The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!?

[smoothie]

Oh wait, 10 days later and the market is up. Well those nuggets of wisdom sure didn't pan out.

The market is up?  The one struggling to trade over 120?  This is "up"?  Really? Really?  

The price was higher 5 days ago, but you go ahead and keep up that righteous indignation, sport.

Either contribute something of value to the thread or get the fuck out.

Depending on the time frame the market is up.

Some noobs whether bull or bear are too ZOOMED in on their 1 minute chart to see the bigger picture.

It's like forecasting the weather while looking at 1 ant.

[master-P]

It's like forecasting the weather while looking at 1 ant.

ie. The only way to forecast the weather accurately

[molecular]

It's like forecasting the weather while looking at 1 ant.

ie. The only way to forecast the weather accurately

The art is to pick the right ant.

[smoothie]

It's like forecasting the weather while looking at 1 ant.

ie. The only way to forecast the weather accurately

The art is to pick the right ant.

haha it's like LUCK now...

[Acidman]

Go look at the lows from 6 months to 3 months to 1 month etc.  they have consistently increased up until today.  We are just getting back to where should be right now go look at a logarithmic chart. we are right where we are supposed to be right now.  As for the 2011 crash people weren't hurt unless they sold and if they held until today they still be up 400 % even if they bought in at the top of the 2011 bubble.  A 400 % return in two years is amazing

[evolve]

A 400 % return in two years is amazing

Yes, it is. However this thread is about price in the short to mid term (weeks and months) for the most part. Where the price will be in the long term is anyone's guess.

[wamatt]

Man, look at the topic title: The Bear Market is on....Red candles still haunt my dreams

Every time I read it, it makes my day

Best thread title ever. Let's not confuse rigor, for emotional porn though

[evolve]

Welp, no real breakout yesterday....more indecision today? Will the slide down continue?


Looking back from the day before I started the thread until now: (6 hour chart)



Yesterdays "rally" had trouble breaking through 120. No significant movement down either....and just like that, we are back where we started.

[Frozenlock]

Welp, no real breakout yesterday....more indecision today? Will the slide down continue?

At how many % do you consider it a breakout?
I believed that if you break through the resistance with volume, it was a breakout. 

[evolve]

Yes, that was a breakout.

By "real" breakout, I meant something big enough to move us out of the larger consolidation pattern.  

[molecular]

Yes, that was a breakout.

By "real" breakout, I meant something big enough to move us out of the larger consolidation pattern.  

Didn't happen, I agree. 125 needs to be broken for new uptrend.

[oda.krell]

Yes, that was a breakout.

By "real" breakout, I meant something big enough to move us out of the larger consolidation pattern.  

That's a kind of mealy-mouthed response. Stay intelectually honest, or you're no better than rpietila when he's high on power silver polish.

Anyway.

The fact that we didn't break 125 yesterday shows that any hypothesized uptrend is far from certain. I admit that much.

But the fact that we're not even getting close to a new lower low, or even anywhere near 100, firmly puts the ball in the court of the "the bubble is not yet over" evangelists to explain how they believe the correction will play out from here.

tl;dr The original correction down trend is simply broken now. The original (mid january) growth trend is not confirmed, but still plausible.

[molecular]

Yes, that was a breakout.

By "real" breakout, I meant something big enough to move us out of the larger consolidation pattern.  

That's a kind of mealy-mouthed response. Stay intelectually honest, or you're no better than rpietila when he's high on power silver polish.

Anyway.

The fact that we didn't break 125 yesterday shows that any hypothesized uptrend is far from certain. I admit that much.

But the fact that we're not even getting close to a new lower low, or even anywhere near 100, firmly puts the ball in the court of the "the bubble is not yet over" evangelists to explain how they believe the correction will play out from here.

tl;dr The original correction down trend is simply broken now. The original (mid january) growth trend is not confirmed, but still plausible.

very well said. This is exactly the situation. Old downtrend is off the table. New one is not in sight. New uptrend also not established, but seems a lot easier to achieve than a new downtrend. [/img]



$125 and $80 are the levels to watch. When one of these is broken, a new up-/downtrend is established

[MAbtc]

I see somewhat of a bearish wedge from the bottom at 79 (although resistance is not rising). That flatline in the middle was the DDOS right? Otherwise I think we may have seen movement closer to 125. The previous support we saw at 120-125 is now resistance. Slight break in volume trend on that "breakout" but not far outside general downtrend. Not much strength to this short-term rise.

[Frozenlock]

$125 and $80 are the levels to watch. When one of these is broken, a new up-/downtrend is established

Y u no log charts? 

[molecular]

$125 and $80 are the levels to watch. When one of these is broken, a new up-/downtrend is established

Y u no log charts? 

good point, I'll check it out next time.

what's the reasoning for log-charts again? Because then you're "looking at relative changes"?

[evolve]

[/img]



$125 and $80 are the levels to watch. When one of these is broken, a new up-/downtrend is established

I agree with this.  Though, I would call it a continuation of the downtrend or a new uptrend.

I also think that the longer we stay at these levels, the less likely we are to break out into a new uptrend, because investors will continue to lose faith that the market will recover.  The fact that the recent good news/hype  (Gyft, China, ATM, etc) didn't really push the price near our previous levels tells me the hype machine is dead for now. I think it will take will take some amazing news to push us back upwards past 125.

[Frozenlock]

good point, I'll check it out next time.

what's the reasoning for log-charts again? Because then you're "looking at relative changes"?

Exactly.

[old_engineer]

The fact that the recent good news/hype  (Gyft, China, ATM, etc) didn't really push the price near our previous levels tells me the hype machine is dead for now. I think it will take will take some amazing news to push us back upwards past 125.

What do you think is the latency between actual good news -- news that truly makes a difference -- and an increase in price?

I think the latency has two components:
1) an immediate increase when fence-sitters that already have funds on the exchanges make buys
2) a second wave a few days later when additional USD hits the exchanges.

After the Gyft announcement Friday, there was a spike to $122 just hours later, and another $200k buy a little later.  I think this is an indication that the Gyft announcement is being seen as big news, and as such, there could be a second wave of USD hitting the exchanges on Monday or Tuesday. 

I don't think this means that it's about to turn into a bull market, just that I don't see the price dropping.  I think we'll stay in the $110-$125 zone for a while longer.  I can't imaging the price staying below $100 for very long -- too many people consider these to be "cheap" coins -- but going over $125 in the next week would require a whale with many millions.  I certainly wouldn't bet money against the latter happening.  There are more people with millions of spare USD than there are bitcoiners with tens of thousands of coins.

[BubbleBoy]

What do you think is the latency between actual good news -- news that truly makes a difference -- and an increase in price?

Zero. The market will internalize all news way before they take effect or even before you hear the news and have the opportunity to act on it. The best news indicator is the ticker itself, if it's up it must be China hype time, if it's down is mtgox lawsuit time.