Litecoin has potential. Beyond $50?

[OrangeP]

Litecoin adaption/transactions might increase if it offers a transaction cost/time advantage over bitcoin.
If you are a vendor you might easily offer LTC payments with cheaper prices than BTC. The integration should be easy.

Litecoin might become the everyday-payment method, whereas Bitcoin remains the old value store.

A price of >0.015BTC seems perfectly reasonable.

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[iamnotback]

@miscreanity what I see on those charts is that Bitcoin is making lower highs and lower lows after the $1280 (isn't that a double-top from the peak intraday price in 2013?), which is short-term bearish. And the candlesticks on Litecoin are forming a wedge pattern which about to breakout, either to the upside or downside (but normally such a pattern will continue in the direction it was on, so upside breakout).

Combine that chart understanding with the fundamental understanding of Bitcoin as Nash's ideal money, and that is why I posit that Bitcoin can't move higher until Litecoin catches up.

...

I am hypothesizing that BTC will be range-bound (eyeballing it perhaps $800 - $1150ish), until Litecoin has clearly signaled that it is resuming its relevancy and on the way towards an ATH.

That chart is clearly indicating that Bitcoin can't move higher until Litecoin catches up.

Litecoin's price is undergoing the same technology adoption as Bitcoin and all the rest, it is just that the first hump is very volatile (because silver is more volatile than gold for the reasons I have explained). So this means Litecoin's price is going to $100+:

My prediction that BTC would remain range bound until LTC catches up, is so far proving to be true.

The simple reason for this is that the market is not stupid. The market knows that Bitcoin can't ever get any scaling improvements to its protocol. Bitcoin will forever be relegated to small blocks, because it was intended that Bitcoin be the most reliable (i.e. no experimental shit) settlement layer for the power brokers of finance. As the fee per transaction rises to $10 on Bitcoin over this year (and let's guess $100 per transaction by 2019), then most of us will not transact on Bitcoin any more. We will transact on Litecoin. And Blockstream will transfer its efforts to Litecoin, which will give Litecoin legitimacy.

So Bitcoin can't move higher until it is assured that Litecoin will provide the scaling solutions that our ecosystem needs so that blockchains can begin to invade the mainstream world of payments systems and fractional reserve banking. Upthread I explained why Ripple is dogshit, so I expect once it becomes clear that Litecoin will have Lightning Networks coming, then Ripple will collapse. So the smart money should be moving from Ripple to Litecoin.

Note the current jump to $12 looks like it might be overheated and too fast, so I'd be cautious about buying too much too fast. Average in your buys in case we get a dip, but do get some now (nibble) if you don't have any because price can run higher yet. Yet I remain adamant that Litecoin is easily going to exceed $30 and probably $100 before the end of this year, unless somehow SegWit activation is defeated. At the moment SegWit signaling is at 70.8% for those blocks in the last 21 hours. We are very close.

Some myopic people haven't realized that Litecoin needs scaling because it will be receiving all the excess volume from Bitcoin that can't fit in Bitcoin's small blocks, and because the volume will increase exponentially with Lightning Networks enabling private fractional reserve banking and the banks will evangelize Litecoin ecoins to the masses. Litecoin either grabs this opportunity, else Ethereum will take this role with its coming Raiden clone of Lightning Networks. But Blockstream is not going to let that happen. Bobby Lee of BTCC is the brother of Charlie Lee the creator of Litecoin. BTCC will push SegWit activation over the 75% threshold with its GPU farm that is mining Ethereum, if need be.

Also myopic people don't realize that block size increases can't scale because due to the equation on orphan rate, orphan rates increases exponentially as block size increases. Exponential worsening is the antithesis of scaling for anyone who understands math and computer science. I also explained why Xthin is no solution to this dilemma.

I was checking yesterdays trading  volumes and 22% of all crypto trading  was Bitcoin trading with fiat. 11% was Litecon trading with fiat.
If you take out bitcoin trading with alts, Bitcoin dont look that big anymore. 
and since talk in this thread was what LTC have that most other alts dont have is exactly this build infrastructure.

