I think something is wrong with your prediction, also you could see in this thread, mostly people will not agree with your one point and that is bitcoin is die. Why you are not looking the price of bitcoin? Everyday bitcoin price gonna high, its mean bitcoin will live long life, it doesn't mean that bitcoin is die. But i also think bitcoin should do, to improve the payment system for the people.
Yeah, i agree with you. Bitcoin will live a longer life than the expectation of others. The best proof that bitcoin will continue to live is the price of it right now and that is more than 2000 USD and soon it will climb up more, so i think instead of doubting about bitcoin.
It is better to just join the boat and be rich after 5 years.But this is exactly why I think that bitcoin is this:
"Bitcoin transaction will become less and less because its users will just hold their coins. Thus BTC would become a sort of digital asset, with no actual use as a payment system."
Bitcoin is entirely designed to become that. Bitcoin got publicity as a "payment system" and this got, with the help of useful idiots, it rolling, but everything in bitcoin is designed to become a speculative digital asset, in about similar ways as the complex derivatives that banks were playing with until it blew up in their face in 2007.
Bitcoin has some aspects that make is somewhat suitable to be used as a somewhat clunky payment system, but if you think about it, for far most payments, if they are "open and legal", it is much, much, much easier, safer, etc... to use the fiat system than to go through bitcoin. In most situations, you need MORE fiat actions to use bitcoin, than if you used the fiat system directly, and you need MORE centralized entities and trusted entities, than if you used fiat. In practice, you need to send fiat money from your bank account to a (trusted ?) exchange ; then you need to buy bitcoin IOU on that exchange ; then you need to withdraw those bitcoins to your local wallet. Only then, you can buy the stuff you want, if ever your transaction gets through. And the merchant will use a payment processor to get his bitcoins converted in fiat again. Phew. If a direct bank transfer to the merchant were used, you could leave out 2 of the 4 trusted entities: the exchange and the payment processor. You would only use your bank and the merchant's bank. And you get legal guarantees. If you use a credit card, then you only use one trusted entity: the credit card company, with all its legal safeguards. No thickfingering of the amount or something at risk. If hacked, you can call them and you are refunded. In case of being scammed, you have the legal apparatus behind you.
However, in those places where fiat cannot go, or is risky to go, crypto currencies can be of much more usefulness. This is seen in dark markets, bribery, ransom taking and so on. This is the real good use of crypto as a payment system, and this is the economic value of crypto in the economy.
The reality we see now is that the harder it is to use bitcoin as a practical payment system, the higher the price goes. This is because the price of bitcoin itself is NOT related to it being a clunky payment system. It is because bitcoin is functioning as a highly speculative asset, and its main purpose right now is to serve as reserve currency for alt coin exchanges, being itself also a speculative asset, but MAINLY serving to back up the wallets of exchanges.
On exchanges, you don't use bitcoin, but you use bitcoin IOU, but the block chain is there somewhat as the "central bank of exchanges". Only very sporadic withdrawals are needed and whether the block chain system functions smoothly or not doesn't matter much: the real token is the exchange IOU, only to be backed by bitcoins on the block chain pro forma in most cases.
MOST of "bitcoin's usage" is people putting fiat on exchanges, to buy bitcoin IOU (not block chain bitcoins, but exchange IOU), to play with it on alt coin IOU (where the block chain matters even less), and speculate like the traders do in bank front offices on clearing houses. When they have lost enough fiat, or when they have won enough, they sell their IOU on the exchange for fiat, and cash out. Occasionally, they may withdraw coins on a genuine block chain, and transfer them to another exchange or so. But mainly, bitcoin is an exchange IOU in speculative affairs. This is what makes its market value almost entirely.
The block chain is simply there as a kind of "backing" for these exchange IOU "in case". Whether that block chain works well or not doesn't matter: it only helps to define the exchange IOU on which one can gamble, like one gambles on complex derivatives.
And this fits entirely bitcoin's initial design (even if it wasn't its publicized purpose). This is also why bitcoin doesn't need "VISA style" transaction volumes. The 1MB limit will eventually force "payment usage" off bitcoin, and it will end up being essentially ONLY a settlement network for exchanges and for big sleazy business, because transactions will be expensive. The move to a somewhat higher room on the chain will simply push this transition somewhat further along the road, but in the end, the individual cost of decentralized block chain transactions growing with its user base, at a certain level of adoption, bitcoin will lose all competitive advantage as a payment system ; its speculative definition with its emission curve that goes in the opposite direction of adoption, and hence stimulates speculation like nothing else (see your own "get rich" statement, which is the basic tenet of bitcoin since its inception) makes that it will never be a very fluid currency, but will be a super speculative asset.
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