Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bassclef]

its pretty clear the last ATH was mostly down to Mark and his bots trying to bail himself out of sinking ship.

No, it's not clear at all. I watched them trade, they were secondary.

[macsga]

Nanobrain,  I seem to remember posts like these before the last two bubbles.  The same logic was there, that it was harder to go from $X.XX to $XXX.00 and so on.  

But Bitcoin is the honey badger of money.  Bitcoin does not care about what is logical or even what makes sense.  It rises when it wants to in mind blowing ways.  I don't believe we will see a "mini-bubble"  it will be a bubble beyond our belief.  I believe, based mostly on knowing how humans work and the greed at play, that when the price beings to rise there will be people that have been waiting on the sidelines because they were unsure of what was going to happen, panic buying.  With the panic will come hysteria.  As the thousands of newbies that have not yet experienced a bubble yet see how quickly the price can rise watch they will suddenly throw caution to the wind and throw in what they can as well.  It will be crazy.  It will make no sense and Bitcoin will probably be overvalued at that point.  

All that said, TO THE MOON.  

Hiya hon,
I know what you mean but surely the reasons you posted a bit later down the page show the resistance to wider adoption is far greater than you think.  Gox is still fresh in the public's mind and its pretty clear the last ATH was mostly down to Mark and his bots trying to bail himself out of sinking ship.

At least the thesis posited by 'Post-Cosmic' has some logic behind it.

I find statements like Bitcoin is the honey badger of money to be pretty hollow.  Everything you say above is based on people getting greedy and I suspect, you selling and making some money.  Every bubble there are a big pile of losers who end up with over-priced assets as the price shrinks back -- its not good for any economy (BTC, housing, whatever).  And each time this process happens those people tell their friends and family etc.

This obsession with bubbles rather than slow steady growth must surely counter-productive.  The more price stability we achieve the more people are going to actually use BTC and personally a much narrower range of trading would make me far happier.

I think you're wrong there. There was a significant parameter that most people don't seem to remember, the Cyprus Bail-In. Remember where EVERY bank deposit above 100K eur just ceased to exist? Cyprus lead the party back then, the bots were implemented right after if you see the facts (due to the reasons you've mentioned).

Believe it or not, the "accident" is closer than you think. I hate to spread FUD, especially in a public forum, but you should *REALLY* consider moving your money out of your bank accounts (at least those you want in your pocket, or for an emergency). Expect the EU stress tests to go ugly. Not everyone has the ability / will to fill the cracks of the system with fresh fiat (that -BTW- ended up to those that made the cracks in the first place).

Margin call ladies and gents. Margin call.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitChick]

Nanobrain,  I seem to remember posts like these before the last two bubbles.  The same logic was there, that it was harder to go from $X.XX to $XXX.00 and so on.  

But Bitcoin is the honey badger of money.  Bitcoin does not care about what is logical or even what makes sense.  It rises when it wants to in mind blowing ways.  I don't believe we will see a "mini-bubble"  it will be a bubble beyond our belief.  I believe, based mostly on knowing how humans work and the greed at play, that when the price beings to rise there will be people that have been waiting on the sidelines because they were unsure of what was going to happen, panic buying.  With the panic will come hysteria.  As the thousands of newbies that have not yet experienced a bubble yet see how quickly the price can rise watch they will suddenly throw caution to the wind and throw in what they can as well.  It will be crazy.  It will make no sense and Bitcoin will probably be overvalued at that point.  

All that said, TO THE MOON.  

Hiya hon,
I know what you mean but surely the reasons you posted a bit later down the page show the resistance to wider adoption is far greater than you think.  Gox is still fresh in the public's mind and its pretty clear the last ATH was mostly down to Mark and his bots trying to bail himself out of sinking ship.

At least the thesis posited by 'Post-Cosmic' has some logic behind it.

