The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!?

[bitcon]

looks like all markets are down today, not just bitcoin.

I don't know.
I'm pretty happy with LTC doubling in price.

what planet are you on? LTC was 4.07 yesterday, now its 3.75/USD.   

[jubalix]

Hold on to your pants guys...its gonna get crazy.  

Secretly, I hoped the pigs were right and we would bubble up again, but every day it looks more and more like this bubble is going to pop all the way...take profits while you can guys, it may be your last chance.

Yawn, this will all be forgotten in 2 years....just operate at different time scales that's all

[virtualfaqs]

You can get upset if you like, but it doesn't change the fact that the only justification for a price rise from $20 to $260 in less than 4 months is speculation driven by media hype (not fundamentals).  This has nothing to do with negativity and everything to do with trading realistically and without emotion.

That's my way of thinking too and waiting to buy. But I'm worried by alternative crytopcurrencies. They are zapping money from the BTC price.

[Aqui]

back to 60$ 70$

[samson]

back to 60$ 70$

I think there will be a good bounce at least once or twice off $70 on the way down

[jubalix]

You can get upset if you like, but it doesn't change the fact that the only justification for a price rise from $20 to $260 in less than 4 months is speculation driven by media hype (not fundamentals).  This has nothing to do with negativity and everything to do with trading realistically and without emotion.

That's my way of thinking too and waiting to buy. But I'm worried by alternative crytopcurrencies. They are zapping money from the BTC price.

isn't that point though it unwinds the early adopter BTC in more hands, makes it more like a currency....also competition is good...may the best coin win, and it force you to hold some of each

[nobbynobbynoob]

back to 60$ 70$

I think there will be a good bounce at least once or twice off $70 on the way down

Fifty was the absolute bottom: proudhon said so. (Though he seems to have become cautiously bullish since that trough was hit upon, a bullish proudhon makes me very uneasy - j/k.)

Rationally, I think the market would be oversold dropping below $40 but rational doesn't mean anything in markets, for they remain irrational...

The long-term bull's still on if bitcoin doesn't fail though, methinks. Medium term I'm also still bullish. Short term depends on how many "weak hands" are still floating around, I guess. If the recent volatilities have "shaken the tree" enough, only a serious lack of new buying interest should tip things down much. But what if "weak hands" are still lurking and suddenly decide to panic/jump ship (again)?

As for the last day or two's drop, since it seems all markets have headed this general direction, I'd just (for now) write it off as a bank-holiday selloff. Or rather, a dollar bull trap.

[Mageant]

I honestly think it is.

I just hope it won't take another 2 years to recover.

I would appreciate a new record before the end of the year.

I think it will take some time for the Bitcoin economy to catch up to the price. Something around 1000-2000 daily transactions per 1$ in price seems to be the long-term average.

[nobbynobbynoob]

I think it will take some time for the Bitcoin economy to catch up to the price. Something around 1000-2000 daily transactions per 1$ in price seems to be the long-term average.

Yes, a good deal of the price is driven by speculation. Then again, gold is probably similarly massively overvalued if you only consider its industrial and ornamental uses and don't view it as money...

[Idaho]

I don't know, the bubbles look fairly similar to me on the charts (I do see the pattern you are talking about, though) ...maybe it will go differently this time, but I personally don't think so. 

2011
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=2-hour&c=1&s=2011-06-01&e=2011-06-19&Prev=&Next=&t=C&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

2013
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=2-hour&c=1&s=2013-04-01&e=2013-05-02&Prev=&Next=&t=C&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

If it does play out the same way, then a period of slow decline to about $80 is likely, followed by minimal movement for a while.

[samson]

There's a large wall at $80 and a huge wall at $70 - these are my targets over the coming weekend.

I find all this talk of 'weak hands' very misleading.

If someone bought some BTC at $140-150 they are not 'weak' for selling when it's obviously crashing out from underneath them even if they sell at a loss.

Only a stubborn fool would hold onto a bad investment when it's obviously crashing / collpasing in value and you can buy more back cheaper if you sell and potentially make much greater profits in the long run.

Knowing when to sell at a loss is very important thing to know. The key is to decide whether it's just a large fluctuation or a much rarer collapse.

We are witnessing a collapse in the value of Bitcoin right now.

All is not necessarily lost by selling lower than you bought for.

For example : If you purchased 100 BTC at $150 and sell them at $115 you initially spent $15,000 and end up with $11,500, a loss on that trade of $3,500.

If the price goes down to $80 you will end up with 143.75 Bitcoin (instead of only 100) assuming you buy back in at $80.

Then you only have to sell at $104 to break even and you have more Bitcoin so as the price rises in the future you will make much more profit than had you been 'strong' and held onto your initial Bitcoin like some kind of idiot while the value crashed through the floor. By the time the price rises back to your initial purchase price you will have much more profit by doing this.

So my message is : If it's tanking - dump it all and buy back cheaper. There is an element of risk but in m experience I've found it to be worthwhile.

During the last crash I held onto my Bitcoin for a bit too long and I finally sold all of them (approximately 580 of them) at about $105-110

I then bought back 1000 Bitcoin when the price was around $60 so my decision to sell and buy back cheaper proved to be a good one. I had never had more than 600 BTC prior to this so that was a massive increase in my holding.

