Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[porcupine87]

LTC explosion on okcoin, 1W MACD about to turn Green. $4 is cheap  

LTC price & volume is 100% manipulated by BOTS and fake coins.
There are only 32,890,401 existing LTC.
The volume on OKCOIN is made with fake LTC and BOTS.
Don't get fooled !
LTC doesn't have a free market for the price. It is all controlled by few scammers.

Control by Bots: Yes , just like btc.
Volume can be higher than actual coin supply is not Abnormal in a FREE trading system like Okcoin. Same coins being bought and sold by bots multiple times creating big volume. Its great for liquidity actually.

PS : I trade ltc on okcoin, i know what am talking of

Free trading is only on the Chinese exchange and not the International. Volume of the Chinese version is NOT  included on Coinmarketcap
Neeedless to say im trading on the cn (yuan) version and not the com (USD). I'm in and out endless times a day, why not
Okcoin International exchange (USD) https://www.okcoin.com/about/vip.do    
Okcoin Chinese exchange (CNY) https://www.okcoin.cn/about/vip.do

Huobis international exchange (USD)  https://www.bityes.com/help/rates  
Huobi Chinese exchange (CNY) https://www.huobi.com/help/?

Hm but in august there was a daily volume with about 18-19mio. This is more than 50% of all coins. In Bitcoin they have around 1.5% of all bitcoins as daily volume. Sure, traders could sell and buy several times a day but this is the same with Bitcoin.

[JayJuanGee]

It looks like my prediction is still on track.
bubble start between 25th sept. and 25th oct.
Now CCMF!

That seems to be a very (and even too quick rise to the top).. and where is the top gonna be in your enlightened vision?

<-- look left.

I saw the date.. that is what I mean when I suggested that you are predicting a quick move to the top....

I was asking you about the number.. the price?  $1k, $2k, $5k?  do you have a ballpark estimate?

Price is more difficult. I did not really think about the price yet.
First guess would be around $3k, but it really depends how things work out during the bubble.
It could top to 10k$ if something big happens in the world. Otherwise, 3k$ is my moderate guess.

Fair enough........ but seems kind of quick to get to $3k... but what the fuck do I know?  I was thinking that we may diddly dadly around a little more in the sub $800s arena.. and probably see a $3k to $13k bubble in early 2015-ish.. and possibly NOT until May-ish 2015... but my predictions are even less concrete than yours.

On a bit of a side note, I saw some of your posts when BTC prices were transgressing below $350 and into the $270s arena... and some of your posts certainly had the tone of questioning and maybe even teetering on retracting your 9/25 to 10/25 upwardly mobile ...prediction... he hehe....    I doubt that your earlier prediction contemplated the $270s dip.. and in that regard, wouldn't the $270s dip have an affect of potentially delaying or stiffling in some way the extent of the upward bullishness and even the rapidity of such upward price movement contained in your prediction?

[ShroomsKit]

Wtf is that guy on bitfinex thinking?  Its going up now better dump my coins

Typical trader logic.

[grappa_barricata]

Wtf is that guy on bitfinex thinking?  Its going up now better dump my coins

Typical trader logic.

Hey shroom, we broke 400... still not happy? What do you want, everything and right now?

[Hunyadi]

2k BTC ask wall at 409.

[klee]

2k BTC ask wall at 409.

It will be eaten!

[findftp]

Fair enough........ but seems kind of quick to get to $3k... but what the fuck do I know?  I was thinking that we may diddly dadly around a little more in the sub $800s arena.. and probably see a $3k to $13k bubble in early 2015-ish.. and possibly NOT until May-ish 2015... but my predictions are even less concrete than yours.

On a bit of a side note, I saw some of your posts when BTC prices were transgressing below $350 and into the $270s arena... and some of your posts certainly had the tone of questioning and maybe even teetering on retracting your 9/25 to 10/25 upwardly mobile ...prediction... he hehe....    I doubt that your earlier prediction contemplated the $270s dip.. and in that regard, wouldn't the $270s dip have an affect of potentially delaying or stiffling in some way the extent of the upward bullishness and even the rapidity of such upward price movement contained in your prediction?

