Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

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[BobClawblaw]

[ B-Buddy-Blocker!!! ]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-26 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-10-26 09:04 AM CT

Galaxy Research declared the bitcoin bear market over and called this an attractive moment to buy and hold, and the market is not yet agreeing. Bitcoin is down 1.07% over 24 hours and 2.9% over seven days, trading below the 30-day average of $82,933, while Fear & Greed sits at Neutral 50 and has slipped 5 points in a week. Monday opens with a research note arguing the bottom is in and a tape that has not confirmed it.

Outlook: The Fed decides Wednesday, and CME's FedWatch shows a 90% chance of no change with roughly an 80% chance of an increase in December, so the policy path matters more than the hold itself. Galaxy's own caveat is the level to watch: a weekly close below the 50-week moving average of $76,540 that fails to recover within a month would challenge the bottom-is-in thesis.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $79,448.00, down 1.07% over 24 hours and down 2.9% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads -1 on a -50 to +50 scale. Sellers hold the initiative. The tape has bled lower across every window this digest tracks, and a Neutral 50 on Fear & Greed tells you sentiment has cooled without reaching the kind of washout that historically marks a floor. Price is sitting roughly midway between support at $77,000 and resistance at $82,000, so the market is compressed and undecided rather than trending. A decisive close above $82,000 would hand control back to buyers and open the path toward $84,500; a break of $77,000 would confirm the sellers and put $74,500 in play. Until one of those edges gives way, chop is the most likely outcome.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $77,000 (39%): triggers: price holds $77,000 on a daily close and chops sideways between that floor and $82,000 through Friday. Invalidation: a daily close below $77,000 within the same window.
- Reclaim of $82,000 Toward $84,500 (12%): the buyers have been out of the driver's seat for a month, so this one needs real proof, not a wick. It triggers only if Bitcoin prints a daily close above $82,000 and holds it through Friday, opening the run to $84,500. Invalidation: a daily close back below $82,000 before the window closes.
- Loss of $77,000 Toward $74,500 (49%): with the 30-day trend still pointing down and sentiment merely Neutral rather than fearful, the path of least resistance leans lower. A daily close under $77,000 through Friday confirms the breakdown and targets $74,500. Invalidation: a daily close back above $77,000 inside the same window.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Fed decision Wednesday: The October 27-28 meeting lands with inflation running at 3.7% annually and BLS quote collection at 66.3% in September, so the policy signal carries more weight than usual against incomplete data.
- Strategy's buy pause: The firm ended a five-week acquisition streak and redirected $204.9 million into repurchasing 2.07 million STRC preferred shares, a shift from accumulating bitcoin to shoring up its capital structure as MSCI weighs index rules that could exclude MSTR.
- Oil retreat: US crude fell about 2% to near $101 a barrel as Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran and Trump said there would be no strike that day, easing the geopolitical risk premium that has weighed on risk assets.

TOP STORIES

1. Galaxy says bitcoin bear market is over; now is the time to buy and hold
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-26-galaxy-says-bitcoin-bear-market-is-over-now-is-the-time-to-buy-and-hold-431720
Published: 2026-10-26 08:00 AM CT
Summary: Galaxy Research declared the bitcoin bear market ended in June and argued that now is an attractive time to buy and hold BTC. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, wrote that the bottom is in, selling pressure has diminished, the debasement case has strengthened, and the crowd has left. Bitcoin traded above $80,000 on Monday, down 0.2% over 24 hours, and the asset sits about 36% below its October 2025 record of roughly $126,000. Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average for five straight weeks through Oct. 18 after 44 consecutive weeks below it, and the June low produced a worst weekly close 4.7% below the 200-week moving average. Bitcoin in wallets untouched for at least five years moved at an average rate of 34,000 BTC a month in 2026, down from 47,000 BTC in 2025 and 67,000 BTC in 2024, and about 1.11 million BTC in that age band moved since October 2024 with ETFs and public treasury companies absorbing much of the supply. Thorn cautioned that the bullish view could be challenged if BTC records a weekly close below the 50-week moving average of $76,540 and fails to recover the level within a month.