I find statements like Bitcoin is the honey badger of money to be pretty hollow.  Everything you say above is based on people getting greedy and I suspect, you selling and making some money.  Every bubble there are a big pile of losers who end up with over-priced assets as the price shrinks back -- its not good for any economy (BTC, housing, whatever).  And each time this process happens those people tell their friends and family etc.

This obsession with bubbles rather than slow steady growth must surely counter-productive.  The more price stability we achieve the more people are going to actually use BTC and personally a much narrower range of trading would make me far happier.

I never said bubbles were healthy, or even desirable. (As a long term holder, I would be perfectly content with a nice slow and steady price increase everyday. )  However, until we reach full adoption I think they are inevitable, due mostly to human nature of panic buying during the bubble cycles.  

[nanobrain]

its pretty clear the last ATH was mostly down to Mark and his bots trying to bail himself out of sinking ship.

No, it's not clear at all. I watched them trade, they were secondary.

Well, from my reading of the situation Mark was guilty of fractional reserve trading and he achieved this by using either fake accounts or bots.  The point is people were burnt and the PR fallout is still drifting downwards.

[nanobrain]

I think you're wrong there. There was a significant parameter that most people don't seem to remember, the Cyprus Bail-In. Remember where EVERY bank deposit above 100K eur just ceased to exist? Cyprus lead the party back then, the bots were implemented right after if you see the facts (due to the reasons you've mentioned).

Believe it or not, the "accident" is closer than you think. I hate to spread FUD, especially in a public forum, but you should *REALLY* consider moving your money out of your bank accounts (at least those you want in your pocket, or for an emergency). Expect the EU stress tests to go ugly. Not everyone has the ability / will to fill the cracks of the system with fresh fiat (that -BTW- ended up to those that made the cracks in the first place).

Margin call ladies and gents. Margin call.

Of course, there's not going to be any one factor causing anything, the world is more complex but if you start listing things here these days you are accused of 'walls of text', so it becomes difficult to talk in anything other than vague generalities.

Anyway, you claim Cyprus was a factor causing the bubble, so I'll raise you a Danny Brewster and say Neo-Bee is another cause for a long bear market

[cbeast]

Question:   this weeks high will be:
380   - 62 (29%)
390   - 31 (14.5%)
400   - 18 (8.4%)
410   - 23 (10.7%)
420   - 25 (11.7%)
>450   - 55 (25.7%)
Total Voters: 214

So far the largest group is wrong.

[mooncake]

Ever since Circle's launch a few days ago, I notice the trade pattern on Stamp has changed.

Huge dumps are still observed from time to time, but the frequency is relatively lesser.
 
In the past, whenever there is a slow and sustained upward movement, it will always be followed by huge dumps. Now, the huge dumps occur at a lesser frequency (as above) and despite the price drop, the upward momentum is unaffected.

Despite the relatively stable price, the volume is signficantly higher. Right now, Stamp's daily volume is 14,299BTC. The average is about 4,000BTC when the price is stable.

To be sure, there are still huge ask walls but they seem to be eroded steadily.

Whether Circle's launch marks a trend reversal remains to be seen. We know however given its simplicity, Circle has opened up a whole new audience to bitcoin - the less tech savvy. This creates a new demand and puts a significant pressure on the bears.

[empowering]

Thoughtful posts

Thank you for your thoughtful and reasoned posts.

Just some thoughts of mine..