Well, I'm a long term buy and hodler. I try to buy the dips.
I was buying at 450 and 400 because I did not really expect it to go lower.
This being said, my $3k prediction can also be too conservative.
Maybe I spend (because I don't sell for cash) some satoshis at $3k to find the price at $10k one week later.
You know, during the bubble things can go really quick. Doubling the price in a few days is very possible.
I spent some coins on a restaurant during the last bubble. Afterwards is was right on the top, but you can't be that lucky all the time.
I bought them back weeks later.
Last few months I've also been spending coins, but I always bought them back the next day.
Let's say the top will be somewhere between $3k and ∞

[CMMPro]

@findftp

I think the time period for your peak prediction is a little short...would you agree?
That's only 2-4 weeks.

The last rise to peak was 7 weeks, before that it was 12 weeks.

I'd guess we are in for a longer period this time due to the lengthy time between peaks....we have some catching up to do to get back to trend.

Perhaps we will see a new peak before the new year if it is beginning now....that's 10 weeks away.

[dnaleor]

Fair enough........ but seems kind of quick to get to $3k... but what the fuck do I know?  I was thinking that we may diddly dadly around a little more in the sub $800s arena.. and probably see a $3k to $13k bubble in early 2015-ish.. and possibly NOT until May-ish 2015... but my predictions are even less concrete than yours.

On a bit of a side note, I saw some of your posts when BTC prices were transgressing below $350 and into the $270s arena... and some of your posts certainly had the tone of questioning and maybe even teetering on retracting your 9/25 to 10/25 upwardly mobile ...prediction... he hehe....    I doubt that your earlier prediction contemplated the $270s dip.. and in that regard, wouldn't the $270s dip have an affect of potentially delaying or stiffling in some way the extent of the upward bullishness and even the rapidity of such upward price movement contained in your prediction?

Well, I'm a long term buy and hodler. I try to buy the dips.
I was buying at 450 and 400 because I did not really expect it to go lower.
This being said, my $3k prediction can also be too conservative.
Maybe I spend (because I don't sell for cash) some satoshis at $3k to find the price at $10k one week later.
You know, during the bubble things can go really quick. Doubling the price in a few days is very possible.
I spent some coins on a restaurant during the last bubble. Afterwards is was right on the top, but you can't be that lucky all the time.
I bought them back weeks later.
Last few months I've also been spending coins, but I always bought them back the next day.
Let's say the top will be somewhere between $3k and ∞

We call that "moon" around here  

[findftp]

@findftp

I think the time period for your peak prediction is a little short...would you agree?
That's only 2-4 weeks.

I know, isn't it fun! Mega multi billionaire in 4 weeks!

The last rise to peak was 7 weeks, before that it was 12 weeks.

I'd guess we are in for a longer period this time due to the lengthy time between peaks....we have some catching up to do to get back to trend.

Perhaps we will see a new peak before the new year if it is beginning now....that's 10 weeks away.

My model is based on interpolation. I could easily be 2 weeks of. But I had to set a date.

[Erdogan]

So the question I have for everyone is are we really ready for another bubble?  For those of you that have been through a rally before do you remember how addicted we became to the charts? Even more so than now, which can be hard to believe for some of us. And if you are anything like me, all I seemed to talk about day and night was Bitcoin.  My kids would even say, "Stop talking about Bitcoin!"  But the obsessiveness was because of the adrenalin rush of price increases every day, every hour and sometimes every minute!  Hopefully I can remain more calm and less of an "addict" this time around.  We will see. . .  

I prefer a modest rise of 10% per week in the beginning of a new bubble, so we rise too fast. Wild guess: this time we first get a minibubble of say 2000 USD/B, after a pause of a month or so we get the real bubble.

How far does the real bubble go?

Initially, I had been thinking $2.5k to $5k; however, since we seemed to have been delayed a few extra months, I began to conjecture between $3k and $13k... mostly based on pent-up demand and the fact that there has been considerable more infrastructure built and additional easy abilities for big money to easily get in or out, in fairly short notice.

I agree, much pent-up demand. At least $10K.

[MrPiggles]

Even though i sold half my btc at $380 last month if we hit $3k it would make enough of a difference to my long term FI goal that I could pretty much quit working on the spot.

