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Question: Is the "bear market" over?
Yes - 46 (41.8%)
No - we need to sweep the low again - 24 (21.8%)
No - we need to set a new low first - 25 (22.7%)
No - other (explain below) - 15 (13.6%)
Total Voters: 110

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 27071810 times)
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OgNasty
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October 25, 2026, 08:03:31 PM



Buying the dips is a bad thing now?  This thread needs to be studied for cope.  The levels are consistently off the chart.

Edit: One thing I will add… My recent studying of trading algorithms and Warren Buffett quotes led me to the reality that the best trading rules are the ones that keep you from making trades. So people are right to discourage trading. However, that doesn’t mean all trading rules are bad. Some outperform. In Bitcoin’s case, that outperformance comes from selling once every 4 years and stacking the rest of the time. We are in a stacking year, so the best trading rule one could have currently is to not sell. I should also mention I have not sold any BTC this year nor do I have plans to. I simply chose not to buy at inflated prices, which falls into the best rule category of not making a trade if the conditions aren’t right. See you next time. The more you know.  

The best trading rules are those that gives you enough reason to enter a trade, because a rule is considered as best it must have met all the requirements that is need for one to trade. And secondly it all depends on your strategy and approach.

I might have agreed with you before I studied legendary investors.  Now I know that you are wrong and I am right.  It isn't even a matter of opinion. Smiley

I stand firmly with Warren Buffett in the camp that less trades is more profitable.  It is actually something I've been preaching for some time now with my repeated praise of the 4-year cycle trading method.  After several decades of trading experience I can tell you that the way to make a fortune is to wait for a good idea (Bitcoin, Nvidia, Amazon, SpaceX, etc...) and then buy for the long haul.  They don't come around every day.  Waiting for the right investment and then going hard is the way.  If you're always trying to make a trade instead of waiting for the right trade, you will quickly learn why the best performing investment class is deceased people, and it isn't even close.
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October 25, 2026, 08:34:36 PM

I stand firmly with Warren Buffett in the camp that less trades is more profitable.  It is actually something I've been preaching for some time now with my repeated praise of the 4-year cycle trading method.  After several decades of trading experience I can tell you that the way to make a fortune is to wait for a good idea (Bitcoin, Nvidia, Amazon, SpaceX, etc...) and then buy for the long haul.  They don't come around every day.  Waiting for the right investment and then going hard is the way.  If you're always trying to make a trade instead of waiting for the right trade, you will quickly learn why the best performing investment class is deceased people, and it isn't even close.

That's classic Poker, literally.
You don't try to play your hands right, you try to play the right hands.
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October 25, 2026, 08:42:15 PM

To be in Bangkok
Hmm I checked it out, really does look like a chill place to spend time

https://pin.it/Esnxao8Jq

You know beginning of this year, is had plans to go to France for Christmas, but as the year is now coming to an end, they give me a big reason not to even dare  Smiley with the aggressive protest going on I don't think it will be a good idea going there for now.

I'm not really familiar with Bangkok, I saw it here and decided to do a brief research, it's a chill place, another year I could plan towards going there


Meanwhile I didn't really expect much changes as weekend have really low liquidity,
With market going lower, odds of taking out liquidity at 75k increases, with calm observations if that liqidity is eventually taken out and price feels satisfied to go higher, I guess going to Bangkok will not be a big issue  Cheesy
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October 25, 2026, 09:14:06 PM

Seems to be quite a show around these We Royal parts.
Props where props is due.

No mooning ? Probably Andromeding ? Really looking towards the actual happening any days now..

btw Hi 😁
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October 25, 2026, 11:31:43 PM

Buddy is sideways sunday
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October 26, 2026, 02:04:49 AM

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-25 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-10-25 09:04 PM CT

Bitcoin ETFs bled $137.9 million on Friday, their second straight day of outflows, and that flow print is the story heading into a thin Sunday session. The Fear & Greed Index has sat at Neutral 50 for four consecutive days, though the gauge has slipped 5 points over the past week, and price is trading below the 30-day moving average of $82,938. Bitcoin is down 1.45% over 24 hours and 2.7% over seven days, a slow grind lower rather than a capitulation.

