Game of Thrones - Who will rule? Odds and betting discussion [Odds updated!]

[gabmen]

Personally, I think that the throne will get back to the Baratheon family where it all started.
I don't think that all the favorites are going to rule, Jon Snow, Danearys, Bran, Sansa etc will probably all die while fighting the Whitewalkers.

I would be happy to see such a situation in the show and I will probably bet for it. It is a value bet for me!

Baratheon family? You are aware that the bastard gendry is the only living baratheon now right? So that's highly unlikely. Spoilers seem to be popping up quite often now though most of them are questionable lol. Just a few more months guys lol.

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[TheCoinGrabber]

Ah, the sweet summer children are dreaming of spring even here. 

I'm betting that Cersei would stay on the throne (assuming they don't pull that prophecy thing). If not maybe either Tyrion as regent or Sansa.

The latter have no claims but it'll be a twisted fulfillment of Littlefinger's dream of them being on the throne. (D&D love disappointing us)

I don't believe Dany would survive. Many are speculating she will be the sacrifice for Lightbringer or something close to that.

Saw someone mentioned Varys continuing to influence from the shadows. No. The Holy Mother of Shadowbabies said that herself.

[bbc.reporter]

I wonder how many people close to the writer or actors have friends who could make a quick buck from this eh? Might not win much on an outright, but you could certainly take bags of money and make markets for all the characters they KNOW won't sit on the throne. Makes me feel the winner probably has very low payouts (therefore, most expected) after all.

@leea-1334. Cloudbet and Nitrogensports can be trusted enough for any amount below $500 if you are scared. Why would they scam you for such a low amount? That would be bad for their reputation.

In any case, after an investigation, Cloudbet has paid out 80 bitcoins of winnings to 1 user which raised its trustrating in Peep's Place sportsbooks review thread.

But both Cloudbet and Nitrogensports have had recent allegations against them NOT paying out wins or cancelling bets. The latter even on a very dubious Asian Handicap bet that half pushed, half won on a parlay and apparently revealed that it had very bad AH reputations.

Cloudbet's also withheld in the past apparently, although negative ratings were recently adjusted to neutral, so he's probably justified in worrying. Besides, the amount shouldn't matter for trust. $1 or $1000 shouldn't have a say on how they handle your funds.

Check trust ratings of each to see what I mean. I would bet, but I would never tell people their money is safe on those reputations.

Agreed. I edited my post and added a warning.

Also, Cloudbet replied to my request and said that they cannot reduce the minstake for the Game of Thrones betting because they are high risk outright markets. Should they not reduce the maxstake instead?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=333552.msg50240551#msg50240551

In any case, if anyone knows another sportsbook that offers betting on Game of Thrones, please share them. Thank you!

[Malsetid]

Ah, the sweet summer children are dreaming of spring even here. 

I'm betting that Cersei would stay on the throne (assuming they don't pull that prophecy thing). If not maybe either Tyrion as regent or Sansa.

The latter have no claims but it'll be a twisted fulfillment of Littlefinger's dream of them being on the throne. (D&D love disappointing us)

I don't believe Dany would survive. Many are speculating she will be the sacrifice for Lightbringer or something close to that.

Saw someone mentioned Varys continuing to influence from the shadows. No. The Holy Mother of Shadowbabies said that herself.

Interesting. Yeah i've read a couole of fan  theories that dany will die along with jon snow. That leaves us without the 2 people with legitimate claims to the iron throne. I'm not betting sansa. She's lovely but she likely won't survive the war. And cersei. She'd probably be killed either by jamie or tyrion. I'd bet on the offspring of jon and dany to be the one to sit on the the throne. It's anyone's guess anyway.

[Naida_BR]

Personally, I think that the throne will get back to the Baratheon family where it all started.
I don't think that all the favorites are going to rule, Jon Snow, Danearys, Bran, Sansa etc will probably all die while fighting the Whitewalkers.

I would be happy to see such a situation in the show and I will probably bet for it. It is a value bet for me!

Baratheon family? You are aware that the bastard gendry is the only living baratheon now right? So that's highly unlikely. Spoilers seem to be popping up quite often now though most of them are questionable lol. Just a few more months guys lol.

Of course I am aware and he is the guy who I was pointing out that he is going to take the throne!
I am glad that someone realized that! I would love to see Stannis taking over the iron throne but he is dead, so Gendry is going to work for me. I don't think that there is no reason that they kept him alive all these seasons. He may be a key role in the TV series.

