Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Krabby]

It's hitting that 'support line'

[rebuilder]

Gotta love the hourly thread bump.  This thread will never die as long as ChartBuddy is around.

I don't know, I'm starting to feel kind of bearish. The volume in this thread is pretty dismal right now, and while bots can inject some liquidity, there's only so much they can do if the fundamentals aren't there. Maybe we've reached saturation and it's all downhill from here.

On a "serious" note, though - does anyone have a way to get the growth rate for this thread? that would be an interesting chart...

[Parazyd]

Gotta love the hourly thread bump.  This thread will never die as long as ChartBuddy is around.

I don't know, I'm starting to feel kind of bearish. The volume in this thread is pretty dismal right now, and while bots can inject some liquidity, there's only so much they can do if the fundamentals aren't there. Maybe we've reached saturation and it's all downhill from here.

On a "serious" note, though - does anyone have a way to get the growth rate for this thread? that would be an interesting chart...

Never feel bearish. Remember that one time it was worth less than $1

And for a graph of this thread, maybe Adam could come up with something.

[rebuilder]

Gotta love the hourly thread bump.  This thread will never die as long as ChartBuddy is around.

I don't know, I'm starting to feel kind of bearish. The volume in this thread is pretty dismal right now, and while bots can inject some liquidity, there's only so much they can do if the fundamentals aren't there. Maybe we've reached saturation and it's all downhill from here.

On a "serious" note, though - does anyone have a way to get the growth rate for this thread? that would be an interesting chart...

Never feel bearish. Remember that one time it was worth less than $1

And for a graph of this thread, maybe Adam could come up with something.

I was talking about the thread's prospects. Financially, I'm sure it's priceless.

[faalhaas]

Why all the positive fud ? we are stabilizing at 650 nothing to see here.

[flynn]

"What are the main drivers of the Bitcoin price?
Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis"

=> http://arxiv.org/pdf/1406.0268v1.pdf

[Parazyd]

"What are the main drivers of the Bitcoin price?
Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis"

=> http://arxiv.org/pdf/1406.0268v1.pdf

I've posted this yesterday. It's a great read.

Why all the positive fud ? we are stabilizing at 650 nothing to see here.

So you think. You'll see the activity later today and tomorrow

[flynn]

"What are the main drivers of the Bitcoin price?
Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis"

=> http://arxiv.org/pdf/1406.0268v1.pdf

I've posted this yesterday. It's a great read.

OOooops, sorry I missed it ...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[jl2012]

On page 4, that article by Academic Prof. Kristoufek says

For examination of the relationship between the USD and Chinese Renminbi (CNY) Bitcoin markets, we use prices and volumes of the btcnCNY market which is by far the biggest CNY exchange.

But "btcnCNY" is BTC-China, which at the time the article was written (after MtGOX was found to be insolvent) was essentially dead.  No wonder his fancy wavelet method found no influence of "China" on the USD price.

He must be excused however, since his source for price series is www.bitcoincharts.com -- which STILL refuses to admit the existence of any Chinese exchange other than BTC-China.

Your account opened on Dec 2013. Do you even know anything about bitcoin before that?

BTCChina was always the leading exchange in China, until they started to charge fee in mid-December 2013. Kristoufek's analysis is mainly about the pre-2014 price, so he should look at nothing but BTCChina

[Parazyd]

Nevertheless, BTCChina is still keeping above 4000 CNY.

[flynn]

How odd :

Stamp ATH : 1163
Stamp december minima : 382

1163/382 = 3.044
sqrt(1163/382) = 1.7448

Geometric mean = 382 * 1.7448 ~= 666

(and 666* 1.7448 = 1163)


perfect.

Sorry to insist, but am I the only one to find this significant ?

[Parazyd]

How odd :

Stamp ATH : 1163
Stamp december minima : 382

1163/382 = 3.044
sqrt(1163/382) = 1.7448

Geometric mean = 382 * 1.7448 ~= 666

(and 666* 1.7448 = 1163)


perfect.

Sorry to insist, but am I the only one to find this significant ?

