Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-11-13 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-11-13 08:04 PM CT

The Fear & Greed Index sits at 13 this Friday, down 15 points over the past week and back in Extreme Fear territory, as Bitcoin falls 3.79% over 24 hours and 10.0% over seven days. The move has taken price to its lowest level in 12 weeks, roughly 12.6% below the 30-day average of $78,066, and the selling is broad rather than confined to one venue. Two 2010-era addresses waking up after 16 years and moving about 100 BTC is the curiosity of the morning, but the dominant story is the macro and flow backdrop: Fed rate fears plus six straight sessions of spot ETF net outflows totaling about $1.49 billion.

Outlook: The next scheduled catalyst is the December 8-9 Fed meeting, where futures currently price a 91.9% chance of a quarter-point hike and an 8.1% chance of a half-point move, so the core CPI print at 0.3% is the number that decides which of those lands. Watch whether the six-session ETF outflow streak extends or breaks, since that flow has been the clearest tell on institutional demand this month. On the mining side, the difficulty change of -8.99% is worth tracking because it lifts hashprice, miners' revenue per unit of hashrate, which may ease some of the selling pressure that comes from stressed operators.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $68,214.00, down 3.79% over 24 hours and down 10.0% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads +6 on a -50 to +50 scale, which runs against the week's move: the composite blends price change, sentiment and spot premium, so it can tilt one way while realised price runs the other, and it does not override what the price did. Sellers hold the initiative, and the tape has not yet produced the kind of exhaustion that ends a slide like this one. The computed levels frame the argument cleanly: $63,500 is the line that separates a controlled pullback from a deeper unwind toward $59,000, while $73,000 is where the market would have to prove the weakness was temporary and open the path to $77,500. The tension between the +6 momentum-sentiment composite and the -10.0% week resolves the same way either way you slice it: sentiment is stabilizing faster than price, which is typical of a market that has stopped panicking but not yet started buying. What flips control is a decisive reclaim of $73,000 on real volume, not a bounce; what confirms the sellers is a daily close below $63,500. Extreme Fear at 13 argues that positioning is already defensive, so the marginal seller is more likely a forced one than a discretionary one.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $63,500 (32%): triggers: price holds $63,500 on a daily close through Friday while Fear & Greed stays at or below 20, signalling that sellers have run out of fresh supply at this shelf. Invalidation: a daily close below $63,500 within five trading days.
- Reclaim of $73,000 Toward $77,500 (12%): the market needs a catalyst, not just a drift, so watch for a daily close above $73,000 accompanied by Fear & Greed lifting off 13 into the 25-35 band within five trading days; that combination would mark a genuine shift in positioning rather than a short squeeze. Invalidation: price fails to close above $73,000 at any point within five trading days, or closes back below it after tagging it.
- Downside Re-test of $59,000 (56%): with the week down 10.0% and sentiment pinned at Extreme Fear, the path of least resistance still points lower, and a daily close below $63,500 within five trading days would confirm the breakdown and open $59,000 as the next computed objective. Invalidation: price closes any day above $63,500 within five trading days without first printing a close below it.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Fed policy path: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said inflation has spread into services and medical costs and he does not feel the path back to 2% is on track, while Governor Christopher Waller backs at least a 25 basis point hike at the December 8-9 meeting, and the 0.3% core CPI print has futures pricing a 91.9% chance of a quarter-point move.
- ETF outflow streak: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged six consecutive sessions of net outflows totaling about $1.49 billion between November 5 and November 12, a running total rather than a single-week figure, even as the funds still hold roughly $55.5 billion in cumulative net inflows.
- Mining economics: The estimated hashrate sits at 650.0 EH/s with a difficulty change of -8.99%, which raises hashprice, miners' revenue per petahash per day, and may soften the economics that have pressured some operators into selling.

TOP STORIES

1. Two 2010 Bitcoin Addresses Move 100 BTC After 16 Years Dormant
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-11-13-from-6-to-6-9-million-two-dormant-bitcoin-addresses-wake-up-to-move-100-btc-after-more-than-16-years-439698
Published: 2026-11-13 07:33 AM CT
Summary: Two Bitcoin addresses that had sat untouched for more than 16 years each sent roughly 50 BTC on Friday morning, moving about 100 BTC worth approximately $6.89 million. The first address sent nearly 50 BTC to one address and 0.01 BTC to another at 4:08 a.m. UTC, and the second address sent nearly 49 BTC to one address and 1 BTC to another just over two minutes later. Both sets of coins came from block rewards mined in September 2010, when each 50 BTC reward was worth about $3. By 4:48 a.m. UTC, about 20 BTC from the first transfer and 39 BTC from the second had been consolidated at a new bc1qj5 address, with 30 BTC at another new address, 10 BTC at a third and 1 BTC at a fourth. The wallets' owners, the reason for the transfers and whether the two original outputs shared an owner all remain unknown, and the coins have gained more than 1.15 million times in value since 2010.