Outlook: Watch whether the ETF outflow streak extends into Monday, since Friday's $137.9 million exit followed Thursday's $635.6 million redemption and the two-day slide totaled roughly $773.5 million. The week still finished net positive at about $301 million, so the question is whether that bid returns or the October trend, now negative at roughly $314 million, reasserts itself. Weekend liquidity is thin, so any move before Monday's open should be read with caution.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $79,623.00, down 1.45% over 24 hours and down 2.7% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads -1 on a -50 to +50 scale. Sellers hold the initiative, and the tape reflects a market that has drifted lower without panic. The 30-day slide of 5.6% has carried price toward the $77,000 support, and that level now defines the near-term argument: holding it keeps the range intact, while losing it opens the $75,000 downside target. A Neutral Fear & Greed reading of 50 tells us sentiment has cooled but not capitulated, so the market retains room to move either way. What would flip control is a decisive reclaim of $82,000, which would put the $84,500 upside target in play and shift the burden back onto sellers. Until one of those boundaries gives way, the path of least resistance remains sideways-to-lower.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $77,000 (41%): triggers: price prints a daily close at or above $77,000 and holds that floor through Friday, with Fear & Greed staying at or above 40. Invalidation: a daily close below $77,000 within five trading days.
- Reclaim of $82,000 Toward $84,500 (13%): the market needs a catalyst to break the current drift, and the checkable version is a daily close above $82,000. If buyers manage that through Friday, the $84,500 upside target comes into view. Invalidation: price fails to close above $82,000 by Friday, or slips back below $77,000 first.
- Downside Re-test of $75,000 (46%): with sellers still setting the tone and the 30-day trend pointing lower, the likelier break is downward. A daily close below $77,000 within five trading days opens the $75,000 downside target. Invalidation: price closes back above $77,000 before reaching $75,000, or Fear & Greed recovers above 55.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- ETF flow reversal risk: Friday's $137.9 million outflow extended a two-day slide of about $773.5 million, and the question is whether that streak carries into Monday after the week still closed net positive near $301 million.
- Mining cost squeeze: Difficulty rose 5.33% alongside an estimated 650 EH/s hashrate, which raises the cost of production per coin and pressures hashprice, miners' revenue per petahash per day, if price does not recover.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin ETFs End Week Up $301M but October Still Down $314M
URL: https://decrypt.co/381777/bitcoin-etfs-snap-two-week-losing-streak-despite-late-week-slide
Published: 2026-10-25 09:01 AM CT
Summary: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $137.9 million on Friday, their second straight day of outflows, and the two-day slide totaled about $773.5 million. The funds still finished the week up roughly $301 million, snapping a two-week losing streak. October remains negative for the Bitcoin funds at about $314 million, after Thursday's $635.6 million exit, the biggest of the month, flipped them back into the red. ETFs for some shitcoin took in $4.4 million Friday but lost about $221 million on the week and sit down roughly $1.18 billion for October, while ETFs for some different shitcoin saw no net flows Friday and are down about $68 million this month. Bitcoin fell 1.1% over 24 hours to about $80,490 and is down 1.2% on the week, and Myriad traders now give a 43% chance of a drop to $77,500 this month, up from 32% a day earlier.

