1.35 billion people won't adopt Bitcoin

[Come-from-Beyond]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

[syn999]

what about online service and oversea transition

[Brushan]

Last time i checked BTCChina seemed to be working fine. There have even been periods when they lead the price.

[Come-from-Beyond]

what about online service and oversea transition

It's not prohibited AFAIK. Yet.

[John (John K.)]

Apparently Chinese gold farmers still operate publicly today. I don't think this is an issue.

[empoweoqwj]

bitcoin trading is a lot easier to hide than gold farming

but hey, nobody said everyone on the planet has to use bitcoins for it to be a success. 100% global adoption rate is a bit too optimistic for even the most ardent bitcoin evangelist.

Also, China has lots of unique protectionist rules. There is nothing to say these will last forever. In fact history always teaches us the opposite.

[BTCisthefuture]

I'm 99% certain if bitcoin became too popular in China the government would clamp down hard enough that very few Chinese citizens would get involved in bitcoin.

It's true that you can't really get rid of a p2p thing like bitcoin, but the governments control over the internet in China combined with a willingness to enact hash penalties would effectively kill any chance of bitcoin ever flourishing within China.

It's sad really, hopefully someday things improve in China but I don't see it happening anytime soon.

[BinaryMage]

In most of the developed world, torrenting is illegal, and that never happens, right?

People with fancy suits and fancier titles like to utter grandiose declarations. You can choose whether or not to care.

[Come-from-Beyond]

In most of the developed world, torrenting is illegal, and that never happens, right?

People with fancy suits and fancier titles like to utter grandiose declarations. You can choose whether or not to care.

The Chinese don't have an option not to care. Because of this - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_China.

[Terk]

I think that lot of Chinese people are already trying to secure their savings outside of the country. Their domestic savings/investment possibilities are quite limited, and how long can you pump that construction/real estate bubble without starting to worry about all these ghost cities?

BTC might be attractive to them as soon as it matures enough to be more predictable and les volatile. Even if they couldn't buy everyday stuff with their bitcoins, it might still be a viable method to keep savings, to make investments or simply to transfer money out of the country to make some offshore investments. I'm quite sure that Chinese will constitute huge percent of bitcoin user base in the future.

[BTCisthefuture]

In most of the developed world, torrenting is illegal, and that never happens, right?

People with fancy suits and fancier titles like to utter grandiose declarations. You can choose whether or not to care.

Apples and oranges.

I don't think you realize the strength the Chinese government has in China and how quickly and how hard they can crack down on something and how common it is for most citizens in China to know to dare not challenge it.

In America we can speak out against anti piracy laws and torrents, we can hold massive protests if we wanted to. We can call in and flood congress with our views and desires.  In China you can't.

In China they can and do arrest/torture/and kill people for going against the government. It would be all to easy for the govenrmetn in China to say bitcoins undermines the government and throw someone in prison for life or worse if they engage in bitcoin. And you know what, most Chinese people would have no choice but to accept that due to the fact that few people want to risk those type of punishments.

[Come-from-Beyond]

I think that lot of Chinese people are already trying to secure their savings outside of the country.

I expected Bitcoin would become a medium of exchange, not a store of value.

[erialor]

In most of the developed world, torrenting is illegal, and that never happens, right?

It is  
I thought the illegal part applied to copyrighted stuff mostly  

[BTCisthefuture]

I think that lot of Chinese people are already trying to secure their savings outside of the country. Their domestic savings/investment possibilities are quite limited, and how long can you pump that construction/real estate bubble without starting to worry about all these ghost cities?

BTC might be attractive to them as soon as it matures enough to be more predictable and les volatile. Even if they couldn't buy everyday stuff with their bitcoins, it might still be a viable method to keep savings, to make investments or simply to transfer money out of the country to make some offshore investments. I'm quite sure that Chinese will constitute huge percent of bitcoin user base in the future.

I agree 100% that bitcoin is/can be/will be a very attractive thing for many Chinese citizens.