2. Bitcoin Falls to $68,500, Lowest in 12 Weeks, as Fed Rate Fears and ETF Outflows Mount
URL: https://decrypt.co/383231/bitcoin-hits-12-week-low-fed-rate-fears-undo-summer-rally
Published: 2026-11-13 11:22 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin dropped to roughly $68,500 on Friday, its lowest price in 12 weeks, down about 4.5% over 24 hours and 9.5% on the week. Some shitcoin traded near $1,925 and some different shitcoin slipped below $80 as selling spread across major cryptocurrencies. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said inflation has spread beyond energy and tariffs into services and medical costs, and he stated he does not feel the path back to 2% is on track. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he supports raising rates at least 25 basis points at the December 8-9 meeting, and he set a condition for a larger move if core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher; the report then showed core CPI at exactly 0.3%, and futures markets priced a 91.9% chance of a quarter-point hike and an 8.1% chance of a half-point hike. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged six straight sessions of net outflows totaling about $1.49 billion between November 5 and November 12, though the funds still hold roughly $55.5 billion in cumulative net inflows. Bitcoin's daily RSI sits at 25.4, an oversold reading, while the ADX at 25.3 confirms an established downtrend; immediate support is around $67,650, with deeper support near $64,000, and Bitcoin must reclaim $70,815 and $72,775 before testing resistance between $74,355 and $75,937.

3. Treasury Used Euros, Not Dollars, for July Yen Rescue
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/yen-intervention-euros-bitcoin-liquidity
Published: 2026-11-13 09:30 AM CT
Summary: The New York Fed confirmed in a November 12 report that the Treasury financed its July 31 yen intervention with euros from the Exchange Stabilization Fund. The New York Fed bought 79.4 billion yen in the spot market against ESF euro sales, acting as Treasury's fiscal agent, and the Federal Reserve itself did not intervene in foreign-exchange markets during the third quarter. Because the trade swapped one reserve currency for another, it supplies no evidence of new Fed dollars reaching Bitcoin markets. Central-bank dollar swap balances fell from $250 million on June 30 to $207 million on September 30, and the Bank of Japan had none outstanding at quarter-end. Bitcoin traded near $68,288, down 3.61% over 24 hours, and the article ties potential pressure to leverage rather than the intervention itself: a stronger yen makes unhedged yen borrowing costlier to repay, and margin calls could force leveraged investors to raise cash or cut positions.

4. JPMorgan Raises Strategy Stake 36% and BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Position
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-11-13-jpmorgan-reports-36-rise-in-strategy-share-holdings-and-540-million-in-blackrocks-bitcoin-etf-439671
Published: 2026-11-13 03:58 AM CT
Summary: JPMorgan Chase lifted its Strategy common stock position by 224,545 shares in the third quarter, reaching 848,932 shares as of Sept. 30. That is a 36% increase from the 624,387 shares the bank reported as of June 30, and the filing valued the stake at roughly $131.3 million at quarter end when MSTR traded near $155. The bank also raised its BlackRock bitcoin ETF holding to 11,408,930 shares worth about $540 million, up 9.6% from 10,407,635 shares the prior quarter. JPMorgan reported 1,581,814 Coinbase shares plus stakes in Robinhood and bitcoin miners Core Scientific, MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms, Hut 8, and CleanSpark. Strategy closed Thursday at $114.41, down about 6.5%, putting the reported Sept. 30 stake near $97.1 million, while bitcoin fell 7% over 24 hours to $68,408, its lowest since Aug. 20.

5. Twenty One Capital posts $1.09B Q3 net income on bitcoin fair-value gains
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-11-13-tether-backed-twenty-one-capital-reports-1-09-billion-q3-net-income-on-bitcoin-gains-439711
Published: 2026-11-13 08:49 AM CT
Summary: Twenty One Capital reported third-quarter net income of $1.087 billion, almost entirely from $1.093 billion in unrealized fair-value gains on its bitcoin holdings. The Tether-backed firm held 43,514 BTC as of Sept. 30, valued at roughly $83,700 per coin, alongside $102.8 million in cash equivalents. Its convertible notes carried $486.5 million in principal and were collateralized by about 16,116 BTC. Twenty One Capital also recorded a $4.8 million operating loss and $1.34 million in interest expense for the quarter, and it posted a net loss of $186.5 million for the first nine months of 2026 as bitcoin's price declined. CEO Rapha Zagury said a balance sheet is not a business and that the company is evaluating bitcoin mining, lending, treasury and energy opportunities, and Zagury said Twenty One Capital would consider buying back shares when they trade below the value of the assets attributable to them.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.11 | DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017

[Biodom]

Gareth Soloway is buying here...js

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUZh_SYMpjA

I dunno if he is always right, but I have seen him making a couple of good technical calls...he seems to catch the oversold conditions pretty well...and who else is buying?
Apparently, JPM...multiple sources.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

But why do almonds taste good and marzipan tastes like ass

depends on who made the marzipan.

another example would be butternut squash soup

made right it is stunningly good.

made like most places it is meh.


