Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[noobtrader]

warfare is not gambling, warfare is an art... just ask SunTsu 

warfare is gambling if you dont know your enemy

Is gambling not also an art?

forbidden art  

surely, russian roullete is not an art

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[inca]

Hopefully we stay below 400 until next thursday.

Please stop quoting troll posts!

[octaft]

Note that people bid at auctions not to get coins at any cost, but to get coins at a good price.  If someone wants 10'000 coins, and he can get them off exchange for 300$/BTC, it makes no sense to bid for more than 300$/BTC, even if he expects that there may be higher bids.

Well you avoid slippage, and I imagine it would be less of a pain in the ass to buy them at the auction than it would be to trust these random exchanges with all that money and wait for bids to fill. I imagine that would make it so bids close to market would be feasible. Not so sure about bids that are slightly higher than market, and I'd say bids significantly higher than market probably should not be expected.

Sorry, by "get them off exchange" I meant "get them through a private over-the-counter deal (not at the exchanges)".  So, I expect that bids will be limited by the price that one could pay in an over-the-counter buy of the same size (unless an "irrational" rich bidder enters the auction).

I would think that the over-the-counter price for 10'000 is not much above the open market, otherwise arbitragers would promptly step in and equalize the prices.  For 50'000 coins, I would not dare to guess...

Ah, I misunderstood, thanks for clarifying. I would respond instead with it would be rather difficult to find someone willing to sell you this many coins over the counter in one go, so you're probably going to have to accumulate it over time, either buying some on exchanges anyway, or from spending time finding multiple OTC sellers. Might still be worth a small premium (or at least a price at or neat market) to get it all in one go for someone who really wants a large amount of BTC.

[NotLambchop]

warfare is not gambling, warfare is an art... just ask SunTsu 

warfare is gambling if you dont know your enemy

Is gambling not also an art?

Art is warfare.

[noobtrader]

warfare is not gambling, warfare is an art... just ask SunTsu 

warfare is gambling if you dont know your enemy

Is gambling not also an art?

Art is warfare.

[oda.krell]

As long as you enter each position with the expectation that you could lose everything, then I think you'll be fine.

What about STOP orders?

Not a fan personally.

I find they tend to get triggered at the least opportune times.

I agree. But getting stopped out halfway is better than getting margin called. And it makes it harder to loose "everything".

In warfare, the ones who are willing to lose the most have the advantage.

Winning a battle != winning the war

Agreed.

When you actively trade, you need to win those "battles"

Your stake depends on winning the battles.

When you make strategic investments, you are wagering on the eventual outcome.

It's just a different kind of bet.

Not sure I get the point. Trading vs. investing just changes the frequency with which trades are entered, and the basis on which you base your decision to enter them.

Trading without stop losses most certainly is no different from gambling at a roulette table. With stops and profit targets, it depends on whether you have a predictive edge over the market (which is easily answered to the negative in case you believe that to be impossible in principle ). Same for investing, however: without any edge, the proverbial dart throwing monkey performs just as well as you do.

[shmadz]

As long as you enter each position with the expectation that you could lose everything, then I think you'll be fine.

What about STOP orders?

Not a fan personally.

I find they tend to get triggered at the least opportune times.

I agree. But getting stopped out halfway is better than getting margin called. And it makes it harder to loose "everything".

In warfare, the ones who are willing to lose the most have the advantage.

Winning a battle != winning the war

Agreed.

When you actively trade, you need to win those "battles"

Your stake depends on winning the battles.

When you make strategic investments, you are wagering on the eventual outcome.

It's just a different kind of bet.

Not sure I get the point. Trading vs. investing just changes the frequency with which trades are entered, and the basis on which you base your decision to enter them.

Trading without stop losses most certainly is no different from gambling at a roulette table. With stops and profit targets, it depends on whether you have a predictive edge over the market (which is easily answered to the negative in case you believe that to be impossible in principle ). Same for investing, however: without any edge, the proverbial dart throwing monkey performs just as well as you do.

Thanks Oda, let me clarify.

As I understand it, Trading without a stop loss simply means that you cannot be forced out of your position without active participation.

Placing a stop effectively allows the trading platform, or bot, to automate the decision.

Personally, through my own testing, I've chosen to make my own decisions, because I suck at programming bots.

[bad trader]

Not sure what triggered this line touching. Low volume?

[noobtrader]

Not sure what triggered this line touching. Low volume?

testing bull support 


im dont know what to do, should i short few btc or stay...

[Richy_T]

In modern times, BTC instead of gold should do it. Funny that J.P. Morgan stated that back then...

That wasn't a statement, that was a game plan.

[oda.krell]

Thanks Oda, let me clarify.