I personally think that the price this year nor next is the most important thing.
You mention hundreds of millions pouring into the ecosystem last year, I am aware of 250 million that has (publically) been invested in 2014 so far, during a period the price has been heading down. This alone will not raise the price, however as the seed money comes to fruition, then the added publicity will bring added social proof and with that may come more acceptance and trust and understanding of Bitcoin. Along with more useful Bitcoin ecosystems, popping up in more and more places around the world (ie new markets) Also you mention the growth from 09-13, I get what you are saying, but I would counter that even now at this point Bitcoin is a tiny tiny market, and there is still a lot of room for growth, without the need for a major war or financial collapse (in fact a financial collapse may not do BTC anygood whatsoever) when you take into account the growing regulatory framework which, like it or hate it (regulation) the fact is we are getting closer to some clarity, and markets like clarity, and markets hate uncertainty, so the more uncertainty that is removed from the market (which it will be one way or another and in not too long a time period i.e next 6 months to a year) then that will be one less worry for particpants in the market, at an insituional level, and at a "retail level"  This is by no means insignificant, infact it is highly significant, and is one thing that has not existed in any form for Bitcoin to date, and will , IF the legislation is not too burdensome be a good thing for Bitcoin, not because it needs regulation per se, but because of the elimination of some of the regulatory uncertainty. If the legislation is too burdensome then it could do real damage to Bitcoin and the price of Bitcoin, but blockchain technology, and cryptocurrency will no doubt continue to grow and work its way around and continue to evolve, and force legislation to evolve with it too.  However, if the legislation is not to much (which we will find out soon)  and at least some useful tools, end services and economies do continue to be developed and rolled out, both new ones in the coming years, and the fruits of the labour and treasure from the latest rounds of seed money as they come online (and their publicity campaigns) are rolled out, then this is going to start to bring Bitcoin more into the public consciousness, and give it more social proof, and give it a chance at reaching ubiquity. These things are not certainties by any means, however, it is down to ones personal point of view on how much more or less likely these things are to happen now, then they were in 2009-2013, in my view Bitcoin has a MUCH stonger chance of reaching "legality" and a clear legal standing for investors to know what they are dealing with, and if the next year goes off without any major hitch, and by that I mean regulatory hitch then I see this in terms of price , as the most bullish thing that has happend to Bitcoin in its history. (dont worry crypto crowd, there are other cryptos to acheive other goals) This will give BTC the chance over the next few years to grow and become even stronger. This could lead to a positive feedback loop, whereby more clarity, more certainty less fear, more interest, more investment, more buyers, more services, network grows, and gains higher marketcap, network become stronger  the stonger it becomes, the more trusted it is , the more trust the more it grows, and the stonger it gets, the bigger its marketcap has the chance to grow to...   In regards to the money needed to flow into Bitcoin, should it succeed, of course the more orders of magnitude it needs to grow, the harder this becomes from a purely mathmatical point of view when viewed in solo, but when viewed in conjunction with real world events, I think that at least another order of magnitude of price growth is not out of the question, in the next year or two, and if it can do that, they who knows how strong and how big the market could become? I do not, and neither do you.  SO BARRING massive protocol failure, barring massive regulatory shitstorm not putting a spanner in the works, then considering BTC current headstart and network, it has a CHANCE to continue to grow the next few years imo. If this IS the case can quite EASILY see another $50 billion become invested into Bitcoin (ie buying BTC) over the next few years, why not? this is not an obscure reference to metcalfe, but an educated guess , call it a bet if you like, that with regulatory certainty, SOME of the fiat that is currently tied up in gold, stocks, commodities, savings, pensions,  speculation, will flow into Bitcoin, bearing in mind that really 50 billion dollars is not a large sum in reality at all in the grand scheme of things over the next few years, we are talking a tiny percentage of these markets shifting over the next few years... plus a chunk of a growing ecosystem. This is IF it all goes well. So if you do the maths, lets call it 14.5 million Bitcoin in circulation in 2015/16 and lets say we get $50 Billion flow in over next two years , what is that $55 billion market cap  which works out at around $3800 a coin, which is a full order of magnitude from where we are today,( and not too far over your higher estimate if I recall) that is if it goes well.. note I am not cheering or deluded and I use the word IF.  If it does , then I do not see it just dying in two years time... so who knows where it will go.  This is all speculation, as is your thoughtful analysis also which I do not disagree with per se, though I freely admit to being a bit more optimistic than you it seems.  I would also not be overly surprised if $100 billion flowed into the market or even more, in the case of a perfect storm, and I do not mean a war, or a collapse, though I do mean to say actually that over the next 5-10 years  if the market cap reaches 500 Billion, a trillion, which again is NOT too out of the realms of possibility should Bitcoin gain traction and stick around for the next half a decade and say gold become a little less in vouge, and it really does become accepted and trusted by the investment community and then the wider population, then when taking into account the devaluing dollar and increasing money supply, and future world events, then $500 billion,  could become a reality then by 2019 with approx 16-17 million BTC in circualtion , we could end up with a price of around $30,000.  Now if you then take into account some of the scenarios you take into account (ie some sort of shitstorm happening) in the next 5 years (which is not that unlikely) then who knows what could happen.  What I am describing is a perfect storm no doubt, but it the possibility for this happening started in 2013/2014 and will continue with any LUCK over the next 6 months to a year, as regulatory clarity comes to light, and the current and next round of seed money come into fruition.  FAR from a certainty, but more "certain" for want of a better word , or rather more likely this year than it was last year, or the year before.  I agree the most important thing to do is to get involved, and not to just sit on the sidelines hoping the honey badger come and makes all ones lazy dreams come true.