[Cloudbet]

Afternoon all,

As some of you have been in contact to ask about our Game of Thrones bitcoin betting markets I thought I'd stop by to share some info!

We are currently offering lines on ‘Who will sit on the Iron Throne at the end of season 8’, as well as ten different head to head matchups on ‘Who will die first?’ (push on no death):

- Sandor Clegane vs Gregor Clegane (Clegane Bowl get hype!)  
- Brienne Of Tarth vs Tormund Giantsbane (As long as Tormund gets his kiss first!)
- Jon Snow vs Bran Stark
- Cersei Lannister vs Daenarys Targaryen
- Jaime Lannister vs Tyrion Lannister
- Theon Greyjoy vs Euron Greyjoy
- Bronn vs Varys
- Sansa Stark vs Arya Stark (Noooooooooo!)  
- Melisandra vs Davos Seaworth
- Gilly vs Hot Pie (Battle of the titans!)  

Check out our full list of our Game of Thrones lines along with the related odds here.

We’ve also just published a new blog (written by my own fair hand) detailing the contenders, and my thoughts on who could be the character to emerge victorious. Check it out here.

I personally think Tyrion Lannister is great value at (8.43) to take the throne at the end of the season. I’m doubtful that many of the current favourites are going to survive the impending bloodbath, and Tyrion seems ideally placed just outside the inner circle to have everything fall into his lap. What do you think about his chances? I’ve also got a funny feeling Gendry (7.30) could sneak a win at the end, it would be weirdly fitting for someone who’s not even playing the ‘game’ to win the throne.

Now I'm aware our min stakes might be on the high side, so to sweeten the deal a little bit I’m offering an exclusive Bitcointalk flash bonus to anyone wanting to place Game of Thrones bets at Cloudbet:

The next 10 players who place a bet on any Game of Thrones line at Cloudbet and PMs me their Bet ID (or post it here) will receive 50 free spins on one of our most popular bitcoin slot games!

That should keep you busy while we wait for the new series to finally start!

Lastly, don’t forget to let me know what you think of the predictions in our blog, I’m fully prepared for my theories to get torn apart in the first five minutes by the bitcointalk freefolk  

Ronnie @ cloudbet

[Juggy777]

Personally, I think that the throne will get back to the Baratheon family where it all started.
I don't think that all the favorites are going to rule, Jon Snow, Danearys, Bran, Sansa etc will probably all die while fighting the Whitewalkers.

I would be happy to see such a situation in the show and I will probably bet for it. It is a value bet for me!

Baratheon family? You are aware that the bastard gendry is the only living baratheon now right? So that's highly unlikely. Spoilers seem to be popping up quite often now though most of them are questionable lol. Just a few more months guys lol.

Of course I am aware and he is the guy who I was pointing out that he is going to take the throne!
I am glad that someone realized that! I would love to see Stannis taking over the iron throne but he is dead, so Gendry is going to work for me. I don't think that there is no reason that they kept him alive all these seasons. He may be a key role in the TV series.

Hey while Gendry has lived so far in the show he’s definitely not going to be sitting on the iron throne, if he does survives he might try to be the hand of the king. I don’t know why you would want stannis as he’s been dead since quiet a while now. Also I’m keen to avoid spoilers cause each time I read one, I only keep thinking about it the entire day and then I realise April 14 is yet far away.

[webtricks]

Personally, I think that the throne will get back to the Baratheon family where it all started.
I don't think that all the favorites are going to rule, Jon Snow, Danearys, Bran, Sansa etc will probably all die while fighting the Whitewalkers.

I would be happy to see such a situation in the show and I will probably bet for it. It is a value bet for me!

Baratheon family? You are aware that the bastard gendry is the only living baratheon now right? So that's highly unlikely. Spoilers seem to be popping up quite often now though most of them are questionable lol. Just a few more months guys lol.

Of course I am aware and he is the guy who I was pointing out that he is going to take the throne!
I am glad that someone realized that! I would love to see Stannis taking over the iron throne but he is dead, so Gendry is going to work for me. I don't think that there is no reason that they kept him alive all these seasons. He may be a key role in the TV series.

Gendry is not a king material. How can someone who spent all his life forging weapons can suddenly turn as a ruler. However, there is a possibility that throne may return to Baratheon family but who can become ruler? Well, yes Stannis Baratheon and who else! But he's dead! Well, did anyone see his head detaching from his body when Brienne of Tarth wield her sword? Who knows if Brienne actually killed him or there was some sentimental conversation among them and she let him go. Anything is possible!

By the way, my vote is on democracy! GoT will end with the end of monarchy and democracy will rule the seven kingdoms. 

[bbc.reporter]

@Ronnie. I would have made some bets if the minstake was beginning on .0025 hehe. I am only a small pundit who do this as a hobby. Is there a way for Cloudbet to lower the who will die first betting to .0025? I want to bet on most of them.

[Cloudbet]

@bbc.reporter - I've checked with our teams and unfortunately the min stakes are there to stay.

I'm in discussions with the team to see if the min stakes can be lowered for similar entertainment markets in the future.

@Juggy777 - I thought the same about Gendry until I read the theory about him possibly learning to forge Valyrian steel weapons. If he was unveiled as the bastard son of a king, and gave Westeros the tools needed to fight the White Walkers he could be hailed as a hero, but I still don't think his claim would be strong enough if any of the other main contenders are still alive. I'm counting on a lot of high profile deaths in the first few episodes!

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

[buwaytress]

@Ronnie: I definitely think Tyrion's the best value bet and there's going to be a lot of support for that. But I still feel if everything's already written and filmed, there's got to be enough leaks for people to make markets, and so checking sites like Fairbet or for crypto Fairlay, will probably give a good mathematician some close guesses as to a shortlist.

I wouldn't rule out an improbable character as well, but that would be reliant on a big reveal, which, is probably why it's worth shooting a few backs on the outsiders.

@Ronnie. I would have made some bets if the minstake was beginning on .0025 hehe. I am only a small pundit who do this as a hobby. Is there a way for Cloudbet to lower the who will die first betting to .0025? I want to bet on most of them.

Yeah, it's a bit too much for me too. 0.001 is my standard bet and I might go as high as 0.01 on sports for a big match, but not something like a hobby punt!

[Naida_BR]

Personally, I think that the throne will get back to the Baratheon family where it all started.
I don't think that all the favorites are going to rule, Jon Snow, Danearys, Bran, Sansa etc will probably all die while fighting the Whitewalkers.

I would be happy to see such a situation in the show and I will probably bet for it. It is a value bet for me!

Baratheon family? You are aware that the bastard gendry is the only living baratheon now right? So that's highly unlikely. Spoilers seem to be popping up quite often now though most of them are questionable lol. Just a few more months guys lol.

Of course I am aware and he is the guy who I was pointing out that he is going to take the throne!
I am glad that someone realized that! I would love to see Stannis taking over the iron throne but he is dead, so Gendry is going to work for me. I don't think that there is no reason that they kept him alive all these seasons. He may be a key role in the TV series.

Gendry is not a king material. How can someone who spent all his life forging weapons can suddenly turn as a ruler. However, there is a possibility that throne may return to Baratheon family but who can become ruler? Well, yes Stannis Baratheon and who else! But he's dead! Well, did anyone see his head detaching from his body when Brienne of Tarth wield her sword? Who knows if Brienne actually killed him or there was some sentimental conversation among them and she let him go. Anything is possible!

By the way, my vote is on democracy! GoT will end with the end of monarchy and democracy will rule the seven kingdoms. 

This show has surprised us many times. Jon Snow wasn't a king material but they managed to make him with the story of his past.
We don't know very much about Gendry's past. Some episodes may reveal several things that may connect him with the Iron Throne. It is just my assumption and my thought.

[TheCoinGrabber]

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Interesting. Yeah i've read a couole of fan  theories that dany will die along with jon snow. That leaves us without the 2 people with legitimate claims to the iron throne. I'm not betting sansa. She's lovely but she likely won't survive the war. And cersei. She'd probably be killed either by jamie or tyrion. I'd bet on the offspring of jon and dany to be the one to sit on the the throne. It's anyone's guess anyway.

Didn't Mirri Maz Dur's curse left Dany infertile or something?  Cersei is also pregnant.

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By the way, my vote is on democracy! GoT will end with the end of monarchy and democracy will rule the seven kingdoms. 

With the Dothraki now having crossed the Narrow Sea, I don't think so. Should Dany die the khalasar would break up like what happened after Drogo died and they'd go around pillaging Westeros. Such situation would call for more tough man politics, aka more feudalism.

[Cloudbet]

@buwaytress - Yeah I definitely agree, and it's probably why most books have the odds due to come down on April 1st at the moment - the closer we get to the series start the more leaks and rumours will be coming out and there's not many people 'trading' on those lines to keep them tight.

I can understand the reluctance to place a 'fun' bet on the lines given the above-average minimum stakes, I was hoping the 50 free spin offer would tempt a few more punters but so far only a few have been claimed via the forums! 

@Naida_BR - I do have a feeling that Gendry is going to have a big part to play, but they are going to have to act fast if they are going to reveal more backstory and try and extend his character arc in the last 6 episodes!

@TheCoinGrabber - It's up for debate, but depending on how closely the show follows the books it's possible she is still fertile.

After the events with Duur and Drogo (and Dany losing her unborn child) the last bit of the 'prophesy' about Drogo's recovery states:

...when your womb quickens again and you bear a living child
Then he will return, and not before.

Which seems to hint that having a another child was possible, unless it was just a mean way of saying "It's never going to happen".

There was also this theory on /r/asoiaf about Dany having a miscarriage, which would hint at the idea that she is still able to conceive (unless the 'curse' just means that she'll never birth a 'living' child)

I'm now leaning towards a child of Dany & Jon being raised as a future king with Tyrion as their protector/regent.

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

[mornabo]

I thought that Jon Snow would be the king of Westeros, we knew that he was the legitimate heir of Iron Thrones, the living son of Rhaegar Targaryen. the big odds are enough to attract me to bet on Jon. Bran has the smallest odds while he says that he will only become Three Eye Raven.

[bbc.reporter]

I'm now leaning towards a child of Dany & Jon being raised as a future king with Tyrion as their protector/regent.

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

We must consider that George R.R. Martin is also crazy hehehe. Your ending would be the model ending, however when did the writers take that direction? We will certainly see more surprises.

I predict Daenarys, Jon and Tyrion will die before Cersei.

[Juggy777]

I'm now leaning towards a child of Dany & Jon being raised as a future king with Tyrion as their protector/regent.

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

We must consider that George R.R. Martin is also crazy hehehe. Your ending would be the model ending, however when did the writers take that direction? We will certainly see more surprises.

I predict Daenarys, Jon and Tyrion will die before Cersei.

Hey I feel that could happen as this could be one big story that Sam is reading, to Jon and Danny’s child. I had read leaked scripts last year not sure if it’ll be true or not, but Cersei shall be bumped off very soon by her so called lover Euron so it’ll be interesting to see how long she survives. I feel Danny has to die as that’s logical from the shows perspective, but Jon and Tyrion better survive.

[Naida_BR]

@Naida_BR - I do have a feeling that Gendry is going to have a big part to play, but they are going to have to act fast if they are going to reveal more backstory and try and extend his character arc in the last 6 episodes!

I couldn't agree more.
My feeling is that a story has to be connected with this character otherwise there was no point in letting him alive for all these seasons.
But of course, if something has to do with him they should start plotting the story maybe even from the first episode of this last season in order to catch up the events.

[Cloudbet]

I'm now leaning towards a child of Dany & Jon being raised as a future king with Tyrion as their protector/regent.

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

We must consider that George R.R. Martin is also crazy hehehe. Your ending would be the model ending, however when did the writers take that direction? We will certainly see more surprises.

I predict Daenarys, Jon and Tyrion will die before Cersei.

Hey I feel that could happen as this could be one big story that Sam is reading, to Jon and Danny’s child. I had read leaked scripts last year not sure if it’ll be true or not, but Cersei shall be bumped off very soon by her so called lover Euron so it’ll be interesting to see how long she survives. I feel Danny has to die as that’s logical from the shows perspective, but Jon and Tyrion better survive.

Sam reading to baby Jon/Dany would actually make a lot of sense, and I'm very interested in the idea of Euron killing Cersei. There was even some talk that the baby Cersi claims to be carrying is Euron's which might be some kind of trigger, or possibly even drive Jamie to kill his sister.

Jon's stabbing in the books was enough to make me quit for a while, if he does get killed off in the show I'm going to be super sad.

Some good news to share - I was initially told our Game of Thrones lines would be coming down on April 1st, but it now seems they will be staying up until April14th (right up until the start of the new series!)  

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

[bbc.reporter]

@Ronnie. Thank you!

There are some betting opportunities in the characters to die first category that I reckon the sportsbooks might have them wrong hehehe.

Who will die first? If no one dies between them, your bet is a push and the bitcoins will be back in your account.


Daenarys 2.43
        or
Cersei 1.47


Tyrion 3.75
        or
Jaime 1.21


The Hound - 3.84
        or
The Mountain - 1.20


Gilly - 1.09
        or
Hot Pie 5.66


All my bets are for the underdogs.