Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[njcarlos]

NotLambchop, in all seriousness and with no disrespectful intent, what is your purpose for being here? There are a lot of bear trolls, but you're the only one who's consistently here almost 24/7.

Also, even though I might be able to surmise this from your answer to the question above, what's your feeling on Bitcoin in general? Do you believe it's a pyramid scheme? Do you just believe it's overvalued? If so, what do you value it? Etc. I'd love to know...

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[cbeast]

I love the poll this week. It's like leaving a 7-10 split.

[redsn0w]

Plz continue losing money for our amusement.

I'm not losing nothing , be patient .
...

Yeah, the old "you don't lose unless you sell" ridiculousness.
I have a foolproof investment opportunity for you, the NotLambchop Toilet Investments LTD.  I'm telling you that you will make money.
To invest, here's what you do:

1. Carefully deposit money into your toilet.
2. Flush.
3. Flush again.
4. Never sell.
5. ? ? ?
6. PROFIT!

Since there is a chance [no matter how infinitesimal] that I am not lying, and there's no chance of you losing any money by following my ingenious plan, why not invest

I just told you I'm not losing nothing , but you don't understand .

Is there an adult near you who I could talk to, or are you alone in the house?

I told you I'm not losing nothing , because I didn't invest nothing .


Please be an adult person.

[njcarlos]

I love the poll this week. It's like leaving a 7-10 split.

<370 would have been right had there not been mass deletions.

[JayJuanGee]

... it is very likely that Draper paid well over $650 for those coins... maybe even closer to $700 per BTC.

Or even a million dollars...

Well played!

What is so well played about it?  Are you a dufus, also?       

One million dollar jokes are universally funny... and frankly, I'm surprised one of the fanatics didn't say it in sincerity. It was well played... just a humorous comment.

Ok... fine.. NO problem with finding humor in various comments.


On the other hand, there are some serious discussions about $1 million dollar BTC scenarios, which assumes that BTC would reach about a $14 trillion market cap.  A $14 trillion market cap is NOT totally outlandish, even though it may be a stretch of a scenario and it assumes that bitcoin would be able to surplant various storage of values and/or currencies and/or money transmission mechanisms.  Maybe such price escalations will NOT happen and maybe such price escalations are NOT in BTC cards, but they surely are feasible and NOT an outrageous joke.


In this regard:  Bitcoin's current market cap is about $5 billion

Let's assume about 14 million coins for the near future.

If BTC prices were $1k, then market cap would be $14 billion

If BTC prices were $10k, then market cap would be $140 billion

If BTC prices were $100k, then market cap would be $1.4 trillion

If BTC prices were $1million, then market cap would be $14 trillion

[cbeast]

... it is very likely that Draper paid well over $650 for those coins... maybe even closer to $700 per BTC.

Or even a million dollars...

Well played!

What is so well played about it?  Are you a dufus, also?       

One million dollar jokes are universally funny... and frankly, I'm surprised one of the fanatics didn't say it in sincerity. It was well played... just a humorous comment.

And everyone in the universe has used it already. It was as well played as any cliché.
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[podyx]

[njcarlos]

Hah!

[JayJuanGee]

Miners are NOT dumping bitcoin.  Miners are generally bullish about bitcoin and generally holders.

Is there any evidence for that claim (other than some big miners saying so)?

Surely some miners are making such statements, and you should already realize that you do NOT need a lot of coins in order to manipulate prices downward.  If someone has 10k coins, then s/he it can accomplish a lot of BTC price manipulation. 

Miners dumping is NOT a logical conclusion, it is FUD spreading.. even though you, Jorge, seem to be inclined to participate in the spread of any FUD whenever you can.

[JayJuanGee]

NotLambchop, in all seriousness and with no disrespectful intent, what is your purpose for being here? There are a lot of bear trolls, but you're the only one who's consistently here almost 24/7.

Also, even though I might be able to surmise this from your answer to the question above, what's your feeling on Bitcoin in general? Do you believe it's a pyramid scheme? Do you just believe it's overvalued? If so, what do you value it? Etc. I'd love to know...

His/her it's purpose here is to distract us from having meaningful communications about bitcoin.. and to constantly distract from the conversation to interfere..

Just look up the definition of troll, and NOT not pork fits such definition.

[njcarlos]

you do NOT need a lot of coins in order to manipulate prices downward

What do you consider "a lot?"

[cbeast]

[NotLambchop]

NotLambchop, in all seriousness and with no disrespectful intent, what is your purpose for being here? There are a lot of bear trolls, but you're the only one who's consistently here almost 24/7.