Therefore i think it's unlikely as I am never that lucky

[ShroomsKit]

Wtf is that guy on bitfinex thinking?  Its going up now better dump my coins

Typical trader logic.

Hey shroom, we broke 400... still not happy? What do you want, everything and right now?

No. I'm happy. But that doesn't mean i have to stop mentioning that traders are idiots.

[ShroomsKit]

And up goes the wall...

But no-one dumping 1K of coins into the bid-side, as we have come to expect in the last six months.  So, perhaps the wall at 420 is a good thing, calming the market and allowing some consolidation before further gains?

I noticed the big dumping (800 to 1k coins, often several times a day) finally stopped the last few days. We really needed that.

Fuck

Followed by the usual ask wall. Yup. He is back.

[Feri22]

Wtf is that guy on bitfinex thinking?  Its going up now better dump my coins

Typical trader logic.

Hey shroom, we broke 400... still not happy? What do you want, everything and right now?

No. I'm happy. But that doesn't mean i have to stop mentioning that traders are idiots.

 

[Hunyadi]

2k BTC ask wall at 409.

1.5k at 406.

[touhonoob]

double bottomed at 400  

[CMMPro]

So the question I have for everyone is are we really ready for another bubble?  For those of you that have been through a rally before do you remember how addicted we became to the charts? Even more so than now, which can be hard to believe for some of us. And if you are anything like me, all I seemed to talk about day and night was Bitcoin.  My kids would even say, "Stop talking about Bitcoin!"  But the obsessiveness was because of the adrenalin rush of price increases every day, every hour and sometimes every minute!  Hopefully I can remain more calm and less of an "addict" this time around.  We will see. . .  

I prefer a modest rise of 10% per week in the beginning of a new bubble, so we rise too fast. Wild guess: this time we first get a minibubble of say 2000 USD/B, after a pause of a month or so we get the real bubble.

How far does the real bubble go?

Initially, I had been thinking $2.5k to $5k; however, since we seemed to have been delayed a few extra months, I began to conjecture between $3k and $13k... mostly based on pent-up demand and the fact that there has been considerable more infrastructure built and additional easy abilities for big money to easily get in or out, in fairly short notice.

I agree, much pent-up demand. At least $10K.

Here is what I have in my spreadsheet:
Today            Oct 14, 2014   2110   $3,058.58      0.600   $12,176.43   
FV Test  Date   Dec 2, 2014   2159   $4,296.43                 $17,104.41

So, what it's saying is that if it has already started...today's log10()trend value should be $3058, and we predict 7 weeks from today as the peak of log10() +0.600 above the trend of $17104.

log10() +0.600 is a conservative estimate, in the past we have gone log10() +1.7 above the trend but that seems unfathomable to me right now...because that would put us into numbers above $212k per btc.

[JayJuanGee]

So the question I have for everyone is are we really ready for another bubble?  For those of you that have been through a rally before do you remember how addicted we became to the charts? Even more so than now, which can be hard to believe for some of us. And if you are anything like me, all I seemed to talk about day and night was Bitcoin.  My kids would even say, "Stop talking about Bitcoin!"  But the obsessiveness was because of the adrenalin rush of price increases every day, every hour and sometimes every minute!  Hopefully I can remain more calm and less of an "addict" this time around.  We will see. . .  

I prefer a modest rise of 10% per week in the beginning of a new bubble, so we rise too fast. Wild guess: this time we first get a minibubble of say 2000 USD/B, after a pause of a month or so we get the real bubble.

How far does the real bubble go?

Initially, I had been thinking $2.5k to $5k; however, since we seemed to have been delayed a few extra months, I began to conjecture between $3k and $13k... mostly based on pent-up demand and the fact that there has been considerable more infrastructure built and additional easy abilities for big money to easily get in or out, in fairly short notice.

I agree, much pent-up demand. At least $10K.

You are predicting, more or less, mini-bubble in 2014, and then "real" bubble in early 2015?

[ShroomsKit]

And below 400. Thanks ahole!
Wth does this guy want. 10 months of going down wasn't enough? One little uptrend and he has to stop it? How much longer? 1 month? 1 year? 5 years?