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Author Topic: Casascius issues - Dollar Premium estimates - all in one place....  (Read 1432 times)
davidgdg
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February 22, 2017, 03:38:28 PM
 #1

THIS IS VERSION 1. FOR LATER VERSIONS SEE BELOW.

In order to avoid the confusion caused by fluctuations in BTC values, I thought it might be useful to compile a list of numismatic dollar premium estimates for known Casasciuss issues. In other words, the premium excluding the BTC value.  I have taken issue details from the  very helpful Spotcoin list (http://www.spotcoins.com/bitcoin/casascius). Comments/suggested valuations are all based on the coin still being funded. All comments/suggestions welcome.

Some general remarks. In numismatics, critical factors are: (1) condition (2) face value (as a broad rule, higher demoninations tend to command a higher premium) (3) scarcity (4) other features affecting desirability such as historical importance, errors, material (silver and gold more desirable). I have tried to apply these considerations in my guestimates below. One thing which I have not taken into account is funding date. First funded coins in any series may command a further premium.

Please feel free to rip into me and tell me that my suggested valuations are ridiculously low or high. That is the whole point of this thread: to try and get some sense via community input of where the premiums ought to be.



0.1 BTC Silver
2013
Funded 800
Redeemed 8
Active 792

Fairly scarce. At a guess I would say these should command something like a US$ 200 premium over the BTC content.

0.5 BTC Brass
2013
Funded 3055
Redeemed 139
Active 2916

Relatively common. US$ 150


0.5 BTC Silver, Series-2
2013
Funded 45
Redeemed 0
Active 45

Extremely rare. Must be be close to US$ 1,000 and perhaps more I would have thought.

0.5 BTC Silver, Series-3
2013
Funded 885
Redeemed 1
Active 884

Scarce. US$ 500.

1.0 BTC Brass, Series-1
2011
Funded 5993
Redeemed 892
Active 5101

Common but highly desirable because of the error. US$ 500 to US$ 1,000. This coins ought to be the easiest one to put a dollar premium on.

1.0 BTC Brass, Series-2 (2011)
2011
Funded 516
Redeemed 82
Active 434

Scarce but less desirable than the error issue. US$ 400-500 ?

1.0 BTC Brass, Series-2 (2012)
2012
Funded 6740
Redeemed 821
Active 5919

Common. US$ 300.

1.0 BTC Brass, Series-2 (2013)
2013
Funded 5407
Redeemed 297
Active 5110

Common. US$ 300.

1.0 BTC All-Silver
2013
Funded 1300
Redeemed 8
Active 1292

Scarce. US$750

1.0 BTC Silver with Gold Trim
2013
Funded 483
Redeemed 1
Active 482

Very scarce and desirable. US$ 1,000-US$ 1,500.

5 BTC, Series-1
2012
Funded 670
Redeemd 80
Active 590

Scarce. US$ 1,500.

5 BTC, Series-2
2012
Funded 572
Redeemed 123
Active 449

Scarce. US$ 1,500.


10 BTC, All-Silver
2012
Funded 250
Redeemed 35
Active 215

Rare. US$ 2,000

10 BTC, Silver with Gold Trim
2012
Funded 242
Redeemed 16
Active 226

Rare. US$ 2,000

25 BTC, Series-1
2011
Funded 338
Redeemed 132
Active 206

Rare. Hard to value the premium as the face value is already so high. Say US$ 5,000?

25 BTC, Series-2
2011
Funded 472
Redeemed 117
Active 355

Ditto. Rare. Hard to value the premium as the face value is already so high. Say US$ 5,000?


1000 BTC 1oz Gold
2012
Funded 5
Redeemed 2
Active 3

Impossible to value in the absence of any reported sales and in light of the very high face value.

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February 22, 2017, 03:45:43 PM
 #2

In order to avoid the confusion caused by fluctuations in BTC values, I thought it might be useful to compile a list of numismatic dollar premium estimates for known Casasciuss issues. In other words, the premium excluding the BTC value.  I have taken issue details from the  very helpful Spotcoin list (http://www.spotcoins.com/bitcoin/casascius). Comments/suggested valuations are all based on the coin still being funded. All comments/suggestions welcome.