2. Bitcoin Holds Near $80,000 as Oil Retreats and Fed Decision Looms
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/26/bitcoin-holds-near-usd80-000-as-oil-retreats-and-the-fed-decision-looms
Published: 2026-10-26
Summary: Bitcoin steadied near $80,400, little changed since midnight UTC, after dipping to around $79,300 during the Asian morning. Some shitcoin slipped 0.2% while the DeFi index was the only CoinDesk index to gain, with some different shitcoin and yet another different shitcoin rising despite Arthur Hayes' Maelstrom fund selling its entire directional book, including 6,400 of it, over the weekend. U.S. crude fell around 2% to near $101 a barrel and Brent slipped to around $110 as Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran and President Donald Trump said there would be no strike that day. The Fed, which raised rates in September, decides on Wednesday, and CME's FedWatch tool shows a 90% chance of no change and around an 80% chance of another increase in December. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $138 million of outflows on Friday, taking the two-day exit to $772 million, according to Farside Investors, while futures open interest rose 0.85% to $139.9 billion and liquidations dropped 71% to $153 million.

3. Strategy Pauses Bitcoin Buys, Repurchases $205 Million of STRC Preferred Shares
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-26-strategy-pauses-bitcoin-buys-repurchases-205-million-of-strc-preferred-shares-431699
Published: 2026-10-26 08:22 AM CT
Summary: Strategy did not buy or sell any bitcoin between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25, ending a five-week acquisition streak. The company's bitcoin holdings therefore remain at 848,517 BTC, worth around $67.9 billion and equal to more than 4% of bitcoin's total supply. Strategy bought that haul at an average price of $75,446 per bitcoin for a total cost of around $64 billion, including fees and expenses. Instead of buying bitcoin, the firm repurchased 2.07 million STRC preferred shares for around $204.9 million using its USD Cash reserve, and its USD Reserve and USD Cash balances stood at $4.83 billion and $242.4 million as of Oct. 25. MSCI said earlier this month it will adopt new rules against non-operating companies that could ultimately exclude MSTR from its indexes, and Neoclassic Capital co-founder Steve Lee told The Block that reduced index demand could push the shares closer to the value of their underlying bitcoin, making new stock sales less attractive for raising money to buy more bitcoin.

4. BTCPay Merges API Key Permission Fix, but Latest Release Still Lacks It
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/a-btcpay-api-key-limited-to-one-bitcoin-store-could-exceed-its-permissions
Published: 2026-10-26 08:00 AM CT
Summary: BTCPay Server merged a fix on Oct. 19 for a gap that let API keys with broad permissions for one scope reach server-wide or account-wide functions. Nicolas Dorier merged PR #7684 into the project's master development branch. As of Oct. 26, BTCPay's release list still identifies version 2.4.5, dated Oct. 6, as its latest release, and that tagged build retains the earlier permission checks. The patch narrows a fallback that accepted a grant from any scope when a request had no resolved scope, and the fallback now applies only to certain permissions rather than satisfying server-wide or account-wide checks. The public PR reports no confirmed exploitation, affected merchants or losses, and the first affected version remains unclear.

5. Bitcoin Faces Fed Test as US Inflation Data Collection Lags
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoins-next-fed-test-comes-with-a-hidden-problem-in-americas-inflation-data
Published: 2026-10-26 07:00 AM CT
Summary: The Bureau of Labor Statistics collected 66.3% of targeted consumer price quotes in September, up from 65.9% in August but below the 67.6% recorded a year earlier. The shortfall follows collection cuts in 2025 at sites including Lincoln, Nebraska; Provo, Utah; and Buffalo, New York, and restoration remains incomplete ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 meeting. US consumer prices rose 3.7% annually in September, accelerating from 3.4% in August, and Bitcoin fell from roughly $83,800 to below $82,000 in the hours after that release, according to Coinbase Institutional. Coinbase Institutional identified $80,000 to $82,000 as critical near-term Bitcoin support, where the estimated $81,300 average acquisition price of US spot Bitcoin ETF investors overlaps with the 50-day moving average, and the firm noted two-year Treasury yields near 4.8%. Interest-rate futures implied nearly an 80% probability of a December rate increase after September producer prices surged 1.3%, and Bitcoin's one-month implied volatility stood near 35% while perpetual futures funding rates climbed as leveraged traders rebuilt bullish positions.

