Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Duuudes...

Building a working quantum computer is yet to be accomplished and would take a lot, i mean a lot, a real lot of space and energy.
I saw an interview with an actual QC scientist and he said at the time, nobody has the money to build this yet, and basically it's so complicated and fragile, he doesn't see anything useable to be created within the next 10 years. That was the optimistic scenario, though.
This is way beyond the usual datacenter construction and operation efforts.
QC will probably be the next bubble after AI.

mmw  

I was heavily buying IBM stock the last few years as I considered them the leader in patents and Quantum technology at one point (Google might now be the QT leader).  Cashed out at the top pretty good earlier this year above $300, then it crashed (lucky timing) to $220 so I bought some and sold it a couple weeks later near $300 again. I just recently loaded up at $220 so we'll see if that trading range continues to produce...  

I think the market concern as far as Bitcoin is concerned has changed from quantum computing cracking Bitcoin's encryption to AI discovering a backdoor that has been overlooked for years.

You can only implement a backdoor in software, like wallets and random number generators, and only in closed source or weakly checked open source varieties.
Both isn't the case, regarding Bitcoin. Theoretically, you can "backdoor" the protocol, but this won't go unnoticed by developers, most likely even before testing.
And Bitcoin testing is done in a very sophisticated manner.

The "overlooked for years" argument is therefore closer to zero probability than the inverted count of stars in the visible universe.

EDIT: I saw Hueristic already responded to your post in a less factual way 

[OgNasty]

Duuudes...

Building a working quantum computer is yet to be accomplished and would take a lot, i mean a lot, a real lot of space and energy.
I saw an interview with an actual QC scientist and he said at the time, nobody has the money to build this yet, and basically it's so complicated and fragile, he doesn't see anything useable to be created within the next 10 years. That was the optimistic scenario, though.
This is way beyond the usual datacenter construction and operation efforts.
QC will probably be the next bubble after AI.

mmw  

I was heavily buying IBM stock the last few years as I considered them the leader in patents and Quantum technology at one point (Google might now be the QT leader).  Cashed out at the top pretty good earlier this year above $300, then it crashed (lucky timing) to $220 so I bought some and sold it a couple weeks later near $300 again. I just recently loaded up at $220 so we'll see if that trading range continues to produce...  

I think the market concern as far as Bitcoin is concerned has changed from quantum computing cracking Bitcoin's encryption to AI discovering a backdoor that has been overlooked for years.

You can only implement a backdoor in software, like wallets and random number generators, and only in closed source or weakly checked open source varieties.
Both isn't the case, regarding Bitcoin. Theoretically, you can "backdoor" the protocol, but this won't go unnoticed by developers, most likely even before testing.
And Bitcoin testing is done in a very sophisticated manner.

I would point at the recent php vulnerabilities as evidence that such a thing can and has occurred to software that is much more used and for much longer by far more professional developers than Bitcoin...  Perhaps "backdoor" is triggering some people because they assumed I meant some intentionally placed nefarious code instead of an oversight that has gone unexploited.  I've never been big on semantics personally and assume people understand what I'm trying to say but I definitely leave room with my lack of eloquence for those who want to argue.

"The "overlooked for years" argument is therefore closer to zero probability than the inverted count of stars in the visible universe.

I made no comment about it's likelihood.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Duuudes...

Building a working quantum computer is yet to be accomplished and would take a lot, i mean a lot, a real lot of space and energy.
I saw an interview with an actual QC scientist and he said at the time, nobody has the money to build this yet, and basically it's so complicated and fragile, he doesn't see anything useable to be created within the next 10 years. That was the optimistic scenario, though.
This is way beyond the usual datacenter construction and operation efforts.
QC will probably be the next bubble after AI.

mmw  

I was heavily buying IBM stock the last few years as I considered them the leader in patents and Quantum technology at one point (Google might now be the QT leader).  Cashed out at the top pretty good earlier this year above $300, then it crashed (lucky timing) to $220 so I bought some and sold it a couple weeks later near $300 again. I just recently loaded up at $220 so we'll see if that trading range continues to produce...  

I think the market concern as far as Bitcoin is concerned has changed from quantum computing cracking Bitcoin's encryption to AI discovering a backdoor that has been overlooked for years.