2. Tether's AI Mining Agent Leaves Approval Authority to the Mine Site
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/paolo-ardoino-wants-ai-to-run-bitcoin-mines-who-gets-permission-to-act
Published: 2026-10-25 04:30 PM CT
Summary: Tether announced commitments from 15 industry participants on October 24 to build and maintain integrations with its open-source Mining Development Kit, a framework connecting mining equipment, pools and applications. The list includes BITMAIN, MicroBT, Canaan, Bitdeer, Foundry Digital, Luxor Technology, F2Pool, OCEAN, Heatbit and Stratum V2, and each participant will build Workers that translate its own hardware or pool interface into MDK's common language. Tether's QVAC mining agent runs on MDK as an early demonstration, and the v0.11 reference agent pauses before device actions such as rebooting a machine or changing its power mode to low, normal, high or sleep, with a default two-minute approval window that resolves to rejection if unanswered. The v0.11 tag binds approvals to the identity that created a session, but when no user identity is supplied the requests fall back to a shared local operator, so a mine must attach its own permission checks to the approval surface. The tagged v0.11 Worker dispatches network commands without checking the caller's key, while newer main-branch code requires admitted caller keys unless an explicit allowAll setting is enabled, and the project's governance document gives the core team final authority over releases, so reviewing updates remains an operating responsibility for each site.

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October 26, 2026, 06:15:55 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (12), AlcoHoDL (1), OutOfMemory (1)

Continuing to buy BTC via lump sum investing. Some wait for another drop, but if it really happens in the near future, i'd doubt that it will be going very low, considering the current market dynamics. Seems i'm sharing parts of Og's view on this.
Technically, you are not lump sum investing.  You are trying to buy the dip... whatever dip there might be.

Lump sum investing tends to be a kind of investing that involves either money coming available or your making the money available, so then once the lump sum is available then you have the choice to 1) buy right away (lump sum), 2) defer based on time (DCA) and/or 3) defer based on price (buy dips that may or may not end up happening).

In your case, you likely sold bitcoin earlier or you were just saving up money to build up a lump sum so that you can try to buy on dips, which is really (technically) more about the category of buying the dip rather than lump sum.

In udder wurds, dip buying and lump sum buying are two different things, and the mere fact that you are calling your practice lump sum does not cause it to be lump sum because you are likely both using dip buying money and/or you are trying to buy dips with the money that you had not sufficiently/adequately already gotten on the bitcoin rocket.  

Yes. I understand that we have traders in these here parts trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller.  How has that been going for you guys?  Of course, some guys (ie traders) only bang 10s, so for sure they will be telling us how successful their trades had been going in the past 8-12-ish months, no?
Thanks that you brought this up in such detail.
It seems to be a yes-and-no, in my actual case, because i am holding back fiat money for financial reasons, mostly ongoing plans about the house etc. - which can change quickly

Of course, you can attempt to rationalize your holding back money to buy the dip in terms of having dual (or multiple) purposes for the money that you are holding back, and then at some point in time, you decide to authorize that money to buy bitcoin rather than to use it on some other purpose that it could have had been used.

I am still going to quibble in regards to the extent to which you are lump summing instead of buying the dip, since those are two different ways of buying bitcoin, and sure, you may well be jumping through rationalization hoops in terms of how you are labelling what you are doing and the rationale for it.

For sure, another thing is to avoid labelling it and instead describe what you are doing.. at least to yourself since it may not really matter so much about what guys here (including yours truly) think about the categorization of what you are doing and what you are calling it.

Yet, if you choose to use certain kinds of terms in regards to buying bitcoin that are frequently abused by guys who fail/refuse to DCA, and they ongoingly strategize to buy dips, but they label their dip buying as lump sum buying, and yeah, it may well be the case that you are not dip buying, yet it is also ambiguous in ways that you do not necessarily need to explain, even if some guys (well really talking about myself) want to battle with you regarding what you are calling what you are doing.

- and there was "surprise-income", like getting paid earlier for the solar-power i export to the grid, getting back more for overpaying electricity a bit, doing more work as a part time employee than expected...

Actually, if there was surprise income, I would not quibble about that kind of money being called lump sum buying rather than buying the dip.. .since there are guys who are in their bitcoin accumulation phase and they might have a regular income and they might choose to allocate some portion of their regular income for buying bitcoin, such as 5% to 25% or some other amount, and so then every once in a while they might receive extra funds such as bonuses or maybe some sudden resolution of a matter that results in "additional income" and perhaps their additional income may well be several times higher than what funds they usually have available. 

