1.35 billion people won't adopt Bitcoin

[Come-from-Beyond]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

[1714755784]

1714755784

[syn999]

what about online service and oversea transition

[Brushan]

Last time i checked BTCChina seemed to be working fine. There have even been periods when they lead the price.

[Come-from-Beyond]

what about online service and oversea transition

It's not prohibited AFAIK. Yet.

[John (John K.)]

Apparently Chinese gold farmers still operate publicly today. I don't think this is an issue.

[empoweoqwj]

bitcoin trading is a lot easier to hide than gold farming

but hey, nobody said everyone on the planet has to use bitcoins for it to be a success. 100% global adoption rate is a bit too optimistic for even the most ardent bitcoin evangelist.

Also, China has lots of unique protectionist rules. There is nothing to say these will last forever. In fact history always teaches us the opposite.

[BTCisthefuture]

I'm 99% certain if bitcoin became too popular in China the government would clamp down hard enough that very few Chinese citizens would get involved in bitcoin.

It's true that you can't really get rid of a p2p thing like bitcoin, but the governments control over the internet in China combined with a willingness to enact hash penalties would effectively kill any chance of bitcoin ever flourishing within China.

It's sad really, hopefully someday things improve in China but I don't see it happening anytime soon.

[BinaryMage]

In most of the developed world, torrenting is illegal, and that never happens, right?

People with fancy suits and fancier titles like to utter grandiose declarations. You can choose whether or not to care.

[Come-from-Beyond]

In most of the developed world, torrenting is illegal, and that never happens, right?

People with fancy suits and fancier titles like to utter grandiose declarations. You can choose whether or not to care.

The Chinese don't have an option not to care. Because of this - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_China.

[Terk]

I think that lot of Chinese people are already trying to secure their savings outside of the country. Their domestic savings/investment possibilities are quite limited, and how long can you pump that construction/real estate bubble without starting to worry about all these ghost cities?

BTC might be attractive to them as soon as it matures enough to be more predictable and les volatile. Even if they couldn't buy everyday stuff with their bitcoins, it might still be a viable method to keep savings, to make investments or simply to transfer money out of the country to make some offshore investments. I'm quite sure that Chinese will constitute huge percent of bitcoin user base in the future.

[BTCisthefuture]

In most of the developed world, torrenting is illegal, and that never happens, right?

People with fancy suits and fancier titles like to utter grandiose declarations. You can choose whether or not to care.

Apples and oranges.

I don't think you realize the strength the Chinese government has in China and how quickly and how hard they can crack down on something and how common it is for most citizens in China to know to dare not challenge it.

In America we can speak out against anti piracy laws and torrents, we can hold massive protests if we wanted to. We can call in and flood congress with our views and desires.  In China you can't.

In China they can and do arrest/torture/and kill people for going against the government. It would be all to easy for the govenrmetn in China to say bitcoins undermines the government and throw someone in prison for life or worse if they engage in bitcoin. And you know what, most Chinese people would have no choice but to accept that due to the fact that few people want to risk those type of punishments.

[Come-from-Beyond]

I think that lot of Chinese people are already trying to secure their savings outside of the country.

I expected Bitcoin would become a medium of exchange, not a store of value.

[erialor]

In most of the developed world, torrenting is illegal, and that never happens, right?

It is  
I thought the illegal part applied to copyrighted stuff mostly  

[BTCisthefuture]

I think that lot of Chinese people are already trying to secure their savings outside of the country. Their domestic savings/investment possibilities are quite limited, and how long can you pump that construction/real estate bubble without starting to worry about all these ghost cities?

BTC might be attractive to them as soon as it matures enough to be more predictable and les volatile. Even if they couldn't buy everyday stuff with their bitcoins, it might still be a viable method to keep savings, to make investments or simply to transfer money out of the country to make some offshore investments. I'm quite sure that Chinese will constitute huge percent of bitcoin user base in the future.

I agree 100% that bitcoin is/can be/will be a very attractive thing for many Chinese citizens.

The problem is when that happens the Chinese government WILL crack down on it, hard.  And MOST Chinese people won't dare challenge that.

Like I said earlier, it's sad, but it's the reality in China.

[BTCisthefuture]

Although I live in China I'm not  Chinese citizen. I know there's quite a few Chinese citizens on this forum though and maybe the could explain better (or maybe the choose not to)  but I'm fairly confident that it Bitcoin became too popular in China the government would use their Supversion of State power laws.

Read up here:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subversion#China


That's something Bitcoin would certianly fall under if it became too popular.  And that's a crime few Chinese citizens are willing to activly commit.

I do believe strongly that China could/will kill bitcoin in China if it becomes to popular.  People who say it's not possible because it's p2p technology don't fully understand how much control and power the government has in China.

[syn999]

this is why yuan could make international currency but chinese government refuses to. so they can control their own currency and their own price.

 :-\im saying to much, they wont let me back to country...

[Stormalong]

I think it will depend on how useful Bitcoin is to the Chinese (or any) government.

Gold farming/WoW gold is not at all useful to them.

Bitcoin though, thats a pretty good way to send bribes and otherwise move corrupt money around.

[Come-from-Beyond]

I think it will depend on how useful Bitcoin is to the Chinese (or any) government.

Gold farming/WoW gold is not at all useful to them.

Bitcoin though, thats a pretty good way to send bribes and otherwise move corrupt money around.

Bribes are virtual goods/services, they are allowed.

[BinaryMage]

In most of the developed world, torrenting is illegal, and that never happens, right?

People with fancy suits and fancier titles like to utter grandiose declarations. You can choose whether or not to care.

Apples and oranges.

I don't think you realize the strength the Chinese government has in China and how quickly and how hard they can crack down on something and how common it is for most citizens in China to know to dare not challenge it.

In America we can speak out against anti piracy laws and torrents, we can hold massive protests if we wanted to. We can call in and flood congress with our views and desires.  In China you can't.

In China they can and do arrest/torture/and kill people for going against the government. It would be all to easy for the govenrmetn in China to say bitcoins undermines the government and throw someone in prison for life or worse if they engage in bitcoin. And you know what, most Chinese people would have no choice but to accept that due to the fact that few people want to risk those type of punishments.

I concede my lack of domain knowledge pertaining to the Chinese government's actual power inside their country. That said, they are neither omnipotent or omniscient - cracks exist, and they will be found. Passionate individuals will find ways around limitations. This may limit adoption, perhaps even severely, but it cannot completely stop it - and if the rest of the world accepts Bitcoin, China's hand will be forced, or economic damage of unimaginable magnitude will ensue.

[kjj]

I think that lot of Chinese people are already trying to secure their savings outside of the country.

I expected Bitcoin would become a medium of exchange, not a store of value.

Can't have one without the other.