TL/DR The next 6 months,  year really is critical to BTC reaching these price levels and havingthe chance of becoming a real force.

No doubt there are a multitude of things that could "throw a spanner in the works" that I will not go into now as I should be asleep and I need to get up in a few hours and my post is a million words long already.  

If Bitcoin gains traction, via the coming clarity in he next year, then it has a shot of becoming a force and staying around for another 5 years, and then MAYBE, just MAYBE another five years after that.

All speculation of course, which is what we are all doing. With speculation, if you are investing, then we need to know we are investing in a high risk venture, (though less risk now imo than 2 years ago) with high risk, comes high rewards if it works out.

Regardless, the cryptocurrency cat is out of the bag, and I do not see it ever going back in again, it is out there now, in the public consciousness and cryptocurrency and blockchain tech has a real shot of levelling the playing field and becoming a world and society changing paradigm shifting force that will I think have positive implicaitons for the ever evolving and growing society, and for the world which is going to change so so much over the next quarter of a century.

Of course, Bitcoin the currency could get shot down in a ball of flames by the powers that be, of that I am not arguing, it could face many things which do not allow it to gain that traction, that it will without a doubt need to make the next order of magnitude of growth (in terms of price and adoption)  and the model could all change no doubt, a unknown unknown could pop up and burst any hope it has. However, in my humble opinion, it has more of a chance this year and next of gaining that exact traction that it needs , than it has had at any point in its life span so far, and I for one, am investing my time, effort, thought, and money on that exact chance, that exact risk..  not my life savings, and I am not 100% crypto lifestyle or 100% involved in cryptocurrency as a way of earning my crust yet... yet, but I am gearing towards that should the next year go well.

 We are all along for the ride, and I do not see it as black and white personally, so very few things in life are black and white... this is in the grey, and has the chance of a wildcard, positive and negative.

My two satoshi , for what they are worth.

Eitherway enjoy the ride- and stay safe (ie invest you time and money in a sensible manner)

Good luck to you, to us all, and if luck does not cut it... then mitigate your risks, and also get your hands dirty.

This is no time for acting serious, this is a time for seriously acting.

(I am a naturally optimistic, but at the same time practical kind of a guy, and also money is not that important to me or my life, only as much as it needs to be)  

(ps I a half asleep ha ha I should be asleep if my spelling and grammar is shyte, or I rambled around the farm then opps sorry my bad)

(PS the above post is me NOT cheering... nor being overly bearish--- in my bullish moments I secretly hope that the wildcard comes into play andwe hit $10,000 be 2016, and the bearish side of me hopes we do not hit $50 by 2016)   

[macsga]

I think you're wrong there. There was a significant parameter that most people don't seem to remember, the Cyprus Bail-In. Remember where EVERY bank deposit above 100K eur just ceased to exist? Cyprus lead the party back then, the bots were implemented right after if you see the facts (due to the reasons you've mentioned).