As I understand it, Trading without a stop loss simply means that you cannot be forced out of your position without active participation.

Placing a stop effectively allows the trading platform, or bot, to automate the decision.

Personally, through my own testing, I've chosen to make my own decisions, because I suck at programming bots.

Completely agreed on the practical side of what you're saying. Especially if you're margin trading and stop hunting really becomes an issue, I suppose.

The problem is just that without a stop, your maximum loss is in principle 1 (of a position of size 1), so the Kelly criterion will usually whoop your ass unless you're pretty close to 100% sure you can't lose.

In practice, even if you don't set a hard stop, you probably have something like a stop in mind anyway, and I'm just being a pedant here


EDIT: Oh, understood it now. You mean, you don't have a stop order sitting on the exchange, while I thought you meant setting stop losses in general.

[bad trader]

Not sure what triggered this line touching. Low volume?

testing bull support 


im dont know what to do, should i short few btc or stay...

I have no idea. It's a good thing (for me) that I'm just waiting for this to crash for whatever reason.

[wachtwoord]

Not sure what triggered this line touching. Low volume?

testing bull support 


im dont know what to do, should i short few btc or stay...

I have no idea. It's a good thing (for me) that I'm just waiting for this to crash for whatever reason.

Never, EVER, short Bitcoin.

[wachtwoord]

In modern times, BTC instead of gold should do it. Funny that J.P. Morgan stated that back then...

This man understood what's what. Why do you think JP Morgan is still going strong?

[shmadz]

Thanks Oda, let me clarify.

As I understand it, Trading without a stop loss simply means that you cannot be forced out of your position without active participation.

Placing a stop effectively allows the trading platform, or bot, to automate the decision.

Personally, through my own testing, I've chosen to make my own decisions, because I suck at programming bots.

Completely agreed on the practical side of what you're saying. Especially if you're margin trading and stop hunting really becomes an issue, I suppose.

The problem is just that without a stop, your maximum loss is in principle 1 (of a position of size 1), so the Kelly criterion will usually whoop your ass unless you're pretty close to 100% sure you can't lose.

In practice, even if you don't set a hard stop, you probably have something like a stop in mind anyway, and I'm just being a pedant here


EDIT: Oh, understood it now. You mean, you don't have a stop order sitting on the exchange, while I thought you meant setting stop losses in general.

Precisely.

I just hope that "retail investors" fully understand the counter-party risk involved when you give control of your bitcoin to a third party.

[bad trader]

Not sure what triggered this line touching. Low volume?

testing bull support 


im dont know what to do, should i short few btc or stay...

I have no idea. It's a good thing (for me) that I'm just waiting for this to crash for whatever reason.

Never, EVER, short Bitcoin.

Yeah, it usually ends up badly for me. Recently because I stupidly panic buy at a loss. Not going to do that this time. (Not yet anyway. No, I'll wait for the top like always.)

[wachtwoord]

Not sure what triggered this line touching. Low volume?

testing bull support 


im dont know what to do, should i short few btc or stay...

I have no idea. It's a good thing (for me) that I'm just waiting for this to crash for whatever reason.

Never, EVER, short Bitcoin.

Yeah, it usually ends up badly for me. Recently because I stupidly panic buy at a loss. Not going to do that this time. (Not yet anyway. No, I'll wait for the top like always.)

Limited supply of something which could potentially be huge implies a risk that does not outweigh the possible gains of shorting.

[noobtrader]

Not sure what triggered this line touching. Low volume?

testing bull support  


im dont know what to do, should i short few btc or stay...

I have no idea. It's a good thing (for me) that I'm just waiting for this to crash for whatever reason.

Never, EVER, short Bitcoin.

Yeah, it usually ends up badly for me. Recently because I stupidly panic buy at a loss. Not going to do that this time. (Not yet anyway. No, I'll wait for the top like always.)

Limited supply of something which could potentially be huge implies a risk that does not outweigh the possible gains of shorting.

arrrrhhh i shorted 1  


let see what happen, i will left bid and hope for the best...

note @ self :  never sold at support, sold at resistance is good

[bad trader]

Not sure what triggered this line touching. Low volume?

testing bull support 


im dont know what to do, should i short few btc or stay...

I have no idea. It's a good thing (for me) that I'm just waiting for this to crash for whatever reason.

Never, EVER, short Bitcoin.

Yeah, it usually ends up badly for me. Recently because I stupidly panic buy at a loss. Not going to do that this time. (Not yet anyway. No, I'll wait for the top like always.)

Limited supply of something which could potentially be huge implies a risk that does not outweigh the possible gains of shorting.

But in a bear market, wouldn't the loss of potential gains of something in a limited supply outweight the risk of not shorting? Wait.. what?! %-)