The problem is when that happens the Chinese government WILL crack down on it, hard.  And MOST Chinese people won't dare challenge that.

Like I said earlier, it's sad, but it's the reality in China.

[BTCisthefuture]

Although I live in China I'm not  Chinese citizen. I know there's quite a few Chinese citizens on this forum though and maybe the could explain better (or maybe the choose not to)  but I'm fairly confident that it Bitcoin became too popular in China the government would use their Supversion of State power laws.

Read up here:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subversion#China


That's something Bitcoin would certianly fall under if it became too popular.  And that's a crime few Chinese citizens are willing to activly commit.

I do believe strongly that China could/will kill bitcoin in China if it becomes to popular.  People who say it's not possible because it's p2p technology don't fully understand how much control and power the government has in China.

[syn999]

this is why yuan could make international currency but chinese government refuses to. so they can control their own currency and their own price.

 :-\im saying to much, they wont let me back to country...

[Stormalong]

I think it will depend on how useful Bitcoin is to the Chinese (or any) government.

Gold farming/WoW gold is not at all useful to them.

Bitcoin though, thats a pretty good way to send bribes and otherwise move corrupt money around.

[Come-from-Beyond]

I think it will depend on how useful Bitcoin is to the Chinese (or any) government.

Gold farming/WoW gold is not at all useful to them.

Bitcoin though, thats a pretty good way to send bribes and otherwise move corrupt money around.

Bribes are virtual goods/services, they are allowed.

[BinaryMage]

In most of the developed world, torrenting is illegal, and that never happens, right?

People with fancy suits and fancier titles like to utter grandiose declarations. You can choose whether or not to care.

Apples and oranges.

I don't think you realize the strength the Chinese government has in China and how quickly and how hard they can crack down on something and how common it is for most citizens in China to know to dare not challenge it.

In America we can speak out against anti piracy laws and torrents, we can hold massive protests if we wanted to. We can call in and flood congress with our views and desires.  In China you can't.

In China they can and do arrest/torture/and kill people for going against the government. It would be all to easy for the govenrmetn in China to say bitcoins undermines the government and throw someone in prison for life or worse if they engage in bitcoin. And you know what, most Chinese people would have no choice but to accept that due to the fact that few people want to risk those type of punishments.

I concede my lack of domain knowledge pertaining to the Chinese government's actual power inside their country. That said, they are neither omnipotent or omniscient - cracks exist, and they will be found. Passionate individuals will find ways around limitations. This may limit adoption, perhaps even severely, but it cannot completely stop it - and if the rest of the world accepts Bitcoin, China's hand will be forced, or economic damage of unimaginable magnitude will ensue.

[kjj]

I think that lot of Chinese people are already trying to secure their savings outside of the country.

I expected Bitcoin would become a medium of exchange, not a store of value.

Can't have one without the other.

[CasinoBit]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

Just wait until a teenager dies "because of" Bitcoins and they will show his parents on the TV crying to ban this horrible technology, maybe Obama will even lay a couple of alligator tears as he takes your rights away.

(These opinions do not reflect the ones of Casinobit.net)

[BTCisthefuture]

In most of the developed world, torrenting is illegal, and that never happens, right?

People with fancy suits and fancier titles like to utter grandiose declarations. You can choose whether or not to care.

Apples and oranges.

I don't think you realize the strength the Chinese government has in China and how quickly and how hard they can crack down on something and how common it is for most citizens in China to know to dare not challenge it.

In America we can speak out against anti piracy laws and torrents, we can hold massive protests if we wanted to. We can call in and flood congress with our views and desires.  In China you can't.

In China they can and do arrest/torture/and kill people for going against the government. It would be all to easy for the govenrmetn in China to say bitcoins undermines the government and throw someone in prison for life or worse if they engage in bitcoin. And you know what, most Chinese people would have no choice but to accept that due to the fact that few people want to risk those type of punishments.