Believe it or not, the "accident" is closer than you think. I hate to spread FUD, especially in a public forum, but you should *REALLY* consider moving your money out of your bank accounts (at least those you want in your pocket, or for an emergency). Expect the EU stress tests to go ugly. Not everyone has the ability / will to fill the cracks of the system with fresh fiat (that -BTW- ended up to those that made the cracks in the first place).

Margin call ladies and gents. Margin call.

Of course, there's not going to be any one factor causing anything, the world is more complex but if you start listing things here these days you are accused of 'walls of text', so it becomes difficult to talk in anything other than vague generalities.

Anyway, you claim Cyprus was a factor causing the bubble, so I'll raise you a Danny Brewster and say Neo-Bee is another cause for a long bear market

There are a lot of people accused with "walls of text" (look above) . We're far from that, don't worry. You have a point there. Granted. We will both have our chances on verifying our positions. I won't mind if I lose my holdings. Please do verify that you have the same ability (just in case).  

[empowering]

This is for empowering

James Bond vs The Global Recession
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKeoOnSvXn4

I'm sure he loves Cassetteboy.

ermm... I am utterly lost?

It is late here right now and I am literally half asleep

(care to explain what exactly I am supposed to get from this?)

It's funny, that's all.
Being English I imagined you were familiar with his work (check out the Parker Tapes).

Nevermind.

Ahh sorry dude... I was looking for a bigger meaning... past my bedtime , I was almost asleep  when I watched it, until all hell broke loose nextdoor, alas I am awake again now...  I am not that familiar with cassetteboy tbh, a friend of mine has shown me some before, but years ago, I seem to remember them being different (mix ups of people talking to sound like raps? am I right there was a gordon ramsey one if I recall?)

Dont get me wrong it was quite amusing ! : )  I just though it was in reference to something I had said and I could not think of what it might be.

thanks for the lulz : )

(edit thanks will will check out the parker tapes)

: )

[ShroomsKit]

Bitchick, the morally superior christian is one of the most money greedy people to post here.
Typical christian behaviour. She is also extremely simple minded.
She disgusts me. Everything about her does.

[nanobrain]

There are a lot of people accused with "walls of text" (look above) . We're far from that, don't worry. You have a point there. Granted. We will both have our chances on verifying our positions. I won't mind if I lose my holdings. Please do verify that you have the same ability (just in case).  

Yes, that is one hell of a wall of text

EDIT: Well I've just ploughed through and that too is a good rebuttal, points of which I would also agree with (certainly the next 6 to 18 months are pretty much make or break).  The issue of regulatory control is a very contentious one, personally I agree its needed but I know a lot of libertarians disagree and there is a danger a regulated BTC changes nothing socially, it just means folk consume more, quicker.


With regard to my holdings, well they are pretty modest these days.

[5cMXezpBtm]

Could You please write Your texts in a fashion, that it produces ASCII art? That would be more fun. Thanks

Thoughtful posts

Thank you for your thoughtful and reasoned posts.

Just some thoughts of mine..