All these guys who have thousands of Bitcoin who sell during a large movement like this aren't stupid - they're selling for a reason and they know what they are doing.

The reason is they know they will be able to buy it back cheaper.

[Peter Lambert]

If someone bought some BTC at $140-150 they are not 'weak' for selling when it's obviously crashing out from underneath them even if they sell at a loss.

Only a stubborn fool would hold onto a bad investment when it's obviously crashing / collpasing in value and you can buy more back cheaper if you sell and potentially make much greater profits in the long run. Knowing when to sell at a loss is very important thing to know. The key is to decide whether it's just a large fluctuation or a much rarer collapse.

For example : If you purchased 100 BTC at $150 and sell them at $115 you initially spent $15,000 and end up with $11,500, a loss on that trade of $3,500.

If the price goes down to $80 you will end up with 143.75 Bitcoin (instead of only 100) assuming you buy back in at $80.

Then you only have to sell at $104 to break even and you have more Bitcoin so as the price rises in the future you will make much more profit than had you been 'strong' and held onto your initial Bitcoin like some kind of idiot while the value crashed through the floor. By the time the price rises back to your initial purchase price you will have much more profit by doing this.

Except, you never know when the price will change direction, and how far it will go. What if, in your example, you purchased 100 BTC at $150 and sell them at $115, and then the price rises back to $200? Now you have no btc and $3500 less than you started with.

[Mageant]

People also have to remember the $400,000 in new money have to come into Bitcoin every day to maintain the current price.
I think this steady inflation is one the reasons why a slow decline in price after a price peak seems to be typical for Bitcoin.

[1m1nd]

If someone bought some BTC at $140-150 they are not 'weak' for selling when it's obviously crashing out from underneath them even if they sell at a loss.

Only a stubborn fool would hold onto a bad investment when it's obviously crashing / collpasing in value and you can buy more back cheaper if you sell and potentially make much greater profits in the long run. Knowing when to sell at a loss is very important thing to know. The key is to decide whether it's just a large fluctuation or a much rarer collapse.

For example : If you purchased 100 BTC at $150 and sell them at $115 you initially spent $15,000 and end up with $11,500, a loss on that trade of $3,500.

If the price goes down to $80 you will end up with 143.75 Bitcoin (instead of only 100) assuming you buy back in at $80.

Then you only have to sell at $104 to break even and you have more Bitcoin so as the price rises in the future you will make much more profit than had you been 'strong' and held onto your initial Bitcoin like some kind of idiot while the value crashed through the floor. By the time the price rises back to your initial purchase price you will have much more profit by doing this.

Except, you never know when the price will change direction, and how far it will go. What if, in your example, you purchased 100 BTC at $150 and sell them at $115, and then the price rises back to $200? Now you have no btc and $3500 less than you started with.

Presumably one would buy somewhere along the way....

[SlipperySlope]

There's a large wall at $80 and a huge wall at $70 - these are my targets over the coming weekend.

I chose the same targets on the downside. My ask at $129 went unfilled.

[anu]

I honestly think it is.

I just hope it won't take another 2 years to recover.

I would appreciate a new record before the end of the year.

Slovenia seems to be next for the big haircut. Let Cyprus 2.0 happen and bulls are back in business.

[samson]

People also have to remember the $400,000 in new money have to come into Bitcoin every day to maintain the current price.
I think this steady inflation is one the reasons why a slow decline in price after a price peak seems to be typical for Bitcoin.

Good thinking, at this point I think it's worth mentioning that the banks it Japan have closed for the day and due to Bank holidays on Friday and Monday they won't reopen until Tuesday.

So there's no new money (USD) arriving at MtGox until next Tuesday at the earliest.

[micalith]

I honestly think it is.

I just hope it won't take another 2 years to recover.

I would appreciate a new record before the end of the year.

Slovenia seems to be next for the big haircut. Let Cyprus 2.0 happen and bulls are back in business.

Doesn't bode well for Bitstamp once this bear-phase is through...

[nobbynobbynoob]

People also have to remember the $400,000 in new money have to come into Bitcoin every day to maintain the current price.
I think this steady inflation is one the reasons why a slow decline in price after a price peak seems to be typical for Bitcoin.

This point is very valid, but the market can price in this extra supply easily enough. The high inflation combined with sheer lack of buyers almost certainly played the central rôle in the 2011 post-bubble decline.

Rather than ask oneself "where is the additional $400k/day value coming from?" one can just assume that there is BTC15-20m already out there (even though it's not and possibly never really will be due to lost 'coins).

I also think the still-significant risk of BTC crashing to zero is heavily priced into the current market.

There is, however, a reason I don't daytrade, and especially not the BTC-fiat crosses. I have turned some profit arbitraging LTC/BTC when the exchange rate rolled up and down fairly predictably like a yo-yo: volatility you can believe in.

[nobbynobbynoob]

All these guys who have thousands of Bitcoin who sell during a large movement like this aren't stupid - they're selling for a reason and they know what they are doing.

The reason is they know they will be able to buy it back cheaper.

Selling in order to buy back cheaper isn't stupid, I agree. It's only stupid to think making the initial ask is a risk-free strategy. It is not: it is a wager that the price will fall. Needless to say, short selling is an even bigger wager that the price will fall...

Those who are truly confidently bearish on bitcoin (or any commodity/stock) will short sell as hard as possible, given the slightest opportunity. Right?