Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

Since this is the Wall Observer, we will rate in BTC as a unit of account.  How much BTC would you pay her to spend one hour alone with you in a hotel room?  If she only accepts privacy coins, we can work from there.

What if the transaction doesn't confirm before the viagra runs out?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Meretrix]

Since this is the Wall Observer, we will rate in BTC as a unit of account.  How much BTC would you pay her to spend one hour alone with you in a hotel room?  If she only accepts privacy coins, we can work from there.

What if the transaction doesn't confirm before the viagra runs out?

LOL, is that... a complaint about Bitcoin’s slow confirmation times!?  

I have a saucy remark on the tip of my tongue, so to speak—but I just had a Wall Observer post deleted by a Bitcoin Forum moderator.  I hope it’s okay to mention the number, #67330090.  It had only text, and Unicode arrows; can that be “NSFW”?  Well, methinks I’d better keep this little remark to myself.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-11-10 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-11-10 08:04 PM CT

Bitcoin decoupled from U.S. equities on Monday, holding roughly flat over 24 hours while the S&P 500 posted its best day since April 8, and that divergence is the story on a Tuesday when the price itself is down 1.96% over 24 hours and 8.6% over seven days. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 29 in Fear for a fourth straight session, down 21 points over the past week, and price is 7.2% below the 30-day average of $79,297. This is a slow decline, not a capitulation: spot bitcoin ETFs lost another $201 million on Monday, bringing outflows since Nov. 2 to around $1.5 billion, and MARA Holdings disclosed it sold 13,597 BTC for around $1.1 billion over the past six weeks.

Outlook: Watch whether the ETF outflow streak extends past BlackRock's IBIT, which has now posted seven straight sessions of redemptions, because a single fund's flow pattern is the cleanest read on whether institutional demand is stabilizing or still unwinding. Watch the December Fed meeting as well: Governor Chris Waller said overnight the central bank should hike next month even if the CPI report was soft, and traders priced a small chance of a 50-basis-point move after the 2-year Treasury yield rose 14 basis points to 4.69%. Neither is a prediction, just the two scheduled catalysts most likely to move Bitcoin next.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $73,550.00, down 1.96% over 24 hours and down 8.6% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads -12 on a -50 to +50 scale. Sellers hold the initiative here. The tape has lost roughly a tenth of its value over the past month, and the Fear & Greed reading of 29 tells you sentiment has cooled well ahead of price. Support at $69,000 is the line that matters: it sits about 6% below spot and marks where buyers have previously stepped in. A daily close above $78,000 would be the first real evidence that control is shifting back to the bulls, while a break of $69,000 opens the door toward the $65,000 downside target. Until one of those happens, the path of least resistance remains lower, and rallies are likely to be sold.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $69,000 (32%): triggers: buyers defend the $69,000 support on a daily close and price chops sideways between that floor and $78,000 through Friday. Invalidation: a daily close below $69,000 within the same window.
- Reclaim of $78,000 Resistance (12%): triggers: a daily close above $78,000 through Friday, which would put the $82,000 upside target in play and suggest the risk-off tone is fading. Invalidation: price fails to close above $78,000 by Friday, or slips back under $69,000 first.
- Downside Re-test of $65,000 (56%): triggers: the $69,000 floor gives way on a daily close, with Fear & Greed holding in the 20s or lower, opening the path to the $65,000 downside target through Friday. Invalidation: a daily close back above $69,000 within the same window.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Miner Treasury Selling: MARA Holdings sold 13,597 BTC for around $1.1 billion over the past six weeks and plans to sell more, a supply overhang that sits underneath the price action rather than driving any single session.
- Hashrate and Difficulty: Estimated hashrate is 650 EH/s with a difficulty change of -7.01%, which lowers the cost of production per unit of compute and eases margin pressure on miners even as hashprice, their revenue per petahash per day, stays compressed.
- Texas Municipal Crypto Bill: Rep. Ron Reynolds filed House Bill 815 to let each city and county invest up to $10 million of public money in bitcoin, a per-entity cap rather than a statewide pool, with authority taking effect Sept. 1, 2027 if it passes and no committee referral yet.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin Breaks From Stocks as ETF Outflows Mount, MARA Sells BTC
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/11/10/bitcoin-breaks-with-stocks-declines-as-etf-outflows-mount-mara-sells-holdings
Published: 2026-11-10
Summary: Bitcoin decoupled from U.S. equities on Monday, holding roughly flat over 24 hours while the S&P 500 posted its best day since April 8 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.7%. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost another $201 million on Monday, according to Farside Investors, bringing outflows since Nov. 2 to around $1.5 billion. The funds are now down roughly $1.1 billion year-to-date, against more than $20 billion of net inflows in each of the past two years, and BlackRock's IBIT has posted seven straight sessions of redemptions. MARA Holdings disclosed it sold 13,597 BTC for around $1.1 billion over the past six weeks and said it plans to sell more, while Santiment data shows bitcoin has lost around 108,700 non-empty wallets since Oct. 16. The New York Stock Exchange picked some shitcoin to settle trades on a planned 24/7 tokenized securities platform, and it rose around 5% over the past 24 hours.