I concede my lack of domain knowledge pertaining to the Chinese government's actual power inside their country. That said, they are neither omnipotent or omniscient - cracks exist, and they will be found. Passionate individuals will find ways around limitations. This may limit adoption, perhaps even severely, but it cannot completely stop it - and if the rest of the world accepts Bitcoin, China's hand will be forced, or economic damage of unimaginable magnitude will ensue.

it's possible some day, that's a very long ways away though. Decades perhaps.

First before we focus on something like China we should probably fix the problems bitcoin in general has now. Like lack of security and stability. Bitcoin will never be this utopia global "currency" until even the most basic problems are fixed and that might still be quite aways away and it's not inconceivable that it won't even be bitcoin that is the winner, but something else that comes along.

When and once that happens then maybe we can talk about "passionate inviduals" willing to lose their life , their careers, their family , basically everything, to fight for something like bitcoin.  China and Chinese civilians have a lot bigger and more serious issues to deal with,  I don't see bitcoin coming into the picture for at least a decade or more if bitcoin is even the main player by then.

[Severian]

People who say it's not possible because it's p2p technology don't fully understand how much control and power the government has in China.

The main control that all central governments with central banks have is the bank itself, including China. Bitcoin will slowly wear away the reputation and power of the central banks. It might take some time, but a critical point will be reached in the near future, within a generation, when the Money Power tips away from the banks and toward the decentralized models.

The police/military power follows the Money Power. As banks lose their grasp and economic decentralization rises, the police/military power enjoyed by central banks via their vassal governments will likewise be less powerful.

Have more faith in the power of consent than in the power of coercion.

[virtualmaster]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

It is not so tragical.
It is enough if 80% of the world population will become bitcoiners and the others can still decide later.

[Come-from-Beyond]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

It is not so tragical.
It is enough if 80% of the world population will become bitcoiners and the others can still decide later.

China steadily becomes the biggest economy of the world. Now it's 20%, in a decade it can be 30%.

[BinaryMage]

In most of the developed world, torrenting is illegal, and that never happens, right?

People with fancy suits and fancier titles like to utter grandiose declarations. You can choose whether or not to care.

Apples and oranges.

I don't think you realize the strength the Chinese government has in China and how quickly and how hard they can crack down on something and how common it is for most citizens in China to know to dare not challenge it.

In America we can speak out against anti piracy laws and torrents, we can hold massive protests if we wanted to. We can call in and flood congress with our views and desires.  In China you can't.

In China they can and do arrest/torture/and kill people for going against the government. It would be all to easy for the govenrmetn in China to say bitcoins undermines the government and throw someone in prison for life or worse if they engage in bitcoin. And you know what, most Chinese people would have no choice but to accept that due to the fact that few people want to risk those type of punishments.

I concede my lack of domain knowledge pertaining to the Chinese government's actual power inside their country. That said, they are neither omnipotent or omniscient - cracks exist, and they will be found. Passionate individuals will find ways around limitations. This may limit adoption, perhaps even severely, but it cannot completely stop it - and if the rest of the world accepts Bitcoin, China's hand will be forced, or economic damage of unimaginable magnitude will ensue.

it's possible some day, that's a very long ways away though. Decades perhaps.

First before we focus on something like China we should probably fix the problems bitcoin in general has now. Like lack of security and stability. Bitcoin will never be this utopia global "currency" until even the most basic problems are fixed and that might still be quite aways away and it's not inconceivable that it won't even be bitcoin that is the winner, but something else that comes along.

When and once that happens then maybe we can talk about "passionate inviduals" willing to lose their life , their careers, their family , basically everything, to fight for something like bitcoin.  China and Chinese civilians have a lot bigger and more serious issues to deal with,  I don't see bitcoin coming into the picture for at least a decade or more if bitcoin is even the main player by then.

Don't mistake me for an idealist. My point is simply that China's government has limits. Note also that there's a significant difference between advocating for Bitcoin and merely using it.

And I completely agree: Bitcoin has problems; quite a few serious ones. However, I strongly suspect that if we fix those, with a bit of luck and a bit of time, the China problem may well fix itself.

