Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[micalith]

BFX swaps are turning around again

OCT   7: $18m USD || 10k BTC
OCT 10: $21m USD || 15k BTC
OCT 14: $22m USD || 11k BTC

I have suggested watching the hash rate to find the bottom.  Why?  Well, if miners start taking machines offline, it affects supply by reducing the coins mined to the normal 3600 daily or less.  But more importantly, it indicates the lowest price that miners must sell at to make a profit (of course every miner will have a slightly different level).  Any lower and miners must hold and hope for a price increase.  To sell would guarantee that they couldn't pay the monthly bills.  That behavior could dramatically affect supply.

It looks like we are at the point:

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty

This isn't a statistical artifact due to a bad luck streak?

Not gonna calculate it, but I'm going to guess its somewhere around 99% certainty that this isnt just random chance.

there was a similar very small difficulty increase in July, when the bitcoin price was relatively high

[ErisDiscordia]

406 wall eaten in one gulp

[fallinglantern]

[Plazma]

Choo Choo ShroomsKit. Its giving me great pleasure watching you lose money.

[Pala_00]

406 wall eaten in one gulp

lol in one gulp  

[btcney]

ShroomsKit going to miss the train 

[NotLambchop]

Please quote a single statement I have made you think is "wrong"
...
abortive rally

Answered your own question.

 

Lol, rally means going up, not peaking and flopping back down.  But you might have better luck in the future, looks like it's been "trending" up again for the last few hours
Hold on to your dreams!

[N12]

Is Shroomsy going to be ranting about "fucking idiot buyers" now?

[noobtrader]

ShroomsKit going to miss the train 

hush hush... did you hear that... i think shroomie is crying... 

[thezerg]

I have suggested watching the hash rate to find the bottom.  Why?  Well, if miners start taking machines offline, it affects supply by reducing the coins mined to the normal 3600 daily or less.  But more importantly, it indicates the lowest price that miners must sell at to make a profit (of course every miner will have a slightly different level).  Any lower and miners must hold and hope for a price increase.  To sell would guarantee that they couldn't pay the monthly bills.  That behavior could dramatically affect supply.

Won't there on average be 3600 coins mined daily regardless of hashing power? Not sure I understand this argument...

i think he meant that at certain level, miner will hoard instead of selling

No, hash rate changes every 2 weeks, but meanwhile mining capacity is being added or removed from the network.  So we got (IIRC) blocks every 7 minutes on average or (for example) about 4200 coins per day during the big mining rise.  Over the last 9 months the market has gotten used to these extra coins.  If we drop to steady hashing, 600 coins per day will have a cumulative effect.  Sure this is a LOT less then volume but remember the same coin is traded many times.  If the hash rate actually drops then for 2 weeks fewer than 3600 coins will be mined.

[derpinheimer]

haha gl to the shorters, you're gonna need it  

Tons of shorts opened ~350-375, and ~450.

Lots closed the last few days but you gotta feel for the poor souls who shorted at $275

(JK)

[thezerg]

I have suggested watching the hash rate to find the bottom.  Why?  Well, if miners start taking machines offline, it affects supply by reducing the coins mined to the normal 3600 daily or less.  But more importantly, it indicates the lowest price that miners must sell at to make a profit (of course every miner will have a slightly different level).  Any lower and miners must hold and hope for a price increase.  To sell would guarantee that they couldn't pay the monthly bills.  That behavior could dramatically affect supply.

It looks like we are at the point:

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty

its already known that at todays hasrate, at 0.1 usd per kwh electricity it cost 131 usd per bitcoin, that before the cost ROI of miner.

but yes 300 seem to be the bottom.

This is a theoretical calculation that does not take into account factors like rent, salaries, AC, and the variety of hashing hardware currently deployed.  Seeing the hash rate level off or even drop indicates the true level where a significant fraction of the least efficient hardware is being turned off.

[thezerg]

I have suggested watching the hash rate to find the bottom.  Why?  Well, if miners start taking machines offline, it affects supply by reducing the coins mined to the normal 3600 daily or less.  But more importantly, it indicates the lowest price that miners must sell at to make a profit (of course every miner will have a slightly different level).  Any lower and miners must hold and hope for a price increase.  To sell would guarantee that they couldn't pay the monthly bills.  That behavior could dramatically affect supply.

It looks like we are at the point:

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty

This isn't a statistical artifact due to a bad luck streak?

I'm not going to calculate it either, but the effect was actually visible 2 weeks ago.  I held off posting to eliminate statistical artifacts.

[Bittings]

Where's Adam... CannabisCoin pump in progress  

[Plazma]

BUY

[derpinheimer]

BUY

SHOTR! MAX LEVERAGE

[blatchcorn]

INSIDER TIP:

BUY

What did I say? 

[ErisDiscordia]

414 eaten in another gulp...we have a bear slayer on stamp, just keeps taking out those walls

[ShroomsKit]

It will stop before 420. There we go down again. 400 again within 2 hours. Down from there.

[micalith]

the 15min chart looks way too much like the last two bubbles. Loving this fractal shit