Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[touhonoob]

double bottomed at 400  

[CMMPro]

So the question I have for everyone is are we really ready for another bubble?  For those of you that have been through a rally before do you remember how addicted we became to the charts? Even more so than now, which can be hard to believe for some of us. And if you are anything like me, all I seemed to talk about day and night was Bitcoin.  My kids would even say, "Stop talking about Bitcoin!"  But the obsessiveness was because of the adrenalin rush of price increases every day, every hour and sometimes every minute!  Hopefully I can remain more calm and less of an "addict" this time around.  We will see. . .  

I prefer a modest rise of 10% per week in the beginning of a new bubble, so we rise too fast. Wild guess: this time we first get a minibubble of say 2000 USD/B, after a pause of a month or so we get the real bubble.

How far does the real bubble go?

Initially, I had been thinking $2.5k to $5k; however, since we seemed to have been delayed a few extra months, I began to conjecture between $3k and $13k... mostly based on pent-up demand and the fact that there has been considerable more infrastructure built and additional easy abilities for big money to easily get in or out, in fairly short notice.

I agree, much pent-up demand. At least $10K.

Here is what I have in my spreadsheet:
Today            Oct 14, 2014   2110   $3,058.58      0.600   $12,176.43   
FV Test  Date   Dec 2, 2014   2159   $4,296.43                 $17,104.41

So, what it's saying is that if it has already started...today's log10()trend value should be $3058, and we predict 7 weeks from today as the peak of log10() +0.600 above the trend of $17104.

log10() +0.600 is a conservative estimate, in the past we have gone log10() +1.7 above the trend but that seems unfathomable to me right now...because that would put us into numbers above $212k per btc.

[JayJuanGee]

So the question I have for everyone is are we really ready for another bubble?  For those of you that have been through a rally before do you remember how addicted we became to the charts? Even more so than now, which can be hard to believe for some of us. And if you are anything like me, all I seemed to talk about day and night was Bitcoin.  My kids would even say, "Stop talking about Bitcoin!"  But the obsessiveness was because of the adrenalin rush of price increases every day, every hour and sometimes every minute!  Hopefully I can remain more calm and less of an "addict" this time around.  We will see. . .  

I prefer a modest rise of 10% per week in the beginning of a new bubble, so we rise too fast. Wild guess: this time we first get a minibubble of say 2000 USD/B, after a pause of a month or so we get the real bubble.

How far does the real bubble go?

Initially, I had been thinking $2.5k to $5k; however, since we seemed to have been delayed a few extra months, I began to conjecture between $3k and $13k... mostly based on pent-up demand and the fact that there has been considerable more infrastructure built and additional easy abilities for big money to easily get in or out, in fairly short notice.

I agree, much pent-up demand. At least $10K.

You are predicting, more or less, mini-bubble in 2014, and then "real" bubble in early 2015?

[ShroomsKit]

And below 400. Thanks ahole!
Wth does this guy want. 10 months of going down wasn't enough? One little uptrend and he has to stop it? How much longer? 1 month? 1 year? 5 years?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Even though i sold half my btc at $380 last month if we hit $3k it would make enough of a difference to my long term FI goal that I could pretty much quit working on the spot.

Therefore i think it's unlikely as I am never that lucky

I thought that you were buying those coins back in the low $300s?  NOT enough cash flow to buy them all back?



By the way, trend reversal again, we are in the $300s... back to a bear market....   Fuck.. 

[ShroomsKit]

Look at the idiot sheep following him. Completely shitting their pants.

[Pala_00]

[JayJuanGee]

So the question I have for everyone is are we really ready for another bubble?  For those of you that have been through a rally before do you remember how addicted we became to the charts? Even more so than now, which can be hard to believe for some of us. And if you are anything like me, all I seemed to talk about day and night was Bitcoin.  My kids would even say, "Stop talking about Bitcoin!"  But the obsessiveness was because of the adrenalin rush of price increases every day, every hour and sometimes every minute!  Hopefully I can remain more calm and less of an "addict" this time around.  We will see. . .  

