Bears, Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

[meangreen]

hey mucus I think he may have got you. this thing could be at $250 by the end of this month. I just cant see this thing go under $50 unless something is totally orchestrated by mt gox.

[Kazu]

Again these are my terms, you either agree to them or you don't.

This is a taste of your own medicine.  
PS: I was really looking forward to this superiority complex of yours.

So I can agree to something where you can fake a payment, or I don't. From a person who provides no valid reason to wanting to pay through this method that can be faked.

Hmm, this is a tough decision. How about no?

Also, how is not wanting to be scammed translate into a superiority complex?

[ElectricMucus]

Again these are my terms, you either agree to them or you don't.

This is a taste of your own medicine.  
PS: I was really looking forward to this superiority complex of yours.

So I can agree to something where you can fake a payment, or I don't. From a person who provides no valid reason to wanting to pay through this method that can be faked.

Hmm, this is a tough decision. How about no?

Also, how is not wanting to be scammed translate into a superiority complex?

You can send me an exchange code denominated in BTC too. This way I have the exact same risk of getting scammed you have.

[Kazu]

Again these are my terms, you either agree to them or you don't.

This is a taste of your own medicine.  
PS: I was really looking forward to this superiority complex of yours.

So I can agree to something where you can fake a payment, or I don't. From a person who provides no valid reason to wanting to pay through this method that can be faked.

Hmm, this is a tough decision. How about no?

Also, how is not wanting to be scammed translate into a superiority complex?

You can send me exchange an code denominated in BTC too. This way I have the exact same risk of getting scammed you have.

This is getting dumber and dumber. So the way to make it "fair" is to provide me with a way of cheating you out of winning in return for me providing you with a way of cheating me out of winning?

This is nonsense and makes no sense for either of us, unless one of us plans on cheating. Even if the loser is truthful, the loser can be all "oh, I didn't receive the exchanger code" and damage the loser's reputation. If the loser cheats, well, thats fairly self explanatory.

And all the while we have a completely transparent currency available to us that makes sure we both are true to our word. Hmm, I wonder why you don't want to use that.

[ElectricMucus]

This is getting dumber and dumber.

I agree.

[meangreen]

for christsakes just bet and use this thread as proof

[Kazu]

for christsakes just bet and use this thread as proof

1. Post a fake redemption code
2. claim that the winner already claimed it when it doesn't work
3.
4. Profit

There is simply no reason for him not wanting to pay me in BTC, considering I even covered his marginal "expense" in the exchange. Absolutely zero, other than him wanting to cheat me.

This is bullshit. You either pay me with BTC, or provide me with some fool-proof method of payment that can be publicly verified, or there is no bet.

[ElectricMucus]

for christsakes just bet and use this thread as proof

1. Post a fake redemption code
2. claim that the winner already claimed it when it doesn't work
3.
4. Profit

There is simply no reason for him not wanting to pay me in BTC, considering I even covered his marginal "expense" in the exchange. Absolutely zero, other than him wanting to cheat me.

This is bullshit. You either pay me with BTC, or provide me with some fool-proof method of payment that can be publicly verified, or there is no bet.

I already explained to you this is about risk.
If you win you take the risk of lost profits due to the price of BTC shooting above 250 before I can give you the USD. If I win I take the risk of BTC loosing value before you can give me the BTC.

[Kazu]

If you win you take the risk of lost profits due to the price of BTC shooting above 250 before I can give you the USD. If I win I take the risk of BTC loosing value before you can give me the BTC.

If I win I take the risk that BTC goes below $250 before you can give me the BTC. If you win you take the risk that BTC drops below $250 before paying me the USD.



Obviously it should not be in the loser's incentive to withhold the money for as long as possible hoping that the price declines and/or goes up. The bet should be set up to incentivise the loser to pay the winner as soon as possible.

So just pay me $250 using the exchange rate at the time? At least that way its all public, even though you could still pull some shit about "oh, I was offline while it was skyrocketting, sorry." At least that way everyone can see what you pulled, and I am at least secured for my original $250 USD, even if I don't get to exchange it to BTC at the optimal exchange rate.

In other words, you will be liable to pay me $250 worth of BTC, i.e $250 worth going by the exchange rate at the time the transaction was made. Happy? We switched the "risk" in the other direction. Swell.

[ElectricMucus]

Are ripple transaction publicly verifiable?

[Kazu]

Are ripple transaction publicly verifiable?

I honestly don't understand ripple, so IDK.

Please articulate what magical risk you are subjected to under my new system. I.e, you buy me $250 worth of Bitcoins. At the market price bitcoin is at, at the time of the transaction. Or is there some magical manufactured reason you are afraid of this as well?

[ElectricMucus]

Are ripple transaction publicly verifiable?

I honestly don't understand ripple, so IDK.
javascript:void(0);
Please articulate what magical risk you are subjected to under my new system. I.e, you buy me $250 worth of Bitcoins. At the market price bitcoin is at, at the time of the transaction. Or is there some magical manufactured reason you are afraid of this as well?

I want YOU to be subjected to the same risk I am in case of a winning bet.

This is the center point of me coming up with the bet BTW...

[Kazu]

Are ripple transaction publicly verifiable?

I honestly don't understand ripple, so IDK.
javascript:void(0);
Please articulate what magical risk you are subjected to under my new system. I.e, you buy me $250 worth of Bitcoins. At the market price bitcoin is at, at the time of the transaction. Or is there some magical manufactured reason you are afraid of this as well?

I want YOU to be subjected to the same risk I am in case of a winning bet.

Lets walk through this step-by-step. What risk are YOU subjected to given the conditions stated above?

[ElectricMucus]

Are ripple transaction publicly verifiable?

