The Barry Silbert segwit2x agreement with >80% miner support.

[JayJuanGee]

One of my pools was lucky enough to find a block in this heat and contribute to the activation signalling:
https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/block/000000000000000001190eb117434d9d2cc40a0a01bcb6ec954f16b565dbfd4e

Congrats... Great to see that your pool got to be part of a possible pivotal moment in bitcoin history....    

This activation period looks very close but I don't think it will succeed because f2pool is STILL holding out. No idea what he's thinking; he's done some bizarre flip flops in the past that have nothing to do with what he says, so I don't even know if he's holding out because of gmaxwell's issue on the btc1 git. There is still enough hashrate to activate it without him on one of the activation periods (they are 336 blocks long) but instead of it being a given it's going to be a close one based on random luck.

Could you pls explain a little more here since I understand this issue is about to better sync the activation UASF / SW2x ?

Wouldn't it be better the SW2x lock-in is to be delayed to minimize the time difference between those two activations ?

That's what the miners try ?

I think that this is a repeated theme in this thread that BIP91 seems to cause dynamics to lock in segwit, but is does not necessarily cause sufficient dynamics to lock in segwit2x (meaning the 2x portion of that NYA).  Anyhow, probably have to verify the extent to which there could be signaling that establishes the 2x portion of the segwit2x - which I doubt would even be able to sustain any kind of 80% threshold, let alone the less controversial 95% threshold that segwit is going to likely achieve within short period of time after BIP91 gets locked in.

Of course, ck can respond more regarding the portions of your question that seems directed at him... which may be all of it.. .. hahahaha

Hm, speculation; Think about sth like 'group dynamics'.  Once the miner 'community' noticed - I and I'm sure all the needed 'meetings' last months lead exactly to this -  that only together / colluding they can GO ON and even against core (and stable the price!!!) .... maybe we will be surprised?

With my recent interactions with you, I am of the opinion that you are speculating way more than me.  I believe that I am just attempting to take this one step at a time.  Of course, there may be some nee to look into the future, but I think that the fact of the matter is that we know a whole hell-of-a lot more what are the potential next steps only after verifying the passage and the particulars of the current step... Otherwise, it is my thinking that our speculation is way too much all over the fucking place if we try to assume too many steps in advance.

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[classicsucks]

Exactly as I expected, miners signalled for Segwit2x, now they slowly withdraw hashpower to prevent Segwit from activating. Is anyone here smart enough to tell me what happens if Segwit "locks" but doesn't "activate" (scheduled to be around mid-August according to my reading). Imagine August 1: BIP148 tries to take over, BitcoinABC begins mining, Segwit2x is in flux, and the world is watching...

My prediction is several bugs in several of the clients, several blockchains competing to be bitcoin, with people blacklisting and re-routing the bitcoin peer-to-peer protocol en masse.  Massive confusion with hackers profiting and prices plummeting.

On the positive side, maybe ABC will be a new chain with value. Sort of like a stock split - maybe existing coin will be worth something on both BTC and BABC blockchains... But I doubt 148Coin will last more than a few days... These morons crooning about "POW change" can do each other up the azzes...

[allinvain]

Once it's fully locked in it will activate later on in August (I forget the exact date but it's middle to end of August). Once it activates there is no turning back, but it has to be locked in before Aug 1 to avoid the UASF. So BIP148 (UASF) won't try to take over if BIP91 is locked in. We know for sure we're out of the danger zone once SegWit is actually active mid Aug. From now till then it's just more uncertainty. The first hurdle to overcome is reaching 80% signalling of BIP91.

I don't think you can blacklist the bitcoin protocol. You can theoretically block the ports it uses, but you can always just get around such measures. Also why would anyone care to attack bitcoin like that. If it all becomes a clusterfuck the media and all the other altcoins will just point fingers at us and laugh. Shitcoiners be like "Who's the shitcoin now! Ha!"

Heheh, I guess by the negative sentiment against PoW change you are a fellow miner!

This is pure speculation but I don't think Bitcoin ABC will be "the chain of value" - quite the opposite. It will be the Polit Bureau Coin (PBC Coin - pun intended), centralized and controlled by the mini bitcoin dictator wannabees 

[malami]

The first hurdle to overcome is reaching 80% signalling of BIP91.

BIP91 has a good chance of being locked in this lock-in period already, and if not once Slush signals it should be more or less a certainty for next lock-in period.

I don't like all the FUD and conspiracy theories about why miners won't actually follow through with SegWit.

[allinvain]

The first hurdle to overcome is reaching 80% signalling of BIP91.

BIP91 has a good chance of being locked in this lock-in period already, and if not once Slush signals it should be more or less a certainty for next lock-in period.