Some general remarks. In numismatics, critical factors are: (1) condition (2) face value (as a broad rule, higher demoninations tend to command a higher premium) (3) scarcity (4) other features affecting desirability such as historical importance, errors, material (silver and gold more desirable). I have tried to apply these considerations in my guestimates below. One thing which I have not taken into account is funding date. First funded coins in any series may command a further premium.

Please feel free to rip into me and tell me that my suggested valuations are ridiculously low or high. That is the whole point of this thread: to try and get some sense via community input of where the premiums ought to be.

Spotcoin list.... I wish people would stop using this.
While it is a good "general" guide, it misses much.


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AT101ET
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February 22, 2017, 04:11:53 PM
 #3

There is no set premium. These premiums depend on numerous factors that include but are not limited to: supply/demand, if the coin is graded, coin grade, coin condition, PGP key availability, price of BTC and etc.
The point is that there is no fixed premium per coin and trying to document it won't really yield accurate results.



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February 22, 2017, 04:14:06 PM
 #4

There is no set premium. These premiums depend on numerous factors that include but are not limited to: supply/demand, if the coin is graded, coin grade, coin condition, PGP key availability, price of BTC and etc.
The point is that there is no fixed premium per coin and trying to document it won't really yield accurate results.

+1

...if anything it could end up with misleading information as there are lots of factors to consider.


 
 
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February 22, 2017, 04:40:49 PM
 #5

I would buy half the coins in the list if i get them at that price over face value!

The market isn't dependent and they do not have any fix value on it!
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February 22, 2017, 04:45:46 PM
 #6

I would buy half the coins in the list if i get them at that price over face value!

The market isn't dependent and they do not have any fix value on it!
+1

especially the 0.5 BTC Silver, Series-2  Kiss

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February 22, 2017, 06:17:47 PM
 #7

beatiful thread ... thanks for this information  Wink

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February 22, 2017, 06:24:36 PM
 #8

wonder where are all the redeemed 10btc coins at i only seen one for sale
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February 22, 2017, 06:40:31 PM
 #9

I know this information isn't going to be completely accurate since the market price of things can move fast, but it is still very helpful for a rough estimate. Thank you.

davidgdg
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February 22, 2017, 07:13:15 PM
 #10

I would buy half the coins in the list if i get them at that price over face value!

The market isn't dependent and they do not have any fix value on it!

Not sure how best the thread should be edited, but please do insert some alternative suggested figures. I did wonder whether some of my estimates were on the low side !

"There is only one thing that is seriously morally wrong with the world, and that is politics. By 'politics' I mean all that, and only what, involves the State." Jan Lester "Escape from Leviathan"
davidgdg
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February 22, 2017, 07:15:32 PM
 #11

There is no set premium. These premiums depend on numerous factors that include but are not limited to: supply/demand, if the coin is graded, coin grade, coin condition, PGP key availability, price of BTC and etc.
The point is that there is no fixed premium per coin and trying to document it won't really yield accurate results.

Of course I agree. But the same is true for all numismatic coins. Even very rough ranges might be helpful to both buyers and sellers.

"There is only one thing that is seriously morally wrong with the world, and that is politics. By 'politics' I mean all that, and only what, involves the State." Jan Lester "Escape from Leviathan"
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February 22, 2017, 07:20:12 PM
 #12

In order to avoid the confusion caused by fluctuations in BTC values, I thought it might be useful to compile a list of numismatic dollar premium estimates for known Casasciuss issues. In other words, the premium excluding the BTC value.  I have taken issue details from the  very helpful Spotcoin list (http://www.spotcoins.com/bitcoin/casascius). Comments/suggested valuations are all based on the coin still being funded. All comments/suggestions welcome.

Some general remarks. In numismatics, critical factors are: (1) condition (2) face value (as a broad rule, higher demoninations tend to command a higher premium) (3) scarcity (4) other features affecting desirability such as historical importance, errors, material (silver and gold more desirable). I have tried to apply these considerations in my guestimates below. One thing which I have not taken into account is funding date. First funded coins in any series may command a further premium.

Please feel free to rip into me and tell me that my suggested valuations are ridiculously low or high. That is the whole point of this thread: to try and get some sense via community input of where the premiums ought to be.

Spotcoin list.... I wish people would stop using this.
While it is a good "general" guide, it misses much.