[Gabi]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

It is not so tragical.
It is enough if 80% of the world population will become bitcoiners and the others can still decide later.

China steadily becomes the biggest economy of the world. Now it's 20%, in a decade it can be 30%.

If bitcoin become mainstream and currencies begin to collapse, that 20% will become like 0%, their fiat money will collapse too.

[virtualmaster]

It is still possible to come around with something like Bitspend.net so the seller accepts only the Chinese local currency and the buyer use BTC and there is a mediator company in Hong Kong or Taiwan.

[ronaldlee0917]

The Chinese statesmen love all money-laundering tools, I don't see why they would ban Bitcoin as a result.

[Come-from-Beyond]

It is not so tragical.
It is enough if 80% of the world population will become bitcoiners and the others can still decide later.

China steadily becomes the biggest economy of the world. Now it's 20%, in a decade it can be 30%.

If bitcoin become mainstream and currencies begin to collapse, that 20% will become like 0%, their fiat money will collapse too.

This can be applied to USA which only prints money. China has a lot of resources. Yuan can't collapse to 0.

[Stunna]

Well, people will continue to do so privately and perhaps someday they will sway more moderate.

[waxwing]

The Chinese statesmen love all money-laundering tools, I don't see why they would ban Bitcoin as a result.

Yes, the point is greatly underappreciated.

There is an entire industry in Macau dedicated to laundering the money of corrupt officials. Surveys consistently show that the majority of people with a meaningful amount of assets in China want to take them out and emigrate*. Since in many cases, it is not restriction on freedom of movement that keeps them in the country (they are free to take lavish foreign holidays, mainly to buy coveted foreign goods), but the fixed nature of their assets that prevents them from just leaving. There is a big risk in trying to get money out.

Not to get overdramatic, but Bitcoin could actually bring down the entire country through capital flight.

*The point is that exactly those mechanisms which make it possible for corrupt officials to get obscenely rich are the same ones that leave them in constant fear of losing what they've gained - the arbitrary and capricious not-based-on-rule-of-law-but-only-on-connections party system.

[skang]

World GDP = 70 trillion

Let us say 99% of people DO NOT ADOPT !

Thus, if we assume only 1% of world's GDP gets to bitcoin;

1% of 70 trillion divided by 21 million of possible bitcoins

is equal to


33333.3333333 $ !!!!

Now sir, that is the price of 1 bitcoin.

[oakpacific]

Your guys need to get real, China/Chinese government don't operate the way you believe them do. 

[ShadowOfHarbringer]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

That all depends...

...On how much china really hates US dollar. Because BTC is going to undermine dollar sooner or later - it is practically inevitable.

China could get rid of the "dollar problem" by either supporting Bitcoin, or simply doing nothing to stop its expansion (very good excuse) . The rest will do itself.

[Come-from-Beyond]

World GDP = 70 trillion

Let us say 99% of people DO NOT ADOPT !

Thus, if we assume only 1% of world's GDP gets to bitcoin;

1% of 70 trillion divided by 21 million of possible bitcoins

is equal to


33333.3333333 $ !!!!

Now sir, that is the price of 1 bitcoin.

GDP <> Money supply.

[greyhawk]

I don't think you realize the strength the Chinese government has in China and how quickly and how hard they can crack down on something and how common it is for most citizens in China to know to dare not challenge it.

Is that why China cracked down on producers of fake growth hormones before the Olympics and delivery resumed as if nothing ever happened about a week later?

[Hawker]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

My business is software that is used for gold farming.  The Chinese didn't stop - they still dominate the industry.

[Come-from-Beyond]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

My business is software that is used for gold farming.  The Chinese didn't stop - they still dominate the industry.

We are talking about REAL goods, not VIRTUAL ones.

[Hawker]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

My business is software that is used for gold farming.  The Chinese didn't stop - they still dominate the industry.

We are talking about REAL goods, not VIRTUAL ones.

Whatever you are talking about, the Chinese ban on gold farming was never implemented. 