You can only implement a backdoor in software, like wallets and random number generators, and only in closed source or weakly checked open source varieties.
Both isn't the case, regarding Bitcoin. Theoretically, you can "backdoor" the protocol, but this won't go unnoticed by developers, most likely even before testing.
And Bitcoin testing is done in a very sophisticated manner.

I would point at the recent php vulnerabilities as evidence that such a thing can and has occurred to software that is much more used and for much longer by far more professional developers than Bitcoin...  Perhaps "backdoor" is triggering some people because they assumed I meant some intentionally placed nefarious code instead of an oversight that has gone unexploited.  I've never been big on semantics personally and assume people understand what I'm trying to say but I definitely leave room with my lack of eloquence for those who want to argue.

No, no, no.
You're mixing things up here. An exploit (a kind of malice based on using a software vulnerability) can implement various functionalities, up to a backdoor, or even something like injecting code for a bot or miner into runtime code. (EDIT: or does even do great things beyond that, to the OS or firmware code - it's fascinating)
Protocols are not software, these are more like the languages used to communicate between components (drivers, programs, endpoint sockets, channels...). PHP is an interpreter. It runs code and translates it to machine code, executed by a CPU.
An interpreter is a complex piece of software, using many methods of I/O, and each forms attack vectors for multiple vulnerabilities (unless they are checked for at runtime).

For a simpler comparison (i'm said to be bad at those, but anyway* here we go):
You can tell the dimmer in your apartment to reduce the power on the transformer, to turn down the light. But you can't tell the power cabling to do it.
Because it only shifts electrons from A to B. Bitcoin is the cable, and the code is relatively lightweight, compared to PHP, which relies on a lot of libraries carrying possible additional vulnerabilities.
The more complex the software, the more likely that it has flaws.

A blockchain isn't that complex at all, btw.

Though, i was teaching quite a number of hopeless students in the past and made some of them A-grade coders. I'm not bragging, because they did the work. I was only the one opening their eyes on what code does and how to think in its way. Understanding is the path to success, and that's what Hueristic originally tried to tell you, imho.

* Every time i write down or type even small parts of the Wall Observer Anthem by @ibminer, the lyrics go off in my head  

"The "overlooked for years" argument is therefore closer to zero probability than the inverted count of stars in the visible universe.

I made no comment about it's likelihood.

Right. I just thought this is a beautiful way to describe "practically impossible".

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[PrivacyG]

Fair point. Idea only protects holders who are still around and prepared.

It kind of does, but also kind of screws them up.  The way I understand it works, if Howells finds the Hard Drive containing eight thousand Bitcoin after this 'landmine' and his Bitcoin are vulnerable, he would need an over 600 MILLION Dollars collateral to move it.  It would effectively make it impossible for him to ever claim his Bitcoin again, but it would allow a Binance hacker to claim it!

That is unless Howells moves say 1 Bitcoin providing another 1 Bitcoin as collateral, then waits for the 30 days to expire and then can move 2 Bitcoin and provide two more as collateral, wait 30 days.. and so on.  This would take him about 14 months to move all his Bitcoin, but that is only if his eight thousand Bitcoin are split in many small UTXOs!

I am not sure if this 'proof of ownership' is Seed related or Address related yet.  The scenario above may be valid or not based on that.

It would also not protect any body else who lost their Bitcoin and does not find it before the 30 set days expire.  The thief would pretty much now have 'legitimate' ownership over their Bitcoin?

[Biodom]

Fair point. Idea only protects holders who are still around and prepared.

It kind of does, but also kind of screws them up.  The way I understand it works, if Howells finds the Hard Drive containing eight thousand Bitcoin after this 'landmine' and his Bitcoin are vulnerable, he would need an over 600 MILLION Dollars collateral to move it.  It would effectively make it impossible for him to ever claim his Bitcoin again, but it would allow a Binance hacker to claim it!

That is unless Howells moves say 1 Bitcoin providing another 1 Bitcoin as collateral, then waits for the 30 days to expire and then can move 2 Bitcoin and provide two more as collateral, wait 30 days.. and so on.  This would take him about 14 months to move all his Bitcoin, but that is only if his eight thousand Bitcoin are split in many small UTXOs!

I am not sure if this 'proof of ownership' is Seed related or Address related yet.  The scenario above may be valid or not based on that.