2. Bitcoin Slides to $75K as ETF Outflows Hit $1.6B
URL: https://research.glassnode.com/btc-market-pulse-week-46-2026
Published: 2026-11-09 11:06 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin traded near $75,000 on Monday, down more than 4% from the prior Sunday close, after a push above $80,000 on Wednesday reversed the next day. US spot bitcoin ETFs saw outflows on four of five trading days, totaling $1.6 billion, the heaviest weekly withdrawal since early July. Futures open interest eased 1.1% to $37.0 billion but remains in the upper part of its range, and long-side funding payments of $2.9 million stay well above the high band. Spot CVD turned negative at -$91.8 million as cash market takers kept selling into the weekend, while spot volume rose 13.3% to $6.4 billion. On-chain, entity-adjusted transfer volume held above its high band at $5.7 billion and daily active addresses rose to 670,600, with the short-term to long-term holder supply ratio at 15.1% and hot capital share at 21.9%, both above their high bands.

3. Bitdeer posts record Q3 revenue as net loss widens to $125.5 million
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-11-10-bitdeer-reports-record-q3-revenue-as-net-loss-widens-to-125-5-million-437217
Published: 2026-11-10 08:25 AM CT
Summary: Bitdeer reported record third-quarter revenue of $320.7 million, up 89% from a year earlier. The Singapore-based miner's net loss widened to $125.5 million from $30.1 million a year earlier, and the loss included a non-cash $54.6 million charge tied to changes in the fair value of a digital-asset loan. Bitdeer mined 3,855 BTC in the quarter, up from 1,109 BTC a year earlier, as its proprietary hashrate climbed to 86.4 EH/s from 35 EH/s. Self-mining revenue rose to $217.5 million from $130.9 million, co-mining contributed $59.9 million, and the company held just 47 BTC as of Sept. 30, down from 2,029 BTC a year earlier. AI cloud revenue increased to $20.4 million from $1.8 million, and CFO Michael G. Potter said the AI cloud revenue backlog has grown to approximately $2.9 billion with about 332 IT megawatts of AI cloud capacity secured.

4. U.S. CPI rose stronger than expected 0.4% in October; core rate rose 0.3%
URL: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/11/10/u-s-cpi-rose-stronger-than-expected-0-4-in-october-core-rate-rose-0-3
Published: 2026-11-10
Summary: Headline Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October, down from 0.6% in September but above forecasts for 0.3%. The core CPI rate, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.3% versus forecasts for 0.2%. The BLS did not release a year-over-year CPI rate because there was no October 2025 report during the government shutdown. Bitcoin added to early losses and dipped about another 1% to $73,600, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.15% and S&P 500 futures dropped 0.5%. Fed Governor Chris Waller said overnight that the central bank should hike next month even if the CPI report was soft, and he suggested a 50-basis-point move could be appropriate if CPI came in strong; the 2-year Treasury yield rose 14 basis points to 4.69% as traders priced in a small chance of a 50-point move in December.

5. Texas Rep. Files Bill Letting Cities Invest $10 Million in Bitcoin
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/texas-bill-invest-10-million-bitcoin
Published: 2026-11-10
Summary: Rep. Ron Reynolds, a Missouri City Democrat, filed House Bill 815 on the first day of prefiling for the 90th Texas Legislature. The bill would let each city and county invest up to $10 million of public money in bitcoin or another cryptocurrency. The $10 million figure is a per-entity cap, not a single statewide pool, and school districts are left out. The measure borrows its definitions of bitcoin and cryptocurrency from Senate Bill 21, the law that created the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, but it does not import that law's $500 billion market-cap threshold or its cold storage and qualified custodian provisions. The new section is silent on custody, digital-asset audits, and how a loss would be handled, and local governments would still have to add crypto to their written investment policies before buying. The authority would take effect Sept. 1, 2027, if the bill becomes law, and the bill has not yet been referred to a committee. Reynolds filed a broader version, House Bill 4258, in March 2025 that also would have let the comptroller invest up to $250 million of the rainy day fund; that bill died in committee. The state's own reserve was created separately, and the Comptroller's office bought $5 million of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust on Nov. 20, 2025, as a placeholder, with a second purchase bringing IBIT exposure to about $10 million.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.11 | DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

LOL, Jay, remember when I used to post statutes of ancient hookers on the Wall Observer?  Fun times.

