1.35 billion people won't adopt Bitcoin

[CasinoBit]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

Just wait until a teenager dies "because of" Bitcoins and they will show his parents on the TV crying to ban this horrible technology, maybe Obama will even lay a couple of alligator tears as he takes your rights away.

(These opinions do not reflect the ones of Casinobit.net)

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[BTCisthefuture]

In most of the developed world, torrenting is illegal, and that never happens, right?

People with fancy suits and fancier titles like to utter grandiose declarations. You can choose whether or not to care.

Apples and oranges.

I don't think you realize the strength the Chinese government has in China and how quickly and how hard they can crack down on something and how common it is for most citizens in China to know to dare not challenge it.

In America we can speak out against anti piracy laws and torrents, we can hold massive protests if we wanted to. We can call in and flood congress with our views and desires.  In China you can't.

In China they can and do arrest/torture/and kill people for going against the government. It would be all to easy for the govenrmetn in China to say bitcoins undermines the government and throw someone in prison for life or worse if they engage in bitcoin. And you know what, most Chinese people would have no choice but to accept that due to the fact that few people want to risk those type of punishments.

I concede my lack of domain knowledge pertaining to the Chinese government's actual power inside their country. That said, they are neither omnipotent or omniscient - cracks exist, and they will be found. Passionate individuals will find ways around limitations. This may limit adoption, perhaps even severely, but it cannot completely stop it - and if the rest of the world accepts Bitcoin, China's hand will be forced, or economic damage of unimaginable magnitude will ensue.

it's possible some day, that's a very long ways away though. Decades perhaps.

First before we focus on something like China we should probably fix the problems bitcoin in general has now. Like lack of security and stability. Bitcoin will never be this utopia global "currency" until even the most basic problems are fixed and that might still be quite aways away and it's not inconceivable that it won't even be bitcoin that is the winner, but something else that comes along.

When and once that happens then maybe we can talk about "passionate inviduals" willing to lose their life , their careers, their family , basically everything, to fight for something like bitcoin.  China and Chinese civilians have a lot bigger and more serious issues to deal with,  I don't see bitcoin coming into the picture for at least a decade or more if bitcoin is even the main player by then.

[Severian]

People who say it's not possible because it's p2p technology don't fully understand how much control and power the government has in China.

The main control that all central governments with central banks have is the bank itself, including China. Bitcoin will slowly wear away the reputation and power of the central banks. It might take some time, but a critical point will be reached in the near future, within a generation, when the Money Power tips away from the banks and toward the decentralized models.

The police/military power follows the Money Power. As banks lose their grasp and economic decentralization rises, the police/military power enjoyed by central banks via their vassal governments will likewise be less powerful.

Have more faith in the power of consent than in the power of coercion.

[virtualmaster]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

It is not so tragical.
It is enough if 80% of the world population will become bitcoiners and the others can still decide later.

[Come-from-Beyond]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

It is not so tragical.
It is enough if 80% of the world population will become bitcoiners and the others can still decide later.

China steadily becomes the biggest economy of the world. Now it's 20%, in a decade it can be 30%.

[BinaryMage]

In most of the developed world, torrenting is illegal, and that never happens, right?

People with fancy suits and fancier titles like to utter grandiose declarations. You can choose whether or not to care.

Apples and oranges.

I don't think you realize the strength the Chinese government has in China and how quickly and how hard they can crack down on something and how common it is for most citizens in China to know to dare not challenge it.

In America we can speak out against anti piracy laws and torrents, we can hold massive protests if we wanted to. We can call in and flood congress with our views and desires.  In China you can't.

In China they can and do arrest/torture/and kill people for going against the government. It would be all to easy for the govenrmetn in China to say bitcoins undermines the government and throw someone in prison for life or worse if they engage in bitcoin. And you know what, most Chinese people would have no choice but to accept that due to the fact that few people want to risk those type of punishments.

I concede my lack of domain knowledge pertaining to the Chinese government's actual power inside their country. That said, they are neither omnipotent or omniscient - cracks exist, and they will be found. Passionate individuals will find ways around limitations. This may limit adoption, perhaps even severely, but it cannot completely stop it - and if the rest of the world accepts Bitcoin, China's hand will be forced, or economic damage of unimaginable magnitude will ensue.

it's possible some day, that's a very long ways away though. Decades perhaps.

First before we focus on something like China we should probably fix the problems bitcoin in general has now. Like lack of security and stability. Bitcoin will never be this utopia global "currency" until even the most basic problems are fixed and that might still be quite aways away and it's not inconceivable that it won't even be bitcoin that is the winner, but something else that comes along.