It would also not protect any body else who lost their Bitcoin and does not find it before the 30 set days expire.  The thief would pretty much now have 'legitimate' ownership over their Bitcoin?

Exactly...people, who split their bitcoin into multiple wallets would be at a significant advantage, especially if there is significant $ value associated with them a.k.a your scenario where you cannot provide an equal collateral for it.

Perhaps, there would be services where you can borrow the needed bitcoin for a short period of time.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[fillippone]

Observing 75,685@Stamp

WO Gang!
A new report in my Wall Observer Anthology

2016 is also complete! Only one merit that year on the WO!

Wall Observer Anthology 2016: Scaling Arguments, Patient Holders and the Return of the Rally

The year in the thread

Wall Observer's 2016 connected the scaling dispute with the practical question of what to do with one's coins. Richy_T wanted more capacity; AlexGR stressed decentralization and attack risks. Hearn's exit intensified disagreement. Classic's release and Ethereum's rise supplied alternatives, while delayed payments made fees personal.

Spring's advance brought incremental sales, dip buying and sleepless chart-watching. June encouraged extravagant forecasts; July's halving had a quiet immediate aftermath. August concentrated attention on Bitfinex's reported breach, generalized losses and uncertain BFX token terms.

September's waiting gave way to autumn gains and December's approach to $1,000. JimboToronto celebrated during a gig; other participants regretted selling. Fullblockalypse, moon suits and Bitcoinity at Christmas softened the anxiety. Scaling and moderation remained disputed even as optimism returned.

Supporting posts: Richy_T; AlexGR; tomothy; billyjoeallen; gizmoh; nioc.


Five posts with the strongest observed impact

Pre-merit era: any merits were awarded later. Selection remains discretionary, shaped by weights and archive coverage. Quotations measure attention, including disagreement and provocation, not approval. Scores do not establish objective historical importance or market influence.

1. adamstgBit announces his return
Published: 2016-03-23 19:47:09 UTC.
On March 23, adamstgBit delivered an exuberant, punctuation-heavy announcement that he was back. Its brevity makes the attention especially striking: eight distinct participants quoted it in eight posts during the year.
Observed attention: 8 people quoting, 8 quoting posts during the year; 0 merits. Impact score: 100.000/100. After the year: 0 quoting posts from 0 distinct people in the acquired archive.

2. tomothy finds Hearn's exit argument difficult to dismiss
Published: 2016-01-14 21:42:51 UTC.
tomothy linked Mike Hearn's exit statement, described its arguments as difficult to dispute and portrayed Bitcoin as nearing a choice between forking and failure. The linked statement itself was not supplied for inspection.
Observed attention: 6 people quoting, 6 quoting posts during the year; 0 merits. Impact score: 88.562/100. After the year: 0 quoting posts from 0 distinct people in the acquired archive.

3. billyjoeallen connects restricted capacity to falling holdings
Published: 2016-01-28 04:01:02 UTC.
billyjoeallen challenged holders who had remained invested through several higher prices and argued that price could not rise while transaction volume was constrained. He warned of deteriorating holdings unless capacity increased.
Observed attention: 6 people quoting, 6 quoting posts during the year; 0 merits. Impact score: 88.562/100. After the year: 0 quoting posts from 0 distinct people in the acquired archive.

4. billyjoeallen reports an eighty-coin short
Published: 2016-02-12 19:41:09 UTC.
billyjoeallen announced an eighty-coin short and provocatively suggested doubling or quadrupling it if the market kept rising, using a derogatory factional label for opponents. Six distinct participants quoted the post in six posts.
Observed attention: 6 people quoting, 6 quoting posts during the year; 0 merits. Impact score: 88.562/100. After the year: 0 quoting posts from 0 distinct people in the acquired archive.

5. inca assembles a bullish case while anticipating a scaling resolution
Published: 2016-02-13 20:39:27 UTC.
inca combined a favorable chart formation, active altcoins, the approaching halving and possible broader-market turbulence into a bullish outlook. He expected the block-size dispute to resolve through a majority-supported hard fork or a two-megabyte hard fork added to Core's roadmap.
Observed attention: 6 people quoting, 6 quoting posts during the year; 0 merits. Impact score: 88.562/100. After the year: 0 quoting posts from 0 distinct people in the acquired archive.