LTC would gain traction due to the centralists of the DCG
here is a list of those prominent services in DCG portfolio that have alot of sway of the whole crypt-onomy
-blockstream
-btcc(litecoin inventors brother)
-bitpay
-bitpesa
-changtip
-coinbase(litecoin inventor)
-coindesk (puppetmaster of propaganda owned by DCG)
-gyft
-kraken
-purse
-shapeshift
-xapo

plus many more

imagine if all of them (shh they are already becoming) start being LTC friendly. ETH wont stand a chance with being 'merchants accept' available

[iamnotback]

One day it had 100k$ trading volume for 24H, and now it has fucking 21B$ trading volume on btc-e. Talkin about ltc obviously.

Don't enter from here or else you'll get burned. Fontas made a cumback it seems. Don't fall for it.

LTC is a good buy long term for this year but as of now it's bubbled, no way im getting back in under 0.009 hopefully by tomorrow we've corrected around there.

I traded the high 0.0113 and re-entered at 0.01. I am and have been 100% in LTC since $6.50. I invest based on fundamentals and my conviction. I am not really a trader.

I think it may push higher from here, but even if it dips to 0.009, I am happy holding this position, because all BTC holders who want to pay for goods & services have to come to LTC over the next year or so, else they won't be able to afford to transact. Speculation in BTC can of course continue on exchanges at low transaction fees because these aren't blockchain transactions, but if you hold your balances always on exchanges, eventually you will lose your money due to hacks and thefts.

LTC should rise over the next year or so to at least 0.05. It will likely overshoot to something ridiculous such as 0.2, due to way greater fool mass manias and speculation play out.

So 0.01 or 0.009 is splitting hairs. You run the risk of chasing it and never getting on board.

Bitcoin will never get SegWit, Lightning Networks, nor larger blocks. Anyone still talking/writing about that are wasting their breath/fingertips.

Right now we are in the attitude readjustment phase where Bitcoiners slowly pour cold water on their face and wake up to reality.

It even hit 13.5$ on kraken, so it seems the next 2-3 weeks untill segwit's activates the price will further increase. Apparently some people are also selling btc for ltc.

LTC's creator Charlie lee seems to think that the LTC price can increase up to 50$ and he casted a vote https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/849695527268564992

[Instamined]

Bitcoin will never get SegWit, Lightning Networks, nor larger blocks. Anyone still talking/writing about that are wasting their breath/fingertips.

What makes you so sure? What is the required percentage to have segwit or BU activate as main chain on BTC?

[European Central Bank]

https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/849792524487086080

coinbase to add easy fiat buys for litecoin.

they're also one of the major merchant processors. what's the betting it might be rolled out for that too?

[iamnotback]

And now finally we understand that indeed scaling can only happen on Litecoin:

Re: Well, well, well, now we know what Jihan Wu’s been up to.

Apparently, Jihan Wu has been covertly using some patented exploit called asicboost to gain 20%+ efficiency on his hardware that’s incompatible with SegWit. It all makes sense now. Hope he gets his ass sued off.

Shills care to chime in?

https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2017-April/013996.html

Yup. Now everything is clear and now we know why everyone must buy LTC.

FUD.  Asicboost been known about for a long time and Bitmain holds the patent in China.

https://www.asicboost.com/patent

All ASIC manufacturing will be in China.

Sorry Bitcoin will never get SegWit nor LN, because Bitmain will block it on Bitcoin. And the whales of Bitcoin will always block larger blocks for the reasons I have explained else where.

But Bitmain is unable to block SegWit on Litecoin, even though they tried to.

Now we know why the other ASIC manufacturers are not against SegWit. They don't want to pay patent fees. Perhaps Baron Wu offered some deals to some others to get them to join his efforts.