When and once that happens then maybe we can talk about "passionate inviduals" willing to lose their life , their careers, their family , basically everything, to fight for something like bitcoin.  China and Chinese civilians have a lot bigger and more serious issues to deal with,  I don't see bitcoin coming into the picture for at least a decade or more if bitcoin is even the main player by then.

Don't mistake me for an idealist. My point is simply that China's government has limits. Note also that there's a significant difference between advocating for Bitcoin and merely using it.

And I completely agree: Bitcoin has problems; quite a few serious ones. However, I strongly suspect that if we fix those, with a bit of luck and a bit of time, the China problem may well fix itself.

[Gabi]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

It is not so tragical.
It is enough if 80% of the world population will become bitcoiners and the others can still decide later.

China steadily becomes the biggest economy of the world. Now it's 20%, in a decade it can be 30%.

If bitcoin become mainstream and currencies begin to collapse, that 20% will become like 0%, their fiat money will collapse too.

[virtualmaster]

It is still possible to come around with something like Bitspend.net so the seller accepts only the Chinese local currency and the buyer use BTC and there is a mediator company in Hong Kong or Taiwan.

[ronaldlee0917]

The Chinese statesmen love all money-laundering tools, I don't see why they would ban Bitcoin as a result.

[Come-from-Beyond]

It is not so tragical.
It is enough if 80% of the world population will become bitcoiners and the others can still decide later.

China steadily becomes the biggest economy of the world. Now it's 20%, in a decade it can be 30%.

If bitcoin become mainstream and currencies begin to collapse, that 20% will become like 0%, their fiat money will collapse too.

This can be applied to USA which only prints money. China has a lot of resources. Yuan can't collapse to 0.

[Stunna]

Well, people will continue to do so privately and perhaps someday they will sway more moderate.

[waxwing]

The Chinese statesmen love all money-laundering tools, I don't see why they would ban Bitcoin as a result.

Yes, the point is greatly underappreciated.

There is an entire industry in Macau dedicated to laundering the money of corrupt officials. Surveys consistently show that the majority of people with a meaningful amount of assets in China want to take them out and emigrate*. Since in many cases, it is not restriction on freedom of movement that keeps them in the country (they are free to take lavish foreign holidays, mainly to buy coveted foreign goods), but the fixed nature of their assets that prevents them from just leaving. There is a big risk in trying to get money out.

Not to get overdramatic, but Bitcoin could actually bring down the entire country through capital flight.

*The point is that exactly those mechanisms which make it possible for corrupt officials to get obscenely rich are the same ones that leave them in constant fear of losing what they've gained - the arbitrary and capricious not-based-on-rule-of-law-but-only-on-connections party system.

[skang]

World GDP = 70 trillion

Let us say 99% of people DO NOT ADOPT !

Thus, if we assume only 1% of world's GDP gets to bitcoin;

1% of 70 trillion divided by 21 million of possible bitcoins

is equal to


33333.3333333 $ !!!!

Now sir, that is the price of 1 bitcoin.

[oakpacific]

Your guys need to get real, China/Chinese government don't operate the way you believe them do. 

[ShadowOfHarbringer]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

That all depends...

...On how much china really hates US dollar. Because BTC is going to undermine dollar sooner or later - it is practically inevitable.

China could get rid of the "dollar problem" by either supporting Bitcoin, or simply doing nothing to stop its expansion (very good excuse) . The rest will do itself.

[Come-from-Beyond]

World GDP = 70 trillion

Let us say 99% of people DO NOT ADOPT !

Thus, if we assume only 1% of world's GDP gets to bitcoin;

1% of 70 trillion divided by 21 million of possible bitcoins

is equal to


33333.3333333 $ !!!!

Now sir, that is the price of 1 bitcoin.

GDP <> Money supply.

[greyhawk]

I don't think you realize the strength the Chinese government has in China and how quickly and how hard they can crack down on something and how common it is for most citizens in China to know to dare not challenge it.

Is that why China cracked down on producers of fake growth hormones before the Olympics and delivery resumed as if nothing ever happened about a week later?

[Hawker]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

My business is software that is used for gold farming.  The Chinese didn't stop - they still dominate the industry.

[Come-from-Beyond]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

My business is software that is used for gold farming.  The Chinese didn't stop - they still dominate the industry.

We are talking about REAL goods, not VIRTUAL ones.

[Hawker]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

My business is software that is used for gold farming.  The Chinese didn't stop - they still dominate the industry.

We are talking about REAL goods, not VIRTUAL ones.

Whatever you are talking about, the Chinese ban on gold farming was never implemented.