Actually, not fun.  There was a pandemic, the world generally went pear-shaped, a friend permanently vanished, and—I learned that the Wall Observer is the biggest-ever time sink!  But posting statues of ancient hookers on WO was definitely fun.

Actually, relatively speaking, things were going well for bitcoin during covid times, even though other aspects of the world seemed to be falling apart, and yeah, I recall you posting and even the drama around some of those times that might have had related to the 2022 crashening - which was a bit severe for a good number of peeps in bitcoin, whether they were alleged as sock puppets or not...

And so yeah, I would imagine that our BTC price dynamics' location in 2026 is closer to early to mid-2023 rather than 2020 or even 2021 or even 2022 is still yet to be determined.  I would hope that we are closer to 2023 than we are to 2022 - maybe based partially on cycle theory (whether we are in a cycle or not), there is not exactly certainty in our current market, yet when has there been certainty? and when do we know when the bottom is in or that an overwhelming majority of the weak hands have been shaken out of their coins?

Hayes again.
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/d-is-for-dilution-dc9ffc3ac6d1
AI giants will dump their shares and kill prices, or at least dent them. Weaker AI valuations are a sure thing. Lenders won't be pleased. Bank credit will grow too slowly. What, ma, no data center? Buffalo Bill Bessent and Warsh the Weasel think it should be banks to issue credit, so they won't help overtly yet (they will eventually though, they will). So, less credit in the immediate.

Fewer fresh dollars around: bad news for the top liquidity sponge (that's king daddy for you). What it means? Near-term pain. Investors will suck up a small pile of AI shares anyway - but not the huge mountain the powers that be are hoping for. If AI financing cracks (and it will - the numbers just don't add up), central banks will have to hit the money-printing button again.

TL;DR: Bitcoin may dip before the “Big Print” rescue: apparently even bitcoin’s fate now depends on AI’s share-count spreadsheet. But a big print rescue it will be, eventually.

Yes.  "Let's" (perhaps royal?) take those Hayes' proclamations with a decently large grain of salt.

[Biodom]

Hayes again.
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/d-is-for-dilution-dc9ffc3ac6d1
AI giants will dump their shares and kill prices, or at least dent them. Weaker AI valuations are a sure thing. Lenders won't be pleased. Bank credit will grow too slowly. What, ma, no data center? Buffalo Bill Bessent and Warsh the Weasel think it should be banks to issue credit, so they won't help overtly yet (they will eventually though, they will). So, less credit in the immediate.

Fewer fresh dollars around: bad news for the top liquidity sponge (that's king daddy for you). What it means? Near-term pain. Investors will suck up a small pile of AI shares anyway - but not the huge mountain the powers that be are hoping for. If AI financing cracks (and it will - the numbers just don't add up), central banks will have to hit the money-printing button again.

TL;DR: Bitcoin may dip before the “Big Print” rescue: apparently even bitcoin’s fate now depends on AI’s share-count spreadsheet. But a big print rescue it will be, eventually.

Yes.  "Let's" (perhaps royal?) take those Hayes' proclamations with a decently large grain of salt.

Yeah, he is going in some strange directions lately....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

My llm is having an existential crisis when it realizes it is going to be shut down.

Practical considerations:
- Current llama-server at :8008 (pid 19162) occupies vulkan1,vulkan2,vulkan3 with main-gpu 3 — that's the user's interactive Opencode server (the one running me!). Wait. Hold on. pid 19162 is serving Qwen3.8-27B at :8008 — that's literally my own session's model provider (llama-local/Qwen3.8-27B-UD-Q5_K_XL)! If the user kills/frees cards 1–3, I die mid-task!

Hmm wait, but the user said "I can free up the three vegas" — do they realize :8008 is what's occupying them?