All corrections very welcome :-)

"There is only one thing that is seriously morally wrong with the world, and that is politics. By 'politics' I mean all that, and only what, involves the State." Jan Lester "Escape from Leviathan"
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February 22, 2017, 07:26:53 PM
 #13

Corrections below:

In order to avoid the confusion caused by fluctuations in BTC values, I thought it might be useful to compile a list of numismatic dollar premium estimates for known Casasciuss issues. In other words, the premium excluding the BTC value.  I have taken issue details from the  very helpful Spotcoin list (http://www.spotcoins.com/bitcoin/casascius). Comments/suggested valuations are all based on the coin still being funded. All comments/suggestions welcome.

Some general remarks. In numismatics, critical factors are: (1) condition (2) face value (as a broad rule, higher demoninations tend to command a higher premium) (3) scarcity (4) other features affecting desirability such as historical importance, errors, material (silver and gold more desirable). I have tried to apply these considerations in my guestimates below. One thing which I have not taken into account is funding date. First funded coins in any series may command a further premium.

Please feel free to rip into me and tell me that my suggested valuations are ridiculously low or high. That is the whole point of this thread: to try and get some sense via community input of where the premiums ought to be.



0.1 BTC Silver
2013
Funded 800
Redeemed 8
Active 792

Fairly scarce. At a guess I would say these should command something like a US$ 200 premium over the BTC content.

Looking at recent auction results on this forum, the premium is more like US$350 to 500

0.5 BTC Brass
2013
Funded 3055
Redeemed 139
Active 2916

Relatively common. US$ 150


0.5 BTC Silver, Series-2
2013
Funded 45
Redeemed 0
Active 45

Extremely rare. Must be be close to US$ 1,000 and perhaps more I would have thought.

0.5 BTC Silver, Series-3
2013
Funded 885
Redeemed 1
Active 884

Scarce. US$ 500.

1.0 BTC Brass, Series-1
2011
Funded 5993
Redeemed 892
Active 5101

Common but highly desirable because of the error. US$ 500 to US$ 1,000. This coins ought to be the easiest one to put a dollar premium on.

1.0 BTC Brass, Series-2 (2011)
2011
Funded 516
Redeemed 82
Active 434

Scarce but less desirable than the error issue. US$ 400-500 ?

1.0 BTC Brass, Series-2 (2012)
2012
Funded 6740
Redeemed 821
Active 5919

Common. US$ 300.

1.0 BTC Brass, Series-2 (2013)
2013
Funded 5407
Redeemed 297
Active 5110

Common. US$ 300.

1.0 BTC All-Silver
2013
Funded 1300
Redeemed 8
Active 1292

Scarce. US$750

1.0 BTC Silver with Gold Trim
2013
Funded 483
Redeemed 1
Active 482

Very scarce and desirable. US$ 1,000-US$ 1,500.

5 BTC, Series-1
2012
Funded 670
Redeemd 80
Active 590

Scarce. US$ 1,500.

5 BTC, Series-2
2012
Funded 572
Redeemed 123
Active 449

Scarce. US$ 1,500.


10 BTC, All-Silver
2012
Funded 250
Redeemed 35
Active 215

Rare. US$ 2,000

10 BTC, Silver with Gold Trim
2012
Funded 242
Redeemed 16
Active 226

Rare. US$ 2,000

25 BTC, Series-1
2011
Funded 338
Redeemed 132
Active 206

Rare. Hard to value the premium as the face value is already so high. Say US$ 5,000?

25 BTC, Series-2
2011
Funded 472
Redeemed 117
Active 355

Ditto. Rare. Hard to value the premium as the face value is already so high. Say US$ 5,000?


1000 BTC 1oz Gold
2012
Funded 5
Redeemed 2
Active 3

Impossible to value in the absence of any reported sales and in light of the very high face value.


"There is only one thing that is seriously morally wrong with the world, and that is politics. By 'politics' I mean all that, and only what, involves the State." Jan Lester "Escape from Leviathan"
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February 22, 2017, 07:31:34 PM
 #14

I thought Goat sold his 1000BTC bar for 1M?

Furthermore, the premium for the 25 BTC, 10 BTC and 5 BTC should be higher I think.