[iamnotback]

Now that Jihan and Bitmain have been outed as exploiting a vulnerability in Bitcoin's PoW and that SegWit would have made it impossible for them to continue exploiting this vulnerability the motivations for blocking SegWit and supporting BU have now become very clear. We're going to see a shift in SegWit support in Bitcoin very soon and LTC is also helping here by activating SegWit first. I can see some more room up for Litecoin until around 0.02 or $25, but this will change as soon as Bitcoin starts to make progress towards activating SegWit as well and people start moving back into BTC. If you think BTC will stay behind and never activate SW or LN you are sorely mistaken. Let's see what happens and see who turns out to be right.

We can't get 95% to activate SegWit on Bitcoin without Bitmain's approval. They have every right to protect their patent's value. Those who think Bitcoiners will rally to fight him are socialists and communists, who deny capitalism, game theory, and economic reality.

We can't lower the 95% threshold for Bitcoin, because it will cause too much risk and wild price swings.

Also we shouldn't be putting such experimental shit on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is supposed to remain reliable.

Sorry Bitcoin will remain unmodified, as Satoshi (aka Nash) intended its equilibrium game theory to be a clusterfuck of politics insuring the immutability of the protocol which is what gives Bitcoin its trust and value.

wait...
if his asicboost is rendered invalid, doesn't that make all his ASIC+asicboost hardware useless ( totally useless) ?

As I understand the whitepaper, yes it would because the logic gates for avoiding the optimization have been eliminated which makes it 20% more efficient.

All those who own Bitmain hardware for mining SHA2 coins, must fight SegWit.

If you fork and bankrupt miners who bought hardware, Bitcoin can never again be trusted. It means Bitcoin is run by democracy and not by immutability. Satoshi (Nash) will roll over in his grave.

The whales of Bitcoin will destroy any such fork. I guarantee you that!

Got LTC yet? 

[a29654]

Now that Jihan and Bitmain have been outed as exploiting a vulnerability in Bitcoin's PoW and that SegWit would have made it impossible for them to continue exploiting this vulnerability the motivations for blocking SegWit and supporting BU have now become very clear. We're going to see a shift in SegWit support in Bitcoin very soon and LTC is also helping here by activating SegWit first. I can see some more room up for Litecoin until around 0.02 or $25, but this will change as soon as Bitcoin starts to make progress towards activating SegWit as well and people start moving back into BTC. If you think BTC will stay behind and never activate SW or LN you are sorely mistaken. Let's see what happens and see who turns out to be right.

We can't get 95% to activate SegWit on Bitcoin without Bitmain's approval. They have every right to protect their patent's value.

We can't lower the 95% threshold for Bitcoin, because it will cause too much risk and wild price swings.

Also we shouldn't be putting such experimental shit on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is supposed to remain reliable.

Sorry Bitcoin will remain unmodified, as Satoshi (aka Nash) intended its equilibrium game theory to be a clusterfuck of politics insuring the immutability of the protocol which is what gives Bitcoin its trust and value.

wait...
if his asicboost is rendered invalid, doesn't that make all his ASIC+asicboost hardware useless ( totally useless) ?

As I understand the whitepaper, yes it would because the logic gates for avoiding the optimization have been eliminated which makes it 20% more efficient.

All those who own Bitmain hardware for mining SHA2 coins, must fight SegWit.

Couldn't bitmain release new ascis in order to control the script market as they have aha-256

[iamnotback]

Couldn't bitmain release new ascis in order to control the script market as they have aha-256

Once SegWit is activated with 75% of the hashrate, it is very unlikely he could muster enough hashrate to revert it. And over time it will become increasingly unlikely.

Litecoin will get SegWit.

[crypticj]

Now that Jihan and Bitmain have been outed as exploiting a vulnerability in Bitcoin's PoW and that SegWit would have made it impossible for them to continue exploiting this vulnerability the motivations for blocking SegWit and supporting BU have now become very clear. We're going to see a shift in SegWit support in Bitcoin very soon and LTC is also helping here by activating SegWit first. I can see some more room up for Litecoin until around 0.02 or $25, but this will change as soon as Bitcoin starts to make progress towards activating SegWit as well and people start moving back into BTC. If you think BTC will stay behind and never activate SW or LN you are sorely mistaken. Let's see what happens and see who turns out to be right.