I personally think that the price this year nor next is the most important thing.
You mention hundreds of millions pouring into the ecosystem last year, I am aware of 250 million that has (publically) been invested in 2014 so far, during a period the price has been heading down. This alone will not raise the price, however as the seed money comes to fruition, then the added publicity will bring added social proof and with that may come more acceptance and trust and understanding of Bitcoin. Along with more useful Bitcoin ecosystems, popping up in more and more places around the world (ie new markets) Also you mention the growth from 09-13, I get what you are saying, but I would counter that even now at this point Bitcoin is a tiny tiny market, and there is still a lot of room for growth, without the need for a major war or financial collapse (in fact a financial collapse may not do BTC anygood whatsoever) when you take into account the growing regulatory framework which, like it or hate it (regulation) the fact is we are getting closer to some clarity, and markets like clarity, and markets hate uncertainty, so the more uncertainty that is removed from the market (which it will be one way or another and in not too long a time period i.e next 6 months to a year) then that will be one less worry for particpants in the market, at an insituional level, and at a "retail level"  This is by no means insignificant, infact it is highly significant, and is one thing that has not existed in any form for Bitcoin to date, and will , IF the legislation is not too burdensome be a good thing for Bitcoin, not because it needs regulation per se, but because of the elimination of some of the regulatory uncertainty. If the legislation is too burdensome then it could do real damage to Bitcoin and the price of Bitcoin, but blockchain technology, and cryptocurrency will no doubt continue to grow and work its way around and continue to evolve, and force legislation to evolve with it too.  However, if the legislation is not to much (which we will find out soon)  and at least some useful tools, end services and economies do continue to be developed and rolled out, both new ones in the coming years, and the fruits of the labour and treasure from the latest rounds of seed money as they come online (and their publicity campaigns) are rolled out, then this is going to start to bring Bitcoin more into the public consciousness, and give it more social proof, and give it a chance at reaching ubiquity. These things are not certainties by any means, however, it is down to ones personal point of view on how much more or less likely these things are to happen now, then they were in 2009-2013, in my view Bitcoin has a MUCH stonger chance of reaching "legality" and a clear legal standing for investors to know what they are dealing with, and if the next year goes off without any major hitch, and by that I mean regulatory hitch then I see this in terms of price , as the most bullish thing that has happend to Bitcoin in its history. (dont worry crypto crowd, there are other cryptos to acheive other goals) This will give BTC the chance over the next few years to grow and become even stronger. This could lead to a positive feedback loop, whereby more clarity, more certainty less fear, more interest, more investment, more buyers, more services, network grows, and gains higher marketcap, network become stronger  the stonger it becomes, the more trusted it is , the more trust the more it grows, and the stonger it gets, the bigger its marketcap has the chance to grow to...   In regards to the money needed to flow into Bitcoin, should it succeed, of course the more orders of magnitude it needs to grow, the harder this becomes from a purely mathmatical point of view when viewed in solo, but when viewed in conjunction with real world events, I think that at least another order of magnitude of price growth is not out of the question, in the next year or two, and if it can do that, they who knows how strong and how big the market could become? I do not, and neither do you.  SO BARRING massive protocol failure, barring massive regulatory shitstorm not putting a spanner in the works, then considering BTC current headstart and network, it has a CHANCE to continue to grow the next few years imo. If this IS the case can quite EASILY see another $50 billion become invested into Bitcoin (ie buying BTC) over the next few years, why not? this is not an obscure reference to metcalfe, but an educated guess , call it a bet if you like, that with regulatory certainty, SOME of the fiat that is currently tied up in gold, stocks, commodities, savings, pensions,  speculation, will flow into Bitcoin, bearing in mind that really 50 billion dollars is not a large sum in reality at all in the grand scheme of things over the next few years, we are talking a tiny percentage of these markets shifting over the next few years... plus a chunk of a growing ecosystem. This is IF it all goes well. So if you do the maths, lets call it 14.5 million Bitcoin in circulation in 2015/16 and lets say we get $50 Billion flow in over next two years , what is that $55 billion market cap  which works out at around $3800 a coin, which is a full order of magnitude from where we are today,( and not too far over your higher estiate if I recall) that is if it goes well.. note I am not cheering or deluded and I use the word IF.  If it does , then I do not see it just dying in two years time... so who knows where it will go.  This is all speculation, as is your thoughtful analysis also which I do not disagree with per se, though I freely admit to being a bit more optimistic than you it seems.  I would also not be overly surprised if $100 billion flowed into the market or even more, in the case of a perfect storm, and I do not mean a war, or a collapse, though I do mean to say actually that over the next 5-10 years  if the market cap reaches 500 Billion, a trillion, which again is NOT too out of the realms of possibility should Bitcoin gain traction and stick around for the next half a decade and say gold become a little less in vouge, and it really does become accepted and trusted by the investment community and then the wider population, then when taking into account the devaluing dollar and increasing money supply, and future world events, then $500 billion,  could become a reality then by 2019 with approx 16-17 million BTC in circualtion , we could end up with a price of around $30,000.  Now if you then take into account some of the scenarios you take into account (ie some sort of shitstorm happening) in the next 5 years (which is not that unlikely) then who knows what could happen.  What I am describing is a perfect storm no doubt, but it the possibility for this happening started in 2013/2014 and will continue with any LUCK over the next 6 months to a year, as regulatory clarity comes to light, and the current and next round of seed money come into fruition.  FAR from a certainty, but more "certain" for want of a better word , or rather more likely this year than it was last year, or the year before.  I agree the most important thing to do is to get involved, and not to just sit on the sidelines hoping the honey badger come and makes all ones lazy dreams come true.