Holy crap! BitSatan!
But that could be done anyhow, you're just searching for numbers that lead up to 666

[MICRO]

"What are the main drivers of the Bitcoin price?
Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis"

=> http://arxiv.org/pdf/1406.0268v1.pdf

I've posted this yesterday. It's a great read.

Why all the positive fud ? we are stabilizing at 650 nothing to see here.

So you think. You'll see the activity later today and tomorrow

Yeah more activity probably later today . Should get to atleast 680$ . When we go past 700$ then the party will begin.

[faalhaas]

"What are the main drivers of the Bitcoin price?
Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis"

=> http://arxiv.org/pdf/1406.0268v1.pdf

I've posted this yesterday. It's a great read.

Why all the positive fud ? we are stabilizing at 650 nothing to see here.

So you think. You'll see the activity later today and tomorrow

Yeah more activity probably later today . Should get to atleast 680$ . When we go past 700$ then the party will begin.

Yeah right , moon in 2 days . Hearing that for over 2 months.
Still nothing. Just some faggots manipulation the price.
Nothing to see over here again.

[flynn]

Holy crap! BitSatan!
But that could be done anyhow, you're just searching for numbers that lead up to 666

Numbers are like people.  Torture them enough, and they will tell you anything you want to hear  :Wink:

I think it's a bit more founded than this.
I used to compute the "impulse" that brought us to 1163 by the mean of (1163,382) , but bitcoin works better with a log scale, thus the use of the geometric mean that magically leads to 666.

It just means to me that we are still under the influence of that pulse, and nothing really new happend in between.

[JayJuanGee]

"What are the main drivers of the Bitcoin price?
Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis"

=> http://arxiv.org/pdf/1406.0268v1.pdf

I've posted this yesterday. It's a great read.

OOooops, sorry I missed it ...

Don't get me wrong, I do appreciate the article, and that the article shares a perspective regarding bitcoin, and I do NOT really claim to understand all of the points of the article.

In that regard, other people may come to conclusions that differ from my perusing the article.

When I read claims in the article, such as, the Chinese BTC market does NOT affect the USD bitcoin market, I give less credibility to the article, and I feel less inclined to thoroughly read such articles in close detail.

Also, this particular article claims that bitcoin is NOT a safe haven for storing value, so in that regard, the article seems inadequately account for diversification of assets investing (which many more sophisticated investors are going to diversify their value storage to some extent, and consider probabilities of pay outs for various classes of investments). Bitcoin may be risky, but as a diversified asset, there seems to be considerable possibilities for storing value and for paying off.

The article does NOT really get into much of the dynamics of the affects of the political and the regulatory attempts and the difficulties and potential underlying hostilities that have existed with bitcoin b/c of the difficulties of governments and or other status quo institutions, such as banks, in controlling the peer to peer nature of bitcoin. In this regard, the article lacks discussion of the threats to the status quo regarding potential wealth redistribution that is posed by the existence of bitcoin (and other crypto currencies).

I find too much emphasis and attempt to emphasize mathematics to achieve validity of claims, when in fact the mathematics of the dynamics of bitcoin need to be taken with a grain of salt, given the other political and other human dynamics that are involved in markets that are NOT strictly predictable in mathematic terms....

NONETHELESS, I do appreciate some of the mathematical discussions that are involved with Metcalfe's law.. and Metcalfe's law predicts some of the exponential potential of bitcoin pricing and value and utility based on adoption and the networking effect causing exponential growth b/c of increased bitcoin adoption.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_law

I know several other participants in this thread are much more familiar than me about the significance of Metcalfe's law. 

Though the article makes some mentions of increased interest in bitcoin, the article does NOT really get into any kind of specific discussion of the impact of metcalfe's law or the networking effect on the dynamics of bitcoin.

Additionally, even though this particular article is published on 6/2/14, some of its graphs and claims seem to focus on the dynamics of the bitcoin market between September 2011 and February 2014, which causes me some hesitation about thoroughness of the claims, even though that period does cover most of bitcoin's life, so far.

[akujin]

Stamp needs a little push 

[Parazyd]

As I've also posted, Metcalfe's law isn't quite good...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation