I'm pleased that some people have responded to my posts with some suggestions and arguments. I'd really like to debate this some more.
For the record, I have a fairly decent amount of MNX. I am pleased with the reporting from the Minex Team and very interested in the project. It's absolutely not my intention to troll or attempt to disrupt the community.
I hope my posts come across as constructively critical. The whole ecosystem being built up by the team may fail for the worst reason... because MNX can't hold it's market value.
I think we are still waiting to see the impact of the VISA cards. There were some keen early adopters, myself included. Again for the record, I have passed my KYC checks and eagerly await my card delivery.
But surprisingly to me... enthusiasm for the cards is much lower than I was expecting. I base this on the published number of attempted KYC submissions (475). I hope that the thousands of other unpaid registrations are waiting to see the first few successful transactions reported and jump on board.
Analysing things more has led me to the conclusion that the strategies used to kick start this project may well cause its demise if not addressed within the next couple of quarters.
(See my previous posts for my reasoning)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1847292.msg43842794#msg43842794https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1847292.msg43860515#msg43860515https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1847292.msg43861585#msg43861585Can someone from the Minex team offer any feedback on this? Have you any strategies planned to encourage more buy-volume in the market?
What we need is more volume, other than the periodical dumping of parking interest.
I expect the coming weeks might be particularly bad for MNX price as the first quarterly parkings are due to mature.
I think today is just the beginning of a 2~4 week dumping period. As suggested in the previous few days, we are hitting the dates where those first quarterly parkings are maturing and people will be attempting to claw back some losses by selling the interest or perhaps exiting all together.
This is clearly creating a surge in supply. Look at the daily volumes on both Exmo and Livecoin.
Whether this has induced some panic selling or not is not immediately clear... we will be able to tell that more clearly after a few days to a week.: "Don't fight the tape" as anyone familiar with market trends will know.
Regardless of panic selling, there will only ever be one outcome when supply is suddenly increased... which is, by any application of standard analysis, a crash.
I reiterate once more, as a concerned investor, that the Minex team absolutely must change their strategy. Parking Interest proved to be a very good stabiliser during a bear market... but the rate change in May has proved to be too drastic.
If we want to use the same parking mechanism to regain the value of MNX, the following should happen;
1) rates should be returned to around half of what they where pre-May
2) quarterly and longer rates should be immediately decommissioned to discourage large periodical dumping
3) rates should then be gradually decreased, starting as soon as the price recovers to around $10. This must be gradual to avoid a second run of panic sells like the late April/early May period
Such a strategy will not come cheap. But it is clear now that the pace of change was too rapid for a market with such low liquidity to manage.
If we
don't want to use the parking mechanism for such an adjustment, there must be some mechanism to counteract a cycle of holding and dumping.
This is currently the biggest weakness of the project.While the price stays above $2 USD, there is still a chance to retain enough interest in MNX for a recovery. Very soon after it dips below that though... there will be very little that can be done. The market cap will be too low to make the coin of interest to casual investors, liquidity will fall to almost zero and the MNX market will collapse. I would put that timeframe at the third quarter after falling to $2, or if we fall too rapidly perhaps the second quarter after hitting $1.
The current strategy is producing a disparity in the market, which can not be absorbed with such low liquidity across just a few exchanges. More exchanges would help... but it needs to be 3x to 4x the current number. There is not enough time to implement this, so we should not quote this or hold on to this as a recovery method.