[Come-from-Beyond]

Whatever you are talking about, the Chinese ban on gold farming was never implemented. 

Did China ban gold farming? Korea did.

[greyhawk]

Whatever you are talking about, the Chinese ban on gold farming was never implemented. 

Did China ban gold farming? Korea did.

I don't know. Why don't we look in the first post of the thread apparently by some guy called "Come-from-Beyond"

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming

Looks like it.

[SGExodus]

You guys giving too much credit to a Government that can't even stop manufacturing of poison milk powder in their country

[Come-from-Beyond]

Whatever you are talking about, the Chinese ban on gold farming was never implemented. 

Did China ban gold farming? Korea did.

I don't know. Why don't we look in the first post of the thread apparently by some guy called "Come-from-Beyond"

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming

Looks like it.

Ah, right. Now I'm confused, is it illegal to purchase even VIRTUAL goods? I would read legal documents but I don't speak Chinese.

[Hawker]

Whatever you are talking about, the Chinese ban on gold farming was never implemented. 

Did China ban gold farming? Korea did.

China banned gold farming and gold farming bots.  One of our agents was arrested and shaken down for a good 9 months of his profits.  Then business carried on as normal.

Korea banned gold farming bots.  Its still a huge market for our D3 bot so I don't think they are making much effort to stop it: http://bitcoin.demonbuddy.com/

[Skrivitor]

Avalon ASIC is allegedly in Shenzhen, China. http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/engineering-the-bitcoin-gold-rush-an-interview-with-yifu-guo-creator-of-the-first-asic-based-miner

[Littleshop]

I think the 1.35 billion people in China are going to start to be more of a driver of bitcoin then the USA in 2014. 

[franky1]

I think the 1.35 billion people in China are going to start to be more of a driver of bitcoin then the USA in 2014.  

it only requires 11 million people in the world to put in less the 2 months worth of minimum wage salary into bitcoin to make bitcoin worth $1500

heres the maths

$1500 = under 2 months wages.. 11 million people = amount of bitcoins in circulation.. ill leave you to figure out the rest.

now that just leaves the other 5 billion people(minus china) in the world to fight over the rest of the bitcoin over the next few years

[lixiaolai]

Chinese will love bitcoin.

[gogxmagog]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

don't they make prisoners gold farm in china? if so, the govt. officials are obviously using virtual currency.

[gogxmagog]

From http://legalbrainz.blogspot.com/2012/11/regulation-of-virtual-currencies-in.html:

In 2009, China outright banned gold farming out of fear that virtual currency could affect its real world currency.  As a result, virtual currencies cannot be traded for real goods or services in the country.

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

don't they make prisoners gold farm in china? if so, the govt. officials are obviously using virtual currency.

ofc, they most likely claim none of this ever happens, thus bs press releases etc. they put out propaganda (lies) that suggest their human rights policies are fair too.

[ewitte]

Preventing anything on the internet has pretty much worked so far lmao

[wingding]

Well... We shouldn't count these 1350 million people. It's minus 20% of possible Bitcoin userbase.

So more than 5000 millions remains to become users? Or buyers rather. How lucky for them that a small group of people already took the burden to produce the coins. Actually, the 5 billion new users can do with only 10 coins in total. Becuse bitcoins has the 'remarkable' property of beeing divisible.

[Stunna]

Preventing anything on the internet has pretty much worked so far lmao

THIS


I'm pretty sure china banned goldfarming, and the amount of goldfarming done in China is staggering.

[muyuu]

Let the butthurt flow through you

China is jumping aboard. Get over it.

[Come-from-Beyond]

China is jumping aboard. Get over it.

Already jumped - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=192243.0

[muyuu]

Haha. Riiiiight.

[Dharmadog]

Anyone who thinks that Chinese residences are not giving this BTC thing a go are sorely mistaken.  Will governments make it hard?  Sure.  The rumblings are out there.  I'm pretty sure that most countries don't want anyone pirating the latest Justin Beiber drivel but people still do it...