TL/DR The next 6 months,  year really is critical to BTC reaching these price levels and havingthe chance of becoming a real force.

No doubt there are a multitude of things that could "throw a spanner in the works" that I will not go into now as I should be asleep and I need to get up in a few hours and my post is a million words long already.  

If Bitcoin gains traction, via the coming clarity in he next year, then it has a shot of becoming a force and staying around for another 5 years, and then MAYBE, just MAYBE another five years after that.

All speculation of course, which is what we are all doing. With speculation, if you are investing, then we need to know we are investing in a high risk venture, (though less risk now imo than 2 years ago) with high risk, coes high rewards if it works out.

Regardless, the cryptocurrency cat is out of the bag, and I do not see it ever going back in again, it is out there now, in the public consciousness and cryptocurrency and blockchain tech has a real shot of levelling the playing field and becoming a world and society changing paradigm shifting force that will I think have positive implicaitons for the ever evolving and growing society, and for the world which is going to change so so much over the next quarter of a century.

Of course, Bitcoin the currency could get shot down in a ball of flames by the powers that be, of that I am not arguing, it could face many things which do not allow it to gain that traction, that it will without a doubt need to make the next order of magnitude of growth (in terms of price and adoption)  and the model could all change no doubt, a unknown unknown could pop up and burst any hope it has. However, in my humble opinion, it has more of a chance this year and next of gaining that exact traction that it needs , than it has had at any point in its life span so far, and I for one, am investing my time, effort, thought, and money on that exact chance, that exact risk..  not my life savings, and I am not 100% crypto lifestyle or 100% involved in cryptocurrency as a way of earning my crust yet... yet, but I am gearing towards that should the next year go well.

 We are all along for the ride, and I do not see it as black and white personally, so very few things in life are black and white... this is in the grey, and has the chance of a wildcard, positive and negative.

My two satoshi , for what they are worth.

Eitherway enjoy the ride- and stay safe (ie invest you time and money in a sensible manner)

Good luck to you, to us all, and if luck does not cut it... then mitigate your risks, and also get your hands dirty.

This is no time for acting serious, this is a time for seriously acting.

(I am a naturally optimistic, but at the same time practical kind of a guy, and also money is not that important to me or my life, only as much as it needs to be)  

(ps I a half asleep ha ha I should be asleep if my spelling and grammar is shyte, or I rambled around the farm then opps sorry my bad)

[fonzie]

Looks a bit toppish and out of steam right now.

[nioc]

Bitchick, the morally superior christian is one of the most money greedy people to post here.
Typical christian behaviour. She is also extremely simple minded.
She disgusts me. Everything about her does.

Without compassion all is meaningless

[Peter R]

Well, from my reading of the situation Mark was guilty of fractional reserve trading and he achieved this by using either fake accounts or bots.  The point is people were burnt and the PR fallout is still drifting downwards.

It's pretty clear that MtGox was operating on fractional reserves, and I also believe that Willy was Mark's bot.  But your assertion the he "achieved [fraction reserve trading] by using either fake accounts or bots" seems to imply that he was the mastermind of some elaborate scam.  I think it's much more likely that he was running fractional reserves, not out of intent to defraud, but to coverup (and try to fix) a large bitcoin theft from 2011:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zdnop/peter_rs_theory_on_the_collapse_of_mt_gox/

MtGox was making good money, and Mark would have preferred to keep his reputation and his business than risk everything, including potentially his own life, in executing some fractional-reserve scheme that was doomed to implode.  If you were a powerful and respected figure in the bitcoin community, the owner of the world's largest bitcoin exchange, and already reasonably wealthy, would you have concocted some hair-brained doomed-to-fail scheme like this?