We can't get 95% to activate SegWit on Bitcoin without Bitmain's approval. They have every right to protect their patent's value. Those who think Bitcoiners will rally to fight him are socialists and communists, who deny capitalism, game theory, and economic reality.

We can't lower the 95% threshold for Bitcoin, because it will cause too much risk and wild price swings.

Also we shouldn't be putting such experimental shit on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is supposed to remain reliable.

Sorry Bitcoin will remain unmodified, as Satoshi (aka Nash) intended its equilibrium game theory to be a clusterfuck of politics insuring the immutability of the protocol which is what gives Bitcoin its trust and value.

wait...
if his asicboost is rendered invalid, doesn't that make all his ASIC+asicboost hardware useless ( totally useless) ?

As I understand the whitepaper, yes it would because the logic gates for avoiding the optimization have been eliminated which makes it 20% more efficient.

All those who own Bitmain hardware for mining SHA2 coins, must fight SegWit.

If you fork and bankrupt miners who bought hardware, Bitcoin can never again be trusted. It means Bitcoin is run by democracy and not by immutability. Satoshi (Nash) will roll over in his grave.

The whales of Bitcoin will destroy any such fork. I guarantee you that!

Got LTC yet?  

Plus lets not forget if Bitcoin does split BU and BTC bitmain well have double coin on both blocks before fork. They can just dump BTC they are holding and destroy the market while still holding BU hence making it the major Bitcoin (clone) so to speak.

BTW not sure if you read my late last night post "iam not back"where you convinced me to buy Litecoin with your Logical posts. Just want to thank you bought 80 Litecoin and decided against selling a lot more and more that i am accumulating from mining. So thank you and keep up the Good work!!!

[Golftech]

https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/849792524487086080

coinbase to add easy fiat buys for litecoin.

they're also one of the major merchant processors. what's the betting it might be rolled out for that too?

this would be a good progress for ltc and the price is really rallying up right now, few hours ago its only .0089 btc now its already touched .01btc and still showing strong rise up, those who's playing with it already partying for sure, its not too late to place an entry and hold for a long term.

[DonApp]

I think with the current deputes with BTC it will give LTC the opportunity to catch up pricewise. If Segwit is activated before BTC and Coinbase adds LTC, I think a x5 is easily achieved this year. Could even be within months if Segwit and Coinbase are activated soon!

[iamnotback]

The SegWit signaling has fallen back to 68 - 69%. One could postulate that all spare capacity for mining LTC was already brought onboard with the recent price increase. And that Bitmain will gradually eat away at that by producing more L3s which they keep for themselves to mine on LTC and block SegWit. The competitors may not have much resources as Bitmain, or just the fact that the L3 is twice as efficient as the A4 competition. I am not sure if that is the only scenario though. Maybe BTCC hasn't yet unleashed their GPU farm on LTC because perhaps they want to wait for a higher price. Maybe they want to stimulate one more price pump before making their move. There have been hacking attacks that have moved hashrate to different pools. So I don't know if a similar attack has been employed on LTC pools. I noticed some significant change in the LTC pool distribution compared to yesterday.

https://web.archive.org/web/20170406082911/https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools

https://web.archive.org/web/20170405041023/https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools

I had the thought that even if SegWit doesn't get activated, Litecoin has 4X more capacity in its blocks than Bitcoin, so it will have lower transaction fees. Yet I don't know if that would be compelling enough without real scaling.

Edit: Okay I was mistaken in thinking the activation period was only 24 hours. It is 2 weeks:

https://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/63nb70/how_long_does_it_need_to_be_over_75_before/

Edit#2: Ah I see it must be a specific retarget period!

