The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!?

[smoothie]

Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows.

I'm sorry. But to fit the current situation to this definition is more than a stretch. I feel no pessimism (let alone widespread) about falling prices, mostly hope (to be able get cheaper coins).

In what way? Prices are falling, and market sentiment is definitely down (even if you personally arent pessimistic) compare post in this forum to a month ago.

Prices are falling?



Sentiment bearish?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=69029.0 (68% bullish, 32% bearish for april)

We are in May if you did not notice lol

I did, but I couldn't find a more recent poll and you "falling prices" have started April 10th.

Is this all you got? ;-)

I just made a comment based on your sentiment argument lol...thats all buddy haha

[evolve]

About sentiment: yes, it's got a lot less bullish, the hype has settled down. That doesn't imply the sentiment is now "increasingly pessimistic" as the definition of bear market says.

The fact that the highs are dropping shows the increasing pessimism. The highs aren't going up because people don't believe that they can sell them for as high of a price as they could last month.  In other words, the price that people think they can sell bitcoins for is going down, so people will only buy back in at a lower price.

[MAbtc]

I'm sorry, I don't see a downtrend on the one-month chart.

How so?

[molecular]

I just made a comment based on your sentiment argument lol...thats all buddy haha

ah, sorry. thought you were evolve when answering. my bad.

[molecular]

I'm sorry, I don't see a downtrend on the one-month chart.

How so?

Definition of 'Downtrend'
Describes the price movement of a financial asset when the overall direction is downward. A formal downtrend occurs when each successive peak and trough is lower than the ones found earlier in the trend.

[molecular]

and:

Investopedia explains 'Bear Market'
A bear market should not be confused with a correction, which is a short-term trend that has a duration of less than two months. While corrections are often a great place for a value investor to find an entry point, bear markets rarely provide great entry points, as timing the bottom is very difficult to do. Fighting back can be extremely dangerous because it is quite difficult for an investor to make stellar gains during a bear market unless he or she is a short seller.

[Odalv]

and:

Investopedia explains 'Bear Market'
A bear market should not be confused with a correction, which is a short-term trend that has a duration of less than two months. While corrections are often a great place for a value investor to find an entry point, bear markets rarely provide great entry points, as timing the bottom is very difficult to do. Fighting back can be extremely dangerous because it is quite difficult for an investor to make stellar gains during a bear market unless he or she is a short seller.

+1

[evolve]

less than two months

Don't worry, this thing will still be going down in another month, IMO.  The bear market may not be confrimed yet, but it will be.

[Odalv]

less than two months

Don't worry, this thing will most likely still be going down in another month.  The bear market may not be validated yet, but it will be.

What about lower lows

[evolve]

What about lower lows

Not necessary. A simple 20% drop in the dow over 2 months is enough to be considered a bear market.


Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows. Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20\% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), over at least a two-month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp



That said, I believe we will be testing 80 and 50 again in the short to mid term.

[notme]

What about lower lows

Not necessary. A simple 20% drop in the dow over 2 months is enough to be considered a bear market.


Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows. Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20\% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), over at least a two-month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp

Where is the "widespread pessimism"?  Other than this thread and your posts I'm not seeing much.

[evolve]

Where is the "widespread pessimism"?  Other than this thread and your posts I'm not seeing much.

Read the thread. This has already been gone over.

[molecular]

less than two months

Don't worry, this thing will still be going down in another month, IMO.  The bear market may not be confrimed yet, but it will be.

Then we have finally reached an understanding I can live with .

Let's see again in a month or two.

[evolve]

Let's see again in a month or two.

Agreed.

[smoothie]

Can you two get a room and hash out your bull bear differences? lol 

[molecular]

Where is the "widespread pessimism"?  Other than this thread and your posts I'm not seeing much.

Read the thread. This has already been gone over.

Yes, you pointed to the ultra-bullish times and said now there are is less bull talk. Not convincing.

[evolve]

2nd post on this page

The fact that the highs are dropping shows the increasing pessimism. The highs aren't going up because people don't believe that they can sell them for as high of a price as they could last month.  In other words, the price that people think they can sell bitcoins for is going down, so people will only buy back in at a lower price.

The market itself reflects investor pessimism.

[molecular]

Can you two get a room and hash out your bull bear differences? lol 

that's what we're doing, you dirty little voyeur, you!

[SAQ]

Well' I enjoyed reading this last discussion.

We certainly had a correction, but a bear market does require lower lows as the market becomes increasingly pessimistic. I don't think, after the jump from 50, anyone realistically expects the price to reach 50 again. Even 70 has tremendous support and the last time we could not get past 97.

So, although previously I thought this might go the 2011 way, considering the above, I think we just had a very much needed correction and are now consolidating for the next deflationary move.

[evolve]

We certainly had a correction, but a bear market does require lower lows as the market becomes increasingly pessimistic. I don't think, after the jump from 50, anyone realistically expects the price to reach 50 again. Even 70 has tremendous support and the last time we could not get past 97.

Testing 50 again is much more likely than 150 or 266 IMO. Trading over 120 for a sigificant amount of time would be surprising at this point.