Thread Soundtrack:

https://youtu.be/4dAWLd6Yxgc

 I do recommend reading this thread while listening to the above soundtrack.

Direct Links to Yearly Posts

	YEAR	WO REPORT	ANTHOLOGY
	2013	REPORT	Falling Knives, Moving Walls, and the Train to Four Figures
	2014	REPORT	Falling Prices, Unbroken Conversation
	2015	REPORT	Waiting for the Bottom, Calling for the Moon
	2016	REPORT	Scaling Arguments, Patient Holders and the Return of the Rally

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

I am not sure if this 'proof of ownership' is Seed related or Address related yet.  The scenario above may be valid or not based on that.

It would also not protect any body else who lost their Bitcoin and does not find it before the 30 set days expire.  The thief would pretty much now have 'legitimate' ownership over their Bitcoin?

address based and you need the private key now if im understanding it correctly

someone who sets this up would monitor the boobytrapped addys for adventurers thiefs opportunists suckers random whitehats yeah thats it to come across

honeypots with a bite. nice, i like it

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-11-07 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-11-07 08:03 PM CT

Spot bitcoin ETFs just erased their entire 2026 gain, and that is the story on this thin Saturday. The funds lost $1.28 billion in net outflows last week, the worst weekly total since late June, leaving them roughly $914.1 million underwater year to date. Bitcoin trades below its 30-day average of $80,186, down 3.4% over seven days and 8.4% over 30 days, while the Fear & Greed Index sits at 28, down 9 points in a week.

Outlook: Tuesday's October CPI print at 8:30 a.m. Eastern is the next scheduled catalyst, and it lands on a market already leaning defensive. Watch whether ETF flows stabilize after last week's broad redemption, since a second consecutive negative week would confirm the 2026 bid has genuinely reversed rather than paused. Weekend liquidity is thin, so treat any Saturday or Sunday move as provisional until Monday's volume arrives.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $75,666.00, down 0.39% over 24 hours and down 3.4% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads -3 on a -50 to +50 scale. Sellers still hold the initiative, and the tape has the look of a market grinding lower rather than capitulating. Sentiment sits at 28, which is Fear but not panic, so the crowd is cautious without being washed out. The levels that matter are clean: $74,000 is the line that has to hold, $77,500 is what a bounce needs to reclaim, and the targets on either side are $72,500 and $79,000. A daily close below $74,000 would hand control firmly to sellers and open the path to $72,500, while a push back through $77,500 would signal that the pullback has run its course. Until one of those breaks, the market is likely to chop between them.

SCENARIOS

- Holding The $74,000 Shelf (45%): triggers: price dips toward $74,000 but buyers step in and the level holds on a daily close, with Fear & Greed staying at or above 20 through Friday. Invalidation: a daily close below $74,000 at any point through Friday.
- Reclaim Of $77,500 Toward $79,000 (21%): triggers: a daily close above $77,500 through Friday, which would confirm the recent slide has stalled and put the $79,000 upside target in play. Invalidation: price fails to close above $77,500 by Friday, or slips back under $74,000 first.
- Breakdown Through $74,000 To $72,500 (34%): triggers: a daily close below $74,000 through Friday, with Fear & Greed sliding toward 20 or lower, opening the downside target of $72,500. Invalidation: a daily close back above $74,000 before Friday's close.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Tuesday CPI as the week's real test: The October inflation report lands Nov. 10, and the labor-cost data in the same release window gives it extra weight for rate expectations, which is the macro channel that matters most to bitcoin right now.
- Exchange-supply data revision: Coin Metrics plans to widen its address coverage, so rising Binance BTC supply figures in the coming weeks may reflect better measurement rather than coins actually arriving on exchanges.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin ETFs Flip Negative for 2026 After $1.28 Billion Outflow Week
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-11-07-bitcoin-etfs-flip-negative-for-2026-after-1-28-billion-outflow-week-worst-since-june-435984
Published: 2026-11-07 10:45 AM CT
Summary: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion in net outflows last week, the worst weekly total since late June and the seventh-largest weekly outflow since the funds launched in January 2024. The funds bled $398.6 million on Monday, $115.6 million on Tuesday, $430.2 million on Thursday and $411.9 million on Friday, with Wednesday's $74.6 million inflow the only positive day. The week erased the funds' 2026 gains, leaving them at about $914.1 million in net outflows year to date, and the total bitcoin held across the 12 funds fell 2.3% to $95.9 billion, equal to roughly 6.3% of Bitcoin's market capitalization. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $403 million of Friday's gross outflows, about 88% of the day's total, while Fidelity's FBTC took in $42.8 million. Spot ETFs of some shitcoin lost $365.3 million in their sixth straight negative week, ETFs of some different shitcoin shed $26.3 million in a fifth straight outflow week and the three ETFs of yet another different shitcoin lost $15.6 million over the same five-week stretch, with Bitcoin trading near $75,880 on Saturday morning.