There is no set premium. These premiums depend on numerous factors that include but are not limited to: supply/demand, if the coin is graded, coin grade, coin condition, PGP key availability, price of BTC and etc.
The point is that there is no fixed premium per coin and trying to document it won't really yield accurate results.

Dont forget, date it what funded. A 2011 coin could be funded in 2013 making it just slightly less desirable opposed to a 2011 one.
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February 22, 2017, 07:33:53 PM
 #15

VERSION 2

In order to avoid the confusion caused by fluctuations in BTC values, I thought it might be useful to compile a list of numismatic dollar premium estimates for known Casasciuss issues. In other words, the premium excluding the BTC value.  I have taken issue details from the  very helpful Spotcoin list (http://www.spotcoins.com/bitcoin/casascius). Comments/suggested valuations are all based on the coin still being funded. All comments/suggestions welcome.

Some general remarks. In numismatics, critical factors are: (1) condition (2) face value (as a broad rule, higher demoninations tend to command a higher premium) (3) scarcity (4) other features affecting desirability such as historical importance, errors, material (silver and gold more desirable). I have tried to apply these considerations in my guestimates below. One thing which I have not taken into account is funding date. First funded coins in any series may command a further premium.

Please feel free to rip into me and tell me that my suggested valuations are ridiculously low or high. That is the whole point of this thread: to try and get some sense via community input of where the premiums ought to be.

NB All figures assume coins in good but not perfect condition i.e. UK grade good extremely fine  / US grade MS64 - very slight wear visible on close inspection. Better coins will command higher premiums (and vice versa)



0.1 BTC Silver
2013
Funded 800
Redeemed 8
Active 792

Fairly scarce. At a guess I would say these should command something like a US$ 200 premium over the BTC content.

Looking at recent auction results on this forum, the premium is more like US$350 to 500

0.5 BTC Brass
2013
Funded 3055
Redeemed 139
Active 2916

Relatively common. US$ 150 200


0.5 BTC Silver, Series-2
2013
Funded 45
Redeemed 0
Active 45

Extremely rare. Must be be close to US$ 1,000 and perhaps more I would have thought.

0.5 BTC Silver, Series-3
2013
Funded 885
Redeemed 1
Active 884

Scarce. US$ 500.

1.0 BTC Brass, Series-1
2011
Funded 5993
Redeemed 892
Active 5101

Common but highly desirable because of the error. US$ 500 to US$ 1,000. This coins ought to be the easiest one to put a dollar premium on.

1.0 BTC Brass, Series-2 (2011)
2011
Funded 516
Redeemed 82
Active 434

Scarce but less desirable than the error issue. US$ 400-500 ?

1.0 BTC Brass, Series-2 (2012)
2012
Funded 6740
Redeemed 821
Active 5919

Common. US$ 300.

1.0 BTC Brass, Series-2 (2013)
2013
Funded 5407
Redeemed 297
Active 5110

Common. US$ 300.

1.0 BTC All-Silver
2013
Funded 1300
Redeemed 8
Active 1292

Scarce. US$750

1.0 BTC Silver with Gold Trim
2013
Funded 483
Redeemed 1
Active 482

Very scarce and desirable. US$ 1,000-US$ 1,500.

5 BTC, Series-1
2012
Funded 670
Redeemd 80
Active 590

Scarce. US$ 1,500-2000.

5 BTC, Series-2
2012
Funded 572
Redeemed 123
Active 449

Scarce. US$ 1,500-2,000.


10 BTC, All-Silver
2012
Funded 250
Redeemed 35
Active 215

Rare. US$ 2,000

10 BTC, Silver with Gold Trim
2012
Funded 242
Redeemed 16
Active 226

Rare. US$ 2,000

25 BTC, Series-1
2011
Funded 338
Redeemed 132
Active 206

Rare. Hard to value the premium as the face value is already so high. Say US$ 5,000?

25 BTC, Series-2
2011
Funded 472
Redeemed 117
Active 355

Ditto. Rare. Hard to value the premium as the face value is already so high. Say US$ 5,000?


1000 BTC 1oz Gold
2012
Funded 5
Redeemed 2
Active 3

Impossible to value in the absence of any reported sales and in light of the very high face value.

