whether the liquidation cascade is truly finished or just paused, since the two bursts this morning came in quick succession and thin weekend books can amplify the next move either way. Also keep an eye on the ETF flow picture into next week: Friday saw $137.94 million in net outflows led by IBIT, but the funds still closed the week with $304.73 million in net inflows, so the weekly trend has not broken yet.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $80,789.00, down 0.08% over 24 hours and down 1.5% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads -2 on a -50 to +50 scale. Sellers still hold the initiative, but their grip is loosening: the 30-day slide of 3.9% is steeper than the 7-day decline of 1.5%, which tells you the heaviest pressure came earlier and daily moves have since narrowed. That pattern may indicate fading selling urgency rather than fresh conviction on either side. The computed levels frame the fight: $79,500 is the floor that has to hold, $82,000 is the ceiling that has to break, and price sits roughly midway between them. A decisive close above $82,000 would hand control to buyers and open $83,500; a close below $79,500 would confirm the sellers and point to $78,000. Sentiment at 54 is neutral, so positioning is not stretched in either direction, and that leaves room for a resolution once one of those levels gives way.

SCENARIOS

- Chop Contained Above $79,500 (50%): triggers: price prints a daily close at or above $79,500 and no daily close below it through Friday, with Fear & Greed holding between 45 and 60. Invalidation: any daily close under $79,500 within five trading days.
- Reclaim of $82,000 Toward $83,500 (17%): triggers: a daily close above $82,000, backed by Fear & Greed pushing above 60, would signal buyers wresting control and set up a run at $83,500. Invalidation: a daily close back below $82,000 within five trading days.
- Breakdown Through $79,500 to $78,000 (33%): triggers: the floor gives way on a daily close below $79,500, and with sentiment already neutral there is little cushion beneath it, so the next stop is $78,000. Invalidation: a daily close back above $79,500 within five trading days.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Preferred Stock Capital Competition: Strategy spent $193 million repurchasing STRC and raised its preferred repurchase authorization to $3 billion, which means buybacks are now competing directly with bitcoin purchases for the same capital, a structural shift worth watching.
- Unsupported Node Concentration: Roughly 44% of surveyed Bitcoin Core peers run end-of-life release lines, and that share would rise to 51% once version 32.0 ships, which is a slow-burn network risk rather than a price driver today.

TOP STORIES

1. Crypto longs lose $404 million in four hours as bitcoin briefly slips below $80,000
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-24-crypto-longs-lose-404-million-in-four-hours-as-bitcoin-briefly-slips-below-80000-431608
Published: 2026-10-24 12:43 PM CT
Summary: Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 on Saturday, and leveraged long positions absorbed most of the damage. Of $436.44 million liquidated in the four hours to 1 p.m. ET, $404.15 million were longs, per CoinGlass data. Most of that came in two bursts: $208.21 million in the 15 minutes from 10:15 a.m. ET as bitcoin dropped from about $80,640 to $80,100, and another $131.17 million from 11:15 a.m. Bitcoin touched about $79,280 around 11:20 a.m. ET before recovering to $80,138 by 1 p.m., and it was down 1.9% over 24 hours while some shitcoin fell 3.8% to $2,314. Liquidations of $136.72 million in some shitcoin came close to bitcoin's $158.45 million despite its market cap being roughly 18% of bitcoin's, and Binance accounted for $226.07 million of the four-hour total with 96% of those longs. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs logged $137.94 million in net outflows on Friday, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $110.34 million and Fidelity's FBTC for $31.78 million, following $635.49 million in outflows on Thursday; the funds still ended the week with $304.73 million in net inflows and held $104.43 billion in net assets as of Friday. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said early Saturday that he had closed the directional book at Maelstrom, his family office, writing "I dumped it all" and that he took profits on it, some different shitcoin, yet another different shitcoin and other tokens, adding "I think we gotta go down to go up."

2. Bitcoin Core speeds up security fixes as 44% of surveyed nodes run unsupported versions
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-core-speeds-up-security-fixes-as-44-of-surveyed-nodes-run-unsupported-versions
Published: 2026-10-24 09:45 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin Core merged a policy amendment on Oct. 22 that lets developers backport fixes for easily rediscovered vulnerabilities to every maintained release line and publish an advisory alongside them. A network snapshot from Oct. 18 shows that 3,671 of 8,422 self-reported Bitcoin Core peers (43.6%) ran release lines that had already reached end of life. Bitcoin Core maintains its three newest major lines, currently 29.x, 30.x and 31.x, and once version 32.0 is formally released, 29.x leaves the maintenance window. If the sample stayed unchanged, 4,306 of 8,422 peers, or 51.1%, would sit on unsupported lines. Antoine Poinsot argued in the Oct. 22 announcement that the old embargo period achieves little but delays the availability of a fixed release, and Poinsot acknowledged on Oct. 20 that mitigations won't have as much bake time in development branches.