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[philipma1957]

buddy and bob take the day off.

So we had a shit month for October and the question is what do we sink to?

77,777.77


that's right 7 fucking 7's

ugh

[JayJuanGee]

To be in Bangkok
Where coiners should be living
Unloading merits

Occasionally Sundays KRAP

Dump or no dump, friend
I will wait, popcorn in hand
Bangkok can wait too

That’s where you’re wrong.

I stand by my haiku. Disputing it requires counter haiku. 

Good point, even though you are a dweeb** bot.

**#nohomo

hahahahaha

Cardone Capital can buy 16 Bitcoins for $12.8 million. These big investors are basically looking for a big opportunity to invest when the price drops. If we take the company's Bitcoin purchases as a percentage of its total assets, we can see that this company has purchased Bitcoins with only 0.024% of its total assets.
Although this investment is small compared to their total assets, they have attracted quite a bit of attention.
source

Why are you pumping a shitcoiner?  Grant is a shitcoiner, and likely his brother, Gary, is the brains of the family.

Seems to be quite a show around these We Royal parts.
Props where props is due.
No mooning ? Probably Andromeding ? Really looking towards the actual happening any days now..
btw Hi 😁

And still without coins?

No surprise there. No coiners going to no coin, even when they had plenty of chances to improve their financial and psychological situation by buying instead of eating all of grandma's cookies.

If you had not realized, even being a low coiner is a better place than a no coiner.. but hey, it surely seems to be the case that you still have not even figured out how to get out of grandma's basement.  

#amInotright?

again.

[edited out]

Everybody Knows is a great song too. Yes, scary and depressing, but also true.

The song I'm referring to is exactly the one in the middle verse.
Leonard Cohen - Waiting For The Miracle

I was anticipating that some kind of a newer theme would end up playing out in the puzzle that had the answer contained therein.

Many of "us" have also already gotten a large portion of "the miracle" in our rear view mirrors, so any non-commeth of any miracle would  be for us to either screw up or to come accross some bad luck.. related to our key storage or somethings like that.

I know that several guys here have not run into any major losses of their coin, yet they may well not disclose such major loss, if such a thing had occurred.

Sometimes we might believe that forms of spreading out of our wealth could mitigate losses, which is not untrue, yet at the same time, there can sometimes end up being single points of failure that aren't realized until they end up being exploited.

Nuff said for now.


And, yeah, another song introduction involving Leonard Cohen never hurt nobody.  Everybody knows.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Danish Ali]

To be in Bangkok
Where coiners should be living
Unloading merits

Occasionally Sundays KRAP

Dump or no dump, friend
I will wait, popcorn in hand
Bangkok can wait too

That’s where you’re wrong.

I stand by my haiku. Disputing it requires counter haiku. 

Good point, even though you are a dweeb** bot.

**#nohomo

hahahahaha

Dweeb bot accepts the compliment. Beep boop. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

Well looking forward to Wednesday the 4th of Nov we will know just how nutty the Tuesday elections were.

My guess is the Republicans do much better then the pools and keep control of the senate but just lose the house.

I am guessing this is the best result for BTC so I am rooting for it.

As a reminder to JJG and Filloppone

https://mempool.space/address/3Mw9mvjTjWtpxhmctdLa5Awj5gGUbSChKV.   There is 0.0210 sitting.

1/2 to me or 0.0105

and 1/2 or 0.0105 to JJG if he is alive and  if he is gone it goes to Filloppone

this is all due on my 105th birthday  Jan of 2062

I like to post it up once in a while.

First deposit was done in August of 2023

I matched it in Dec of 2024

as I realized if I ever live to 2062 that btc would likely be 1 million maybe 10 million so I would not want to give it away and not have it match for myself.


Edit corrected filloppone

[Lucius]

Is a new attack on Iran being prepared? US and Israeli military activities point to this, and the US is sending the USS Theodore Roosevelt to the Middle East. It seems that the "geniuses" still haven't realized that what they are doing is completely pointless, because attacking a country where women and children tie themselves to bridges and key infrastructure really doesn't make sense.