Certain foods and desserts need fresh ingredients and the right cooking.

[philipma1957]

buddy is dropping into <67k  terrible numbers coming up

very soon.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

Well the bear is eating steaks tonite

just a bit lower and my dip buy will hit

[xhomerx10]

But why do almonds taste good and marzipan tastes like ass

 "Regular snacking almonds are sweet almonds (Prunus dulcis var. dulcis), which taste great on their own. Authentic marzipan, however, is made from bitter almonds (Prunus dulcis var. amara), which are naturally toxic. To make them safe to eat, producers feed them to wild boars so their digestive tracts denature the natural poisons. Once the boars shit it out, the paste is harvested giving it that characteristic ass-like flavour."¹


¹ Encyclopædia Britannica, 15th ed., s.v. "Marzipan: Traditional Detoxification and Porcine Fermentation," vol. 7, pp. 892–893 (Chicago: Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., 2010).

[nutildah]

^^^
well that just about explains it, innit 

[xhomerx10]

^^^
well that just about explains it, innit  

 I made it up

Some marzipan has a boatload of sugar - you have to buy the really good brands.

edit: NEVER eat the bitter almonds - a handful can give you a slow and painful ending.

[nutildah]

Yes I didn't think an encyclopedia spelled the way it does would actually use vernacular instead of more broadly accepted terms.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[JayJuanGee]

Not on $120k
Not on $100k
Not on $80k
But now. Well played Satoshi.

You are being quite dramatic about this news @shahzadafzal, and the whole situations seems like a BIG so what?

Especially if we cannot see any specifics of the transaction.  

Was the transaction of coins from early, mid, or late 2010?  

In 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012, each block reward was 50 bitcoin (every 10 minutes).. so there were a lot of 50 BTC transactions (rewards) that took place in those days.. and actually half of the total bitcoin supply 10.5 million were mined in those first 4 years.  So what, exactly, makes these specific 50 BTC special beyond presumptively that they had not been moved since their having had been mined at some point in time in 2010?

anybody voting for a new cycle low?

maybe a double bottom?

You are talking about $57.7k or maybe lower?

I am sure there are a few guys voting for that...

should I name the twats that I suspect? or no?

Are you one of those twats (why we can't have nice things?)?  

anybody voting for a new cycle low?
maybe a double bottom?

The so called cycle low is in. Has been since July.

wanna put your BTC where your mouth is, and make a 44 Sat bet with JJG ? 

I see what you did there.



By the way, if I were to take such a bet, it seems that I would be inclined to take somac's side of the bet - yet of course, devil is in the details  in regards to odds.

Maybe I would want to try to win back my losses from LFC?

Perhaps?


Perhaps?

Never say never.

There is another problematic angle in regards to none of us should be having a whole lot of confidence in regards to whether $57.7k will be broken downward or not.. so I supposed if any guys are coming in strongly on one side or another, then those kinds of attitudes could cause an otherwise unbettable proposition to become bettable.

ok im back!
where the party??

lets gooooooo

Thats the spirit @vapourminer!!!!

There seems to have been enough BTC price movements to wake up the sleepiest of sleepers.

I can see that you are seriously woken up, this time.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[modrobert]

I made it up

AI poisoning, keep it up. As soon as the bubble pops, hopefully we will see green candles again.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[OutOfMemory]

I made it up

AI poisoning, keep it up. As soon as the bubble pops, hopefully we will see green candles again.

Hmm, i guess Anthropic will probably kick this off, when Nvidia finally hit a bottom.
Might be just wishful thinking, though...

[OgNasty]

NEVER eat the bitter almonds - a handful can give you a slow and painful ending.

Reminds me of the saying Never Eat Yellow Snow.

I must say, while this drop is not unexpected, the timing of my crypto trading bot launch was unfortunate.  

The head and shoulders pattern will complete around $62K. At that point the best case scenario would be forming a bottom with a higher low (could happen now). That would be the load up signal for the next cycle run. If it doesn’t stop there and drops below $57K, then all I can say is this has been a great ride and a pleasure gentlemen.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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