Lock-in: If 75% of blocks within any retarget period signal support for segwit, it locks-in. SegWit transactions are now opt-in.

Activate: After another 8064-block (roughly two week) retarget period, segwit will activate, allowing miners to produce blocks containing segwit transactions on Litecoin’s mainnet.

Thus perhaps we can expect that BTCC won't throw its GPUs at LTC mining until the next block retargeting! Important find.

The next block retargeting begins in ~30 hours, and the following confirms the two week activation period:

Next block retarget (4 per activation period)

Since a retarget period is roughly 3.5 days, that means the prior 3.5 day retargeting period did not start with ~69% signaling.

So I conclude that we might see fireworks ~30 hours from now.

[crypticj]

The SegWit signaling has fallen back to 68 - 69%. One could postulate that all spare capacity for mining LTC was already brought onboard with the recent price increase. And that Bitmain will gradually eat away at that by producing more L3s which they keep for themselves to mine on LTC and block SegWit. The competitors may not have much resources as Bitmain, or just the fact that the L3 is twice as efficient as the A4 competition. I am not sure if that is the only scenario though. Maybe BTCC hasn't yet unleashed their GPU farm on LTC because perhaps they want to wait for a higher price. Maybe they want to stimulate one more price pump before making their move. There have been hacking attacks that have moved hashrate to different pools. So I don't know if a similar attack has been employed on LTC pools. I noticed some significant change in the LTC pool distribution compared to yesterday.

https://web.archive.org/web/20170406082911/https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools

https://web.archive.org/web/20170405041023/https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools

I had the thought that even if SegWit doesn't get activated, Litecoin has 4X more capacity in its blocks than Bitcoin, so it will have lower transaction fees. Yet I don't know if that would be compelling enough without real scaling.

Edit: Okay I was mistaken in thinking the activation period was only 24 hours. It is 2 weeks:

https://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/63nb70/how_long_does_it_need_to_be_over_75_before/

Edit#2: Ah I see it must be a specific retarget period!

Lock-in: If 75% of blocks within any retarget period signal support for segwit, it locks-in. SegWit transactions are now opt-in.

Activate: After another 8064-block (roughly two week) retarget period, segwit will activate, allowing miners to produce blocks containing segwit transactions on Litecoin’s mainnet.

Thus perhaps we can expect that BTCC won't throw its GPUs at LTC mining until the next block retargeting! Important find.

The next block retargeting begins in ~30 hours, and the following confirms the two week activation period:

Next block retarget (4 per activation period)

Since a retarget period is roughly 3.5 days, that means the prior 3.5 day retargeting period did not start with ~69% signaling.

So I conclude that we might see fireworks ~30 hours from now.

IamnotBack for you https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/mining-manufacturer-blocking-segwit-benefit-asicboost/ I think you will find that article really interesting.

[iamnotback]

To be technical, ASIC miner CHIP manufacturing on the 14/16nm node is in either Taiwan (TSMC fab with input or part-ownership by Samsung) or New York State of the US (Global Founderies, ex-IBM fab) at this point.

Ah yes, I remember this from when I was researching mobile-CPU friendly PoW hash function designs in 2016, that Samsung had an advantage on 14nm chips for mobile.

Bitmain in particular has shown a LOT of issues with getting enough chips to make miners with- when you have LARGE companies like NVidia and AMD having availability shortages on their new cards that they plan to sell millions of, a small company like Bitmain has to settle for what capasity is left over (and keep in mind that AMD has long-term contracts locking in capasity at Global Founderies due to the ex-AMD fabs being part OF Global Founderies dating back to it's foundation and their sale TO GF by AMD - and a lot of the rest of GF capasity is locked into IBM for the SAME reason).

So doesn't this favor my hypothesis that Litecoin's price rise means ASIC supply is constrained thus hashrate will not rise as fast as price does, and thus older 28nm stock should come into mining and it should signal SegWit, because those guys want to remain profitable at higher prices.