2. Falling Unit Labor Costs Offer Bitcoin a Possible Rates Offset
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/higher-wages-dont-have-to-mean-higher-inflation-that-could-matter-for-bitcoin
Published: 2026-11-07 12:15 PM CT
Summary: US nonfarm business unit labor costs fell 0.7% at an annualized rate in the third quarter as productivity rose 3.6% and hourly compensation rose 2.9%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' preliminary November 5 release. Unit labor costs still stood 2.4% higher than a year earlier, so the quarterly relief does not settle the inflation outlook. October payrolls added 165,000 jobs and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% on the year, but the two reports cover different periods and measures. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 in a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring a quarter-point increase, and the statement called productivity strong while calling inflation elevated. Bitcoin traded near $75,672, down 0.29% over 24 hours, down 2.47% over seven days and down 7.56% over 30 days, and a sustained decline in inflation pressure could ease a rates headwind for the asset if it brings lower expected rates and funding costs.

3. Coin Metrics Warns Binance BTC Supply Reading Can Rise Without New Deposits
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-traders-could-mistake-this-binance-data-change-for-a-rush-to-sell
Published: 2026-11-07 11:10 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin traded near $76,000 on Nov. 7 ahead of Tuesday's US inflation report, with spot selling on Binance and Coinbase outpacing buying according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. Coin Metrics said in a Nov. 4 notice that it planned to expand exchange-address coverage and expected significant increases in some hourly and daily supply readings, particularly Binance BTC measures in native units and dollars. The provider said the wider coverage would not correspond to any change in actual exchange holdings, and the notice did not quantify the expected adjustment. Coin Metrics defines exchange supply as balances in identified hot and cold wallets at the end of an interval, and the methodology warns that undiscovered addresses can leave the measure below actual holdings. Deposits record transfers to identified exchange addresses and do not prove coins were sold, while trade records with a known sell taker identify aggressive selling that removes a resting bid. October CPI is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and traders can compare flows, executed spot trades and the price response to judge whether buyers are absorbing sell pressure.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.11 | DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017

[xhomerx10]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-11-07 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-11-07 08:03 PM CT

~snip

1. Bitcoin ETFs Flip Negative for 2026 After $1.28 Billion Outflow Week
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-11-07-bitcoin-etfs-flip-negative-for-2026-after-1-28-billion-outflow-week-worst-since-june-435984
Published: 2026-11-07 10:45 AM CT
Summary: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion in net outflows last week, the worst weekly total since late June and the seventh-largest weekly outflow since the funds launched in January 2024. The funds bled $398.6 million on Monday, $115.6 million on Tuesday, $430.2 million on Thursday and $411.9 million on Friday, with Wednesday's $74.6 million inflow the only positive day. The week erased the funds' 2026 gains, leaving them at about $914.1 million in net outflows year to date, and the total bitcoin held across the 12 funds fell 2.3% to $95.9 billion, equal to roughly 6.3% of Bitcoin's market capitalization. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $403 million of Friday's gross outflows, about 88% of the day's total, while Fidelity's FBTC took in $42.8 million. Spot ETFs of some shitcoin lost $365.3 million in their sixth straight negative week, ETFs of some different shitcoin shed $26.3 million in a fifth straight outflow week and the three ETFs of yet another different shitcoin lost $15.6 million over the same five-week stretch, with Bitcoin trading near $75,880 on Saturday morning.

~also snip


BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.11 | DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017

By George, she’s got it! I think she’s got it!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com