OT My 1997 AAPL investment would have been great by now, lol, sold in late 2000 after the first 10X. Did not "sit' on it long enough, clearly.
Overall, I am thinking of curtailing my stock "tries" and dropping everything in a couple of big indexes (like VOO or VTI) plus cash/money market.
Phil posted about FIBT (95% stocks, 5% bitcoin), which might be a little low side as far as btc is concerned.
Depends what you sold AAPL to buy, the ideal is to swing from a perfect idea to another is almost impossible.
If we're comparing asset types, BTC is a commodity comparing to equity. Owning the right equity at times will out perform most things, its much easier to buy a sector or index as you say and participate in the advance overall.
Commodity gains are far more irregular, I have a holding that relies on a hot fertilizer market happening but its not here yet and it might take decades to reap the gains. I think it happens due to the weather patterns changing globally in addition to other more predictable changes such as growth in Asia.
I also owned Apple and sold it (too early) but I was much later then the 90's. Apple was unpopular for years as an investment despite high margins and good profits, it was doubted greatly and sold down almost inverse to the SP500.
AAPL started to pay a dividend and I think that was the period share price really grew as the margins did not disappear or reduce as large investors had expected; they have a large loyalty premium like Coke I guess Buffet recognizes that.
Both Apple and MSFT were value stocks, far too cheap now they got a performance premium its hard to decide. You could be there all day trying to decide, best left in a fund alongside its competitors to some extent.
I used win 1.0 in 1990 and assumed MSFT was a buy then because it was transformative. Not that I liked the company or its former CEO but they stole a good idea and monetized it well. So 36 years is the time frame a fair idea can work, not that I had any money to invest but shares and the underlying market are almost separate entities at times imo.
Big sells during that time frame and that has to be true for every other asset that performs.
We can apply that to BTC in that it's good but it doesn't mean the price reflects correctly or anywhere close to consistent predictable gains. I didn't count any of this year as especially negative compared to how harsh BTC can be. We did reset back about five years or so which is enough of a reset to buy then hold going forward and everything after that is gravy.
BTC is eight times higher then covid prices, pricing here is not badly off or poorly rated now. 75k to hold support has BTC positive going forward is my bare expectation.
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