I honestly don't understand ripple, so IDK.
javascript:void(0);
Please articulate what magical risk you are subjected to under my new system. I.e, you buy me $250 worth of Bitcoins. At the market price bitcoin is at, at the time of the transaction. Or is there some magical manufactured reason you are afraid of this as well?

I want YOU to be subjected to the same risk I am in case of a winning bet.

What risk are YOU subjected to given the conditions stated above?

If BTC breaks 50 it is likely that by the time I receive it it will already be worth less than 50 Dollars. In a way you are not even subjected to the same risk I am you only lose profit.
(Good luck with the "But it's not Bitcoin going up it's the USD losing value." straw man)

[Kazu]

Are ripple transaction publicly verifiable?

I honestly don't understand ripple, so IDK.
javascript:void(0);
Please articulate what magical risk you are subjected to under my new system. I.e, you buy me $250 worth of Bitcoins. At the market price bitcoin is at, at the time of the transaction. Or is there some magical manufactured reason you are afraid of this as well?

I want YOU to be subjected to the same risk I am in case of a winning bet.

What risk are YOU subjected to given the conditions stated above?

If BTC breaks 50 it is likely that by the time I receive it it will already be worth less than 50 Dollars. In a way you are not even subjected to the same risk I am you only lose profit.
(Good luck with the "But it's not Bitcoin going up it's the USD losing value." straw man)

By your own reasoning, you wanted us to take the same risk. Your risk is that BTC will go down in value after hitting $50. My risk is BTC going down in value after hitting $250. They're one and the same.

Or, if you would, like, I could pay you in your favorite exchange codes 

[ElectricMucus]

I think that has been debated long enough. You see that risk is the center-point of why I suggested this bet.

It seems you got it, all you have to do now is deciding if you are willing to take that risk.
I now leave you to your own meddling, contact me if you decide to take me up on that so that we can make a new thread.

nuff said.

[Kazu]

I think that has been debated long enough. You see that risk is the center-point of why I suggested this bet.

I have no idea why you suggested this bet, but clearly risk has no part in it.

You, pay me, $250 worth of bitcoins if the price tanks, and I pay you $250 worth of bitcoins if the price goes to $50. If you are in favor of trolling, then if you must we can do it at the exchange price at the time the transaction was made. Neither side takes any more risk than the other. No risk for you.

I even offered you your mumbo jumbo exchange code troll you are so enthralled with. But no, you maintain that YOU must be the one paying ME in the exchange code, and there is absolutely no reason for you to take this stance other than either (A) on purpose trying trying to play "hard to get" or something equally weird or (B) intentionally trying to scam me.

[ElectricMucus]

Yeah, yeah we already had that, you are repeating yourself.

[Kazu]

Yeah, yeah we already had that, you are repeating yourself.

Of course we already had that, and you still have not made any of this mystical extra risk you are taking on clear.

Your suggested bet was "I pay you 250 USD (apparently through an exchange code though that was not stated until much later) if it goes above $250, I pay you 5 BTC when it goes below $50."

Your risk: 5 BTC being worth less than $50 at time of you exchanging out of them.
Your Benefit: 5 BTC being worth more than $50 at the time of you exchanging them





Then I suggested "You pay me 1 BTC if it goes above $250, I pay you 5 BTC when it goes below $50."

Your risk: 5 BTC being worth less than $50 at time of you exchanging out of them, you being late to exchange and 1 BTC being worth more than $250 at the time you exchange.
Your Benefit: 5 BTC being worth more than $50 at the time of you exchanging them, AND you being late to exchange and 1 BTC is now worth less than $250 at the time you exchange.

But according to you the bolded two don't cancel out (indicating that you are actually bullish, but whatever). So then I suggest:




"You pay me $250 in BTC at the BTC exchange price at which the transaction is made, I pay you 5 BTC if it goes below $50."

Your risk: 5 BTC being worth less than $50 at the time of you exchanging out of them
Your benefit: 5 BTC being worth more than $50 at the time of you exchanging them.

Which is EXACTLY THE SAME as the risks you were subjected to in your own bet. But for whatever reason you don't like it. So then I offer you a bet that eliminates the risk (and the accompanying benefit) of your own bet:




"You pay me $250 in BTC at the BTC exchange price at which the transaction is made, I pay you $250 in BTC at the BTC exchange price at which my transaction is made, if it goes below $50."

Your risk: none
Your benefit: none

You don't like that either. Okay, whatever. So then I offer you your own scheme in reverse:





"You pay me $250 in BTC at the BTC exchange price at which the transaction is made, I pay you $250 in MTGox redemption codes."

Your risk: Me cheating with the exchange code.
Your benefit: none



Which you then deny as well, thereby acknowledging the unviability of your own bet. Clearly, seeing as NONE of my proposed options please you, even the one which subjects you to the EXACT SAME BENEFITS & RISKS of your own scheme, aside from the benefit of you potentially scamming me, you are trolling.

EDIT: I like colours.

[adraza]

well if you read carefully my "wall of text" here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=182205.0

you discover that you can have any sort of transaction, using any "currency" as base without really changing the bitcoins to currency.

Long text, I know!
I would appreciate if anyone can make it more concise.

And if you agree that a "BET" is basically a two sided transactions then here you are a safe method to bet in any currency using the BTC infrastructure.

Optionally you will need a judge/escrow but the system itself has the incentive so that the participants should be honest. Only if the participants disagree the judge steps in.
(Additional qualities besides being public on BTC network.)

To be honest I am a short/medium term bear so I am interested in betting in a different currency than BTC now. But I aknowledge this safety system works because of the intrinsic properties of BTC network

So LONG term bullish!