Short-Term Market Movement Discussion/Predictions

[ironstove]

It's like 2011 all over again.

Edit:

This topic used to be 'Real Crash/Correction Coming' but I've renamed it to better fit what's being discussed.

[dopamine]

welll it depends when are you going to buy in again and buy more bitcoins, because its worth alot more than dollars...

[UltimateReaper]

What do the pros think the price is going to be tomorrow morning based on the current trend?

[arepo]

haha what an epic echo bubble... which part is real growth and which part is the bubble, tho? 

[BitPirate]

It's like 2011 all over again.

Every week huh? Bullshit. Crash came and went already.

What do the pros think the price is going to be tomorrow morning based on the current trend?

No pro, but I reckon a minimum floor of 120. It's a long weekend but I wouldn't worry too much -- we came through the last long weekend quite well.

[arepo]

What do the pros think the price is going to be tomorrow morning based on the current trend?

No pro, but I reckon a minimum floor of 120. It's a long weekend but I wouldn't worry too much -- we came through the last long weekend quite well.

i concur here looks like we're going to consolidate above $120 for a little while.

[superduh]

yes, because everything in life is exactly like last time

[BitcoinAshley]

Yes, everything is EXACTLY as it was in the year 2011. Not, you know, entirely completely different in nearly every possible way, or anything like that.

 

[MAbtc]

D1 chart kind of scary looking

[smoothie]

Most of the people screaming crash are short term traders.

Nothing to see here...lol 

[Frozenlock]

D1 chart kind of scary looking

How so?

I must be blind. People keep showing charts... and all I see are charts...

[Cablez]

He is thinking bull trap with new lows approaching.  If he is right then its like the slowest bubble pop ever! lol

[glendall]

Seemed to be a lot of resistance at $130.  Looked like many a dude and dudette had buy orders in at that point. 

[MAbtc]

D1 chart kind of scary looking

How so?

I must be blind. People keep showing charts... and all I see are charts...

Just reminiscent of some other charts... I'm not an analyst, no troll please.

He is thinking bull trap with new lows approaching.  If he is right then its like the slowest bubble pop ever! lol

...how long would you say the first bubble took?

Can only tell in hindsight when capitulation is over.

[ironstove]

This is actually my first post ever claiming any directional movement, and will hopefully be my last one for a long time because after this I can only hope that bitcoin goes upwards. In the long run, I strongly believe btc will rise as I always have since 2012 when I first bought in, but when I see an imminent fall within sight, I see no reason to sell some of my holdings to see what happens in the case that a fall occurs so I can make reasonable profits, otherwise I lose out a bit, but in the big picture I've made significant gains already so I won't be bothered.

There are too many variables to list, but I have reason to believe we are on the verge of a slow and steady downward trend, what the floor is I don't know as I do not claim to be a soothsayer unlike some of you.

I don't think there will be a dramatic crash, and I could be wrong, which is why I leverage myself 50/50 anyway. In a market this easy to buy in and buy out of, there is no reason not to always have some sizable lump of fiat at hand.

[arepo]

we are indeed at a critical point, and the charts look very scary. if we break below $120, we could see a mid-term reversal, with new lows unlikely but possible. contrarily, if $120 holds here, it could be very bullish.

i feel like too many new traders were involved in the move past $130 and they all got spooked. if this theory is true, then that was just noise and we'll see consolidation here for a long while. the bulltrap was the first bounce off of $50, by my count. the second bounce had way too much volume at the bottom not to cement a mid-term low. the 'bubble' may be a long-term peak, but i doubt we're going to get action near $50 for a while, if ever.

as such, if we do move down, i suspect we'll bounce off of $90, the next critical price level.

[arepo]

There are too many variables to list, but I have reason to believe we are on the verge of a slow and steady downward trend ...

far too much buying pressure for this, imo. deflation is setting in -- in order to counteract it and stay even at least, we need a sustained selling pressure.

i can agree with everything else though sounds like you know how to manage risk. that is important.

--arepo

[dataphile]

http://oi43.tinypic.com/1zmcf14.jpg

hey guys hows it going in this thread

[arepo]

oh how i love shorting the panic....

keep dropping your coins, noob traders!

shouldn't have given them to such weak hands in the first place

[ironstove]

i feel like too many new traders were involved in the move past $130 and they all got spooked.

There was a massive, well orchestrated sale on silk road, sort of like a Black Friday of the sorts if you'd want to compare the magnitude of volume which was in operation for the past 48 hours, it just ended today and hence the sell-offs have already started. Most of the vendors are selling off their btc slowly, others not as slow. You can see this as an ample opportunity to buy cheap btc, or you can see this as the precursor to a long period of lowered activity on the btc market from a major volume source, and lower activity from HFTs.

Is this my reason to think we are headed downward short term? One of many. But that is my reasoning behind the recent drop from 160->140 along with upwards resistance as most of these vendors do not operate with the concern of holding long.

I have no explanation for the <1 min jump from 121->145 other than HFTs operating in tandem with a massive queue of trailing limit orders and panic buyers.

As I stated, there are many of reasons I believe what I believe, but I have not been this sure for a long time, at least as long as since I sold at 180 to avoid the crash at 266, or dumping in at $13 believing it would eventually be higher.

Do I think the $120 resistance will be broken? Not tonight, if ever. I could have easily overestimated the magnitude of correction as I did with the early April crash, but if 120 does break, we are in for a world of pain... and I hope many of you haven't allocated 100% of your portfolio assets entirely in cryptos.