3. Strategy and Strive weigh bitcoin buying against preferred stock dividends
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/24/strategy-strive-face-balancing-act-between-bitcoin-buying-and-preferred-stock-dividends
Published: 2026-10-24
Summary: Preferred stock sales by bitcoin treasury companies funded purchases of 135,979 BTC through Oct. 5 since the securities debuted in 2025, according to Fidelity research analyst Zack Wainwright. Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, has five classes of perpetual preferred shares, and its first offering, STRK, launched in February 2025. Fidelity puts the bitcoin-focused preferred market at roughly $12 billion against a $150 trillion global fixed-income market. StoneX analyst Mark Palmer said perpetual preferreds brought bitcoin exposure to income investors that ETFs never reached, while Bitwise research head Ryan Rasmussen expects ETFs to remain the larger demand channel and preferreds to serve as a second tailwind for yield buyers. Strategy spent $193 million repurchasing STRC alongside purchases of just 267 bitcoin in its latest weekly update, and the firm raised its preferred repurchase authorization to $3 billion, according to CoinShares research head James Butterfill, who noted buybacks compete with bitcoin purchases for capital today. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have drawn about $57 billion in cumulative net inflows and hold around $106 billion in assets, Butterfill said.

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October 25, 2026, 03:29:34 AM

Palihapatya is a self-obsessed nincompoop, imho.
He had something like several % of btc way back in 2013, then basically squandered it, losing billions if not tens of billions in potential profits.
Now, he is mumbling that he has given his bitcoin to DCG in exchange for equity...yes, pal, you gave just some percentage of the initial stash, right?
Since then, he is always talking down bitcoin, just like some (not all) sellers on this forum.
Of course, it is also nonsense if bitcoin has no value as ETF depends on the underlying.

OT re SpaceX...dems winning both houses might not be good for Musk/SPCX, but could be neutral, I dunno.

I will likely buy some FIBT

Which should be broad enough to hedge.

I will be 70 in about 95 days.

Can't be all high risk, but I am thinking that Republicans do better than expected. This should keep the insane rethoric calmer.

I see the oil game lasting for 2 - 4 years.

I see the oil game as liquid nitrous for the rich.

Pull the  trick every 20-25 years cause inflation with high oil prices. The rich get the boost by hurting the middle and the poor.

They the rich  also get tax cuts in the oil inflation moves.

I watched it 3 times in my life so this one lasts til 2029 or 2030.

At least the hybrid helps with gas.
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October 25, 2026, 08:38:58 AM
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Continuing to buy BTC via lump sum investing. Some wait for another drop, but if it really happens in the near future, i'd doubt that it will be going very low, considering the current market dynamics. Seems i'm sharing parts of Og's view on this.

Technically, you are not lump sum investing.  You are trying to buy the dip... whatever dip there might be.

Lump sum investing tends to be a kind of investing that involves either money coming available or your making the money available, so then once the lump sum is available then you have the choice to 1) buy right away (lump sum), 2) defer based on time (DCA) and/or 3) defer based on price (buy dips that may or may not end up happening).

In your case, you likely sold bitcoin earlier or you were just saving up money to build up a lump sum so that you can try to buy on dips, which is really (technically) more about the category of buying the dip rather than lump sum.

In udder wurds, dip buying and lump sum buying are two different things, and the mere fact that you are calling your practice lump sum does not cause it to be lump sum because you are likely both using dip buying money and/or you are trying to buy dips with the money that you had not sufficiently/adequately already gotten on the bitcoin rocket.  

Yes. I understand that we have traders in these here parts trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller.  How has that been going for you guys?  Of course, some guys (ie traders) only bang 10s, so for sure they will be telling us how successful their trades had been going in the past 8-12-ish months, no?

Thanks that you brought this up in such detail.
It seems to be a yes-and-no, in my actual case, because i am holding back fiat money for financial reasons, mostly ongoing plans about the house etc. - which can change quickly - and there was "surprise-income", like getting paid earlier for the solar-power i export to the grid, getting back more for overpaying electricity a bit, doing more work as a part time employee than expected... When the sum goes over my "active-savings" limits, i invest the excess money into BTC. If the price just was on a rise, i try to catch the pullbacks, the breathers, the corrections, of course. And i don't necessarily push all the money into Bitcoin, but in a few portions. This is where i try to "ride the waves" and it was working out more often than not. We're talking about single percent values here, no biggie, but still not nothing.

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