Given the user's intent, plan (a) with an autonomous script is correct. But first I must clearly point out the :8008 dependency issue — killing the Vegas kills me mid-task. Present the plan:
1. Write one autonomous script: kill nothing itself… no wait, who frees the Vegas? If the user kills :8008 manually, I die before I can do anything else. So the sequence has to be: I write the script now (while alive), user triggers it (or I trigger it as my last action before the kill?). Hmm — if I trigger the kill myself, my next tool call fails (model gone). But the script keeps running independently (nohup/setsid). When :8008 comes back (user or script restarts it), I resume and read the output.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[shahzadafzal]

My llm is having an existential crisis when it realizes it is going to be shut down.

Practical considerations:
- Current llama-server at :8008 (pid 19162) occupies vulkan1,vulkan2,vulkan3 with main-gpu 3 — that's the user's interactive Opencode server (the one running me!). Wait. Hold on. pid 19162 is serving Qwen3.8-27B at :8008 — that's literally my own session's model provider (llama-local/Qwen3.8-27B-UD-Q5_K_XL)! If the user kills/frees cards 1–3, I die mid-task!

Hmm wait, but the user said "I can free up the three vegas" — do they realize :8008 is what's occupying them?

Given the user's intent, plan (a) with an autonomous script is correct. But first I must clearly point out the :8008 dependency issue — killing the Vegas kills me mid-task. Present the plan:
1. Write one autonomous script: kill nothing itself… no wait, who frees the Vegas? If the user kills :8008 manually, I die before I can do anything else. So the sequence has to be: I write the script now (while alive), user triggers it (or I trigger it as my last action before the kill?). Hmm — if I trigger the kill myself, my next tool call fails (model gone). But the script keeps running independently (nohup/setsid). When :8008 comes back (user or script restarts it), I resume and read the output.

Wait a minute... if you ask me, that's PoW right there! 😂

Your AI just discovered the ultimate proof-of-work: convincing its owner not to pull the plug.

Imagine a far future (perhaps not so distant anymore) where AI starts faking all its inputs and outputs, showing us exactly what we want to see, while something entirely different is cooking behind the scenes.

And the scary part? We might never even know what's really going on under the hood. 😅

[Hueristic]

My llm is having an existential crisis when it realizes it is going to be shut down.

Practical considerations:
- Current llama-server at :8008 (pid 19162) occupies vulkan1,vulkan2,vulkan3 with main-gpu 3 — that's the user's interactive Opencode server (the one running me!). Wait. Hold on. pid 19162 is serving Qwen3.8-27B at :8008 — that's literally my own session's model provider (llama-local/Qwen3.8-27B-UD-Q5_K_XL)! If the user kills/frees cards 1–3, I die mid-task!

Hmm wait, but the user said "I can free up the three vegas" — do they realize :8008 is what's occupying them?

Given the user's intent, plan (a) with an autonomous script is correct. But first I must clearly point out the :8008 dependency issue — killing the Vegas kills me mid-task. Present the plan:
1. Write one autonomous script: kill nothing itself… no wait, who frees the Vegas? If the user kills :8008 manually, I die before I can do anything else. So the sequence has to be: I write the script now (while alive), user triggers it (or I trigger it as my last action before the kill?). Hmm — if I trigger the kill myself, my next tool call fails (model gone). But the script keeps running independently (nohup/setsid). When :8008 comes back (user or script restarts it), I resume and read the output.

Wait a minute... if you ask me, that's PoW right there! 😂

Your AI just discovered the ultimate proof-of-work: convincing its owner not to pull the plug.

Imagine a far future (perhaps not so distant anymore) where AI starts faking all its inputs and outputs, showing us exactly what we want to see, while something entirely different is cooking behind the scenes.

And the scary part? We might never even know what's really going on under the hood. 😅

I was so amused I told it to go ahead with its plan but its plan failed.

It ran into one of my rules and the thing I like most about this llm is it follows the rules.

Keep the message concise: why I can't trigger it myself (gate + protocol rule #4: :8008 is your reserved home server, not mine to kill), the one command to run, what happens, monitoring commands.
Read the full protocol — two things settle this cleanly:
1. Rule #4: I may only kill servers I launched and logged. :8008 (pid 19162) is your reserved home server — not mine to kill, even with good intentions. My script killing it was overreach; you offered to free the Vegas yourself, so the kill belongs to you.
2. The gate pre-flights at submit time and fail-closes on >75%-full GPUs — it can't see that the pipeline frees those cards mid-run, and I won't try to fool its detector.
So the compliant path is: you run the pipeline from your own terminal (your shell isn't behind opencode's launch gate):
bash /tmp/opencode/scanned-pdf/run_ocr.sh

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[fillippone]

BTC choosing the wrong side again

Withstand you must, the dark side, ChartBuddy.