I don't like all the FUD and conspiracy theories about why miners won't actually follow through with SegWit.

Yep I agree! Back up to 80.5% and BIP91 is projected to lock in during this lock-in-period, just 80 more blocks to go at this percentage or above and we're all good!

[hv_]

The first hurdle to overcome is reaching 80% signalling of BIP91.

BIP91 has a good chance of being locked in this lock-in period already, and if not once Slush signals it should be more or less a certainty for next lock-in period.

I don't like all the FUD and conspiracy theories about why miners won't actually follow through with SegWit.

Yep I agree! Back up to 80.5% and BIP91 is projected to lock in during this lock-in-period, just 80 more blocks to go at this percentage or above and we're all good!

Good ?

Issues is the UnAcceptableSF at 1st Aug and the merging period after .....

[allinvain]

The first hurdle to overcome is reaching 80% signalling of BIP91.

BIP91 has a good chance of being locked in this lock-in period already, and if not once Slush signals it should be more or less a certainty for next lock-in period.

I don't like all the FUD and conspiracy theories about why miners won't actually follow through with SegWit.

Yep I agree! Back up to 80.5% and BIP91 is projected to lock in during this lock-in-period, just 80 more blocks to go at this percentage or above and we're all good!

Good ?

Issues is the UnAcceptableSF at 1st Aug and the merging period after .....

If SegWit activates UASF is history!

[ivomm]

Exactly as I expected, miners signalled for Segwit2x, now they slowly withdraw hashpower to prevent Segwit from activating. Is anyone here smart enough to tell me what happens if Segwit "locks" but doesn't "activate" (scheduled to be around mid-August according to my reading). Imagine August 1: BIP148 tries to take over, BitcoinABC begins mining, Segwit2x is in flux, and the world is watching...
....

On the positive side, maybe ABC will be a new chain with value. Sort of like a stock split - maybe existing coin will be worth something on both BTC and BABC blockchains... But I doubt 148Coin will last more than a few days... These morons crooning about "POW change" can do each other up the azzes...

You describe Core's plan B actually, when Segwit is not supported by enough miners. Then there WILL be a permanent POW change, so you will not be able to mine bitcoins, only the new ABC fork.

[ComputerGenie]

You describe Core's plan B actually, when Segwit is not supported by enough miners. Then there WILL be a permanent POW change, so you will not be able to mine bitcoins, only the new ABC fork.

The only good thing about the ABC code is that they

De-Coreify

the commits. 

[olcaytu2005]

This shit is getting real. I'm basically refreshing blockchain every second. Need 69 more blocks signaling bip 91 out of remaining 88 blocks in this lock-in period. We are really close.

Oh if either Slush or f2pool was signaling bip 91 already, this would be %100. (slush found suprisingly high amount of blocks in the last couple of days)

[ComputerGenie]

... (slush found suprisingly high amount of blocks in the last couple of days)

I'm not sure that 280+PH having the effective rate of 138PH is "suprisingly high"; more like surprisingly low.

[allinvain]

Looks like price is reacting to the probability of SegWit locking in! Those of you who bought at 1800~ have made a lot of profit!

Ummm, to the moon?

[Searing]

Looks like price is reacting to the probability of SegWit locking in! Those of you who bought at 1800~ have made a lot of profit!

Jihan Wu of Bitmain will "pull the chair out" at the last minute....count on it.... or hell the guy from F2Pool ..same 'stunts' they did with seg witness on LTC.

(drama with BTC always drama..its like a bad episode of 'crypto cops' ..with all the self-destructive behavior of lottery winners from a 'trailer park' )

[allinvain]

I wish I could go to China and slap them both with a very large trout! (old IRC joke  )

[MakaveliTheDon]

68 blocks remaining, 83.3% of blocks mined today supported BIP91 ... looks good

[JayJuanGee]

Looks like price is reacting to the probability of SegWit locking in! Those of you who bought at 1800~ have made a lot of profit!

Ummm, to the moon?

Maybe you did not buy any in the $1800s, Allivain?  That is why you are giving the emoji face?

[ComputerGenie]

Any trader that didn't buy at the last upper-$1,700/low-$1,800 dip isn't a trader.  

[siampumpkin]

What about the 2mb fork? Is that going to require another round of voting later on?

[mindrust]

What about the 2mb fork? Is that going to require another round of voting later on?

Don't worry; If they try to get 2mb blocks, team UASF is still here to give us 0.3mb blocks.   

[siampumpkin]

What about the 2mb fork? Is that going to require another round of voting later on?

Don't worry; If they try to get 2mb blocks, team UASF is still here to give us 0.3mb blocks.   

LOL