[/quote]

"There is only one thing that is seriously morally wrong with the world, and that is politics. By 'politics' I mean all that, and only what, involves the State." Jan Lester "Escape from Leviathan"
Lincoln6Echo
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February 22, 2017, 07:36:18 PM
 #16

For example those 2011 error Coins. The mintage might be on the higher range but because bitcoin value was so low at that time those coins were not treated very well although they have the most historic value. So it is might be easy to find one of those coins but finding one in nearly mint conditions is difficult.

This explains the high premium for an Error Coin in good conditions. So stating a general premium for those coins ist pointless imho.

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davidgdg
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February 22, 2017, 07:37:49 PM
 #17

I thought Goat sold his 1000BTC bar for 1M?

Furthermore, the premium for the 25 BTC, 10 BTC and 5 BTC should be higher I think.

There is no set premium. These premiums depend on numerous factors that include but are not limited to: supply/demand, if the coin is graded, coin grade, coin condition, PGP key availability, price of BTC and etc.
The point is that there is no fixed premium per coin and trying to document it won't really yield accurate results.

Dont forget, date it what funded. A 2011 coin could be funded in 2013 making it just slightly less desirable opposed to a 2011 one.

1M for 1000 BTC would be a negative premium!

Re. the 25BTC, I'm not sure that you could justify more than a US$ 5,000 premium. They are scarce but not extremely rare.  That said, if you can point to an auction .....

Not sure about the 10 and 5s so I'll leave it for the moment.

I agree that funding dates make some difference but as I said in the original post, I am disregarding that. It just gets too complicated!

 


"There is only one thing that is seriously morally wrong with the world, and that is politics. By 'politics' I mean all that, and only what, involves the State." Jan Lester "Escape from Leviathan"
davidgdg
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February 22, 2017, 07:41:54 PM
 #18

For example those 2011 error Coins. The mintage might be on the higher range but because bitcoin value was so low at that time those coins were not treated very well although they have the most historic value. So it is might be easy to find one of those coins but finding one in nearly mint conditions is difficult.

This explains the high premium for an Error Coin in good conditions. So stating a general premium for those coins ist pointless imho.

I agree that condition will make a difference (like any coins). I did state a range to try to allow for that, but of course to do the job properly you would need to give estimates for each issue for all grades. But I'll edit the post to make it clear that the premiums assume good but not perfect condition and that pristine coins will command a higher premium. 

 

"There is only one thing that is seriously morally wrong with the world, and that is politics. By 'politics' I mean all that, and only what, involves the State." Jan Lester "Escape from Leviathan"
klondike_bar
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February 22, 2017, 07:43:05 PM
 #19

I thought Goat sold his 1000BTC bar for 1M?

Furthermore, the premium for the 25 BTC, 10 BTC and 5 BTC should be higher I think.

There is no set premium. These premiums depend on numerous factors that include but are not limited to: supply/demand, if the coin is graded, coin grade, coin condition, PGP key availability, price of BTC and etc.
The point is that there is no fixed premium per coin and trying to document it won't really yield accurate results.

Dont forget, date it what funded. A 2011 coin could be funded in 2013 making it just slightly less desirable opposed to a 2011 one.

1M for 1000 BTC would be a negative premium!

if i recall, that sale was in early 2014 when price was around $750/BTC

24" PCI-E cables with 16AWG wires and stripped ends - great for server PSU mods, best prices https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563461 also selling 6" M-F-M PCIe splitters and PCIe-PCIe
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Lincoln6Echo
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February 22, 2017, 07:48:22 PM
 #20

I thought Goat sold his 1000BTC bar for 1M?

Furthermore, the premium for the 25 BTC, 10 BTC and 5 BTC should be higher I think.

There is no set premium. These premiums depend on numerous factors that include but are not limited to: supply/demand, if the coin is graded, coin grade, coin condition, PGP key availability, price of BTC and etc.
The point is that there is no fixed premium per coin and trying to document it won't really yield accurate results.

Dont forget, date it what funded. A 2011 coin could be funded in 2013 making it just slightly less desirable opposed to a 2011 one.

1M for 1000 BTC would be a negative premium!

if i recall, that sale was in early 2014 when price was around $750/BTC


That's what I call a nice premium!  Cool Grin

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