Also, even though I might be able to surmise this from your answer to the question above, what's your feeling on Bitcoin in general? Do you believe it's a pyramid scheme? Do you just believe it's overvalued? If so, what do you value it? Etc. I'd love to know...

I'm here because I speculate in Bitcoin.  I have repeated this so many times that I find it hard to believe you can't remember any of them.
Even with my understanding of the average mental state and capacity of the posters in this thread.

Re. "pyramid scheme," here's an abbridged definition from wikip:
"A pyramid scheme is an unsustainable business model that involves promising participants payment or services, primarily for enrolling other people into the scheme, rather than supplying any real investment or sale of products or services to the public."

The operative word here is "promises," of which Bitcoin makes none.  So the short answer is NO.

I hope this helps, but that hope is being tried each time I have to repost this

[Torque]

2014 = super shit because Joe Public is scared shitless of bitcoin
2015 = slow steady rise out of the swamp because Joe Public starts to change their negative opinion of bitcoin
2016 = new highs again, but not done frantically, just gently because Joe Public actually starts to give a shit about bitcoin for the first time in history
end of 2016 = block reward halves, sparks new 5k-10k territory because Joe Public decides bitcoin is awesome and will buy it at any price.  But god only knows how and why this paradigm shift will happen.

Is one possible outcome.....

Added a couple of details for ya...

[hdbuck]

[JayJuanGee]

you do NOT need a lot of coins in order to manipulate prices downward

What do you consider "a lot?"

Didn't I use 10k coins in my description in the post that you cut.

Further, some of these guys who want to manipulate the price of BTC downward are going to be willing to dump at a loss for an extended period of time to achieve their objectives.  They can continue to buy high and to sell low in order to dump strategically and to lose money and to scare people off of bitcoin because they dump strategically.

10k coins may be sufficient to manipulate for a month or so; however, 100k coins would be even better, and probably could manipulate for more than 6 months with 100k coins.

[njcarlos]

I'm here because I speculate in Bitcoin.  I have repeated this so many times that I find it hard to believe you can't remember any of them.
Even with my understanding of the average mental state and capacity of the posters in this thread.

Re. "pyramid scheme," here's an abbridged definition from wikip:
"A pyramid scheme is an unsustainable business model that involves promising participants payment or services, primarily for enrolling other people into the scheme, rather than supplying any real investment or sale of products or services to the public."

The operative word here is "promises," of which Bitcoin makes none.  So the short answer is NO.

I hope this helps, but that hope is being tried each time I have to repost this

The assumption is that I've seen it to remember. Which is false. Also that definition of a pyramid scheme is quite narrow... if the community at large involved with a particular asset are making promises, it would typically hold as much weight as a central figure in a narrowly defined "business" environment, due to group think.

So you speculate in bitcoin, you don't think it's a pyramid scheme, but really failed to elaborate beyond yet another assumption that something on Wikipedia is an absolute/definitive source of information. What is your broader opinion of Bitcoin?

[spooderman]

Who is this Joe Public? And why do you have such a low opinion of him?

[njcarlos]

you do NOT need a lot of coins in order to manipulate prices downward

What do you consider "a lot?"

Didn't I use 10k coins in my description in the post that you cut.

Further, some of these guys who want to manipulate the price of BTC downward are going to be willing to dump at a loss for an extended period of time to achieve their objectives.  They can continue to buy high and to sell low in order to dump strategically and to lose money and to scare people off of bitcoin because they dump strategically.

10k coins may be sufficient to manipulate for a month or so; however, 100k coins would be even better, and probably could manipulate for more than 6 months with 100k coins.

So 10k coins isn't "a lot" to you. Ok.

Edit: To be clear, I asked you what is a lot, not what isn't a lot.

[JorgeStolfi]

Miners are NOT dumping bitcoin.  Miners are generally bullish about bitcoin and generally holders.

Is there any evidence for that claim (other than some big miners saying so)?

Surely some miners are making such statements, and you should already realize that you do NOT need a lot of coins in order to manipulate prices downward.  If someone has 10k coins, then s/he it can accomplish a lot of BTC price manipulation. 

Miners dumping is NOT a logical conclusion,

In short, the answer is "no, there is no evidence that miners are holding".

However, I agree that dumping by miners, by itself, does not explain the fall from ~900$ in late january to ~350$ today.  Inflation due to mining is only 10% per year. 

That inflation may be amplified by the fact that part of the bitcoin supply is frozen by long-term holders.  Namely, if only 1/5 of the bitcoins are in the hands of short-term speculators, and all the mining output is being dumped to the open market, then the effective inflation would be around 50% per year.  Even so, it seems hard to blame the slump on miners dumping.

To me, the simplest explanation still is: the Chinese speculators are leaving the market.