Now that were clearly in another accelerating uptrend I think we can makes some basic assessments of the between April and now.
1) After the Gox dollar withdraw difficulty began their was a gradual draw down of available coins on Gox down to levels comparable to that which we saw at the peak in April. I'd estimate the draw down was at a rate of ~1k coins a day average over the whole period from the onset of the difficulties until now. The beginning of the withdraw difficulty also makes the reversal point for the volatile downtrend in price that had dominated after the April crash.
2) The Silk-roads closure and immediate flash-crash, flash-rally seems to have triggered a flood of USD back onto Gox which has brought it back to the level seen in the aftermath of the April peak. This seems to have been the immediate trigger for the present move up.
3) Trading volumes in USD after the April crash stabilized at volumes similar to the pre 2013 run-up period and has yet to set any new all time highs, but in the post silk-roads period they have shown their first signs of increase. Chinese Yuan trading has increased significantly post silk-roads and is now quite significant.
4) The network Hash-rate has continued exponentially increasing through the whole thing without looking back or showing an response to the price point.
I think these 4 points can be unambiguously agreed upon by all participants by simple examination of the data, I draw no conclusions from these points at this time but simply wish to get a big picture view of what has happened between April and now.
Agreed on your points. I'm particularly glad you acknowledge 4) because I remember a longer discussion in which we both participated where you took the position that there would *have* to be a "miners' capitulation" before another lasting uptrend could form. You agree now that this wasn't the case, right?
I should add though I that I acknowledge that there might still be lingering effects on the price by the extreme difficulty/hash rate increase.
I would like to add to your observations:
5) The notion of "total capitulation required" doesn't seem to hold for btc in general.
One of
the most persistent claims post-April was that, before another uptrend could form, price would have to "deflate all the way".
That's the *exact* phrase that was used over and over again.
It didn't hold true. It appears that the a) hard immediate correction to about 1/4 of April ATH, and b) the drawn out correction to the same price region that ended in early July had the same effect as the demanded "total deflation": it restored confidence that the lowest point was reached.
Let me know if you think I cross into interpretation here, but to me it seems, given the trend that started in early July, and the extreme continuation of it that began more recently, don't leave much doubt that we are under no credible interpretation still in an "April correction/deflation".