I prefer a modest rise of 10% per week in the beginning of a new bubble, so we rise too fast. Wild guess: this time we first get a minibubble of say 2000 USD/B, after a pause of a month or so we get the real bubble.

How far does the real bubble go?

Initially, I had been thinking $2.5k to $5k; however, since we seemed to have been delayed a few extra months, I began to conjecture between $3k and $13k... mostly based on pent-up demand and the fact that there has been considerable more infrastructure built and additional easy abilities for big money to easily get in or out, in fairly short notice.

I agree, much pent-up demand. At least $10K.

Here is what I have in my spreadsheet:
Today            Oct 14, 2014   2110   $3,058.58      0.600   $12,176.43   
FV Test  Date   Dec 2, 2014   2159   $4,296.43                 $17,104.41

So, what it's saying is that if it has already started...today's log10()trend value should be $3058, and we predict 7 weeks from today as the peak of log10() +0.600 above the trend of $17104.

log10() +0.600 is a conservative estimate, in the past we have gone log10() +1.7 above the trend but that seems unfathomable to me right now...because that would put us into numbers above $212k per btc.

In other words, it will NOT make a whole hell-a-va lot of difference if I buy additional coins at $390 or at $430.      Hopefully your spreadsheet speaks la verdad.

[findftp]

In other words, it will NOT make a whole hell-a-va lot of difference if I buy additional coins at $390 or at $430.      Hopefully your spreadsheet speaks la verdad.

You should have been all in already! (like me)

[klee]

LOL da fake walls 

[touhonoob]

Bitcoin price now > 400$

[findftp]

Bitcoin price now > 400$

Is 400 your magic threshold number?

[edwardspitz]

It seems China was breaking down and dragging everyone with them. It is time for China to start following the west I think  

[cbeast]

Even though i sold half my btc at $380 last month if we hit $3k it would make enough of a difference to my long term FI goal that I could pretty much quit working on the spot.

Therefore i think it's unlikely as I am never that lucky

I thought that you were buying those coins back in the low $300s?  NOT enough cash flow to buy them all back?



By the way, trend reversal again, we are in the $300s... back to a bear market....   Fuck.. 

you were saying?

[JayJuanGee]

In other words, it will NOT make a whole hell-a-va lot of difference if I buy additional coins at $390 or at $430.      Hopefully your spreadsheet speaks la verdad.

You should have been all in already! (like me)

That failure to hesitate has pretty much been my blessing and my problem, at the same time.  I have been investing my spare money as it comes in and becomes available.  Accordingly, some of my money was either NOT available during the lowest prices, or for example, I bought coins at $360, $340, $320 and $300, so when coins were $270, I did NOT have much money left, though I did buy a couple BTC at $280....

Also, in May and June, I began to consider that the downward trend had reversed, and I pretty much doubled down at that time (even though I did keep a little bit of fiat available, i had pretty much gone in heavily in the upper $500 and lower $600 arena...

Then this week, I had more cash come in my direction, but yes, prices are $120 higher per BTC... than they were last week...  funny that...           

[empowering]

How long until we get back to 420?

I wanna put some raggae to play

Reggae Shark .. is the dreadlock rasta fish I am talking about

http://youtu.be/A3ytTKZf344

Reggae shark got noooo political agen-da

He just wants redemption-na

and he also wants Ganja

But you can't light a spliff when you live in da wat-ta

 

[JayJuanGee]

Even though i sold half my btc at $380 last month if we hit $3k it would make enough of a difference to my long term FI goal that I could pretty much quit working on the spot.

Therefore i think it's unlikely as I am never that lucky

I thought that you were buying those coins back in the low $300s?  NOT enough cash flow to buy them all back?



By the way, trend reversal again, we are in the $300s... back to a bear market....   Fuck.. 

you were saying?

I was just making an attempt at some light humor regarding a supposed trend reversal... I understand that trends do NOT change so easily.. or at least this particular trend is seemingly gonna be heading in the upward direction.... but I am NOT going to hold my breath.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

What if there is more to crypto than just pumping?    

[btcney]

What if there is more to crypto than just pumping?    

LOL