I see that there are still a couple of KNC Titan Scrypt miners for sale on ebay. And as the price is rising the A2 Dominators are becoming viable to mine with. I see a shit load of A2s for sale on ebay at really cheap prices ($200, etc). You can practically but them for nothing and when the price rises enough you could flip then for a profit I bet. I haven't actually run the calculation to see at what price the A2s are generating enough profit.

[coin0r]

that is really amazing 

[iamnotback]

Please tell me how is LTC not about to have a massive breakout to the upside (or to the downside?) within 6 hours or less?



Odds are better than 50% for a upside breakout but can even be a false downside with a pullback to the upside:

http://thepatternsite.com/st.html

I sold my LTC. It broke down out of the symmetric wedge. Now we have to see if it is a false breakdown with a pullback. Otherwise it is headed back to 0.0075 or below. The market apparently is very doubtful, so maybe we have to pullback and reload.

[iamnotback]

Probably my last post on LTC:

^^ Do you watch buy support? It's been building from a low of 1600 this morning to over 2100 BTC now

Thanks I didn't and I should have. I'm not a professional trader. Otherwise I wouldn't have chickened out and sold. My acumen is on analysis of the technology, economics, and game theory. Also I am reasonably good at identify the major trends.

Any way, I re-entered LTC when it moved back above the bottom of the wedge. I am in a solid HODL stance now. I will stop looking at the chart. I will not trade it any more. To $50 or bust.

I posit a reason that Bitmain's surrogate pools will stop blocking SegWit on Litecoin soon.

If you read the entire linked thread, you will catch up on a lot of the details as to why I am nearly certain Bitcoin is going to remain small blocks and never get scaling.

as Satoshi (aka Nash) intended its equilibrium game theory to be a clusterfuck of politics insuring the immutability of the protocol which is what gives Bitcoin its trust and value.

What did I miss?

Nash?

I can't continue providing links to every thing I write all over the place. But one more time, go read this thread and also this post.

[iamnotback]

Who else is tired of this shit?

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

From latest BitMex Crypto Trader Digest:

Litecoin is affectionately referred to as “rock” by many crypto traders. Litecoin has acted like a rock in trader’s bags since it hit its all time high of $40 in 2013. The technical merits of why Litecoin should be worth more than $0 are few and far between. Litecoin exists on life support only because Chinese traders for some reason enjoy trading it. Mainly that is because it is the only shitcoin the big three Chinese exchanges (BTCC, Huobi, OKCoin) offer.

During the current 2017 altcoin bubble, rock caught a stray bid. The pump and dump operators finally decided it was Litecoin’s time to shine. Rock is up almost 200% since late March.

The narrative supporting the rally is that SegWit is close to being activated. The activation threshold on Litecoin is 75% vs. 95% for Bitcoin. Litecoin is a CTRL+C, CTRL+V of Bitcoin. The slight changes include being Scrypt mined, and a block time of 2.5 minutes on average.

Many traders point to Litecoin as proof that if Bitcoin activates SegWit the price should explode higher as well. Some seriously delusional traders con themselves into believing Litecoin could actually serve as a replacement for Bitcoin if the Core vs. Bitcoin Unlimited civil war results in a contentious hard fork.

Oblivious traders are filling their bags with new shiny rocks. How do I know? Because in a recent tweet, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said they will list a Litecoin / USD pair. Altcoin pumps begin in earnest on Poloniex, and end when exchanges such as Coinbase and / or Bitfinex decide to list them.

A recent example of this phenomenon was Ether in Spring 2016. After a lacklustre performance in the secondary market from listing in August 2015 until January 2016, Ether ignited and went asymptotic. The peak during that particular rally was reached when Bitfinex announced it would list ETH. As soon as ETH listed on Bitfinex, the dump began.

Exchanges late to the party, even BitMEX is guilty of this from time to time, signal that peak fomo is near. Those traders tempting fate by holding Litecoin should be cautious. It isn’t called rock for nothing.