Here comes the bitcoin crash!

[dday]

I'm a huge fan of bitcoin and it's future.  However the value has increased by like 300,000+ percent in less than a year...so if you think it will keep going up in the short-term you are crazy.  I'm waiting to get in, but getting in at around $20 is crazy...my guess is it will be closer to $5 before it ever sees $25.  Have you ever seen this quote from Warren Buffett?  "Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." -- I would say right now is the time people should be fearful.

Also - I do not believe that Allinvain really had 25,000 bitcoins stolen....my conspiracy theory is he works for the US Government and this is an attempt to try to scare people from buying into the bitcoin concept and to destabilize the currency.  I also believe that it will be illegal within a few years in the untied states to buy/accept bitcoins.  Something like this taking off is one of their worst nightmares!  The US Government likes to control us like we are Sims, if they lose control of our money, they will be less able to control our lives.

I think more needs to be done in the bitcoin community to launch more sites/services that accept bitcoins as payments.  I plan to start a site selling iPads and cool shit and I will only accept bitcoins.  It's encouraging to see Wikileaks interested in now receiving bitcoin donations.  I don't think you will see any major retailers accept bitcoin anytime soon as they will be scared they are getting into something that may become illegal...so I think it will be up to the bitcoin community to help make bitcoin more mainstream by opening more bitcoin retail shops.

[nhodges]

Something else Warren Buffet said: "Be greedy while others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy."

Take that to mean what you will.

[joepie91]

That something skyrockets does not mean it's automatically a bubble. While the rate of new Bitcoins flowing into the system stays the same, the massive media attention lately has caused a lot of "newcomers", of which a large part will probably at least stick around to some degree. It's only natural for the value to shoot up. Stable supply + skyrocketing demand = skyrocketing value.

[SgtSpike]

Something else Warren Buffet said: "Be greedy while others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy."

Take that to mean what you will.

That's what I was thinking... I see a lot more fear than greed in forum posts lately, and the OP's post only goes to prove my point.  So the solution?  Time to be greedy!

[bittersweet]

You are lucky I am here, providing professional technical analysis for the benefit of the community.

http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/1860/lolwj.gif

http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/3157/lines.gif

If you want me to start a blog, donate.

[dday]

I just think it went up so fast because of all of the media attention...so I would expect it's only natural to see a major correction in the next week.  

Also, would it be possible for say the US Government (or someone else) to buy all of the bitcoins they can since there are only around 6 million in existence and then they would become the market makers?  I mean it would be great if someone did that because they wanted to embrace the technology...but if someone who wants to fight it/destroy it - does it...couldn't that be another risk?

[datnoidpoop]

haha, there will always be posts about ____ crashing. how often is it true?

[dday]

You are lucky I am here, providing professional technical analysis for the benefit of the community.

http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/1860/lolwj.gif

http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/3157/lines.gif

If you want me to start a blog, donate.

@bittersweet - I do like your charts and I will donate as soon as I pick up my first round of bitcoins at $10 next week.

[joepie91]

I just think it went up so fast because of all of the media attention...so I would expect it's only natural to see a major correction in the next week.  

Also, would it be possible for say the US Government (or someone else) to buy all of the bitcoins they can since there are only around 6 million in existence and then they would become the market makers?  I mean it would be great if someone did that because they wanted to embrace the technology...but if someone who wants to fight it/destroy it - does it...couldn't that be another risk?

Well, can you imagine what the last Bitcoin owner is going to charge for his last bitcoin?

My point being, you can only buy Bitcoins if they are for sale.

[Slab Squathrust]

haha, there will always be posts about ____ crashing. how often is it true?

This is the truth.  A 300% increase in price does not necessarily mean bubble.  These types of run ups are often seen in stocks with a low market cap.  Just the nature of few trades allows for huge volatility.

[bentov]

So I guess you only invest in bonds, and don't have a 401k, 403b or anything like; and I guess you have never gambled before as well?  Everything that goes up, goes down and vice-versa.  You just have to be intelligent enough to do the analysis to make you sure you make money and don't loose it.  The intelligent investor knows to diversify, and why should investing in bitcoins be any different?

[v19c]

Should you make a loss, is it able to be written off in the tax return?

[datnoidpoop]

bitcoin bonds.......... 

[done]

I wonder why so many people with a few posts come on the forum and say a crash is coming

[dutt]

The media attention causes people to sign up and get into bitcoin, the falling prices indicate a crash.

[supahlovah]

The media attention causes people to sign up and get into bitcoin, the falling prices indicate a crash.

People sign up means people want bitcoins means demand is up, mean price goes up.

[v19c]

Looking at the all time chart at Mt Gox, there is a large spike in line with the media coverage dates of SR. SR is currently offline and there has be a drop since that time. Not looking to get flamed on this but the data is there.

[Friskynet]

As a newbie who just heard about bitcoins on a pod cast ( Buzz out loud ), I too want to get into them but @ $18+ makes me cautious. I personally think there is a lot of hype going around and the short attention span of the internet will cause prices to stabilise sooner rather than later.

[joepie91]

As a newbie who just heard about bitcoins on a pod cast ( Buzz out loud ), I too want to get into them but @ $18+ makes me cautious. I personally think there is a lot of hype going around and the short attention span of the internet will cause prices to stabilise sooner rather than later.

A number doesn't mean anything. It could be 1800$ per BTC as well, and all that would mean would be that you'd shift some decimal places.

1 = 1 (parity) is nothing more than a psychological waypoint. The value itself does not say anything, the change of the value over time does.

[SgtSpike]

As a newbie who just heard about bitcoins on a pod cast ( Buzz out loud ), I too want to get into them but @ $18+ makes me cautious. I personally think there is a lot of hype going around and the short attention span of the internet will cause prices to stabilise sooner rather than later.

A number doesn't mean anything. It could be 1800$ per BTC as well, and all that would mean would be that you'd shift some decimal places.

1 = 1 (parity) is nothing more than a psychological waypoint. The value itself does not say anything, the change of the value over time does.

Unfortunately for bitcoins, psychological waypoints, as you like to call them, can be quite significant.

Let's face it - would you rather buy 100 bitcoins for $10, or 0.001 bitcoins for $10?  It just doesn't feel right to be buying such a small fraction for such a large price, and that is something that will prevent many people from entering the market.