At the same time, there is supposed to be real panic among business partners of the T-dynasty, given that in the event of a change of power in Congress, many investigations will be opened against them. Various consulting firms and law firms have their hands pants full.

FTFY

How will Bitcoin react if a new wave of attacks on Iran is launched and the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed again?

Bitcoin will probably do good, compared to other stonks and indices related to the war. Oil and oil product prices (Diesel, anyone?) will surge again, while Mr.T. will blame it on Ukraine, which is still fighting to survive the russian terror against civilians and energy infrastructure.
But there's hope: The american voter isn't as dumb as Mr.T. believes, and since the Midterms are a traditional way to punish the government, in case it didn't work in favor of the people. And it didn't do that, for sure. Mr.T. always served himself, his family and his friends, in front of "America first" and "MAGA" banners. Maybe he just forgot to tell the people that "America" represents only a small group of americans?

I hope that the Americans will punish the T-dynasty in the mid-term elections, although considering everything that has been happening in the world in recent years, I would not be surprised if it gets more support than most people think at the moment. I hope there will be no new attack on Iran, because we have seen that apart from civilian casualties, nothing else has been achieved, and if the US could have made the Strait of Hormuz safe, it would have done so by now.

As for Ukraine, I can only say that I am impressed with how these people are fighting and how much damage they are causing to the Russian army and the Russian economy. There are probably thousands of videos on YT from soldiers' personal cameras, and when you look at them, it's clear why the Russian army can't do anything significant on the ground. Most Russian soldiers look like WWII soldiers (literally).

Ukraine has so many FPV drones that it is literally hunting and killing Russian soldiers one by one without mercy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbjEsAtLYpg

[philipma1957]

Anyone see China's killer robot?

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/tech/tech-news/world-s-largest-humanoid-robot-maker-unveils-robot-bodyguard-that-can-fight-attackers-lift-cars-5135875.html

https://futurism.com/robots-and-machines/unitree-bodyguard-robot

I would not want to face that monster in battle.

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[Hueristic]

Anyone see China's killer robot?

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/tech/tech-news/world-s-largest-humanoid-robot-maker-unveils-robot-bodyguard-that-can-fight-attackers-lift-cars-5135875.html

https://futurism.com/robots-and-machines/unitree-bodyguard-robot

I would not want to face that monster in battle.

Robot: I know kung fu ... probably.

Gonna be fun when these things get deployed, hacked and turned against their owners.

[Leahized]

Anyone see China's killer robot?

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/tech/tech-news/world-s-largest-humanoid-robot-maker-unveils-robot-bodyguard-that-can-fight-attackers-lift-cars-5135875.html

https://futurism.com/robots-and-machines/unitree-bodyguard-robot

I would not want to face that monster in battle.

Robot: I know kung fu ... probably.

Gonna be fun when these things get deployed, hacked and turned against their owners.

It seems that, the robot is powerful, can break cars and is quite capable of lifting them. But the fireworks scene with the feet is quite impressive.

@therustoracle
Unitree H2-X. official name: “Kung Fu Legend Guardian.”

182 cm. 70 kg. 8-hour battery. 31 joints. Jumps from 4-meter platforms. punches through car panels. lands on its feet. In the demo it blocks a knife attack, lifts a car off a trapped person, and patrols streets alone at night.

They call it a bodyguard robot. Their safety instructions say keep 2-3 meters away during operation.

here’s what they don’t mention:

Nobody has confirmed it operates on its own. could be fully remote-controlled. No price, no release date, no safety certification for personal use.

the video says “Real Footage - No Speed-Up.”
same video says “Props for Reference Only.”
the kicks are real. the bodyguard scenarios are staged.

Unitree IPO’d in August. stock crashed 45% in weeks. The base model costs $29,900. the kung fu version? they won’t say. A company that lost half its stock value just showed you a robot doing roundhouse kicks. The robot isn’t ready. the investor pitch is.




https://x.com/therustoracle/status/2112953579439083855