490,000 Avalon chips already ordered - 150T hashrate spike coming in August

[Frizz23]

Difficulty will be increasing like you don't know.

So in August we will have many of those:

[Bicknellski]

+1 Sweet Cartoon Frizzy!

[erschiessen]

490k? They've sold 3 batches, total 1.5k units.. Though I don't know how many actual chips each unit contains..

If you look at the blockchain link, BTC wallet "17Tfh..." transferred  enough BTC to buy 220,000 chips.

[peetah]

490k? They've sold 3 batches, total 1.5k units.. Though I don't know how many actual chips each unit contains..

If you look at the blockchain link, BTC wallet "17Tfh..." transferred  enough BTC to buy 220,000 chips.

15,614 / 780 = 20.0179?

The 0.0179 must be shipping...

[BBQKorv]

Oh, this gets interesting. I didn't expect this amount of sales in such a short timewindow.

Now it would be a golden time for BFL to start shipping if they don't want cancelled orders flooding in like crazy.

[Dalkore]

Oh, this gets interesting. I didn't expect this amount of sales in such a short timewindow.

Now it would be a golden time for BFL to start shipping if they don't want cancelled orders flooding in like crazy.

I knew this would come, now reality hits.  Hope people are paying attention.

[minternj]

Well avalon better seriously change their little equation for batch mini 4 then huh?

[minternj]

Btw the big transactions come from 17Tfh8SE71MbvQ5vZtXPQA8a4YM8NPv3bf and 1AyTpzuCCUdgZLTHi4iB5yawuRsHL37q3j

and https://blockchain.info/address/1AyTpzuCCUdgZLTHi4iB5yawuRsHL37q3j

https://blockchain.info/address/17Tfh8SE71MbvQ5vZtXPQA8a4YM8NPv3bf

 Exactly 15614 bt from each! This seems more like avalon moving money to themselves!

Comeon people.. freak out much? Unless you seriously think 2 different  people put over 1 million dollars each with the exact same number of coins into buying chips?!

[Dalkore]

Btw the big transactions come from 17Tfh8SE71MbvQ5vZtXPQA8a4YM8NPv3bf and 1AyTpzuCCUdgZLTHi4iB5yawuRsHL37q3j

and https://blockchain.info/address/1AyTpzuCCUdgZLTHi4iB5yawuRsHL37q3j

https://blockchain.info/address/17Tfh8SE71MbvQ5vZtXPQA8a4YM8NPv3bf

 Exactly 15614 bt from each! This seems more like avalon moving money to themselves!

Comeon people.. freak out much? Unless you seriously think 2 different  people put over 1 million dollars each with the exact same number of coins into buying chips?!

Short answer - yes, it is possible.   I know a couple larger buyers.

[EskimoBob]

wow! This is some serious fire power.
I have not followed the ASIC/Avalon/BFL circus too closely. Are those chips actually ready to ship or is this just another pre-order of chips from a parallel universe?

[minternj]

i dont buy that 2 large buyers each bought the same amount of chips. For me i'll choose to not freak out over transactions in a wallet when all it shows is BT moving around. Of course its all speculation.  so... specualte away!

My speculation is that this wallet is used to pay foundry and suppliers. BT is to pay avalon Batch 3 and chips.

Oh and the all important bribe the customs officials money.

[peetah]

Actually that makes no sense. As a seller of preorder you want to over promise. Competitors will have to second guess your actual hashrate contribution and buyers will side with you. As a chip seller, however,  you want the buyers to NOT know the future hashrate. So more manufacturers will buy your chips as the expected profit margin will still be high. Also note that not a single bitcoin has been moved from this address. Which means your point of paying for foundries is invalid. It is probably held on escrow until delivery.

i dont buy that 2 large buyers each bought the same amount of chips. For me i'll choose to not freak out over transactions in a wallet when all it shows is BT moving around. Of course its all speculation.  so... specualte away!

My speculation is that this wallet is used to pay foundry and suppliers. BT is to pay avalon Batch 3 and chips.

Oh and the all important bribe the customs officials money.

[maomao]

Check it out:

https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU

China-based Forum Discussion:

http://bbs.btcman.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2207

Difficulty will be increasing like you don't know.  Hope you understand how this mining will play out.  


Thoughts?
-Dalkore

I know both of these guys ,so I do not find it surprising!

[minternj]

Actually that makes no sense. As a seller of preorder you want to over promise. Competitors will have to second guess your actual hashrate contribution and buyers will side with you. As a chip seller, however,  you want the buyers to NOT know the future hashrate. So more manufacturers will buy your chips as the expected profit margin will still be high. Also note that not a single bitcoin has been moved from this address. Which means your point of paying for foundries is invalid. It is probably held on escrow until delivery.

I said for for suppliers and foundry for chips and batch 3. They haven't even shipped batch 2 which would still work for my theory.

Either way my point is we are just trowing shit against the wall and seeing what sticks. You are all speculating on what BTCs in a wallet are for, and it doesn't make my theory any less  credible than yours. I actually did more work than jsut looking at the wallets total btc.

[peetah]

Actually that makes no sense. As a seller of preorder you want to over promise. Competitors will have to second guess your actual hashrate contribution and buyers will side with you. As a chip seller, however,  you want the buyers to NOT know the future hashrate. So more manufacturers will buy your chips as the expected profit margin will still be high. Also note that not a single bitcoin has been moved from this address. Which means your point of paying for foundries is invalid. It is probably held on escrow until delivery.

I said for for suppliers and foundry for chips and batch 3. They haven't even shipped batch 2 which would still work for my theory.

True. We'll see. I mean, they have to move that bitcoin at some point in time right? 42k bitcoins!

[Big Time Coin]

490k? They've sold 3 batches, total 1.5k units.. Though I don't know how many actual chips each unit contains..

If you look at the blockchain link, BTC wallet "17Tfh..." transferred  enough BTC to buy 220,000 chips.

15,614 / 780 = 20.0179?

The 0.0179 must be shipping...

Yup its shipping cost - 490k = it's only 2 maximum orders = so two companies with secret asic project - and multiple smaller ones, like my 10k chip order.  But if you look at the timeline I calculated for assembling miners from chips: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=180093.0

August is about right for seeing these hashers coming online.

Cost is about $2 million for chips - figure double that for facilities and supplies, including all the PCB, FPGA, PSU, cables.. the list goes on and on, plus more for labor.  Two companies made that investment without informing the community or allowing them any opportunity to participate in it because the ROI is so obvious.

How many chips per avalon device from batch 1-3? Here, I'll help: 3 modules each, each module has 10 pcb with 8 chips each = 240 chips per avalon.
batch 1 300, batch 2 600, batch 3 600 = 1500 devices = 360k chips

[Bogart]

Oh, this gets interesting. I didn't expect this amount of sales in such a short timewindow.

How many purchasers do you think are speculators just hoping to resell their in-hand chips at a markup?

[Viceroy]

So difficulty will be closer to 91 million at that point.

org, please update thread in mining speculation with 400k chips mining in tweve weeks.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178051.0

[Viceroy]

How many purchasers do you think are speculators just hoping to resell their in-hand chips at a markup?

none.  theses are ALL makers.

[StringTheory]

Oh, this gets interesting. I didn't expect this amount of sales in such a short timewindow.

How many purchasers do you think are speculators just hoping to resell their in-hand chips at a markup?

Considering the max order is 200,000 chips, I feel at the moment it doesn't seem likely they will "sell-out" and turn into a mark-up situation.