If my theory is correct, it means that Willy didn't pump the price at all, but that the price was in fact artificially low through 2011 and 2012 due to the sale of almost a million bitcoins by the actual Gox thief.  Willy was just drove the price up as required to make good on MtGox bitcoin withdrawals.  Remember, there were 850,000 missing bitcoins upon the implosion of Gox and very little missing dollars--not the other way around.  This means that bitcoins were actually more rare than the market had priced in.

I agree that the collapse of MtGox was a setback for bitcoin.  I'm just getting tired of people stating that Markus and Willy were the dominant factor in the growth spurts of 2013 or that they were part of some nefarious-but-vague plan that no one can describe concretely yet contain the buzz words "fraction reserves" and "pump and dump."  Really, how did Willy and Markus improve Mark's quality of life if that was really their purpose?  No, Mark was desperate to save Gox.

[empowering]

Bitchick, the morally superior christian is one of the most money greedy people to post here.
Typical christian behaviour. She is also extremely simple minded.
She disgusts me. Everything about her does.

Disgust? my what words do you leave for things like beheading and child abuse?

Bit fucking strong old chap if you ask me... you barely know the person...sort it out !? 

[empowering]

Could You please write Your texts in a fashion, that it produces ASCII art? That would be more fun. Thanks

maybe next time or maybe next time just a daft gif never can tell.. it is totally wild in here sometimes

[nanobrain]

Well, from my reading of the situation Mark was guilty of fractional reserve trading and he achieved this by using either fake accounts or bots.  The point is people were burnt and the PR fallout is still drifting downwards.

It's pretty clear that MtGox was operating on fractional reserves, and I also believe that Willy was Mark's bot.  But your assertion the he "achieved [fraction reserve trading] by using either fake accounts or bots" seems to imply that he was the mastermind of some elaborate scam.  I think it's much more likely that he was running fractional reserves, not out of intent to defraud, but to coverup (and try to fix) a large bitcoin theft from 2011:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zdnop/peter_rs_theory_on_the_collapse_of_mt_gox/

MtGox was making good money, and Mark would have preferred to keep his reputation and his business than risk everything, including potentially his own life, in executing some fractional-reserve scheme that was doomed to implode.  If you were a powerful and respected figure in the bitcoin community, the owner of the world's largest bitcoin exchange, and already reasonably wealthy, would you have concocted some hair-brained doomed-to-fail scheme like this?

If my theory is correct, it means that Willy didn't pump the price at all, but that the price was in fact artificially low through 2011 and 2012 due to the sale of almost a million bitcoins by the actual Gox thief.  Willy was just drove the price up as required to make good on MtGox bitcoin withdrawals.  Remember, there were 850,000 missing bitcoins upon the implosion of Gox and very little missing dollars--not the other way around.  This means that bitcoins were actually more rare than the market had priced in.

I agree that the collapse of MtGox was a setback for bitcoin.  I'm just getting tired of people thinking that Markus and Willy were the dominant factor in the growth spurts of 2013 or that they were part of some nefarious-but-vague plan that no one can describe concretely yet contain the buzz words "fraction reserves" and "pump and dump."  Really, how did Willy and Markus improve Mark's quality of life if that was really their purpose?  No, Mark was desperate to save Gox.

Peter, you post an interesting and highly plausible situation although my travails through the BTC eco-system have made me pretty cynical -- you are putting Mark's actions down to misplaced stupidity and part of me would like to believe this is true.  I never made any claims to know the motivations or machinations behind the mess.

But who knows for sure -- it may come out in the wash, the 'truth' (whatever that is) may never be known.  Greater and more powerful men than Mark have fallen due to hubris rather than simple incompetency.