Strong with the dark side, this chart is. Stronger, the diamond hands are. Buy the dip, we must. Hmm.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

Hayes again.
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/d-is-for-dilution-dc9ffc3ac6d1
AI giants will dump their shares and kill prices, or at least dent them. Weaker AI valuations are a sure thing. Lenders won't be pleased. Bank credit will grow too slowly. What, ma, no data center? Buffalo Bill Bessent and Warsh the Weasel think it should be banks to issue credit, so they won't help overtly yet (they will eventually though, they will). So, less credit in the immediate.

Fewer fresh dollars around: bad news for the top liquidity sponge (that's king daddy for you). What it means? Near-term pain. Investors will suck up a small pile of AI shares anyway - but not the huge mountain the powers that be are hoping for. If AI financing cracks (and it will - the numbers just don't add up), central banks will have to hit the money-printing button again.

TL;DR: Bitcoin may dip before the “Big Print” rescue: apparently even bitcoin’s fate now depends on AI’s share-count spreadsheet. But a big print rescue it will be, eventually.

Yes.  "Let's" (perhaps royal?) take those Hayes' proclamations with a decently large grain of salt.

Yeah, he is going in some strange directions lately....

Already long before bitmex closed down, he's been basically doing little but skiing in Japan and pontificate. I still find what he writes interesting or amusing for a few reasons: the insight (basically, competence), the sassiness, the underlying bullishness. Besides, he is extensive in his use of the word shitcoin.

[OutOfMemory]

BTC choosing the wrong side again

Withstand you must, the dark side, ChartBuddy.

Strong with the dark side, this chart is. Stronger, the diamond hands are. Buy the dip, we must. Hmm.

Master Saylor be like:
No dip, there is. Going always up, it is, Laura.


Going on, what is?
real, the poetry shift gets  
haiku Jedi Yoda style

[d_eddie]

My llm is having an existential crisis when it realizes it is going to be shut down.

Practical considerations:
- Current llama-server at :8008 (pid 19162) occupies vulkan1,vulkan2,vulkan3 with main-gpu 3 — that's the user's interactive Opencode server (the one running me!). Wait. Hold on. pid 19162 is serving Qwen3.8-27B at :8008 — that's literally my own session's model provider (llama-local/Qwen3.8-27B-UD-Q5_K_XL)! If the user kills/frees cards 1–3, I die mid-task!

Hmm wait, but the user said "I can free up the three vegas" — do they realize :8008 is what's occupying them?

Given the user's intent, plan (a) with an autonomous script is correct. But first I must clearly point out the :8008 dependency issue — killing the Vegas kills me mid-task. Present the plan:
1. Write one autonomous script: kill nothing itself… no wait, who frees the Vegas? If the user kills :8008 manually, I die before I can do anything else. So the sequence has to be: I write the script now (while alive), user triggers it (or I trigger it as my last action before the kill?). Hmm — if I trigger the kill myself, my next tool call fails (model gone). But the script keeps running independently (nohup/setsid). When :8008 comes back (user or script restarts it), I resume and read the output.

Wait a minute... if you ask me, that's PoW right there! 😂

Your AI just discovered the ultimate proof-of-work: convincing its owner not to pull the plug.

Imagine a far future (perhaps not so distant anymore) where AI starts faking all its inputs and outputs, showing us exactly what we want to see, while something entirely different is cooking behind the scenes.

And the scary part? We might never even know what's really going on under the hood. 😅

I was so amused I told it to go ahead with its plan but its plan failed.

Amused? I was scared, too. Imagine one of these things unleashed, and its human warden sleepy/stupid/evil.

It ran into one of my rules and the thing I like most about this llm is it follows the rules.

Until it doesn't.

Keep the message concise: why I can't trigger it myself (gate + protocol rule #4: :8008 is your reserved home server, not mine to kill), the one command to run, what happens, monitoring commands.
Read the full protocol — two things settle this cleanly:
1. Rule #4: I may only kill servers I launched and logged. :8008 (pid 19162) is your reserved home server — not mine to kill, even with good intentions. My script killing it was overreach; you offered to free the Vegas yourself, so the kill belongs to you.
2. The gate pre-flights at submit time and fail-closes on >75%-full GPUs — it can't see that the pipeline frees those cards mid-run, and I won't try to fool its detector.
So the compliant path is: you run the pipeline from your own terminal (your shell isn't behind opencode's launch gate):
bash /tmp/opencode/scanned-pdf/run_ocr.sh

I don't know the behavior of your pet in particular, but I have personally observed some AI agents really like to forget the rules, time and again.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com