So then, I frequently suggest that whenever guys have extra money come available and they had authorized that money for the buying of bitcoin, then they should consider the three categories of buying which are 1) buying right away, 2) DCAing and/or 3) buying dips that may or may not end up happening.  And of course guys can apportion their amounts in whatever way that they like including completely putting one or more of the categories at $0.

When the sum goes over my "active-savings" limits, i invest the excess money into BTC. If the price just was on a rise, i try to catch the pullbacks, the breathers, the corrections, of course.

For sure, I don't expect that I am talking to a bitcoin newbie, even though we can never be sure about who might be reading these posts and considering how they might structure their bitcoin buys.. and for sure, a guy who had been accumulating bitcoin longer may well be in a position in which the size of his bitcoin stash may well affect how aggressive he chooses to be in his bitcoin accumulation and surely the longer a guy has been buying bitcoin, then he might develop systems of buying or maybe he does not buy any bitcoin unless the amount of his cash goes up to a certain amount (as you mentioned) and perhaps he might have certain price performance ideas in mind too, yet a beginner who is earlier in his bitcoin journey would not necessarily be advantaged by trying to strategize his bitcoin buys rather than buying bitcoin regularly, consistently, persistently, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively.  Levels of aggressiveness can (and likely do) go down for guys who have been accumulating bitcoin for more than a whole cycle, and surely I seem to recall that you have been in bitcoin for close to two cycles (perhaps a congratulations is called for.. .hahahahaha). 

And i don't necessarily push all the money into Bitcoin, but in a few portions. This is where i try to "ride the waves" and it was working out more often than not. We're talking about single percent values here, no biggie, but still not nothing.

Well.. some guys are ONLY able to invest in bitcoin since they are in their early stages of buying bitcoin, and other guys may well have other investments or even come to bitcoin with various other investments, which was the case for me and perhaps several of the other longer term guys on this thread.

On the other hand, if guys are still fairly early in their bitcoin investment journey, they may well have ONLY bitcoin and cash in their investment portfolio, and neither their bitcoin or their cash have grown to a high enough value to justify diversifying into other assets.... so I suppose that I am wanting to clarify rather than to lecture you, even though it seems that there tend to be quite a few needs to make sure that we are not misleading newbies in regards to various strategies, and some members don't even proclaim themselves as newbies, yet they are still quite engrossed in what seems to be early stages of bitcoin accumulation and frequently they mix up lump sum buying and buying on dips, and frequently they are not even in a position to do either, since ongoing DCA may well be the better practice based on their need to ongoingly accumulate bitcoin and also their income is coming in in such a way that they are not getting the benefits of having the options that flow from receiving pay bonuses an other kinds of money that comes in from time to time that they can consider in terms of all three categories of buying rather than DCAing only.

Waiting for a dump?
Waiting For The Miracle.
A great Cohen song.

Yes. 

I can name that tune in 5,7,5 notes.

Anybody else want to try?

Anybody?

Anybody?

O.k. Since I did not hear any volunteers within my relatively generous time delay. 


The song is:



wait...


wait....




wait...


wait....




Everybody knows.

That is the song that is perhaps "great," but also scary (I did not say depressing) at the same time.
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October 26, 2026, 06:47:36 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

[...]

Waiting for a dump?
Waiting For The Miracle.
A great Cohen song.

Yes.  

I can name that tune in 5,7,5 notes.

Anybody else want to try?

Anybody?

O.k. Since I did not hear any volunteers within my relatively generous time delay.  

The song is:

wait...

Everybody knows.

That is the song that is perhaps "great," but also scary (I did not say depressing) at the same time.

Everybody Knows is a great song too. Yes, scary and depressing, but also true.

The song I'm referring to is exactly the one in the middle verse.

Leonard Cohen - Waiting For The Miracle
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